"It's gonna be rough on Buffalo." – Ray Lewis

Baltimore heads into this week at 4-2 and rather angry, as you can tell by the above quote. I have a problem with the quote itself, which I suppose I can address right now.

I understand it's because Baltimore is angry for blowing a 10 point lead in the fourth quarter at New England. I understand that. But the fact that Ray Lewis immediately called out Buffalo reminded me of what a bully would do to the losers in high school. Maybe Lewis would've been better off saying, "We couldn't handle New England, AGAIN, so we're gonna come home and beat down on the lowly Bills so we can feel better about ourselves." Essentially that's what he said. But whatever. I guess that's what happens when you're one of the worst teams in the league. Hold on while I go beat up a 10 year old and steal his lunch money.

Okay, I'm back. Baltimore might be one of the best 4-2 teams in the league considering their schedule so far. They've lost the two games by a combined eight points. Also, both losses were on the road. Among their wins were road victories against the Jets and Steelers, two of the best teams in the league. I don't know who makes these schedules but someone slighted Baltimore with two home games and four away to start the season. Then again, with a home game against Buffalo, it all evens out.

We might have forgotten this over the bye week, but Buffalo returns to the field with virtually no strengths. As if I needed a reminder on this, I read this quote on Wednesday from an article on Buffalo Rumblings about Buffalo's Heavy-Front Run Defense:

In a Week 5 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Buffalo Bills unveiled a new "heavy" run defensive front designed to help shore up the league's worst run defense. Though the Jags still ran for 216 yards in a 36-26 victory, the heavy package will apparently remain a part of coordinator George Edwards' defensive arsenal moving forward.

WHAT?!?!

So let me get this straight. The Bills developed a "new" defensive "strategy" specifically aimed at stopped the run and somehow still allowed 216 yards rushing. AND it will continued to be used going forward? Gee, I wonder why the Bills will be drafting first overall this April.

This game will also rub a little salt in the wound for bitter Bills fans as Baltimore currently employs Haloti Ngata and Michael Oher. For those that may not remember, the Bills passed on Ngata for the opportunity to draft the biggest mouth on Twitter. Oher was taken in the first round in 2009, but Buffalo opted to draft Aaron Maybin instead. That sound you hear is the city of Buffalo throwing up right now.

Despite all the Bills bashing I did above, the game might be a little closer than people think. The Vegas line is currently at -13 for Baltimore, which I think is a little high. The Ravens have only won one game by more than 10 points this season. The others were by one, three and seven. The game against Cleveland was by seven, which makes me believe the Bills can at least keep this somewhat close.

I know that the Ravens have the reputation as a great defensive team, but this isn't the same Baltimore team that took home the Lombardi Trophy based on their defense. In their game against Cleveland, the Ravens allowed Peyton Hillis to run for 144 yards on 22 carries. Last week against New England, Danny Woodhead ran for 63 yards on 11 carries. I'm no expert, but couldn't Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller chew up some yardage and clock against this defense?

Here is where the game will get ugly. The Bills are dead last in the league, allowing an average of 182.4 yards per game on the ground. I foresee a huge day for Ray Rice and when he's tired, go ahead and toss Willis McGahee into the game. Willis isn't the back he was in the past, but don't you think he'll be a little amped up for this game? If you think he doesn't still hate Buffalo, you're fooling yourself. Both of these backs are going to go off on Sunday.

Buffalo hasn't been great against the pass either, but luckily for them, Joe Flacco isn't exactly lighting up opposing defenses this year. Flacco has yet to eclipse the 300 yard mark in a game this season, which puts him in perfect company with every Bills QB from the past three years. In fact, Flacco has thrown for 1401 yards, seven touchdowns and six interceptions in six games this season. In half the amount of games, Ryan Fitzpatrick has thrown for 595 yards, seven touchdowns and two interceptions.

With all of this being said, the Bills still aren't going to win the game. In fact, I think I just spent the previous four previous paragraphs convincing myself that Buffalo will simply cover the spread. What can I say? It's been a fun 2010 season for Buffalo so far.

