Before I get to my usual routine, there are a few things worth mentioning first.

One, the Bills are not the worst team in the league. I'm 100% convinced of this. I know their record would tell you they're the worst, but I really believe there are about five other teams that could be thrown into that discussion. Records don't always dictate a clear picture of who is better than who. For more on that, read my comments below about Kansas City in the top ten.

Two, after news broke that Randy Moss was waived by Minnesota, it started a flood of message board experts claiming that the Bills should go after him (since they have top priority on waivers). I don't think I can actually make my font big enough to express how I feel, but the Bills claiming Randy Moss would be the single dumbest thing they've done since they gave Dick Jauron a contract extension. As I tell you below in my 'good' section, the Bills receivers have been one of the bright spots for the team this year. What would bringing Randy Moss to Buffalo accomplish? He's got a major attitude (it's no accident that New England traded him and now Minnesota waived him), he's a free agent at the end of the season, the Bills have no shot at the playoffs and he would take away valuable reps that Stevie Johnson and Roscoe Parrish are getting. I'm so against this that I'm actually pounding my fist on the desk. Anybody that thinks Buffalo should do this needs their head examined. Now.

The Good: The Bills receivers (Johnson, Evans, Parris), The Bills' third down efficiency

Ryan Fitzpatrick struggled for the most part on Sunday, which is to be expected because he is what he is. For as much as I've praised him so far this season, I feel that I've also said time and time again that he has his bad moments and this is why he isn't the long-term answer at QB for the Bills. I think he'll serve as a great mentor to a rookie QB next season and he knows his place with the team. Despite his struggles yesterday, the combo of Parrish, Evans and Johnson hauled in 14 receptions for 159 yards and one touchdown. Parrish had one of the bigger plays of the game with a 37 yard reception on third and long, but Johnson had the biggest with a fourth and goal and the game on the line touchdown reception.

I honestly can't say enough about Stevie Johnson right now. He has caught at least one touchdown in five straight games. I'd be hard pressed to remember when a Bills' receiver has consistently performed like this, and that isn't even factoring in the whole 7^th round pick. It's pretty impressive to say the least. Plus he wants to be called Stevie. I like that.

Roscoe Parrish now has 26 receptions on the season and is nine shy of a career best. This is a credit to Chan Gailey, even though I know people feel like bashing the guy to no end right now. Parrish also had a huge 33 yard punt return near the end of the game that should've helped seal the victory, but alas, the Bills found another way to lose (which is fine by me in the grand scheme of things).

Another overlooked stat in yesterday's game was the Bills going 11/23 on third down conversions. For a team that typically got to third and long and just assumed they'd punt the ball away, Buffalo has been converting their fair share of third downs lately. For the overall season, Buffalo is 37/97 on third down. To put this into perspective, the Chicago Bears have converted 15/84 third downs for the ENTIRE 2010 SEASON. Seriously. Think about it. Buffalo converted four less third down opportunities on Sunday than the Bears have in seven games.

The Bad: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Todd Haley, Rian Lindell, Brian Moorman

Overall, Fitzpatrick didn't have an awful day. He threw for 223 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Considering what we've seen for the past decade, not terrible. But he was off his game for most of the first half and pretty much blew the game when he badly overthrew C.J. Spiller in overtime. Spiller was split wide and beat his guy by a solid 10 yards and had the game won, but Fitzpatrick missed him and it wasn't even close. Those are the throws someone like Andrew Luck might make. Just thought I'd throw that out there.

I'm not going to hammer Chain Gailey for his play calling like most people want to do. I've seen a lot of criticism of Gailey for his pass-happy routine near the end of the game. I'm assuming most of those people just didn't see the entire game. To want him to run the ball and get in field goal position is assuming the Bills would be able to run the ball. Fred Jackson was averaging 3.2 yards per carry and I highly doubt he would've moved the ball very much near the end. And somehow throughout all of this, it's like most people didn't even notice what Todd Haley was doing.

This guy isn't even on the same planet during the game. With the score tied 0-0 in the second quarter, he threw away an easy field goal opportunity to go for it on fourth down and the Chiefs turned the ball over. Look, I'm all for gutsy coaching and taking chances, but not in a close game in the second quarter. As it turns out, overtime could've been avoided had he taken the points. Also worth noting; Jamaal Charles averaged eight yards per carry on 22 carries, yet Haley continued to let Matt Cassel throw the ball. Cassel is awful. I'm convinced the Chiefs win despite him and I'm pretty sure the same can be said for Haley. If Kansas City makes the playoffs (most likely), Haley will no doubt cost them a game with his decisions.

