NHL Preview - Eastern Conference
Yesterday Devin brought you a look at the upcoming season for the Western Conference. Today, I'll guide you through the East as we get ready for the puck to drop tonight on yet another year of NHL action, though if you have DirecTV, you likely won't even see it. Yes, added to the long list of problems the NHL faces in trying to remain a viable entity in the US is the fact that major TV provider is in a dispute with one of the largest providers of programming, and therefore will not be shown until a resolution is reached. But that's a story for a different time perhaps. On to a breakdown of all the teams in the East and my stab at predicting who will reach the postseason, as well as a potential Stanley Cup representative.
Atlantic Division
New Jersey Devils - The Devils won the division last year with a solid 103 points and hit the playoffs as the #3 seed, but all those happy feelings vanished quickly as they were ousted in 7 games by the Carolina Hurricanes in the 1st round. Coach Brent Sutter hit the bricks and headed out to Calgary to lead the Flames this season. The Devils then brought back former coach and 1995 Stanley Cup Winner Jacques Lemaire from Minnesota to try and rekindle their winning ways. That likely means the trap will be back in it's full glory, making the Devils almost impossible to watch on a nightly basis.
New Jersey lost star right winger Brian Gionta via free agency, but his numbers over the last 3 years were nowhere near those of his breakout season in 05-06. Long time Devil John Madden also departed the team in the offseason, taking his 10 years experience and heading to a young Chicago team. Finally, goaltender Scott Clemmensen, who did a remarkable job of filling in for an injured Marty Brodeur last year, earned himself a sizeable pay day with the Florida Panthers. In terms of additions, the Devils didn't do a whole lot with the offseason, with Rob Neidermayer coming back to New Jersey on a one year contract probably being the highlight.
The Devils were one of the best teams in the East last year, despite their all world goaltender missing significant time with a busted up elbow, but it meant nothing come the postseason. They have one of the most exciting offensive players in hockey when it comes to Zach Parise, but their offense may sputter after that. With Lemaire and the trap back, and Brodeur healthy, it's going to be a flashback to years gone by as the Devils try to use defense to their advantage and pull out low scoring games on a nightly basis. It may be successful to some extent, but I expect to see a drop off in terms of standings this year.
Pittsburgh Penguins - The defending Stanley Cup Champions return, hoping to make a 3rd straight trip to the Finals this season. Pittsburgh edged out Philadelphia at the end of last season for the #4 spot and earned themselves home ice in the first round matchup. After getting past the Flyers, they then dispatched of the Capitals in a fantastic 7 game series and finally swept the Hurricanes to meet up with Detroit in a rematch for the Cup. 7 more exciting games later, the Penguins had their first title since 1992.
The offseason didn't bring a great deal of chance as some role players left and some were brought aboard. The most notable move each was probably Rob Scuderi leaving to sign with the Kings, while veteran defenseman Jay McKee signed a modest 1 year deal to suit up in the black and gold. McKee's best years are past him and he's had a history of injury problems, but if healthy, he's a solid player at a cheap price.
The core remains solidly in tact for Pittsburgh, and all still quite young as well. Goalie Marc-Andre Fleury has thrown his name into the ranks amongst the best in the league at this point. The Penguins also have perhaps the best group of centers in the league with Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Jordan Staal, none of which are older than 23. The Pens have these three plus Fleury locked up together through the 2012-2013 season and the possibilities are scary as to how good they could be. For all the hype surrounding Crosby as the golden boy of the NHL, I still maintain that Malkin is the better player at this point. He won the Conn Smythe as the playoff MVP last year as well as the Art Ross Trophy for leading the league in points.
With a solid surrounding cast still around these 4 young superstars for the next 2 years or so, it won't be a surprise to see them take another run or two at the Cup. Pittsburgh will surely be back in the postseason this year, and will likely be playing deep in them as well.
Philadelphia Flyers - The Flyers made the postseason for the 2nd consecutive year in 08-09, finishing 5th in the East and battling in state rivals Pittsburgh in the first round of the playoffs. The Flyers couldn't hang with the eventual champs and are now looking to build on a fairly successful season as they head into 09-10. The Flyers were one of the more offensively talented teams last year, and spent their offseason trying to bolster other areas to improve their squad.
The first move Philly made was to sign goaltender Ray Emery from the depths of the Russian KHL and bring him back the NHL where he formerly played for Ottawa. Emery is a big gamble in my book, as he never showed me a ton of promise in his previous stint in the league, often looking shaking between the pipes. It's a one year deal, so it's probably all or nothing for Emery this year, perhaps the pressure will help him to excel, but I'm kind of doubting it. They signed their insurance policy soon after, bringing back Brian Boucher from San Jose, where he put up decent numbers in backup duty last year. He's never proven himself as a full time starter however.
Besides departing goaltenders Marty Biron and Antero Niittymaki, the Flyers also lost Mike Knuble and his 27 goals and 20 assists to the Washington Capitals. Gone also is Joffrey Lupul (25 G, 25 A) to Anaheim, but the Flyers brought in defensemen Chris Pronger in return. Pronger's resume is impressive, including 5 All Star Games, the 2000 Norris and Hart Trophies, as well as winning a Cup in 2007. Pronger has always been a very good scoring defenseman, but is now 34 years old and the Flyers signed him to a 7 year extension, paying him almost $5 million/year into his 40s. Pronger should fit in well and give the D a big boost in Philly, but the length of the deal seems kind of silly to me.
It all comes down to goaltending for me when figuring out how Philly will fare this year. Pronger boosts the D, while Jeff Carter, Mike Richards, and Simon Gagne are all solid up front. The Flyers are finally hoping a healthy Daniel Briere can live up to his massive contract and produce consistently in the place of Knuble and Lupul, but now in his 30s, it doesn't seem likely. If Emery can be solid for Philly, they'll find themselves in the middle of the playoff hunt yet again, but if he goes back to his shaky ways, this could be a long year in the City of Brotherly Love.
New York Rangers - The Rangers squeaked their way into the playoffs as the 7th seed last season, but were dispatched by the Capitals in 7 games. This year, they will look to make a 5th straight trip to the playoffs, and perhaps even do something once they get there. It wouldn't be a Rangers offseason without some ridiculous contracts flying around, and this summer didn't disappoint.
The Rangers started off with something that seemed rather intelligent, unloading the outlandish contract they gave Scott Gomez in 2007 at nearly $7.5 million/year to Montreal in a trade, getting quietly solid Chris Higgins in return. Brilliant right? They got rid of a huge cap hit for a guy that couldn't maintain his production from his time in New Jersey and got solid and much cheaper player in return. But then of course, this is the Rangers, a splash had to be made. Marion Gaborik was signed away from Minnesota and promptly handed a $7.5 million/year contract himself, payable for the next 5 years. No doubt Gaborik is a highly explosive offensive player, but he is also highly injury prone. He's averaged just 52 games per season over the last 4 years, though he does bring just over 57 points/season during that span as well. So, he scores more than a point a game when he's on the ice, but will he stay there?
Luckily for the Rangers, they do have one of the best goaltenders in the league in Henrik Lundqvist. He is probably the main reason the Rangers made the postseason to begin with last year, as the team scored the 2nd fewest goals in the Eastern Conference. Lundqvist had a 2.43 GAA in 70 games last season for the Rangers and will need to put up similar numbers this season. Add him to the long list of guys to watch during the Olympics this year, as the Rangers really don't have anything behind him and need him to stay healthy to have any chance at all of getting back to the postseason.
New York Islanders - Where do you even start with the Islanders? They were hands down the worst team in the league last season, which I guess can be a plus considering they got the #1 draft pick and snagged the highly coveted John Tavares from the Ontario Hockey League, where he put up numbers like 72 goals and 62 assists in 67 games in 06-07. He's clearly a talent, but he'll be drowning in a sea of awful this year. He should produce decent numbers on a team where defenseman Mark Streit lead the team in scoring last season. (at least I hope, since he's on my fantasy team!)
Beyond that, the biggest thing I can say about the Islanders is that they are approximately $19 million under the salary cap this season, in desperate need of a new arena, and average under 14k fans per game. They are a team nobody really pays attention to unless your team happens to lose to them, at which point you stop and ask yourself how? The Islanders have a fairly safe lock on the cellar again this season, which will allow them to acquire another top draft pick and little else. This franchise hasn't mattered at all since the lockout and barely mattered before that. The last time they won a playoff series was 1993 and nothing is going to change anytime soon it seems.
Northeast Division
Boston Bruins - The Bruins were the cream of the crop in the East last season, finishing with 116 points and just missing out on the President's Trophy for the best record in the NHL. After wiping the floor with Montreal in a 4 game sweep, the Bruins had their hearts broken in multiple ways, losing to Carolina in 7 games. Scott Walker of the Canes, who sucker punched Boston's Aaron Ward in Game 5, but was not suspended, scored the winning goal late in the first overtime of Game 7 and ended the Bruins' magical year. In an interesting twist of fate, Ward was traded to Carolina in the offseason and will now be teammates with Walker... should make for quite the interesting team dynamic.
The Bruins got it done with defense and goaltending primarily last season, giving up the fewest goals in the league. Goalie Tim Thomas found a new lease on life it seemed as he had what was by far a career best year, allowing just 2.10 goals/game and earning himself the Vezina Trophy in the process. The question is can he repeat the peformance? It's a bit unusual for a goaltender to wait until his mid 30s to play his best hockey, but that's what Thomas did. It doesn't hurt to have guys like Zdeno Chara and Dennis Wideman in front of you though on defense.