Prediction: Baltimore 31, Buffalo 20.



My other NFL Picks (in bold):

Cincinnati @ Atlanta

Washington @ Chicago

Philadelphia @ Tennessee

Jacksonville @ Kansas City

Pittsburgh @ Miami

Cleveland @ New Orleans

St. Louis @ Tampa Bay

San Francisco @ Carolina

Arizona @ Seattle

New England @ San Diego

Oakland @ Denver

Minnesota @ Green Bay

NY Giants @ Dallas



Last Week: 8-6

Entire Season: 52-36



Scott's Picks:

Cincinnati @ Atlanta

Washington @ Chicago

Philadelphia @ Tennessee

Jacksonville @ Kansas City

Pittsburgh @ Miami

Cleveland @ New Orleans

St. Louis @ Tampa Bay

San Francisco @ Carolina

Buffalo @ Baltimore

Arizona @ Seattle

New England @ San Diego

Oakland @ Denver

Minnesota @ Green Bay

NY Giants @ Dallas



Last Week: 9-5

Entire Season: 53-35





Fantasy Update: Thanks to Jeff Fisher, Chris Johnson and the other Titans for running up the score in a blowout; I'm now losing 2-1 in our fantasy bet. That's right; Scott beat me in the one league we're close in because the Titans had to go for it on 4^th and 5 with under two minutes remaining in a 23-3 game. Whatever.

As I said late last week, going forward I would incorporate my Bills postgame review with an NFL Top 10. I like to consider it a compromise from me quitting the power rankings overall. Since the Bills were on a bye this past week, I see no reason to talk about them. So let's make this short and sweet and just skip right ahead to the NFL Top 10.

1. Pittsburgh Steelers (NR) – I've pretty much started preparing myself with the idea that Pittsburgh is going to win another Super Bowl. Wow, that made me sick just typing that. Right now they are lumped together with the Jets and Patriots for the best record in the NFL (the Jets are a ½ game better, but have a bye this week to even things out), but neither of those teams would have the same record if they started Dennis Dixon and Charlie Batch for the first four games. And that is why I have Pittsburgh at number one. They are only going to get better.

The Ravens did beat them at home, but it also took everything the Ravens had to win in the final two minutes of the game. It took the Ravens absolute best to barely win the game, while Pittsburgh was handicapped by playing the game without an NFL caliber starting QB. I know it was against Cleveland, but Roethlisberger looked pretty good, throwing for three touchdowns yesterday. That was basically opening day for him. So not only will he continue to get better as he shakes the rust off, but that five weeks off (rape suspension + bye week) also allowed him to enter Week Six completely healthy; meanwhile QBs like Mark Sanchez, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning have been taking hits and getting beat up.

2. NY Jets (NR) – Man, did the Jets ever get lucky against Denver on Sunday. With time running down, Sanchez heaved the ball deep, praying for pass interference. Of course he got it and LaDainian Tomlinson easily scored and won the game. You might remember this move from the Bears/Packers Monday Night game a few weeks ago when Jay Cutler pulled a similar stunt on the game winning drive. And this is why the pass interference rules need to change. It's a cop-out for a team struggling and desperate at the end of the game. I complain quite a bit about the way NCAA football operates, but two things they have 100% correct are overtime and pass interference rules.

3. New England Patriots (NR) – I was pretty shocked to see New England defeat Baltimore yesterday. I watched Buffalo pretty much march all over New England's awful defense and figure Joe Flacco and Ray Rice would have a field day. Apparently not. The stats were decent for both, but the 20 total points definitely wasn't. You know what else wasn't good? Tom Brady whining like a little baby when he was hit after the pass. If I were a Patriots fan, I'd be so embarrassed with his antics. I liked the fact that he got face to face with Terrell Suggs after the play, but it doesn't make up for temper tantrum seconds before. Brady officially reminds me of the rich kid that nobody likes in school, yet people still want to be friends with him so they can swim in his pool on the weekends. Just another reason to dislike Boston.