I really do like Rian Lindell so I'll keep this short and sweet. Bottom line, his missed kick in overtime cost the Bills the win. I won't put it on his shoulders since the game could've been over several times before that, but it needs to be mentioned. Now he did make it the first time, but the stupid timeout rule came into effect and he missed his second try. Overall I think Lindell is one of the most consistent kickers in the game and rarely gets credit because he plays for Buffalo. It's also worth mentioning that Kansas City's field looked like a sandbox by the end of the game and the winds were swirling like crazy, so it's not like the 53 yard kick was a chip-shot by any means. Again, worth bringing up but I'm in no way blaming Lindell for yesterday.

Same goes for Moorman. He's largely looked at as the best Bills' player of the decade. Sad, isn't it? But with a tie game looking like a real possibility, Moorman shanked the punt and gave Kansas City decent field position to drive down and win it. I'm pretty sure if he pins them inside the 15 yard line, Kansas City doesn't make it down in time.

The Ugly: Run defense, lack of turnovers

I think by now we've established how bad the Bills' run defense is. I said a few weeks ago that teams should prepare for career days and yesterday was no exception. I said before the game that Kansas City would probably rush for 250 yards and I was close, they hit 274 by the end of the game. I'm seriously dreading the Minnesota game against Adrian Peterson. It gives me nightmares (not literally).

Also ugly, the fact that the Bills can't force any turnovers. And hey, it's not like they don't get a chance. George Wilson let a sure interception go right through his hands. At the time, Steve Tasker felt like mentioning on the CBS broadcast that defenders are typically defenders because they don't have the hands for offense. I guess the fact that Wilson is an ex-wide receiver didn't factor into that statement. Tasker is awful at what he does now. However, I digress. After having a boat-load of interceptions last season, the Bills have one this season. It's pretty bad. With Buffalo losing all these close games, you would have to think that a few turnovers here and there would really help their cause. Of course, actually winning the games rules out the chance at drafting Andrew Luck, so maybe they are doing us a favor and we just haven't realized it yet.



NFL Top 10

1. New England Patriots (3) – Here's a scary thought about New England. I think they are way better without Randy Moss. Yes, the offense was much more explosive with Moss, but New England didn't win their three Super Bowls with an explosive offense. And in fact, they lost their one Super Bowl with that explosive offense. When New England was winning championships, they were doing it with a bend but don't break defense and a dink and dunk offense. That is officially what they are right now and I'm frightened and how it's going to turn out.

2. New York Giants (4) – I think I'm half crazy to put an NFC team this high and I think the overall conference is so inferior, but it's hard to ignore that they are tops right now and riding a four game winning streak. So far my favorite part of the Giants' season has been the emergence of Hakeem Nicks in the fantasy world. It's been a pure delight.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (1) – For sure, I thought Pittsburgh was the best team heading into Sunday night but I can't ignore an ugly loss to New Orleans. Keep in mind, Cleveland came into the Superdome exactly one week ago and hammered the Saints. The irony is off the charts for that one. Luckily they have Cincinnati coming up this week, so they should be able to get back on track with an easy win.

4. New York Jets (2) – If the Jets want to contend for a Super Bowl, getting shutout at home by Green Bay isn't really the way to do it. I'll be honest, with it being on at the same time as the Bills, I literally saw zero plays from this game. But judging by the numbers, it looks like The Sanchize had one of "those games" yesterday. Two games upcoming against Detroit and Cleveland should help right the ship though.

5. Baltimore Ravens (5) – I neglected to right about the Ravens game against Buffalo but it's the sole reason why I can't move them up. They were playing the league's worst run defense and still let Joe Flacco sling the ball all over the field. They also allowed over 500 yards at home to the Bills' offense. Maybe they didn't take the Bills seriously; it's a real possibility, but if left me less than convinced that they will take down Pittsburgh by the end of the season. They barely beat the Steelers by three points without Ben Roethlisberger. It's a fact that people are ignoring right now.

6. Indianapolis Colts (10) – As of right now, I feel that Indy is about fifth best team in the AFC, but I'd be hard pressed to pick against them in the playoffs. I'll be interested to see how they continue this season with all the mounting injuries. Rule of thumb: You can never rule out a QB as good as Peyton Manning.

