Are the Chicago Bears the worst four win team in the NFL right now?

(Nodding head)

Ok, maybe they aren't the worst in the league. Thanks to parity in the NFL, there are actually nine teams with four wins right now, so it's tough to argue that Chicago is the worst of the bunch, but they should definitely be in the discussion. Let's take a look at their schedule so far.

Chicago beat Detroit in Week One, 19-14, thanks to the crazy ruling on Calvin Johnson's non-touchdown. Basically, they stole a win, and I highly doubt Chicago fans would argue that point. They then traveled to Dallas in Week Two, which was impressive at the time, until we all realized how terrible the Cowboys are this year. Next was a victory against the Packers in the "chuck it up and pray for pass interference game" that Green Bay handed the Bears.

(For the record, I wrote about the Lions and Packers game after it happened and felt the same way at that time as well.)

Chicago then got their first loss against the Giants, where Jeff George v2.0 was sacked 10 times and eventually knocked out of the game. Da Bears bounced back with a 23-6 win over Carolina, who I've already established as one of the worst teams in the league. In that game, Matt Forte ran for 166 yards, which is the only game this season where a Bears' running back eclipsed the 100 yard mark. To be fair, nobody for the Bills has accomplished that yet. BUT, in that same game, backup QB Todd Collins only threw for 32 yards, 22 of those going to Forte. I actually had no idea that was possible. In the last two games, Chicago lost two home games to Seattle and Washington, while gaining a high of 31 yards and 41 yards in each game.

So here they sit. 4-3 and a half game out of first place in the NFC North. I suppose two advantages Chicago has this week is that they had a full two weeks to prepare for the only winless team remaining in the NFL and that the game will be played on a neutral field. Other than that, I've got nothing.

As you may have read in my Bills and Chiefs review, was the Bills alarming lack of turnovers. Well, if there is a week for them to break out of that, it's this week against Chicago. Jay Cutler has thrown for seven touchdowns and seven interceptions this season, so it's not like they'll be facing an elite QB. Of course, they somehow failed to pick Matt Cassel off, so I guess I shouldn't assume anything anymore with the Bills' secondary. Still, there isn't a whole lot that has me enamored with the Bears right now.

In two fewer games; Ryan Fitzpatrick has 283 fewer passing yards, five more touchdowns and two fewer interceptions than the above mentioned Jay Cutler. Advantage: Bills

With 90 rushing attempts this season, Matt Forte has accumulated 352 yards to Fred Jackson's 297 in 75 carries. Advantage: Push

Chicago's leading wide receiver, Johnny Knox, has 24 receptions and one touchdown on the season. Buffalo has three receivers (Evans, Parrish, Johnson), who all have more receptions and touchdowns individually. Ok, Parrish only has the one touchdown, so he's tied with Knox. Johnson and Evans have six and four respectively though. Advantage: Bills

Chicago's Robbie Gould is 12/14 on field goal attempts this season, while Rian Lindell is 9/12, so that advantage goes to Chicago. Although, they'll be kicking in a dome so who really cares.

Buffalo and Chicago both have returners who can break a kick or punt all the way, but Chicago currently employs the best in the league and maybe ever in Devin Hester (The U!), so Chicago also gets this advantage. For the record, I'm full blown scared of Hester. If Lindell wanted to kick every ball out of bounds and give Chicago the ball at the 40, I wouldn't have a problem with it.

The Bears have forced way more turnovers than the Bills, but I think we've already established time and time again that the Bills defense is one of the worst ever. No surprise there. However, the Bills' pass defense is statistically better in terms of average yards allowed per game, so that should count for something. Still, Chicago has the better defense.

It will be interesting to see how one of the worst running offenses in the league matches up with the league's worst run defense. I have no idea what will happen. Buffalo could actually stop them and look competent. Chicago could run wild and tease Forte's fantasy owners. The Earth could literally explode. Everything is in play with this one.

Overall, I'm picking the Bills to win. They're due. They've gone to overtime in both of the last two weeks and fell just short to much better teams than Chicago. There will be no weather affecting the teams, which is a much bigger advantage for Fitzpatrick than it is for Cutler. My only hesitation in picking Buffalo is the fact that they haven't won a regular season game in Toronto since this whole debacle started a few years ago. And really, if that's the only thing stopping me from picking Buffalo, then I'm picking Buffalo. As bad as I want the number one pick in the draft (which I absolutely do), I want Buffalo to get that one win so we can't stop debating if they'll actually go 0-16. One win isn't going to kill their chances. Just do it. Now. Please. I'm begging.