4. NY Giants (NR) - The Giants didn't exactly handle Detroit like I thought they would, but a win is a win. The tough part of their schedule is about to start. They have 10 games remaining, six of those against Washington, Dallas and Philadelphia. The others against Green Bay, Minnesota, Jacksonville and Seattle. Only the Jacksonville game looks like a sure win at this point which makes me wonder just how good the Giants will be. Right now I have them fourth but they still have a lot to prove in the upcoming weeks.

5. Baltimore Ravens (NR) – Every single time I want to think Baltimore is ready to take that next step, they slip and fall down. Despite that, they are 4-2 with road wins at Pittsburgh and the Jets. That's still pretty impressive, but I hate how inconsistent they are. I'm pretty they will be taking their frustrations out on Buffalo this Sunday, so I have that to look forward to. I see at least five definite wins on their remaining schedule, which means they are still looking good in terms of the playoffs. It won't mean much when they have to go to Heinz Field in January so they can lose again though.

6. Houston Texans (NR) – Houston really frustrates me. During Sunday's game, I was sure that Kansas City was going to win and even sent a text to Scott that Houston peeked during Week One. Then they come back and pull the rug out from under the Chiefs. So now they are 4-2 at the bye, first place in the AFC South, with a rematch against Indianapolis looming. I'm really hesitant to put Houston this high because I have a hard time trusting them. Every time we think they're good, they finish the season 8-8 and we peg them as a super sleeper for next season. I'll give them a high ranking for now but if they lose to Indianapolis in two weeks, they'll be in class with the Dolphins.

7. Philadelphia Eagles (NR) – Sometimes I love the NFL. We have teams like the Bills, Browns, 49ers and others who barely have one NFL caliber starting QB. Then we have a team like the Eagles with both Michael Vick and Kevin Kolb. First it was Kolb's job, then he gets injured and Vick snatched it away. Then Vick gets hurt and Kolb lights Atlanta up. What a problem to have. I can only imagine the arguments between fans right now. After living through the Rob Johnson/Doug Flutie nightmare, I fear for QB controversies such as this one.

(If you don't think there is one, wake up)

I know that Andy Reid says it's a good problem to have, which I can agree that it's much better than having two awful QBs to choose from, but I still don't envy him at all. I know he committed to Vick before the injury, but he also committed to Kolb and changed his mind. So basically I've learned that we can't trust a word he says. Honestly, how do you sit Kolb after yesterday's performance? Kolb finished 23/29, 326 yards, three touchdowns and 133.6 QB rating. It's been YEARS since a Buffalo QB even came close to a day like that. I read a rumor somewhere along the line that the Eagles are showcasing Kolb and if that's true, I suggest that Buddy Nix gets on the phone right now. Granted I find that very hard to believe, but I'd be all for it at this point.

8. Atlanta Falcons (NR) – So I was pretty sure Atlanta was the top team in the NFC until they decided to play dead in Philly. What a horrendous performance. In my defense, it's been pretty difficult trying to get a grasp on things so far this season. I blame the NFL and parity for that. I'm starting to get the feeling that Atlanta will always be just good enough to lose in the second round, nothing more. I guess the good news for Falcons fans is that I'm almost always wrong with my predictions, so they have that going for them.

9. New Orleans Saints (NR) – Speaking of my predictions going wrong, I couldn't have been more wrong when I predicted a Tampa Bay upset over New Orleans. For the first time in the 2010 season, the Saints looked like the defending Super Bowl champs. They should destroy Cleveland next week by a similar margin, but then they have Pittsburgh at home. That will be the game that tells me whether or not New Orleans is for real this season or just hanging around with no real plans to repeat.

10. Indianapolis Colts (NR) – I know the Colts are 4-2, but they just don't look good overall. Their two losses were to division teams, while their four wins were outside of the division. What does that mean? Well it means a whole lot when it comes down to tie-breakers in December. The reason I still have the Colts at 10 is simply because of Peyton Manning. I just can't rule him out. He's too good and the Colts will always be a contender as long as he's lining up (which might literally be for another decade). But let it be known, the Colts are not the same powerhouse that they usually are. On the positive side of that, they most likely won't be able to rest their starters in the final weeks of the season, which is huge for people in fantasy playoffs. I'm excited.