That's not to say the Bruins can't score either, as they netted 274 goals last season, trailing only Detroit. Guys like Marc Savard and David Krejci put up great numbers like last year, and the Bruins forward lines roll deep. The most curious move of the summer for the Bruins however is letting Phil Kessel go. The 21 year old had 36 goals and 24 assists in a breakout year last season, but was traded to Toronto after being unable to reach an agreement in Boston.
Boston should have no trouble being successful again this season, though Tim Thomas will absolutely have to stay healthy and have another solid year in between the pipes. Yet another of those goalies to look out for later in the year as he's expected to battle Ryan Miller for the spot of the United States #1 goalie for the Olympics. At 35, Thomas is no spring chicken and the added games might take a toll.
Montreal Canadiens - Les Habitants sqeaked into the playoffs last year, narrowing grabbing the last spot over the Panthers, only to be run over by a Boston steamroller in the first round. How will the Canadiens try to build on last year? By completely blowing up the team of course! I would compare Montreal's offseason to a Dr. Seuss book... It made absolutely no sense at all, but it was pretty fun to check out just the same.
Gone are: Mike Komisarek, Alexei Kovalev, Saku Koivu, Alex Tanguay, and Matthieu Schneider via free agency, as well as Christopher Higgins via trade. In now are: Michael Cammalleri, Hal Gill, Brian Gionta, Jaroslav Spacek, and Scott Gomez. Also gone is a boatload of money. Those 5 new acquisitions are on the books for just about $25 million of cap space this season. Tack on another $11.25 million for the contracts of Andrei Markov and Roman Hamrlik and you've got $36 million tied up in 7 players this season and it's the same next year. Not only is that outrageous money for a handful of players, sadly, most would concure that none of them are really worth it.
Gionta and Gomez won a Cup together in New Jersey, but their numbers have been dwindling the past few seasons. Spacek got paid $11.5 million over 3 years after 3 lackluster seasons in Buffalo where he was decent, but not to the tune of nearly 4 million a year. Gill did win a Cup last year in Pittsburgh, but only racked up 10 points on the year, his contract is not as gaudy, but considering he will be at best the #4 d-man, it's still a bit much. Cammalleri may have been the lone one to earn his payday. He put up 39 goals and 43 assists in Calgary last year and was consistent in LA before that as well.
Montreal is coming off as desperate to me. They have a rabid fan base and know they have to do something to appease them. They last won the Stanley Cup in 1993 and haven't made it past the 2nd round of the playoffs since. Throwing a ton of cash at slightly above average players isn't going to get the job done. Montreal will be lucky to make the playoffs this year in a very tough Eastern Conference where there is a ton of parity and it's going to be a scrap to find yourself in the Top 8 at the end of the season.
Buffalo Sabres - I'm not going to spend a ton of time on the Sabres as Devin fully previewed the team already, check it out HERE. I will add a few thoughts however. The Sabres likely would have made the postseason last year had Ryan Miller and Thomas Vanek stayed healthy, but came up just short instead. They addressed their main issue of a lack of toughness by bringing in guys like Steve Montador and Mike Grier, but I'm not sure it was enough. Talented young forwards like Vanek, Derek Roy, and Jason Pominville need to produce at a high rate this year as they are all being paid like top level guys.
The glaring question mark for this team remains the defense. Several youngsters are looking to prove themselves while veterans like Rivet and Montador need to be solid on the ice as well as leaders both on and off. The biggest issue falls on two heads, Toni Lydman and Henrik Tallinder. Since being perhaps the Sabres best pairing a few seasons ago, both have become major disappointments as of late. Buffalo practiced addition by subtraction this offseason when they let Max Afinogenov, Jaro Spacek, and Teppo Numminen walk, Lydman and Tallinder may be next in line with that theory.
The Sabres have what it takes to get back into the postseason this year, and as long as Miller holds up, they should find themselves in that position. My doubts lie in whether they can actually make any noise once they get there though. Miller is the key to everything as he is one of the best in the league when on top of his game. While I'd love to see him represent the US as the top goalie in the Olympics, his durability is a huge concern to me as a Sabres fan.
Ottawa Senators - Ottawa has fallen hard as of late, going from Stanley Cup finalist in 2007, to first round sweep victims in 2008, to 83 points and 11th in the Conference in 2009. If this offseason is any indication, things aren't going to get a lot better. Star forward Dany Heatley made it known he wasn't pleased with his playing time at the start of the offseason and wanted out of Ottawa. GM Bryan Murray had difficulty finding a deal to his liking for most of the offseason, but finally in mid September a partner was found.
Heatley was sent to the San Jose Sharks in exchange for Jonathan Cheechoo primarily. Officially signaling the end of the Heatley/Spezza/Alfredsson line, causing Sabres fans to rejoice. Heatley's 39 goals and 33 assists were a bit of a down year for him, and may not be entirely missed. Cheechoo's numbers have dropped off year after year since his stunning 56 goal season in 05-06, but the Senators did sign Alexei Kovalev from Montreal as well. He brings 65 points in 80 games with him at a $5 million/year for the next 2 years cost.
As is usual with Ottawa, the top line brings all the scoring and it drops off dramatically after that. Defense and goaltending has been the concern as of late. The Sens brought over Pascal Leclaire from Columbus at the trade deadline last year and he is expected to assume the role of starter this season. Leclaire had a solid run in 07-08 with the Blue Jackets but was supplanted by the top rookie in the league last year, Steve Mason. Leclaire is a big question mark in my book and if he doesn't succeed, it's going to be a long season in Ottawa, likely without a playoff berth as well.
Toronto Maple Leafs - Remember when the Maple Leafs mattered in the NHL? No... me neither. Ok, so that's only partially true. Before the lockout, the Leafs were pretty much an annual contender and made some noise in the playoffs most years. Of course, they haven't been in the Cup Finals since they last won it, which was 1967. And of course, you have to keep in mind that at that time, only 8 teams even existed, so it wasn't quite the accomplishment it is today. At any rate, since the NHL resumed play in 2005, the Leafs haven't sniffed the playoffs at all and I don't think 2009-2010 is about to change in that department.
The Leafs finished 12th in the East last year and had a pretty lousy season all the way around. You may remember their starting goaltender was Swiss Cheese... wait no, I mean Vesa Toskala, or maybe Curtis Joseph... Martin Gerber? Oh wait, it was Justin Pogge... Regardless of who was actually in the net, so was the puck more often than not. The Leafs gave up 293 goals last year, easily the worst in the NHL. So what did Toronto do to address this situation? Signed Jonas Gustavsson from the Swedish Pro League to back up Toskala. That will surely cure what ails them right?
Toronto did go out and sign Mike Komisarek from Montreal to a healthy deal to help bolster their defense and also traded for Phil Kessel from Boston. Kessel is very young and has a great offensive skill set which will certainly help a Leafs offense that averaged right around 3 goals/game last season. However, Kessel is still recovering from shoulder surgery and is likely out until sometime in December. I rip on Toronto a great deal because they're a major rival to Buffalo, and it drives me nuts that they pack so many fans into our arena all the time, but in all honesty they deserve better. The Leafs are going to have another lousy season ahead of them and have just about no chance at making the playoffs yet again. Something major needs to be done there to turn the team around and Kessel is a good first step, but he'll need plenty of help.
Southeast Division
Washington Capitals - The Capitals finished 08-09 with the best regular season in franchise history, amassing 108 points and capturing the 2nd seed in the East. They also won a playoff series for the first time since their run to the Cup Finals in back in 1998. Washington seems to be taking the approach that they were close last year and meddling with success won't do them any favors. To that end, they only had one major change in the offseason, signing free agent Mike Knuble from Philadelphia. At 37, he brings some veteran leadership to a fairly young team and in addition to his consistent scoring ability, he's a little more hard nosed than the Caps current lineup.
Washington has the single most skilled player in the NHL when it comes to Alexander Ovechkin. The 24 year old Russian is coming off back to back Hart Trophy seasons as the league's MVP as well as consecutive Rocket Richard Trophies for leading the NHL in goals. Last year he racked up 56 goals and 54 assists during the regular campaign and added another 11 and 10 in 14 playoff games. Simply put, he's worth every cent of the 13 year, $124 million contract he signed in 2008. Anybody who has seen him play cannot deny his skills, nor the passion with which he plays the game. It's the latter that gets him in a little trouble here and there and the reason Crosby is the face of the league instead, but it's also the latter that makes him so damn fun to watch.
It's not all about Ovechkin though. Last year Washington started to figure out the puzzle and show they had the right pieces around him. Guys like Nick Backstrom and Alex Semin are ultra talented as well and help the Caps light the lamp to the tune of over 3.3 goals/game, barely trailing the Bruins for tops in the league last year. Add in high scoring defenseman Mike Green to the mix as well as he contributed 31 goals and 42 assists last year. It's not the scoring that concerns me in the least with the Capitals though. They gave up goals at a pretty high clip also last year and still have questions marks in their defense, and more particularly at the goalkeeper spot.
Semyon Varlamov had his official coming out party in the playoffs last year. After going 4-0-1 in the regular season, Varlamov took over for Jose Theodore in Game 2 of the first round series with the Rangers and finished the playoffs with a 7-6 record. The 21 year old looks to take over the starting job permanently this year and if he can play solidly, the Caps will have no trouble finding themselves back near the top of the East.