7. Atlanta Falcons (8) – Atlanta controls their own destiny for the NFC South. There is no way I think Tampa Bay is for real and New Orleans is week to week at this point. I'd feel more confident in Atlanta had they not laid a huge egg against Philadelphia a few weeks ago. It's hard to trust them after that.

8. New Orleans (9) – New Orleans got a huge win against a very good Pittsburgh team, but I can't ignore the awful outing they had against Cleveland. It might not ruin their season, but it's a red flag in my eyes.

9. Houston Texans (6) – I'm not even sure why I'm ranking Houston in the top 10 anymore. The last three years Houston has finished 8-8, 8-8 and 9-7. I really don't think I have any reason to think they'll be a double digit win team this season.

10. Kansas City Chiefs (NR) – I think it would be wrong to not include Kansas City at 5-2, but I honestly don't totally feel that they are worthy of the 10 spot. It took them 75 minutes yesterday to score 13 points against the league's worst running defense. Jamaal Charles ran for 177 yards, so they let Matt Cassel throw the ball. Dwayne Bowe dropped a sure touchdown in the first quarter. Todd Haley is insane. Raiders, Broncos, Cardinals, Seahawks, Broncos, Chargers, Ram, Titans and Raiders. Seriously, have you ever seen an easier schedule? They might be the worst 13-3 team to make the playoffs ever. Their wins this year have been against the Chargers, Browns, 49ers, Jaguars and Bills. Combined record: 11-27. Their two losses came against Indianapolis and Houston. Combined record: 8-4. You be the judge.

Just Missing Out: Philadelphia, Green Bay, Oakland (?)

Teams I didn't consider for .0001 of a second: Minnesota, Buffalo, Denver, Dallas



Bills future QB Update (in the ever-changing order that I like them):

1. Andrew Luck – 19/26, 192 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT (Season: 1920 yards, 20 TDs, 6 INTs)

2. Christian Ponder – 17/28, 196 yards, 1 TD (Season: 1383 yards, 13 TDs, 7 INTs)

3. Ryan Mallett – 27/44, 409 yards, 3 TDs (Season: 2449 yards, 18 TDs, 7 INTs)

4. Jake Locker – 7/14, 64 yards, 2 INTs (Season: 1678 yards, 14 TDs, 6 INTs)

Denver Broncos

Key Additions: Andra Davis (LB), LaMont Jordan (RB), Chris Simms (QB), Kyle Orton (QB), Brandon Lloyd (WR), Correll Buckhalter (RB), Brian Dawkins (S), Jabar Gaffney (WR), Renaldo Hill (S), Darrell Reid (DE)

Key Losses: Jay Cutler (QB), Selvin Young (RB), Dre Bly (CB), Marlon McCree (CB), Boss Bailey (LB), Patrick Ramsey (QB), Tom Nalen (C), Ebenezer Ekuban (DE), Tatum Bell (RB), Michael Pittman (RB)

Draft Picks: Knowshon Moreno (RB-Georgia), Robert Ayers (DE-Tennessee), Alphonso Smith (CB-Wake Forest), Darcel McBath (S-TTU), Richard Quinn (TE-UNC), David Bruton (S-Notre Dame), Seth Olson (G-Iowa), Kenny McKinley (WR-South Carolina), Tom Brandstater (QB-Fresno State), Blake Schueter (C-TCU)

The Broncos had a 2008 season that they probably wish they could forget. They came out of the gates by lighting up the scoreboards but ended the season with a huge collapse that included three straight losses and a vacation scheduled for wildcard weekend.

The first order of business this offseason for Denver was to fire long-time head coach Mike Shannahan. This came as a shock to almost every Broncos fan on the planet, including Jay Cutler. Cutler had been babied ever since he came into the league by Shannahan so obviously this didn’t go over to well with him. Shortly after hiring former Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, the rumors started to spread that McDaniels wanted to bring Matt Cassel over from New England. The mere thought of these rumors sent Cutler into a tizzy that wouldn’t be solved until his eventual trade to Chicago. Needless to say, McDaniels probably could’ve done a little better going into his first head coaching job than he did.

Denver acquired QB Kyle Orton from Chicago in the Cutler trade. This is an obvious downgrade as I’m not even sure Orton should be starting in Denver. If you recall while in Chicago, Orton was good enough to not lose while the defense won most of the games. The minute Rex Grossman was healthy; he took the job back from Orton. When you’re losing your starting job to Rex Grossman, well, it isn’t good.