Just Missing Out: Chicago, Tennessee, Kansas City, Washington, Miami

Teams I didn't consider for .0001 of a second: Buffalo, Cleveland, Carolina



Bills future QB Update (in the ever-changing order that I like them):

1. Andrew Luck – OFF (Season: 1538 yards, 16 touchdowns, 4 interceptions, 166.86 QB rating)

2. Jake Locker – 21/35, 286 yards, 5 touchdowns, 1 interception (Season: 1431 yards, 13 touchdowns, 4 interceptions, 132.56 QB rating)

3. Ryan Mallett – 10/15, 96 yards, 1 touchdown (Season: 1844 yards, 14 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, 168.11 QB rating)

Baltimore Ravens

Key Additions: Chris Carr (CB), L.J. Smith (TE), John Beck (QB), Kelley Washington (WR), Matt Birk (C), Dominique Foxworth (CB)

Key Losses: Bart Scott (LB), Jim Leonhard (S), Matt Stover (K), Kyle Boller (QB), Terrance Cooper (WR), Cory Ivy (CB), Lee Vickers (DE)

Draft Picks: Michael Oher (OT-Mississippi), Paul Kruger (DE/OLB-Utah), Lardarius Webb (CB-Nicholls St.), Jason Phillips (ILB-TCU), Davon Drew (TE-East Carolina), Cedric Peerman (RB-Virginia)

Baltimore is looking to build off a very successful season last year, in which they made it as far as the AFC Championship before getting knocked off by the eventual Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers. The team went 11-5 in the regular season and defeated Miami in the Wild Card Round, and then the Tennessee Titans in the Divisional Round of the playoffs.

Things will be looking a little different for the Ravens this season however as former Defensive Coordinator Rex Ryan is now the head coach of the New York Jets, and he took several players along for the ride off his highly ranked defense. The 2nd and 3rd highest tacklers on the team respectively, Bart Scott and Jim Leonhard are now gone. An aging Ray Lewis and Ed Reed will now look to others to step up in their place and help lead what has been the best part of this team for a long time now. Terrell Suggs has a large contract in hand that may help motivate him to fill that role, and young DT Haloti Ngata is quickly turning into one of the most disruptive forces on any defensive line in the NFL.

Offensively last year, the Ravens relied on rookie QB Joe Flacco to lead the team, and he did an admirable job. While his stats weren't mind blowing by any means, (2,971 yards, 14 TDs, 12 INTs) he played the role of the "effective game manager" quite nicely. The Ravens also employed a running back by committee with moderate success. Le'Ron McClain had 902 yards and 10 TDs, Willis McGahee (aka The Devil, at least from a fan of the Buffalo Bills perspective) had 671 yards and 7 TDs, and rookie Ray Rice chipped in with an additional 454 yards. This three headed monster makes for a solid Ravens' running game, but makes trying to decide which player to draft to your fantasy team a nightmare.

The Ravens are still going to have to contend with the Steelers for the AFC North division title this season, but should certainly be in the running for a wild card spot regardless. They may not match their 11 wins from last year, but expect them to be in the neighborhood again as long as the defense can stay healthy.

Last Season: 11-5
2009 Prediction: 10-6

Cincinnati Bengals

Key Additions: Laveranues Coles (WR), J.T. O'Sullivan (QB), Tank Johnson (DT), Roy Williams (S), Brian Leonard (FB)

Key Losses: Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB), T.J. Houshmandzadeh (WR), Glenn Holt (WR), Stacy Andrews (OT), Levi Jones (OT), Corey Mays (S), Mike Doss (S), Chris Perry (RB), Marcus Brown (CB), Ethan Kilmer (S)