Carolina Hurricanes - I think I've made it abundantly clear in the past how I feel about my adopted hometown Carolina Hurricanes, or more pointedly, their "diehard fans" who don't even sell out playoff games, so I'll try to keep my bias tucked away for the remainder of this section. The Hurricanes struggled for much of last season but got red hot down the stretch and managed to grab the 6 seed in the postseason. They continued to play extremely well all the way to the Eastern Conference Finals, where the lucky bounces ran out and a much better team swept them back to Raleigh for the summer.
Carolina didn't make much in the way of moves this offseason, but instead focused on re-signing many of their own guys, including: Jussi Jokinen, Erik Cole, Chad LaRose, and Tuomo Ruutu. They also obtained veteran defenseman Aaron Ward from Boston, bringing him back to the site of one of his three Stanley Cup titles. Also placing him on the same team as the man who sucker punched him in last year's playoffs, as I mentioned in the Boston preview. Not sure how that dynamic is going to work out, but I suppose they don't have to really like each other.
The Hurricanes have a very veteran team with a great deal of playoff experience and are lead by two star players. Eric Staal is only 24 but already has 3 All Star Games and a Stanley Cup Championship under his belt. He posted 40 goals and 35 assists last year and is solid year in and year out for Carolina. Cam Ward tends the goal for the Hurricanes and does it quite well for the most part. Only 25 himself, Ward has a Cup as well as the Conn Smythe Trophy as the playoff MVP for that same year. Ward had a career best 2.44 GAA last season along with 6 shutouts and a 3rd straight season with at least 30 wins.
If the Hurricanes can avoid their usual mid season slump this year, it would do them a lot of favors in the long run. They got hot at the right time last year and made a deep run in the playoffs, but they could easily be a 4 or 5 seed in the East if they played consistently all year. At any rate, expect them to be back in the playoffs again this year, though I don't think they'll make it back to the Eastern Conference Finals.
Florida Panthers - I'm willing to bet that you don't remember that the Florida Panthers made it to the Stanley Cup Finals in only their 3rd season back in 1995-96, I know I certainly had forgotten. They were swept by the Avalanche in the Finals that year and have only returned to the playoffs twice since then. The last time they made the postseason was 2000, but they came as close as they could without getting in last year. They finished the season with an identical record to Montreal, but lost the regular season series with them and therefore were able to hit the golf course as usual.
The Panthers lone big offseason move came when they shipped star defenseman Jay Bouwmeester off to Calgary in return for Jordan Leopold and a draft pick. Florida then signed Leopold to a 1 year deal worth $1.75 million. Jordan actually played in 83 games last year between Colorado and Calgary, totaling 24 points between the teams. The injury plagued d-man had only played one full season previously in his 7 NHL seasons. Florida also signed Scott Clemmensen, who as I mentioned in the New Jersey preview, played very well in place of Martin Brodeur last season. Tomas Vokoun makes the big paycheck and figures to remain the starter, but Clemmensen could challenge him for time this season.
Florida is one of those teams where if you're not an absolute die hard fan of the sport, you probably don't recognize at least 75% of the roster... oh hell, more like 95% really. They do have some talent there however. David Booth was a 31 goal, 60 point guy last year, and Nathan Horton added 45 points and is just 24 years old. The problem is that if these guys don't start winning and soon, they could be in trouble. We've discussed at length on this site the problem with hockey teams in warm weather markets where fans don't care, and quite frankly fans in Miami don't support ANY of their teams in any sport very well. If they want to keep the Panthers, it's going to take some trips to the postseason and a buzz around the team to do it.
Atlanta Thrashers - Speaking of teams in warm weather markets with completely indifferent fans... The Atlanta Thrashers entered their 10th season in the NHL with exactly one playoff appearance and 0 postseason wins to their credit. Sadly, last season's 35 wins was good enough for 3rd best in franchise history. It was still only good enough for 13th place in the East however.
The two biggest signings for the Thrashers in the off season were Nik Antropov, who had 27 goals and 31 assists between time in Toronto and with the Rangers, at the rate of $4 million/year for 4 years, and Max Afinogenov. The player that Sabres fans universally learned to hate after years of showing so much flash and sizzle and delivering absolutely nothing. Many of us wished he would have been dealt a few years ago when he still had some value, but instead Buffalo chose to keep him until his contract finally expired and let him walk. Afinogenov hit rock bottom last year with just 6 goals and 14 assists and found himself being benched when a nagging groin injury wasn't keeping him from playing.
Atlanta essentially has 2 things going for it. One is Ilya Kovalchuck, the 26 year old Russian who has 6 straight seasons with at least 38 goals. Last year he scored 43 times and added in 48 assists. The second thing is low expectations... The offense is talented, they tied for the 8th most goals scored in the entire NHL last season with 257. The problem is they gave up the 2nd most goals in the league as well. Goalie Khari Lehtonen has showed flashes of brilliance at times, but is often highly inconsistent. He split time with Johan Hedberg last year, and you can expect more of the same this year unless one or the other steps up their game big time.
Atlanta really doesn't have anywhere to go but up. If they could solidify their defense and goaltending situation even slightly, the offense would propel them towards making the playoffs, but they seem disinterested in doing so... almost as disinterested as their fan base. In terms of arena capacity, the Thashers were the worst in the league in attendance, averaging a hair under 80% of capacity. Even Phoenix was at 85% and they truly have nothing to be excited about at this point.
Tampa Bay Lightning - Wow, this division truly is terrible isn't it? Just when you think it can't get worse, we get to the cluster... um, you know what I mean, known as Tampa Bay. Barry Melrose was brought back from obnoxious ESPN analyst land to coach the Lightning last year and made it through exactly 16 games before getting canned. Melrose's 5-7-4 record wasn't good enough, so Rick Tocchet was given the keys and managed to put up a 19-34-14 record of his own, which was apparently much better because he got himself a 2 year deal in the process.
On the ice, Tampa still has Martin St. Louis and Vincent Lecavalier, who as usual, lead the team in scoring last year with 80 and 67 points respectively. Tampa signed Alex Tanguay and Mattias Ohlund in the offseason in a feeble attempt to help out both sides of the puck. Goalie Mike Smith started half the games last year, while 4 others also saw time between the pipes. Tampa signed Anterro Niittymaki from Philadelphia, who will likely become the main backup to Smith this season.
One of the few plusses for the Lightning is the fact that they do have some solid young talent as well. Center Steven Stamkos was 3rd on the team in scoring last season with 23 goals and 23 assists and is just 19 years old. They also won the runner up prize in the John Tavares sweepstakes at the NHL draft, picking 2nd and taking defenseman Victor Hedman from Sweden. While St. Louis and Lecavalier's stats are likely in decline from here on out, both are still stolid point getters and team leaders. Tampa should have a better year this season with a little more stability and more experience for their youngsters, but they're still not playoff material at this point.
Predictions
Playoff Teams:
Pittsburgh
Washington
Boston
New Jersey
Carolina
Philadelphia
Buffalo
Florida
Eastern Conference Champion:
Pittsburgh Penguins
2009 NFL Preview: NFC East
Dallas Cowboys
Key Additions: Jon Kitna (QB), Keith Brooking (LB), Matt Stewart (LB), Igor Olshansky (DE), Gerald Sensabaugh (S)
Key Losses: Terrell Owens (WR), Greg Ellis (LB), Roy Williams (S), Tank Johnson (DT), Zach Thomas (LB), Keith Davis (LB), Adam Jones (CB), Brad Johnson (QB), Anthony Henry (CB), Chris Canty (CB)
Draft Picks: Jason Williams (LB-Western Ill), Robert Brewster (T-Ball St), Stephen McGee (QB-Texas A&M), Victor Butler (DE-Oregon St), Brandon Williams (DL-Texas Tech), DeAngelo Smith (DB-Cincinnati), Michael Hamlin (S-Clemson), David Buehler (K-USC), Stephen Hodge (S-TCU), John Phillips (TE-Virginia), Mike Mickens (DB-Cincinnati), Manuel Johnson (WR-Oklahoma)
Last season gave us all the privilege of seeing yet another Cowboys season that finished well below their amazingly high expectations. The Cowboys came into the 2008 season expected to compete for a trip to the Super Bowl but Dallas couldn't even muster a playoff berth at the end.
Jerry Jones decided to keep head coach Wade Phillips for another season. I have to assume this is only so he can fully prove himself as a failure of a head coach and vacate the spot next offseason for former Broncos coach Mike Shanahan. With Phillips staying and the Cowboys needing a scapegoat, they decided to release wide receiver Terrell Owens at the start of free agency. That move seems to have worked out well for all of those involved.
Without Owens in the fold, the only time the Cowboys have been in the news has been when Tony Romo announced his breakup with super ditz Jessica Simpson and when the Cowboys practice tent collapsed nearly killing the players and coaches that were inside practicing at the time. Oh and I almost forgot, they spent over one billion dollars on a new stadium where a major design flaw was exposed during the first preseason game. Hey, good thing they have less distractions now.
The Cowboys didn't make a ton of offseason moves besides the release of Owens. They traded with the Lions to pick up quarterback Jon Kitna, which is technically an upgrade at the position. Last year their entire season went down the tubes right around the time Tony Romo went out with an injury and the combination of Brad Johnson and Brooks Bollinger did their best to make sure they never got an NFL job again. So while Kitna isn't exactly "great", he is probably a better option at backup in the event that Romo goes down again. Honestly, that isn't saying a whole lot.