Denver also brought in Chris Simms, a QB who hasn’t seen a significant amount of playing time since he was the starter in Tampa Bay. Simms lost his job due to injury and the never ending QB carousel in Tampa. McDaniels quickly crowned Orton the starter heading into camp but I think there should be an open competition. As I wrote in my free agent rankings, Simms could be a solid pickup for the team that signed him. I have confidence that now healthy, Simms can be a productive starter in the league still.

On the flip side, Josh McDaniels proved last season that he was able to work with much lesser talent, so he may just be the person to get the job done with Orton. Then again, it could’ve been the combination of Bill Belichek, Randy Moss, and Wes Welker that helped Matt Cassel succeed in New England. I guess we’ll find out later on this year now that McDaniels is in Denver and Cassel is starting in Kansas City.

Either way, the Broncos are going into this season with a new GM, coach, and starting quarterback. Not to mention last season the Broncos had a terrible defense and while they added Brian Dawkins, I still see plenty of struggles for the D. They are literally starting over so I see plenty of struggles this season. Of course you never know, an 8-8 record did win the division last season.

Last Season: 8-8
2009 Prediction: 6-10


Kansas City Chiefs

Key Additions: Travis Daniels (CB), Monty Beisel (LB), Bobby Engram (WR), Zach Thomas (LB), Amani Toomer (WR), Matt Cassel (QB), Mike Vrabel (LB), Tony Curtis (TE), Terrance Copper (WR), Mike Goff (G)

Key Losses: Damon Huard (QB), Quinn Gray (QB), Tony Gonzalez (TE), Patrick Surtain (CB), Donnie Edwards (LB), David Macklin (CB), Pat Thomas (LB)

Draft Picks: Tyson Jackson (DE-LSU), Alex Magee (DT-Purdue), Donald Washington (CB-OSU), Colin Brown (T-Missouri), Quinten Lawrence (WR-McNeese State), Javarris Williams (RB-Tennessee St), Jake O’Connell (TE-Miami University), Ryan Succop (K-South Carolina)

The Chiefs finished with a terrible 2-14 record last year but don’t let that fool you. They lost quite a few close games and weren’t nearly as bad as a 2-14 record would lead you to believe. They started out the season by losing their starting QB Brodie Croyle to injury. To make matters worse, it took about nine seconds for backup Damon Huard to also go down. This is when Tyler Thigpen stepped in and put up very respectable numbers (while destroying multiple fantasy leagues). Thigpen finished the season with 2608 yards, 18 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, a 76.0 QB rating, 386 rushing yards, and three rushing touchdowns. Not bad for a third string QB never expected to play a meaningful game.

During the offseason the Chiefs brought Scott Pioli in from New England. I guess if you’re going to be rebuilding, it’s smart to bring someone in who knows a thing or two about building a team. The Chiefs then hired Todd Haley, formerly of the NFC Champion Arizona Cardinals, to take over as head coach for Herm Edwards. Then came the true rebuilding process.

The Chiefs went out and acquired Matt Cassel and Mike Vrabel from the Patriots for a mere second round pick. The jury is out on whether or not Cassel is the real deal or a one year wonder that was a product of the New England system, but Kansas City definitely believes in him as evidenced by his long term contract extension. I don’t necessarily think it’s fair that Cassel got the huge extension while Tyler Thigpen wasn’t even given a chance to compete for the job, but who am I? It’s a funny world we live in. Cassel was a career backup in college to superstar Matt Leinart and now in the NFL Cassel is the one with the big money deal and starting job while Leinart is fighting just to be second string in Arizona.

While the Chiefs are definitely rebuilding, I like the direction they are heading in. I’m not sure if like the trade of Tony Gonzalez but I feel their hands were tied with that decision and they had to trade him out of respect. Along with Vrabel they brought in Zach Thomas and Amani Toomer. If anything, the younger guys will have someone to look up to and learn from during this rebuilding process. Their season will really depend on whether or not Cassel can succeed in his new surroundings. If I were a Chiefs fan, this wouldn’t excite me too much.

