NFL Picks – Week Five
After a week off where Scott admirably filled in on the picks, I'm back. I've had a couple of bad weeks on the picks so far. That wouldn't be a terrible thing to say if it wasn't for the fact that we've only picked four weeks worth of games so far. Essentially I'm saying I've been bad 50% of the time and quite frankly, that is completely unacceptable. If my win percentage were judged based on my high school grading system, I would have the highest possible F.
So to the fans of D and S Sports, I'm sorry. I'm extremely sorry. I was hoping for an undefeated season. That was my goal, something I've never done before. I promise you one thing; a lot of good will come out of this. You will never see any blogger in the entire country blog as hard as I will blog the rest of the season. You will never see someone push the rest of the bloggers as I hard as I will push everybody the rest of the season. You will never see a team of bloggers blog harder than we will blog the rest of the season. God Bless.
Cleveland Browns @ Buffalo Bills
Yes I'm picking the Bills, but you better believe I have my teeth clenched while I'm doing it. For those who have read the articles on this site since the football season started, you will know that I haven't been very kind to the Browns and quite frankly, it's for a good reason. The Browns have been dreadful since the season started. Up until last week against the Bengals, the Browns offense had only mustered one offensive touchdown in the first three games. To make matters worse, that one touchdown was in garbage time when they were being blown out by Minnesota on opening day. Halfway into Week Three's debacle at Baltimore, Eric Mangini finally had enough of the Brady Quinn experience and re-inserted Derek Anderson into the starting lineup. Anderson rewarded Mangini's decision by doubling Cleveland's season total of offensive touchdowns by throwing for one and running one in against Cincinnati. The Bengals still won the game, but only because Shayne Graham booted the winning field goal with four seconds remaining in overtime.
Then we have the Bills. After losing in heartbreaking (and embarrassing) fashion on opening night against New England, the Bills beat down on the Bucs in Week Two and people in Buffalo were feeling pretty good about the team. Hey, they should be 2-0 and Edwards hit both Evans and Owens for a touchdown. Then the New Orleans Saints came to town and the wheels came off. The Bills scored a mere seven points against the Saints and those came courtesy of a fake field goal and a touchdown pass from Brian Moorman to Ryan Denney. So if we're keeping track at home; 2009 receiving touchdowns for the Bills: Fred Jackson (1), Terrell Owens (1), Lee Evans (1), Josh Reed (1), Shawn Nelson (1), and Ryan Denney (1). Yes, a backup defensive end has an equal amount of receiving touchdowns as Lee Evans and Terrell Owens.
So the Bills travel down to Miami to face the 0-3 Dolphins, who by the way have Chad Henne at QB making his first career start and Joey Porter sitting the game out. Should be a fairly easy game, right? Ummm…wrong. The Bills were absolutely blown away in Miami. Edwards threw as many touchdowns to the Dolphins defenders as he did Bills receivers. Henne didn't even have to perform at a high level because the Dolphins running game plowed over the Bills defense to the tune of 250 yards. They had 17 rushing first downs to Buffalo's ZERO. No joke, this might have been the worst loss of the Dick Jauron era. I'd confirm that for you but I don't feel like going through his other 29 losses as a Bills Head Coach. FYI: The Bills have now lost eight consecutive division games. EIGHT.
So anyways, back to the garbage bowl known as Cleveland at Buffalo. Before the season I had a heated discussion about how the Bills maybe have 3-4 wins in them this season but one of them should definitely be the Browns. I mean, the Bills are bad, but Cleveland is way worse, right? Not so fast. The Browns held their own against the 3-1 Bengals last week and seemed to maybe resemble a "professional" team last week while I'm fairly confident the Jacory Harris and the Miami Hurricanes would destroy the Bills. I've read several articles that state the Browns game could be the tipping point for Dick Jauron and the Bills. As in, if the Bills actually lose to Cleveland there is a chance Jauron gets fired mid-season. I personally don't see it happening, but if I knew this were the case, it would be difficult to actually root for a Bills victory. I want this guy gone in the worst way. So with all that in mind, I was set to pick Cleveland and either get a pick right or get a Buffalo victory. Seems like a win-win scenario. But then the news of Cleveland trading Braylon Edwards broke. One of the few offensive weapons the Browns have is now a Jet. So honestly, if the Bills lose this game, they should be pretty ashamed of themselves. I know I will be as a fan.