But while we're on the topic of Jon Kitna, I feel inclined to share one of my favorite quotes from Bill Simmons on the topic. "Could we have a team of behavioral scientists start examining the bizarre phenomenon when Jon Kitna suddenly and inexplicably gets into a passing groove? Does anyone else get totally flustered by this? It's like watching somebody climb out of a wheelchair and walk around the room for an hour."
The Cowboys also released the highly overrated safety Roy Williams. The only thing I wondered when I saw that news is what the hell took them so long. Also no longer making it rain in Dallas is cornerback Adam "Pac Man" Jones. I can't totally rip Dallas for that move. It was a low risk move to bring him in, it didn't work, and the Cowboys are moving on after one season. I'll give props to Dallas for cutting their losses with him after one season instead of hanging on and trying to make it work.
I don't see Dallas improving much from last season. They will surely be better if Romo stays healthy, but he lost a big receiving target and we're still not sure if Roy E. Williams is going to be a suitable replacement, especially because he defined the word "suck" last year after his trade to Dallas. If they were in the NFC West I'd have them pegged as a division winner, but not in the East. I see a third place finish for them this year.
Last Season: 9-7
2009 Prediction: 9-7
New York Giants
Key Additions: Rocky Bernard (DT), Tutan Reyes (G), Chris Canty (CB), George Wrighster(TE)
Key Losses: Derrick Ward (RB), Plaxico Burress (WR), Renaldo Wynn (DE), Reuben Droughns (RB), Sam Madison (CB), Sammy Knight (S), John Carney (K), Amani Toomer (WR), R.W. McQuarters (CB)
Draft Picks: Hakeem Nicks (WR-UNC), Clint Sintim (LB-Virginia), Will Beatty (T-UConn), Ramses Barden (WR-Cal Poly), Travis Beckum (TE-Wisconsin), Andre Brown (RB-NC State), Rhett Bomar (QB-Sam Houston St), DeAndre Wright (CB-New Mexico), Stoney Woodson (CB-South Carolina)
The Giants didn't necessarily finish with a successful season in 2008; however I guess that is how you define "successful". They overcame the dreaded Super Bowl hangover and won their division again, but lost in the divisional round of the playoffs to the Philadelphia Eagles. The Giants were cruising through the regular season up until the point when the news on Plaxico Burress broke and the offense never appeared to be the same.
The Giants had a relatively quiet offseason up until the time that they signed QB Eli Manning to be the highest paid player in the league. Honestly, I have no problem with the signing. The Giants recognized that they have a franchise QB on their hands, not to mention one with a Super Bowl ring, and they decided to lock him up. Should he be making more than Big Ben or Tom Brady? Probably not. But that is up to the Steelers and Patriots to work out, it isn't the Eli's fault.
They also officially cut ties with receiver Plaxico Burress, which was the best thing they could do considering he is headed for prison for almost two years. New York attempted to replace Burress in the first round of the draft when they selected Hakeem Nicks from UNC. It's highly doubtful that Nicks will step right in and make an impact so Manning is going to need some help elsewhere. It's no secret that the Giants offense dropped off dramatically once Burress was suspended for the remainder of last season.
The Giants still have a bruising running game, despite losing Derrick Ward, as Brandon Jacobs returns and Ahmad Bradshaw looks to take over. Both guys have more than enough speed and Jacobs has plenty of power to just completely run defenders over. Who knows how long his body will last running with that style but nobody is complaining just yet.
The Giants also return with a stacked defense. They were already good and now Osi Umenyora is returning from injury. Much like Shawne Merriman coming back in San Diego, this is almost like a free agent signing in itself assuming the player comes back healthy. The Giants also acquired Rocky Bernard to help clog up the middle of an already stout defensive line.
Last Season: 12-4
2009 Prediction: 10-6
Philadelphia Eagles
Key Additions: Jason Peters (T), Stacy Andrews (T/G), Sean Jones (S), Leonard Weaver (FB), Rashad Baker (S), Ellis Hobbs (CB), Michael Vick (QB)
Key Losses: Correll Buckhalter (RB), Jon Runyan (T), Tra Thomas (T), L.J. Smith (TE), Sean Considine (S)
Draft Picks: Jeremy Maclin (WR-Missouri), LeSean McCoy (RB-Pittsburgh), Cornelius Ingram (TE-Florida), Victor Harris (CB-Virginia Tech), Fenuki Tupou (T-Oregon), Brandon Gibson (WR-Washington St), Paul Fanaika (G-Arizona St), Moise Fokou (LB-Maryland)
The Eagles are probably the most improved team in the NFC East. They signed QB Donovan McNabb to a two year extension which should put to rest all the rumors of Kevin Kolb taking his job. Although to be fair, actually watching Kolb play should have put those rumors to rest a long time ago. Regardless, McNabb is healthy, happy, and ready to go this season.
I suppose it would be wrong of me to not mention the late August signing of Michael Vick. It's hard to fit this in since I wrote this column before he was actually signed. Like I said above before the signing, when Kolb has actually taken the field, it's been scary. So this signing could be a nice insurance policy if McNabb goes down for a few games. Well, that is assuming that Michael Vick can return to playing QB at a competent level. He has always been a great athlete but I've been left less than impressed with his actual QB play more times than not. However, if the Eagles are able to effectively use him and McNabb at the same time, the possibilities are actually quite scary. Don't believe me? The day after the signing the Giants started practicing on how to defend the Wildcat. Although I still think it's a gimmick offense, the threat is obviously real if teams immediately start preparing for it. I'm less convinced this will work after the first preseason game but I'm sure it will take time for Vick to come around after a few years off.
The Eagles were very close to another Super Bowl trip last season so assuming they don't collapse under the huge expectations this season, one has to have them pegged as an early favorite in the NFC. Before the draft the Eagles acquired LT Jason Peters from Buffalo and promptly gave him the money he deserved thought he deserved. I'm trying to put all bias aside here. Peters is an upgrade for the Eagles line if he plays to his full capability. It's no secret that he completely mailed it in last season because he was pissed at Buffalo for not giving him his money. Now that he has his money he should be playing 100%, but you never know with that. One thing is for sure, Andy Reid put all the pressure on Peters the minute he got to Philly by proclaiming that he is the "best tackle in the NFL". If he doesn't live up to those expectations, expect the Philly fans to let him know.
During the draft the Eagles added WR Jeremy Maclin and RB LeSean McCoy to the fold. Maclin might have a harder learning curve but could prove to be a dangerous weapon opposite last year's first round pick, DeSean Jackson. I expect McCoy to see the field quite a bit considering he is the primary backup for Brian Westbrook. It's no secret that Westbrook is a great player but is also very injury prone. To help keep him healthy, expect McCoy to make an immediate impact for the Eagles offense this season.
Even before the Vick signing I had the Eagles winning the NFC East and challenging for a trip to the Super Bowl. If they can survive the circus they created I see no reason why those chances aren't even greater this year. And if one more person argues with me that Minnesota is now the team to beat with Brett Favre, I will drop the gloves with that person.
Last Season: 9-6-1
2009 Prediction: 11-5
Washington Redskins
Key Additions: Albert Haynesworth (DT), Derrick Dockery (G), Renaldo Wynn (DE)
Key Losses: Shawn Springs (CB), Jason Taylor (DE), Jon Jansen (T), James Thrash (WR)
Draft Picks: Brian Orakpo (DE-Texas), Kevin Barnes (CB-Maryland), Cody Glenn (OLB-Nebraska), Robert Henson (ILB-TCU), Eddie Williams (FB-Idaho), Marko Mitchell (WR-Nevada)
It says a lot about the NFC East that the Redskins finished dead last in the division and were still a .500 team. There was a point last season when I would've argued that Washington was much better than Dallas or Philadelphia, but they fell apart at the end of the season and missed out on the playoffs once again.
Like usual, the number one offseason goal for the Redskins was to spend a ton of money the minute free agency started. They succeeded with flying colors by signing Albert Haynesworth to a bajillion dollars. However, after that the Redskins stayed moderately low for a little while. They brought Derrick Dockery back after he was rightfully released from Buffalo after two miserable seasons. They also cut their losses by releasing Jason Taylor after only one season in DC.
The Redskins then proceeded to alienate their starting QB but openly going after both Jay Cutler and rookie Mark Sanchez. Honestly, I can see why they were going after Cutler. While I'm not especially high on Cutler, he is an upgrade over Jason Campbell. However, it was a huge mistake to go after either QB in public while Jason Campbell was entrenched as the starter.
One positive for the Redskins is that Jason Campbell is heading into the season under the same offensive scheme as the previous season, something he hasn't been able to say since high school. This should take out the built in excuse for Campbell that he had to learn a brand new system during the offseason. If he doesn't get it done this year, it might be his last in DC and his last as a starter in the league.
One negative for the Redskins is that behind Santana Moss, there isn't a whole lot going on at wide receiver. No disrespect towards Antwaan Randle El, but he isn't anything more than a slot receiver who can return punts. Now if last year's rookies (Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly) can actually contribute, the Skins offense might not be so bad after all.
I don't see a whole lot going well for Washington this season. The NFC East is too even and they are still below those other teams. I have them improving one game from the fact that Campbell comes in more prepared to lead the offense, but I don't see it being a breakout season by any means.