Last Season: 2-14
2009 Prediction: 6-10


Oakland Raiders

Key Additions: Khalif Barnes (T), Samson Satele (C), Jeff Garcia (QB), Lorenzo Neal (FB), Gary Russell (RB), Charlie Frye (QB), Greg Ellis (LB)

Key Losses: Jake Grove (C), Rashad Baker (S), Ronald Curry (WR), Justin Griffith (FB), Andrew Walter (QB), Marques Tuiasosopo (QB), Ashley Lelie (WR), Tony Stewart (TE), Gibril Wilson (S), Derrick Burgess (DE)

Draft Picks: Darrius Heyward-Bey (WR-Maryland), Michael Mitchell (S-Ohio), Matt Shaughnessy (DE-Wisconsin), Louis Murphy (WR-Florida), Slade Norris (OLB-Oregon State), Stryker Sulak (DE-Missouri), Brandon Myers (TE-Iowa)

Last year saw the continuation of the Oakland Raiders traveling circus as ringmaster Al Davis continued to embarrass the fans, organization, and every player wearing silver and black. It only took three weeks for the Raiders to fire head coach Lane Kiffin and make headlines in their own unique way. Oh no, they weren’t just going to fire their head coach, they were going to hold a press conference where he would be slandered in every possible way by the owner. Lane Kiffin might be is a huge idiot, but he probably didn’t deserve that treatment from Davis.

After finishing a surprising and mildly successful 5-11, everybody expected the Raiders to try and re-group during the offseason. They decided to remove the interim tag and hire Tom Cable as their head coach. I’m not sure if this was the best move (considering Jim Fassel was practically begging for a job from Oakland) but when you’re the Raiders and you have a meddling owner; you take what you can get. That leads us to the draft. Rather than repeat myself, I encourage anybody who hasn’t read my draft recap to click here and get my thoughts on that spectacle.

I’m not here to completely bash the Raiders though; they did make a few good moves during the offseason. They brought in former Dallas Cowboys LB Greg Ellis for one. The Raiders defense, no matter how bad the overall team is, has been one of the few highlights for the team. Adding a proven player like Ellis will only make the defense that much stronger. They also added journeyman QB Jeff Garcia. Although he isn’t slated to start, I see this happening by Week Six. All of the pressure is landing squarely on JaMarcus Russell right now. He has shown flashes of being a competent QB but hasn’t completely put it together yet. Now he has a veteran who is itching to get on the field and oh yeah, is proficient in the West Coast Offense. Things aren’t looking so good for JaMarcus right now.

Last Season: 5-11
2009 Prediction: 5-11


San Diego Chargers

Key Additions: Kevin Burnett (LB)

Key Losses: Igor Olshansky (DE), Mike Goff (G)

Draft Picks: Larry English (LB-Northern Illinois), Louis Vasquez (G-TTU), Vaughn Martin (DT-Western Ontario), Tyronne Green (G-Auburn), Gartrell Johnson (RB-Colorado St), Brandon Hughes (CB-Oregon State), Kevin Ellison (S-USC), Demetrius Byrd (WR-LSU)

Despite winning the AFC West last season and advancing to the second round of the playoffs, I think most fans would agree that the Chargers had a somewhat disappointing 2008 season. They came into the season with Super Bowl level expectations but it took a Week 17 victory/ epic collapse by Denver to sneak into the playoffs with a record of 8-8.

I don’t think anybody (including myself) thought the Chargers would do a whole lot once in the playoffs, but they shocked the Indianapolis Colts with an overtime victory that once again brought the overtime rules into question. (The sooner the NFL switches to college overtime rules the better.) After grabbing an early lead in Pittsburgh, the wheels finally came off for San Diego and they were sent back home with yet another playoff loss.

Last season the Chargers battled several injuries to key players like LaDanian Tomlinson and their best defensive player, Shawne Merriman. Getting those players back this season will be a huge boost, which explains why San Diego didn’t have a very active offseason in terms of free agent signings. They were able to lockup Darren Sproles, who even with a healthy Tomlinson, should be looking at a very productive 2009 season.

LaDanian Tomlinson is poised for a breakout season this year. A lot of people counted him out last year after all of his injuries and I’m sure he is ready to prove himself. In fact, based on where he is being drafted in fantasy drafts right now, I think many people expect this out of him.

If the Chargers can stay healthy and play football up to what they are capable of, the AFC West is as good as theirs. With the other three teams re-building/sucking, the Chargers would actually have to try to lose the division. They have been deep in the playoffs the last two seasons so if they do end up staying healthy, there is a good chance we’ll be watching the Chargers on Super Bowl Sunday.

Last Season: 8-8
2009 Prediction: 10-6