Draft Picks: Andre Smith (OT-Alabama), Rey Maualuga (LB-USC), Michael Johnson (DE-Georgia Tech), Chase Coffman (TE-Missouri), Jonathan Luigs (C-Arkansas), Kevin Huber (P-Cincinnati), Morgan Trent (CB-Michigan), Bernard Scott (RB-Abilene Christian), Fui Vakapuna (RB-BYU), Clinton McDonald (DE-Memphis), Freddie Brown (WR-Utah)

The Bengals continued their decline in 2008, going 4-11-1 on the season, a season in which QB Carson Palmer played in only 4 games. The team struggled as a whole, but perhaps nobody more so than WR Chad Ochocinco (yes... that really is his name now, and yes... I really do laugh every time I read it). Ochocinco managed only 53 catches for 540 yards and 4 TDs on the season, by far the worst in all categories since his rookie season of 2001. T.J. Houshmandzadeh picked up the slack (92 for 904 and 4 TDs) to some extent, but he's now a Seattle Seahawk.

Houshmandzadeh's replacement comes in the form of former N.Y. Jet, Laveranues Coles, who managed 70 grabs for 850 yards and 7 TDs with Brett Favre throwing to him in 2008. The Bengals running game was weak last year as well, as Cedric Benson lead the team with just 747 yards and 2 TDs. Dhani Jones may have been the lone bright spot on the defense for Cinncy with his 116 tackles. Nobody else broke 100, and no player had more than 3 INTs or 3 sacks on the season, while the team as a whole gave up just under 23 points per game. That isn't an awful number, but when you consider that their anemic offense only scored a league worst 204 points, it obviously didn't get the job done.

In reality, nothing went right for this team last year. They were 1-11-1 at one point before winning their final 3 games of the season. We're talking about a team that used it's franchise tag on a kicker after all. Shayne Graham is a good one, but there's more than a few people out there that think maybe Houshmandzadeh would have made for a better use of the tag. The one bright spot that could be looked at is their draft in 2009. They got a great deal of talent, however, they have still yet to sign their top pick Andre Smith, nor are they even close to agreeing to a deal, as of the writing of this article.

Still, I see this team bouncing back to some extent this year. A healthy Carson Palmer could do wonders and I expect him to return closer to the form of the player we saw 3 seasons ago. Additionally, Chad Ochocinco should unquestionably be the #1 receiver again, which is what he craves. I can't imagine him not improving on last year's dismal effort. Call me crazy, but look for the Bengals to rebound a bit in 2009.

Last Season - 4-11-1
2009 Prediction - 7-9

Cleveland Browns

Key Additions: Brett Ratliff (QB), Robert Royal (TE), John St. Clair (OT), Mike Furrey (WR), Eric Barton (ILB), Ron Hood (CB), Corey Ivy (CB), Hank Poteat (S), David Patten (WR)

Key Losses: Bruce Gradkowski (QB), Ken Dorsey (QB), Joe Jurevicius, Kellen Winslow (TE), Seth McKinney (G), LeCharles Bentley (C), Sean Jones (S), Jason Wright (RB), Scott Young (G), Darnell Dinkins (TE), Andra Davis (ILB), Travis Daniels (CB), Steve Cargile (S),

Draft Picks: Alex Mack (C-Cal), Brian Robiskie (WR-Ohio St.), Mohamed Massaquoi (WR-Georgia), David Veikune (DE-Hawaii), Kaluka Maiava (LB-USC), Don Carey (CB-Norfolk St.), Coy Francies (CB-San Jose St.), James Davis (RB-Clemson)

Cleveland managed to be just ever so slightly worse than their cross state rivals last year, stumbling to a 4-12 record on the year. About the only thing the team really accomplished last season was to create a full fledged quarterback controversy heading into 2009.

Derek Anderson looked incredible in 2007 as the Browns went 10-6 and narrowly missed the playoffs, but 2008 was a very different year. Anderson struggled in the early going and was benched heading into Week 10 after a 3-6 start. Brady Quinn was officially handed the reigns to the team and went 1-1, but was injured in a Week 11 win at Buffalo. A broken finger sidelined Quinn for the season and Anderson quickly regained his starting job. 2 weeks later, Anderson tore his MCL in a loss against Indianapolis and he too was done for the year.