Last Season: 8-8
2009 Prediction: 9-7
2009 NFL Preview: AFC South
Houston Texans
Key Additions: Rex Grossman (QB), Dan Orlovsky (QB), Cato June (LB), Antonio Smith (DE), Buster Davis (LB), Shaun Cody (DT), Deltha O'Neal (CB), Adrian Jones (G), Khary Campbell (LB)
Key Losses: Sage Rosenfels (QB), Ahman Green (RB), Ron Dayne (RB), Ephraim Salaam (OT), Morlon Greenwood (LB), Anthony Weaver (DE), Will Demps (S), Mark Bruener (TE), Cecil Sapp (FB),
Draft Picks: Brian Cushing (LB-USC), Connor Barwin (DE-Cincinnati), Antoine Caldwell (C-Alabama), Glover Quin (CB-New Mexico), Anthony Hill (TE-NC State), James Casey (TE-Rice), Brice McCain (CB-Utah), Troy Nolan (S-Arizona St.)
The Houston Texans finished up 8-8 in 2008, much the same as the previous year. That may not seem like an impressive record, but considering they play in the AFC South with some very talented teams, it's not so bad. This team has been steadily building and improving over the past few seasons, and if they played in different division, like the AFC or NFC West, they'd probably be contenders to make the playoffs at this point. That is not the case however, so while the Texans get better, the playoffs still seem like a pretty far off destination.
Last year's team can best be described as streaky. They started off 0-4 last year, then won 3 in a row, lost 3 in a row, and won 4 in a row before splitting the final 2 games of the season. They went 3-3 within the AFC South, but lost both games to Indianapolis. They did however keep both games very close and were leading for much of the first meeting, until Sage Rosenfels (playing for an ill Matt Schaub) choked away the game with an epic fumble that was returned for a TD.
Schaub had a pretty solid season in '08, but missed 5 games due to illness/injury. The Texans will need him healthy for the entire season if they hope to make any noise, as new backups included Rex Grossman and Dan Orlovsky, neither of which screams out winner to me. He has one of the best targets to throw to in all of football, and it amazes me that Andre Johnson is just now finally start to come into more national attention. His numbers last year were extremely impressive at 115 receptions, 1,575 yards, and 8 TDs. TE Owen Daniels has also become an increasingly popular target as he pulled in 70 receptions last year.
Steve Slaton had a terrific rookie campaign as well, taking over the starting RB job in his first year. He carried the ball for 1,282 yards and 9 TDs, and also grabbed 50 receptions in addition. Slaton's durability worries me a bit as he's not the biggest guy, but if he stays under 300 carries again this year, it should work well for him. Houston moved the ball well last year, producing the 3rd most yards in the NFL offensively, but were only middle of the pack in terms of scoring.
Conversely, on defense, they seemed to struggle a bit and were in the lower third of both yards and points surrendered. The addition of veterans like LB Cato June and CB Deltha O'Neal should help bolster a young defense. 2006 #1 overall pick, DE Mario Williams has finally started to develop into a high level player for the Texans and managed to accumulate 12 sacks last season after having 14 the year before.
If the Texans defense can tighten up just a bit more this year and the triumvirate of Schaub, Johnson, and Slaton stay healthy, Houston should continue to build on its success. Indy and Tennessee might finally be starting to slip backwards just a bit, which could potentially lead to Houston battling for a wild card spot. They start off with a pretty easy schedule, with only Tennessee and maybe Arizona as top level teams in the first 8 weeks of the season, so look for them to get out to a good start.
Last Season: 8-8
2009 Prediction: 9-7
Indianapolis Colts
Key Additions: None
Key Losses: Dominic Rhodes (RB), Marvin Harrison (WR), Keiwan Ratliff (CB), Hunter Smith (P), Kenton Keith (RB), Corey Hilliard (OT), Darrell Reid (DT)
Draft Picks: Donald Brown (RB-UConn), Fili Moala (DT-USC), Jerraud Powers (CB-Auburn), Austin Collie (WR-BYU), Terrance Taylor (DT-Michigan), Curtis Painter (QB-Purdue), Pat McAfee (P-West Virginia), Jamie Thomas (OL-Maryland)
The Colts finished the 2008 season with at least 12 wins for the 6th straight year, becoming the only team to ever accomplish that feat. The 12 wins didn't get them very far however as San Diego shocked them and knocked them out of the playoffs in the first round with an overtime victory. Heading into the 2009 season, a few familiar faces will be missing from the Indy sidelines, as Head Coach Tony Dungy has retired and WR Marvin Harrison is currently unemployed.
The Colts are getting older and maybe on the start of a downward slide after so many years at the top. Peyton Manning put up fantastic numbers yet again last season, passing for 4,002 yards and 27 TDs, but each year he seems just a touch less dominant than the one before lately. Make no mistake, he's still one of the Top 3 QBs in this league, but the options around him on the offense are starting to fade as well. Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes split the running duties last season and neither of them eclipsed 550 yards. Addai missed 4 games and will look to improve upon those numbers this year, as he has new competition in the form of rookie Donald Brown, who was an absolute work horse at Connecticut a year ago.
As far as receivers go, Reggie Wayne is clearly the number one guy now, but that also means he's going to be doubled a lot more since Marvin Harrison is now gone. Anthony Gonzalez and TE Dallas Clark make for great secondary options, but unless rookie WR Austin Collie can step up his game quickly, the Colts options to spread the ball around through the air have decreased just a bit. If the Colts can establish a more dominant ground game then they've had in quite some time, they'll probably be much better off this year.
While the Colts' offense actually was only middle of the pack statistically last year, their defense actually was near the top of the league. Only 6 teams gave up fewer points than Indy last year. Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney were disruptive bookends last year along the line, amassing 11.5 and 10.5 sacks respectively. Gary Brackett and Clint Session are solid linebackers in the 4-3 defense and FS Antoine Bethea was amongst the team leader in tackles. Former Defensive Player of the Year SS Bob Sanders missed much of last year due to injury and is still struggling with knee issues heading into this year, though reports indicate he is on track to make it back this season.
Indy is still a top team in the AFC, but they have begun to move backwards towards the rest of the competition, and dealing with a tough Tennessee and Houston team twice a year doesn't help them much. I expect to see them in the postseason again this year, barring catastrophic injury to Peyton Manning, but their window for a second Super Bowl is quickly coming to a close.
Last Season: 12-4
2009 Prediction: 10-6
Jacksonville Jaguars
Key Additions: Torry Holt (WR), Tra Thomas (OT), Marlon McCree (S), Adam Seward (LB), Sean Considine (S), Montavious Stanley (DT)
Key Losses: Fred Taylor (RB), Cleo Lemon (QB), Matt Jones (WR), Dennis Northcutt (WR), Reggie Williams (WR), Jerry Porter (WR), Drayton Florence (CB), Pierson Prioleau (S), Mike Peterson (LB), Khalif Barnes (OT), Tutan Reyes (G), Paul Spicer (DE), Chris Naeole (G), George Wrightster (TE)
Draft Picks: Eugene Monroe (OT-Virginia), Eben Britton (OT-Arizona), Terrance Knighton (DT-Temple), Derek Cox (CB-William & Mary), Mike Thomas (WR-Arizona), Jarret Dillard (WR-Rice), Zach Miller (TE-Nebraska Omaha), Rashad Jennings (RB-Liberty), Tiquan Underwood (WR-Rutgers)
What a difference a year can make in the NFL. Jacksonville went 5-12 in 2008, just a year after an 11-5 campaign that saw them advance to the AFC Divisional Round of the playoffs. Almost anything that could go wrong for the Jaguars did go wrong last year.
It started just before the season when OT Richard Collier was shot 14 times and left a paraplegic. A slew of injuries to the offensive line later, and the season was over almost before it started. David Garrard was sacked 42 times on the season and while previously known for rarely ever throwing interceptions, tossed 13 of them on the year. He also only managed 15 TD passes. Though, to be fair, he had nobody to throw the ball to either. The leading receiver for the Jaguars was Matt Jones who may or may not have been coked out of his mind at the time. He pulled in 65 catches, and no other WR had more than 44. Big free agent signing Jerry Porter didn't play in 6 games and only managed 11 catches in the 10 games he did play in.
The Jaguars at least realize where their problems lay and attempted to address them in the off season. Free agent signings included WR Torry Holt from the Rams and OT Tra Thomas from the Eagles. Jacksonville's draft also focused heavily on those positions, taking two of the top tackles with their first two picks and also adding 3 receivers on Day 2. Obviously only time will tell if these moves paid off or not, but there really wasn't anywhere to go but up.
The lone bright spot on the offense has to be RB Maurice Jones-Drew. Even he struggled along the rest of the team, but did manage a combined 1,389 yards and 14 TDs rushing and receiving. With Fred Taylor moving on to New England, MJD is officially the man in Jacksonville. There is of course, still the other side of the ball to worry about too.
Defensively, the Jaguars weren't horrid last year, but they weren't too good either. They gave up right around 23 points a game, which puts them in the bottom third of the league. The issue heading into 2009 is that they lost some of their leaders on the defense too. Leading tackler Mike Peterson is now an Atlanta Falcon, DE Paul Spicer and S Pierson Prioleau have joined the Saints, and CB Drayton Florence now resides in Buffalo. Jacksonville is going to have a rough time stopping teams this year as they don't get much pressure on the quarterback and they're going to really have to rely on young players stepping up both on the defensive line and at the linebacker position.