Here are my other Week 9 picks:

Tampa Bay @ Atlanta

New England @ Cleveland

NY Jets @ Detroit

Arizona @ Minnesota

New Orleans @ Carolina

Miami @ Baltimore

San Diego @ Houston

NY Giants @ Seattle

Kansas City @ Oakland

Indianapolis @ Philadelphia

Dallas @ Green Bay

Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati



Last Week: 7-6

Season: 69-48



Scott's Picks:

Tampa Bay @ Atlanta

Chicago @ Buffalo (TOR)

New England @ Cleveland

NY Jets @ Detroit

Arizona @ Minnesota

New Orleans @ Carolina

Miami @ Baltimore

San Diego @ Houston

NY Giants @ Seattle

Kansas City @ Oakland

Indianapolis @ Philadelphia

Dallas @ Green Bay

Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati



Last Week: 8-5

Season: 70-47






 

Chicago Bears

Key Additions: Jay Cutler (QB), Orlando Pace (OT), Kevin Shaffer (OT), Josh Bullocks (S), Glenn Earl (S), Marcus Hamilton (DB), Frank Omiyale (OL), Michael Gaines (TE)

Key Losses: Kyle Orton (QB), Rex Grossman (QB), Mike Brown (S), Marty Booker (WR), Brandon Lloyd (WR), Terrence Metcalf (OL),

Draft Picks: Jarron Gilbert (DT-San Jose St.), Jauquin Iglesias (WR-Oklahoma), Henry Melton (DE-Texas), D.J. Moore (CB-Vanderbilt), Johnny Knox (WR-Abilene Christian), Marcus Freeman (LB-Ohio St.), Al Afalava (S-Oregon St.), Lance Louis (G-San Diego St.), Derek Kinder (WR-Pitt)

The Bears went 9-7 in 2008, which was good for 2nd place in the NFC North and a 2 game improvement over the previous season. It wasn't good enough to earn them a spot in the playoffs however, and Chicago stayed home in January for the 2nd straight year.

Chief amongst their problems in the '08 campaign was a lack of solid play at QB. This very problem has been haunting the team for quite some now, and after realizing that Kyle Orton wasn't the answer, the Bears made a big splash this offseason. They acquired Jay Cutler from the Denver Broncos for Orton, along with multiple draft picks. Cutler wanted out of Denver as mentioned in Devin's AFC West preview, and he landed in Chicago, where the city has greeted him with open arms. The Bears believe they have the elite passer needed to propel them back to the top of the NFC and to make a deep run in the postseason.

One of the highlights from last year for the Bears was rookie RB, Matt Forte. The 2nd round pick out of Tulane looked quite impressive in his first NFL season, racking up 1238 yards rushing, and another 477 yards as the team's leading receiver. He also contributed 12 total TDs to the cause for the Bears. Forte is looking to bounce back with an equally solid 2nd season, though much of the pressure will be off his young shoulders with the addition of Cutler.

Offensively, the biggest concern for the Bears has to be at wide receiver where Devin Hester is now their number 1 guy. The other wide outs include a bunch of names that I don't recognize, and only one of them even has more than 2 years experience. Cutler could be a great pick up, but he still needs somebody to throw the ball to. Additionally, the other 2 QBs on the rosters are virtual nobodies, and will leave the Bears in dire straits if Cutler were to be injured.

Defense has long been the hallmark of the Bears organization, and that trend will likely continue in 2009. With Lance Briggs and Brian Urlacher, they have two of the best linebackers in the NFL, and DT Tommie Harris and DE Adewale Ogunleye can provide a force on the defensive line. The only question mark for the defense comes in the secondary, where the Bears are fairly young and lack a real veteran leader.

Many want to anoint Jay Cutler as the Bears' savior, but I'm not quite ready to do so. He'll certainly be an upgrade over what they've had at the position in the past, but it doesn't change the fact that he has nobody to throw to at this point. The health of both Cutler and Matt Forte are paramount to the Bears having any success this season, but I personally don't see them being too much better than last year.