Dallas Cowboys @ Kansas City Chiefs
This is the type of game the Cowboys are in desperate need of. Standing at 2-2 and already in third place in the NFC East, the Cowboys need a confidence boost heading into the second quarter of the NFL season and the Chiefs are the perfect team to give them that boost. However, if Dallas loses this game, things will get absolutely ugly in Dallas. Despite not winning a playoff game for over a decade, Jerry Jones wants you to think that winning is an absolute must and he won't accept anything less. Wade Phillips has to know that he is on his last legs in Dallas.
Minnesota Vikings @ St Louis Rams
This game is right up there with the Ravens and Browns game in Week Three, a complete and total mismatch. In fact, if Minnesota wanted to, they could start Brett Favre for the first snap to keep his streak alive and then just play Tavaris Jackson for the rest of the game. Actually…why wouldn't they do this? It would be like an extra bye week for a guy who will obviously need the extra rest as the season chugs along. I mean, the Rams are the team that lost to San Francisco 35-0 last week. I'm pretty sure Minnesota can handle them.
Oakland Raiders @ NY Giants
What is the over/under for JaMarcus Russell's completion percentage in this game? 35%? 40%? I think I'm taking the under in either case. The only thing that worries me about this game for the Giants is if they are already looking past the Raiders and towards their huge matchup against New Orleans in Week Six. However, I am pretty sure Tom Coughlin and the players won't make this mistake. The really good teams usually focus one game at a time and get the job done.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Philadelphia Eagles
This is the perfect game for Donovan McNabb to come back in. He hasn't played since Week One and will need to shake off some rust and make sure his injury has completely healed. The Buccaneers are terrible and won't get an ounce of pressure on McNabb. In fact, even if McNabb doesn't play, Kevin Kolb will probably tear Tampa Bay to shreds before making way for Michael Vick to come in and get his first touchdown of the season.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Detroit Lions
This game has eliminator pick written all over it. The injury to Matthew Stafford should have a minimal effect this week because Pittsburgh is no doubt going to win the game. Rashard Mendenhall had a breakout game that was almost two years in the waiting last week and Troy Polamalu looks to return this week. In other words…easy win.
Washington Redskins @ Carolina Panthers
After seeing Washington lose to Detroit and then almost lose to Tampa Bay, I really have no business picking them for the rest of the season. Carolina hasn't been good this year, but they are coming off their bye week in which they hopefully have corrected some of their problems. Jake Delhomme is probably still good for at least two turnovers, but the Redskins are bad enough that it shouldn't really matter.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens
The Bengals have improved enough to share a first place tie with Baltimore, but that will end this week. The Ravens are pretty angry after their loss to New England last week and they will take their frustration out on Cincinnati. I was impressed with Cincy's win against Pittsburgh, but I was less impressed with them squeaking out a win against the Browns. It's something I keep saying about the Giants and it especially rings true when talking about the Bengals. Despite playing some lesser teams, the Giants are still winning by at least 10 points in those games. Basically, they are winning the games that they are supposed to win. Although the Bengals won, they barely pulled off a win that they probably should've won by double digits.