I can't see things getting too much worse than last year in Jacksonville, but they need to find a way to turn things around. They already have one of the worst fan bases in terms of attendance as it is and they could find themselves seriously in danger of losing their franchise in the near future. I know the numbers reported say they have nearly capacity attendance for their home games, but I'm not buying it. I was there in Week 2 last year and on top of them tarping off several sections of the stadium, there were a lot of empty seats as well.
Last Season: 5-11
2009 Prediction: 5-11
Tennessee Titans
Key Additions: Patrick Ramsey (QB), Nate Washington (WR), Rocky Boiman (LB), Jovan Haye (DT), DeMarcus Faggins (CB)
Key Losses: Chris Simms (QB), Albert Haynseworth (DT), Justin McCareins (WR), Roydell Williams (WR), Brandon Jones (WR), Eric King (CB), Reynaldo Hill (CB)
Draft Picks: Kenny Britt (WR-Rutgers), Sen'Derrick Marks (DT-Auburn), Jared Cook (TE-South Carolina), Ryan Mouton (CB-Hawaii), Gerald McGrath (LB-Southern Miss.), Troy Kropog (T-Tulane), Javon Ringer (RB-Michigan St.), Jason McCourty (CB-Rutgers), Dominique Edison (WR-Stephen F. Austin), Ryan Durand (G-Syracuse), Nick Schommer (S-North Dakota St.)
Count me amongst those that think the Titans were highly over-achieving when they finished 13-3 last season. Tennessee started off 10-0 and ended up winning the AFC South, but were defeated in their first playoff game by the Baltimore Ravens. They return with much of the same roster this year in an attempt to recreate their regular season success.
Vince Young went down in game 1 last year and Kerry Collins took over the QB spot for the rest of the season, playing solidly, but not spectacularly. The grey bearded Collins heads into 2009 as the starter despite the fact that he's 35. He threw for just 2,676 yards and 12 TDs a year ago, but it didn't matter as the Titans relied heavily on their ground game to get the job done.
Expect more of the same this year, as Collins is just another year older and doesn't have much in the way of targets to throw to. TE Bo Scaife lead the team with 58 receptions last year and Justin Gage is the team's top returning WR, having just 34 catches a year ago. Free agent pick up Nate Washington comes over from Pittsburgh and will likely be the top target this year, where he'll be joined with first round draft pick Kenny Britt. Britt has good size but most 1st year WRs struggle with the transition to the NFL game, so his output should be expected to amount to much.
The ground game is what it's all about though in Nashville. Last year, rookie RB Chris Johnson exploded onto the scene with 1,258 yards and 9 TDs. He split time with LenDale White, who was the Red Zone specialist, racking up 15 TDs to go along with his 773 yards. The Titans play old school football, running the ball frequently and successfully, usually winning the time of possession battle in the process. They also rely on one of the best defenses in the league to shut down the opposition.
Tennessee trailed only Pittsburgh in scoring defense last year, allowing just 14.6 points per game. Teams averaged under 300 yards per game against the Titans, and other than a drubbing at the hands of the NY Jets in week 12, very few teams had any real success against them. Tennessee may have lost Albert Hanyesworth in the offseason, but they still have several talented players on their defense, including Kyle Vanden Bosch and Jevon Kearse on the defensive line. Keith Bullock leads the linebacking corps, while Michael Griffin and Cortland Finnegan combined for 12 INTs last season in the secondary.
The Titans defense may be just a notch below last year without Haynesworth, but they'll still be one of the best in the NFL. The offense is where my concern lays. It'll surely be tough to stop the running attack of Johnson and White, but the passing game is mediocre at best. I know they managed to win a lot of games last year with that scenario, but I can't help but think it'll cost them a few times this year. Just the same, I expect them to battle Indy for the top spot in the AFC South once again, though I still don't seem them getting far in the playoffs.
Last Season: 13-3
2009 Prediction: 10-6
2009 NFL Preview: NFC South
Atlanta Falcons
Key Additions: Marty Booker (WR), Tony Gonazlez (TE), Jamie Winborn (LB), Mike Peterson (LB), Brett Romberg (C), Troy Bergeron (WR)
Key Losses: Michael Vick (QB), Wayne Gandy (OT), Lawyer Milloy (S), Dominique Foxworth (CB), Keith Brooking (LB), Michael Boley (LB), Grady Jackson (DT), Jeremy Newberry (C), Rod Coleman (DT)
Draft Picks: Peria Jerry (DT-Mississippi), William Moore (S-Missouri), Christopher Owens (CB-San Jose St.), Lawrence Sibury (DE-Richmond), William Middleton (CB-Furman), Garrett Reynolds (T-North Carolina), Spencer Adkins (LB-Miami), Vance Walker (DT-Georgia Tech)
Rookie QBs in the NFL tend to go through growing pains more often than not, but Matt Ryan of the Atlanta Falcons was an exception to that rule. In his first season in the league, he took Atlanta to an 11-5 record and a playoff berth. The Falcons didn't make it out of the Wild Card round, as they were knocked off by eventual NFC champions, the Arizona Cardinals. Just the same, the season proved much more successful than most were expecting for Atlanta after a miserable 4-12 campaign in 2007.
I can't put my finger on it exactly, but I really like what the Falcons have done in rebuilding this team the past 2 years after the entire Michael Vick debacle went down. They seem to be doing things the right way and have become a fairly young, certainly exciting team to watch. The expectations have certainly been raised after last year's effort, but a difficult NFC South division will force them to battle hard if they hope to return to the playoffs. The Falcons made one big step in the right direction during the offseason as they acquired Hall of Fame bound TE Tony Gonzalez from the Chiefs. He may be 33 years old, but he's still one of the most prolific players at his position, hauling in 96 receptions for 1,058 yards and 10 TDs in KC last season. Gonzalez will give Matt Ryan a great option on intermediate routes to accompany the dynamic young WRs he has in Michael Jenkins and Roddy White.
White stepped up his game and proved himself to be amongst the NFC's best receivers as he made 88 grabs for 1,382 yards and 7 TDs last season, earning himself a trip to the Pro Bowl in the process. Joining him in Hawaii was RB Michael Turner, who signed with the team heading into 2008. He proved to be another extremely valuable pick up as he gained 1,699 yards on the ground and scored 17 times, good enough for 2nd in the NFL in both categories. The offense is certainly not an issue in Atlanta, as they were in the Top 10 in scoring last year. The defense on the other hand, can be a bit spotty.
The Falcons gave up a lot of yards last season and were near the bottom of the pack in the league. They did however manage to keep teams out of the end zone for the most part, which would go a long way in explaining their excellent record. John Abraham was a beast at DE last season with 16.5 sacks on the year, but nobody else on the defense could really be considered a playmaker. Only 4 teams had fewer interceptions than the Falcons did and they ended up a -3 in the turnover department for the season. On top of that, they lost some key components from their defense, as 4 of their top 9 tacklers from last season are gone now, including team leader Keith Brooking.
The Falcons focused on defense in the draft and will hope that those players develop quickly and that free agent acquisitions, veteran linebackers Jamie Winborn and Mike Peterson can fill the shoes of Brooking and Michael Boley. If the defense can be even decent again this year, the offense will carry this team a long ways. I expect them to be competing for the division title again this season and they should make the playoffs as well.
Last Season: 11-5
2009 Prediction: 10-6
Carolina Panthers
Key Additions: None
Key Losses: Geoff Hangartner (C), D.J. Hackett (WR), Nick Goings (FB), Frank Omiyale (OT), Adam Seward (LB), Mark Jones (WR), Donte' Curry (LB)
Draft Picks: Everette Brown (DE-Florida St.), Sherrod Martin (CB-Troy), Corvey Irvin (DT-Georgia), Mike Goodson (RB-Texas A&M), Tony Fiammetta (FB-Syracuse), Duke Robinson (G-Oklahoma), Captain Munnerlyn (CB-South Carolina)
Seemingly lost amongst all that happened in the 2008 season is the fact that the Carolina Panthers were 12-4. I imagine it was forgotten somewhere around the time the Arizona Cardinals were destroying the Panthers, in Charlotte, in the Divisional Round of the playoffs. Carolina was humiliated in that game, losing 33-13, while Jake Delhomme managed to throw 5 interceptions and fumble the ball away as well. The team would surely like to erase that game from their mind as they head into 2009.
The Panthers struck gold with their running back combination last year as DeAngelo Williams had 1,515 yards and 18 rushing TDs, while Jonathan Stewart tacked on an additional 836 yards and 10 TDs. With a running game like that, being able to throw the ball was just icing on the cake. Delhomme was solid for the most part and Steve Smith was his favorite WR as usual. Despite missing the first 2 games of the year due to a suspension, Smith still managed 78 catches, 1,421 yards, and 6 TDs on the season. Despite his small stature, Smith is clearly one of the top receivers in the NFL right now.
Defensively, the Panthers are lead by LB Jon Beason who is entering his 3rd season in the league, and who is coming off a team leading 138 tackle season. Beason also managed 3 interceptions, tying him with Chris Gamble for the team lead. Julius Peppers was a pass rushing force at DE as usual, racking up 14.5 sacks for the year. The Panthers were middle of the pack in terms of yards given up last year, but were in the upper portion of the league when it comes to points against, which is truly the stat that matters defensively. Carolina drafted LB/DE hybrid Everette Brown out of Florida St. in the second round, hoping to compliment Peppers pass rushing efforts in the coming year. Brown, though a bit undersized, will likely line up at DE for the Panthers.