Last Season: 9-7
2009 Prediction: 9-7

Detroit Lions

Key Additions: Phillip Buchanon (CB), Grady Jackson (DT), Bryant Johnson (WR), Eric King (CB), Maurice Morris (RB), Will Heller (TE), Cody Spencer (LB), Larry Foote (LB), Ephrain Salaam (OT), Dennis Northcutt (WR)

Key Losses: Jon Kitna (QB), Dan Orlovsky (QB), Mike Furrey (WR), Shaun McDonald (WR), Jon Dunn (OT), Edwin Mulitalo (G), Paris Lenon (LB),

Draft Picks: Matthew Stafford (QB-Georgia), Brandon Pettigrew (TE-Oklahoma St.), Louis Delmas (S-Western Michigan), DeAndre Levy (LB-Wisconsin), Derrick Williams (WR-Penn St.), Sammie Lee Hill (DT-Stillman), Aaron Brown (RB-TCU), Lydon Murtha (OT-Nebraska), Zack Follet (LB-Cal), Dan Gronkowski (TE-Maryland)

Wow, where to even start with the Lions. Kudos to them for pulling off what some people thought they'd never see, 0-16! The Lions were the most pathetic excuse for a football team I've ever seen last year and truly have nowhere to go but up at this point.

Unsurprisingly, the franchise is trying to start fresh this season, as the coaching staff has been completely replaced, and of course, Matt Millen is no longer the GM either. Former Tennessee Titans Defensive Coordinator Jim Schwartz gets tasked with the rebuilding process in his first NFL head coaching gig. Hell, even the logo and uniforms got a makeover for this year with a new "fiercer" looking lion, which is really basically just the old logo with some extra squigglies thrown in for good measure. I'm serious, it's hardly different, check HERE.

The lone bright spots on the field for the Lions may have come in the form of rookie RB Kevin Smith out of Central Florida, and second year WR Calvin Johnson. Smith managed 976 yards on the ground along with 8 TDs, despite having literally no help around him. Sadly, it's probably not going to be much better for him in 2009. Johnson's numbers could almost be considered amazing, considering the competency of the QBs he had throwing to him. He hauled in 78 catches for 1,331 yards and 12 TDs on the season.

Daunte Culpepper looks to be the starter heading into this season, and that's saying something. In 5 games last year, he managed just 786 yards passing, 4 TDs, 6 INTs, and a 52.2 completion percentage. Good for an amazing QB Rating of 63.9. Some are calling for #1 overall draft pick Matthew Stafford to be thrust into the starting spot, but that's a tricky proposition at best. Rarely are rookie QBs ready to start right away, and with the atrocious team around him, it would only compound that issue. Stafford's career could be out the window before it ever really gets a chance to start if he's pushed into a position where he's so clearly destined to fail.

Defensively, it isn't much better for Detroit. Last season, the team gave up by far a league worst 517 points. Additionally, the offense was near the bottom of the league scoring just 268 points. For those of you who don't want to do the math, the average score of a Detroit Lions game last year was 17-32. The Lions might find their defense improved since their new head coach is well known for his knowledge on that side of the ball, but it's going to be a long hard struggle for the Lions to crawl out of the basement. I don't see them going 0-16 again, but it's not going to be that far away.

Last Season: 0-16
2009 Prediction: 2-14

Green Bay Packers

Key Additions: Anthony Smith (S), Duke Preston (OL), Brian Soi (DT), Stryker Sulak (LB)

Key Losses: Mark Tauscher (OL), Colin Cole (DT), Kenny Pettway (DE), J.J. Jansen (LS), Brennan Carvalho (OL)

Draft Picks: B.J. Raji (DT-Boston College), Clay Matthews (LB-USC), T.J. Lang (OL-Eastern Michigan), Quinn Johnson (FB-LSU), Jamon Meredith (OL-South Carolina), Jarius Wynn (DE-Georgia), Brandon Underwood (CB-Cincinnati), Brad Jones (LB-Colorado)

The Green Bay Packers haven't changed much in terms of personnel on their roster from last year's 6-10 season, but the team will have a bit of a different look for the 2009 season. After struggling on defense last year, Head Coach Mike McCarthy replaced much of the defensive coaching staff and brought on Dom Capers as his coordinator. Capers has a long background in the NFL including 2 head coaching stints and multiple jobs as a defensive coach.