Atlanta Falcons @ San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers have been a feel good story so far but they are basically the Cardinals of last year. In saying that, I mean that they will lose to the really good teams while beating up on their own crappy division. The Falcons are coming off their bye week where they have had two full weeks to prepare for the game and should win.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Seattle Seahawks
Alright, two weeks ago I was so incredibly close to writing off Jacksonville and now I'm picking them after two straight wins. You could say I've hopped on their wagon, or you could say they are playing Seattle. Matt Hasselbeck might play this week which is a good thing for Seattle because Seneca Wallace is hopeless. Unfortunately for Seattle, even if Hasselbeck plays that doesn't guarantee that he is effective nor does it guarantee that he even plays the entire game. I said this before Michael Vick signed in Philadelphia, but why wouldn't Seattle sign him? Hasselbeck obviously can't get through a full season, Seneca Wallace is pure UFL material, and to top it off, his former coaches with whom he had the most success in his career, are both in Seattle now running the offense. This seemed like a no-brainer to me.
Houston Texans @ Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals are going to come back with a vengeance! Ok, probably not. But for somebody who has Larry Fitzgerald on almost every fantasy team and Kurt Warner starting for my most important team, I reeeeaaallllyyy need them to put up a ton of points. Check that, I also have Andre Johnson on every team that I also have Larry Fitzgerald on so now I'm really hoping for a shootout. I might be in luck. Since being shut down by the Jets on opening day, the Texans have scored 34, 31, and 29 points in consecutive weeks. Arizona hasn't done nearly as well but they are coming off a bye and have this game at home, so I'm giving them the edge. I wouldn't be shocked if Houston won though. Besides beating a terrible Oakland team last week, Houston has pretty much done the exact opposite of what I picked.
New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos
I know Denver is 4-0 and their defense has been great, but they haven't had a very hard test yet. I think we'll know a lot more about these guys in the next two weeks when they face New England and San Diego. If they win those two games, especially the game against San Diego, they are in great shape to take the AFC West. Looking ahead on Denver's schedule, if I were to pencil in two losses against San Diego and a loss for every team that is legitimately better than them, they still finish 9-7. Is that good enough to make the playoffs? Maybe. Counting two losses to San Diego in that mix doesn't increase their odds. I think basically what I'm saying is, if Denver simply splits with San Diego and coasts through their easy games, they are very much in the playoff discussion.
Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans
The Titans are pretty much dead at 0-4, but if they lose to the Colts and go 0-5 (while the Colts would be 5-0), that percentage of finished would be a strong 100%. There have already been cries for Vince Young to take back the starting job but Jeff Fisher is standing by Kerry Collins…for now. Meanwhile, the Colts couldn't have asked for a better start for their new Head Coach. Peyton Manning has started out the season with 300 yards passing in each game while tossing nine touchdowns and only three interceptions. Seriously, we know Manning is great, but who else could turn Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon into relevant names in the matter of three weeks? This brings me to the Titans biggest weakness, pass defense. If Manning doesn't get at least 350, I'd be shocked. The Titans are toast.
NY Jets @ Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins looked good last week but let's make one thing clear: the Jets are much better than the Bills. The Dolphins will be hard pressed to accumulate 100 yards rushing, let alone almost 300 against Rex Ryan's crew. The Jets are smart enough to stack up against the run and force Chad Henne to make some throws, something he will have trouble doing with Darrelle Revis roaming the secondary. Mark Sanchez finally had his "Welcome to the NFL" game against New Orleans, but he should be able to rebound nicely this week and get the win.
BYE: Chicago, Green Bay, New Orleans, San Diego
Last Week: 9-5
NFL Season: 43-19
Scott's Picks:
Cleveland Browns @ Buffalo Bills
Dallas Cowboys @ Kansas City Chiefs
Minnesota Vikings @ St Louis Rams
Oakland Raiders @ NY Giants
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Philadelphia Eagles
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Detroit Lions
Washington Redskins @ Carolina Panthers
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens
Atlanta Falcons @ San Francisco 49ers
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Seattle Seahawks
Houston Texans @ Arizona Cardinals
New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos
Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans
NY Jets
@ Miami Dolphins
Last Week: 10-4
NFL Season: 44-18
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