Interestingly, Carolina steered clear of the free agent market this offseason, electing to not sign a single veteran player. The organization seems to be pleased with its current roster and must think that their playoff destruction last year was an anomaly rather than something to be concerned with. The usually tough Panthers' Defense is going to need to be able to shut down some explosive offenses as they face Atlanta and New Orleans twice each, as well as a rematch with Arizona in Week 8, in Glendale. The Panthers will likely be dueling with Atlanta for the NFC South crown, but I'd expect both to make it to the playoffs once again this year.
Last Season: 12-4
2009 Prediction: 10-6
New Orleans Saints
Key Additions: Darren Sharper (S), Jabari Greer (CB), Pierson Prioleau (S), Paul Spicer (DL), Roderick Coleman (DT), Anthony Waters (LB), Dan Campbell (TE), Darnell Dinkins (TE), Heath Evans (FB)
Key Losses: Deuce McAllister (RB), David Patten (WR), Mike McKenzie (CB), Dan Morgan (LB), Josh Bullocks (S), Darian Barnes (FB), Mike Karney (FB), Eric Johnson (TE), Hollis Thomas (DT), Antwan Lake (DT), Brian Young (DT)
Draft Picks: Malcom Jenkins (CB-Ohio St.), Chip Vaughn (S-Wake Forest), Stanley Arnoux (LB-Wake Forest), Thomas Morstead (P-Southern Methodist)
The New Orleans Saints had a very back and forth season in 2008 on their way to an 8-8 record. The team never won or lost more than 2 games in a row all season long and battled the injury bug throughout. The Saints have a solid passing game intact, but questions galore with their ground game. Defensively, they've got some definite issues and were in the bottom third of the league in points surrendered last season.
The high point of the 2008 season for the Saints was clearly the play of QB Drew Brees. Brees was on the verge of breaking Dan Marino's single season record for passing yards, but came up just short with 5,069, which he complimented quite nicely with 34 TDs. 7 different players had 30+ receptions for the team, but WR Lance Moore lead the way with 79 grabs, 928 yards, and 10 TDs. Devery Henderson established himself as a deep threat, averaging 24.8 yards per catch. Offensively, the Saints' struggles all stemmed from their ability, or lack thereof, to consistently run the ball.
Injuries made for something of a revolving door at the RB position for New Orleans, as no back had more than 129 carries. Pierre Thomas was the man to hit that mark, and he managed 625 yards and 9 TDs in the process. Relatively unknown coming into the year, he made the most of the opportunity he was given and will look to further those numbers as he takes over as the starter in 2009. Reggie Bush and Deuce McAllister both missed significant time due to injuries, and for McAllister, it ultimately cost him his job with the Saints, as he was released in the offseason. Bush had huge expectations leveled on him coming out of USC a few years back, but so far hasn't been able to be counted on to shoulder the load as a traditional RB. The Saints have realized this and have sought to make him more effective by getting him the ball in space, using him more frequently in pass catching roles.
Jonathan Vilma made the most of his first season in New Orleans, leading the team in tackles with 132, and earning himself a contract worth $34 million over 5 years in the process. The Saints had a very young defense in 2008 and at times, it showed. They look to add some veteran leadership by bringing in guys like Paul Spicer, Pierson Prioleau, and Darren Sharper, all of which will be in at least their 10th year in the league. Sharper is not the same player he once was with Green Bay and Minnesota, as his stats have continued to dwindle over the last few years, but he should be key in the leadership department.
The Saints are capable of putting a lot of points on the board with their potent passing game, but last year they proved just as capable of giving up a lot of points. Teams head into this year knowing what to expect from Brees and company, and will probably key on stopping the passing game. Pierre Thomas seems to hold the fate of the Saints in his hands a bit in 2009, as his ability to build on a strong late season performance last year will be the key to the Saints maintaining balance on offense. I see a letdown in the making and expect New Orleans to struggle a bit more this season.
Last Season: 8-8
2009 Prediction: 6-10
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Key Additions: Byron Leftwich (QB), Kellen Winslow Jr. (TE), Angelo Crowell (LB), Derrick Ward (RB), Dirk Johnson (P)
Key Losses: Jeff Garcia (QB), Brian Griese (QB), Warrick Dunn (RB), Joey Galloway (WR), Ike Hilliard (WR), Alex Smith (TE), Luke Petigout (OT), Kevin Carter (DE), Cato June (LB), Derrick Brooks (LB), Phillip Buchanon (CB), Jovan Haye (DT)
Draft Picks: Josh Freeman (QB-Kansas St.), Roy Miller (DT-Texas), Kyle Moore (DE-USC), Xavier Fulton (OL-Illinois), E.J. Biggers (CB-Western Michigan), Sammie Stroughter (WR-Oregon St.)
Perhaps no team will look as different in 2009 as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. After finishing the 2008 season at 9-7, the team has been blown up on a large scale. Raheem Morris takes over the head coaching duties at just 32 years old, and a new general manager is also in place. Virtually every long time, recognizable Buccaneer's face was shown the door as well, including names like Warrick Dunn and Derrick Brooks. Josh Freeman was drafted as the QB of the future for the team, but he's not without plenty of competition at the position.
Jeff Garcia and Brian Griese both saw significant time as the starting QB last year for Tampa, and both have left town since. Byron Leftwich was brought in from Pittsburgh to compete for the starting job alongside Luke McCown and as of the writing of this article, the winner has still not been settled. Leftwich appeared to slightly be in the lead heading into the 2nd preseason game, but he did not perform too well and McCown stepped up his game. Raheem Morris had stated that he expected to name a starter following this 2nd preseason game, but his decision appears to have been made even more difficult. Each bring a slightly different skill set to the table, so it's an interesting debate.
Antonio Bryant will likely be the primary target of whichever QB wins the battle, as the WR lead the team last season with 83 receptions, 1248 yards, and 7 TDs. Nobody else was really even close, and Ike Hilliard and Joey Galloway are also no longer on the team. The receiving corps of the Bucs is thin at best, and both QBs seem like a downgrade from Jeff Garcia to me. Additionally, the running game in Tampa is questionable as well. Last year's statistical leader Warrick Dunn is currently unemployed and the two incumbents each spent a good deal of last year injured. Cadillac Williams didn't play until week 12 last year, when he took over for then injured Earnest Graham. Neither were remarkable, but Graham was probably more reliable. Derrick Ward comes over from the NY Giants, where he broke 1,000 yards on less than 200 carries last season. He looks to be the front runner as the starter heading into the season, but only time will tell how he handles the spotlight.
As usual, Tampa was one of the better defenses in the league last season, and with Morris being a defensive minded coach, I'm sure his emphasis will remain there. However, veteran linebackers Derrick Brooks and Cato June were amongst the casualties of all the offseason changes, and they are not easily replaced. Angelo Crowell comes over from Buffalo where he had shown signs of being a talented, up and coming OLB before an injury requiring knee surgery cost him the 2008 season in its entirety. Last night in the team's preseason game against Jacksonville, Crowell injured his arm and may be out again for this season. With the exception of a few players, notably S Ronde Barber and DT Chris Hovan, the Bucs have an extremely young defense. Morris will have to hope his young talent overachieves to have a chance at being close to last year's level of play.
In the NFL, it's very hard to completely change the look of an organization and have success right away. Tampa will be no exception in my opinion. I see them taking a hard fall this year as they search for an identity. Morris will have his hands full as a young first time head coach staring at a team full of question marks. I fully expect them to be bringing up the rear of the NFC South this season.
Last Season: 9-7
2009 Prediction: 5-11
2009 NFL Preview: AFC North
Key Additions: Chris Carr (CB), L.J. Smith (TE), John Beck (QB), Kelley Washington (WR), Matt Birk (C), Dominique Foxworth (CB)
Key Losses: Bart Scott (LB), Jim Leonhard (S), Matt Stover (K), Kyle Boller (QB), Terrance Cooper (WR), Cory Ivy (CB), Lee Vickers (DE)
Draft Picks: Michael Oher (OT-Mississippi), Paul Kruger (DE/OLB-Utah), Lardarius Webb (CB-Nicholls St.), Jason Phillips (ILB-TCU), Davon Drew (TE-East Carolina), Cedric Peerman (RB-Virginia)
Baltimore is looking to build off a very successful season last year, in which they made it as far as the AFC Championship before getting knocked off by the eventual Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers. The team went 11-5 in the regular season and defeated Miami in the Wild Card Round, and then the Tennessee Titans in the Divisional Round of the playoffs.
Things will be looking a little different for the Ravens this season however as former Defensive Coordinator Rex Ryan is now the head coach of the New York Jets, and he took several players along for the ride off his highly ranked defense. The 2nd and 3rd highest tacklers on the team respectively, Bart Scott and Jim Leonhard are now gone. An aging Ray Lewis and Ed Reed will now look to others to step up in their place and help lead what has been the best part of this team for a long time now. Terrell Suggs has a large contract in hand that may help motivate him to fill that role, and young DT Haloti Ngata is quickly turning into one of the most disruptive forces on any defensive line in the NFL.