Capers first act was to make the switch from a 4-3 defense over to the 3-4 for the upcoming season. Much of the league has reverted back to this defensive style in the past few years and it seems to work well for many teams. #1 draft pick B.J. Raji looks to cement the 3 man line as the team's new defensive tackle, while star pass rusher Aaron Kampman makes the move from DE to OLB in the new scheme. Clay Matthews was also picked in the first round by Green Bay and could see starting time at the other OLB position, while 4th year LB, A.J. Hawk looks to permanently move to the middle in the 3-4 setup.

The offensive side of the ball is less of a concern for the Packers as they have some good talent at the skill positions. Aaron Rodgers is coming off a 4,038 yard passing season, in which he threw for 28 TDs, both were good enough for 4th best in the NFL. On the other end of those passes are Greg Jennings (80 receptions, 1292 yards, 9 TDs) and Donald Driver 74 receptions, 1012 yards, 5 TDs). Complimenting the passing game is RB Ryan Grant who is entering his 3rd season, coming off a 1,203 yard season where he found the end zone 4 times. Only 3 teams in the NFL averaged better than the Packers 26 points per game, so if they can fix their problems on defense, they should be in good shape for 2009.

I personally think the NFC North could really be up for grabs this season as no one team stands out about the others, well, except for the Lions. I'm comfortable in saying they will be in the division basement again this season. The Packers could find themselves battling for a division title late in the year if they can pick up the defensive side of the ball.

Last Year: 6-10
2009 Prediction: 9-7

Minnesota Vikings

Key Additions: Sage Rosenfels (QB), Glenn Holt (WR), Karl Paymah (CB)

Key Losses: Darren Sharper (S), Matt Birk (C), Gus Frerotte (QB), Maurice Hicks (RB)

Draft Picks: Percy Harvin (WR-Florida), Phil Loadholt (OT-Oklahoma), Asher Allen (CB-Georgia), Jasper Brinkley (LB-South Carolina), Jamarca Sanford (S-Mississippi)

The Minnesota Vikings have probably seen more of the offseason spotlight than any other team in the NFL, due to the never ending saga known as Brett Favre. Favre hinted at a possible return and Minnesota was the chosen destination. Months later after many changes of the mind, and will he, won't he moments, Favre announced on July 28th that he would not return to the league because he couldn't handle the day in and day out duties associated with it. This left the Vikings finally able to move forward with the process of deciding who their starting QB would be this season, at least until Favre gets bored of hunting, fishing, and wearing Wranglers in late October/early November.

Minnesota brought in Sage Rosenfels via a trade with the Houston Texans to compete for the job alongside Tarvaris Jackson. Jackson saw significant time in 6 regular season games last year, along with the Vikings Wild Card loss to Philadelphia. Along the way he threw for just over 1,000 yards and had 9 TDs with only 2 INTs, good enough for a 95.4 passer rating. Jackson was solid while he was at the helm, but bringing in Rosenfels shows that the Vikings organization isn't sold just yet. Rosenfels also played in 6 games for Houston last season, throwing for 1,431 yards and 6 TDs, with 10 INTs.

The two are very different in terms of style as Rosenfels is a traditional pocket passer, while Jackson likes to move around and has very good mobility. The question is which style the Vikings think works best for them. In all honesty, it should be a competition to see who wins the starting job, but neither of them are anything special. The team's star running back is however, very special indeed. Adrian Peterson has had started his career with two very impressive seasons, including piling up 1,760 yards rushing and 10 TDs in the 2008 season. Peterson is pretty much the reason the Vikings won the division and made the postseason last year, and if they manage to do so again this year, it'll likely be because of him as well.

Rookie Percy Harvin adds another dimension at receiver across from Bernard Berrian and could also play a key role in special teams as a return man. Harvin is lighting quick and certainly has big play capability. On defense, the Vikings have one of the best lines in football with Pat and Kevin Williams plugging up the middle at the tackle positions, while Jared Allen is one of the best pass rushers in all of the league at defensive end. He's coming off a 14.5 sack season in 2008. Behind them however, the defense falls off a bit as they lack true play makers at LB and in the secondary. CB Antoine Winfield is still solid entering his 11th season and earned himself a large contract extension in the offseason, but after that, there just isn't much there.

The Vikings should have the inside track to another division title, but could face increased competition from both the Bears and Packers this year. Hopefully they are able to put the Brett Favre mess behind them and choose a starting QB who can lead them back to the postseason, but only time will tell.

Last Season: 10-6
2009 Prediction: 10-6