Offensively last year, the Ravens relied on rookie QB Joe Flacco to lead the team, and he did an admirable job. While his stats weren't mind blowing by any means, (2,971 yards, 14 TDs, 12 INTs) he played the role of the "effective game manager" quite nicely. The Ravens also employed a running back by committee with moderate success. Le'Ron McClain had 902 yards and 10 TDs, Willis McGahee (aka The Devil, at least from a fan of the Buffalo Bills perspective) had 671 yards and 7 TDs, and rookie Ray Rice chipped in with an additional 454 yards. This three headed monster makes for a solid Ravens' running game, but makes trying to decide which player to draft to your fantasy team a nightmare.The Ravens are still going to have to contend with the Steelers for the AFC North division title this season, but should certainly be in the running for a wild card spot regardless. They may not match their 11 wins from last year, but expect them to be in the neighborhood again as long as the defense can stay healthy.
Last Season: 11-5
2009 Prediction: 10-6
Cincinnati Bengals
Key Additions: Laveranues Coles (WR), J.T. O'Sullivan (QB), Tank Johnson (DT), Roy Williams (S), Brian Leonard (FB)
Key Losses: Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB), T.J. Houshmandzadeh (WR), Glenn Holt (WR), Stacy Andrews (OT), Levi Jones (OT), Corey Mays (S), Mike Doss (S), Chris Perry (RB), Marcus Brown (CB), Ethan Kilmer (S)
Draft Picks: Andre Smith (OT-Alabama), Rey Maualuga (LB-USC), Michael Johnson (DE-Georgia Tech), Chase Coffman (TE-Missouri), Jonathan Luigs (C-Arkansas), Kevin Huber (P-Cincinnati), Morgan Trent (CB-Michigan), Bernard Scott (RB-Abilene Christian), Fui Vakapuna (RB-BYU), Clinton McDonald (DE-Memphis), Freddie Brown (WR-Utah)
The Bengals continued their decline in 2008, going 4-11-1 on the season, a season in which QB Carson Palmer played in only 4 games. The team struggled as a whole, but perhaps nobody more so than WR Chad Ochocinco (yes... that really is his name now, and yes... I really do laugh every time I read it). Ochocinco managed only 53 catches for 540 yards and 4 TDs on the season, by far the worst in all categories since his rookie season of 2001. T.J. Houshmandzadeh picked up the slack (92 for 904 and 4 TDs) to some extent, but he's now a Seattle Seahawk.
Houshmandzadeh's replacement comes in the form of former N.Y. Jet, Laveranues Coles, who managed 70 grabs for 850 yards and 7 TDs with Brett Favre throwing to him in 2008. The Bengals running game was weak last year as well, as Cedric Benson lead the team with just 747 yards and 2 TDs. Dhani Jones may have been the lone bright spot on the defense for Cinncy with his 116 tackles. Nobody else broke 100, and no player had more than 3 INTs or 3 sacks on the season, while the team as a whole gave up just under 23 points per game. That isn't an awful number, but when you consider that their anemic offense only scored a league worst 204 points, it obviously didn't get the job done.
In reality, nothing went right for this team last year. They were 1-11-1 at one point before winning their final 3 games of the season. We're talking about a team that used it's franchise tag on a kicker after all. Shayne Graham is a good one, but there's more than a few people out there that think maybe Houshmandzadeh would have made for a better use of the tag. The one bright spot that could be looked at is their draft in 2009. They got a great deal of talent, however, they have still yet to sign their top pick Andre Smith, nor are they even close to agreeing to a deal, as of the writing of this article.
Still, I see this team bouncing back to some extent this year. A healthy Carson Palmer could do wonders and I expect him to return closer to the form of the player we saw 3 seasons ago. Additionally, Chad Ochocinco should unquestionably be the #1 receiver again, which is what he craves. I can't imagine him not improving on last year's dismal effort. Call me crazy, but look for the Bengals to rebound a bit in 2009.
Last Season - 4-11-1
2009 Prediction - 7-9
Cleveland Browns
Key Additions: Brett Ratliff (QB), Robert Royal (TE), John St. Clair (OT), Mike Furrey (WR), Eric Barton (ILB), Ron Hood (CB), Corey Ivy (CB), Hank Poteat (S), David Patten (WR)
Key Losses: Bruce Gradkowski (QB), Ken Dorsey (QB), Joe Jurevicius, Kellen Winslow (TE), Seth McKinney (G), LeCharles Bentley (C), Sean Jones (S), Jason Wright (RB), Scott Young (G), Darnell Dinkins (TE), Andra Davis (ILB), Travis Daniels (CB), Steve Cargile (S),
Draft Picks: Alex Mack (C-Cal), Brian Robiskie (WR-Ohio St.), Mohamed Massaquoi (WR-Georgia), David Veikune (DE-Hawaii), Kaluka Maiava (LB-USC), Don Carey (CB-Norfolk St.), Coy Francies (CB-San Jose St.), James Davis (RB-Clemson)
Cleveland managed to be just ever so slightly worse than their cross state rivals last year, stumbling to a 4-12 record on the year. About the only thing the team really accomplished last season was to create a full fledged quarterback controversy heading into 2009.
Derek Anderson looked incredible in 2007 as the Browns went 10-6 and narrowly missed the playoffs, but 2008 was a very different year. Anderson struggled in the early going and was benched heading into Week 10 after a 3-6 start. Brady Quinn was officially handed the reigns to the team and went 1-1, but was injured in a Week 11 win at Buffalo. A broken finger sidelined Quinn for the season and Anderson quickly regained his starting job. 2 weeks later, Anderson tore his MCL in a loss against Indianapolis and he too was done for the year.
While Quinn didn't get much time as the starter, breaking down their statistics only leads you to see almost identical numbers between he and Anderson. Thus, heading into 2009, the two were competing for the starting job for the upcoming season. Neither looked spectacular in the first preseason game as they both threw an interception, though Quinn perhaps pulled slightly ahead in the battle. Either way, this debate isn't likely to be decided until close to the start of the regular season, and even then, I won't be surprised to see them go switch it up at some point during the year.
Only the Bengals were a worse offensive team last season, as the Browns managed just 14.5 points per game, and it doesn't look to be getting a whole lot better. Braylon Edwards production fell off dramatically last year with the quarterback carousel he had to deal with, and he also notoriously lead the league with 16 dropped balls on the year. He's entering a contract season however, and that tends to lead to bigger numbers more often than not. In terms of rushing, Jamal Lewis is still carrying the load for Cleveland. Lewis is only 29 years old but is entering his 10th year in the league and seems to be wearing down after years as a true work horse who carried the ball a ton of times year in and year out. He managed to hit 1,002 yards on the season, good enough for his 7th year with 1,000+.
Defensively, the Browns are lead by Inside Linebacker D'Qwell Jackson, whose 154 tackles lead the NFL last year, and Pro Bowl DT Shaun Rogers who managed 76 tackles and 4.5 sacks, both great numbers for an interior lineman. The team brought in several veterans for the defensive backfield to help bolster a very young secondary.
If the Browns could determine a clear cut starting QB and get solid play from that position once again, they could begin to turn things around from their huge downfall a year ago. I just don't see that being the case however. Their dreadful offense will return and be the downfall of yet another season in Cleveland. They might just find themselves in position to pick up Sam Bradford in next year's draft and try and start fresh.
Last Season: 4-12
2009 Prediction: 3-13
Pittsburgh Steelers
Key Additions: Keiwan Ratliff (CB), Shaun McDonald (WR), Alex Stepanovich (C)
Key Losses: Byron Leftwich (QB), Nate Washington (WR), Larry Foote (ILB), Gary Russell (RB), Bryant McFadden (CB), Kendal Simmons (G), Anthony Smith (S)
Draft Picks: Ziggy Hood (DT-Missouri), Kraig Urbik (G-Wisconsin), Mike Wallace (WR-Mississippi), Kennan Lewis (CB-Oregon St.), Joe Burnett (CB-Central Florida), Frank Summers (RB-UNLV), Ra'Shon Harris (DT-Oregon), A. Q. Shipley (C-Penn St.), David Johnson (TE-Arkansas St.)
The Pittsburgh Steelers won Super Bowl XLIII, their 6th Super Bowl title, with their trademark defense. The Steelers went 12-4 in the regular season, with all 4 of their losses coming at the hands of other playoff teams.The Steelers offense was solid as usual, but by no means prolific. Ben Roethlisberger lead the way at QB with 3,301 yards, 17 TDs, and 15 INTs on the year. Willie Parker and Mewelde Moore combined for nearly 1,400 yards on the ground and 5 TDs apiece. As usual, Hines Ward lead the team in receiving with just over 1,000 yards and 7 scores. The only real changes heading into this year offensively are backup QB Byron Leftwich moving on to Tampa and 3rd WR Nate Washington heading to the Titans. Expect more of the same efficient, smash mouth football from the Steelers' offense this year.
Defensively, Pittsburgh was the class of the NFL again last season, allowing a shade under 14 points per game. James Harrison was named the NFL's Defensive MVP after a 101 tackle, 16 sack campaign, and was accompanied by linebackers Lawrence Timmons, LaMarr Woodley, and the now departed Larry Foote as perhaps the best set in the league. Troy Polamalu had another Pro Bowl year at safety, picking up 7 interceptions on the season. Pittsburgh's defense was nothing short of punishing last season, and other than Foote moving on, little has changed.
Barring injuries, especially at quarterback, the Steelers should be the team to beat in the AFC North again this year, and perhaps in the conference as a whole. Pittsburgh's biggest challenges this season all come at Heinz Stadium, where they have only lost 3 times in the past 2 seasons. While I'm not sure they'll match last year's regular season record, they know how to turn it up when it counts and they will certainly be a force to reckon with in the postseason yet again.
Last Season : 12-4
2009 Prediction: 10-6
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