While Quinn didn't get much time as the starter, breaking down their statistics only leads you to see almost identical numbers between he and Anderson. Thus, heading into 2009, the two were competing for the starting job for the upcoming season. Neither looked spectacular in the first preseason game as they both threw an interception, though Quinn perhaps pulled slightly ahead in the battle. Either way, this debate isn't likely to be decided until close to the start of the regular season, and even then, I won't be surprised to see them go switch it up at some point during the year.

Only the Bengals were a worse offensive team last season, as the Browns managed just 14.5 points per game, and it doesn't look to be getting a whole lot better. Braylon Edwards production fell off dramatically last year with the quarterback carousel he had to deal with, and he also notoriously lead the league with 16 dropped balls on the year. He's entering a contract season however, and that tends to lead to bigger numbers more often than not. In terms of rushing, Jamal Lewis is still carrying the load for Cleveland. Lewis is only 29 years old but is entering his 10th year in the league and seems to be wearing down after years as a true work horse who carried the ball a ton of times year in and year out. He managed to hit 1,002 yards on the season, good enough for his 7th year with 1,000+.

Defensively, the Browns are lead by Inside Linebacker D'Qwell Jackson, whose 154 tackles lead the NFL last year, and Pro Bowl DT Shaun Rogers who managed 76 tackles and 4.5 sacks, both great numbers for an interior lineman. The team brought in several veterans for the defensive backfield to help bolster a very young secondary.

If the Browns could determine a clear cut starting QB and get solid play from that position once again, they could begin to turn things around from their huge downfall a year ago. I just don't see that being the case however. Their dreadful offense will return and be the downfall of yet another season in Cleveland. They might just find themselves in position to pick up Sam Bradford in next year's draft and try and start fresh.

Last Season: 4-12
2009 Prediction: 3-13

Pittsburgh Steelers

Key Additions: Keiwan Ratliff (CB), Shaun McDonald (WR), Alex Stepanovich (C)

Key Losses: Byron Leftwich (QB), Nate Washington (WR), Larry Foote (ILB), Gary Russell (RB), Bryant McFadden (CB), Kendal Simmons (G), Anthony Smith (S)

Draft Picks: Ziggy Hood (DT-Missouri), Kraig Urbik (G-Wisconsin), Mike Wallace (WR-Mississippi), Kennan Lewis (CB-Oregon St.), Joe Burnett (CB-Central Florida), Frank Summers (RB-UNLV), Ra'Shon Harris (DT-Oregon), A. Q. Shipley (C-Penn St.), David Johnson (TE-Arkansas St.)

The Pittsburgh Steelers won Super Bowl XLIII, their 6th Super Bowl title, with their trademark defense. The Steelers went 12-4 in the regular season, with all 4 of their losses coming at the hands of other playoff teams.

The Steelers offense was solid as usual, but by no means prolific. Ben Roethlisberger lead the way at QB with 3,301 yards, 17 TDs, and 15 INTs on the year. Willie Parker and Mewelde Moore combined for nearly 1,400 yards on the ground and 5 TDs apiece. As usual, Hines Ward lead the team in receiving with just over 1,000 yards and 7 scores. The only real changes heading into this year offensively are backup QB Byron Leftwich moving on to Tampa and 3rd WR Nate Washington heading to the Titans. Expect more of the same efficient, smash mouth football from the Steelers' offense this year.

Defensively, Pittsburgh was the class of the NFL again last season, allowing a shade under 14 points per game. James Harrison was named the NFL's Defensive MVP after a 101 tackle, 16 sack campaign, and was accompanied by linebackers Lawrence Timmons, LaMarr Woodley, and the now departed Larry Foote as perhaps the best set in the league. Troy Polamalu had another Pro Bowl year at safety, picking up 7 interceptions on the season. Pittsburgh's defense was nothing short of punishing last season, and other than Foote moving on, little has changed.

Barring injuries, especially at quarterback, the Steelers should be the team to beat in the AFC North again this year, and perhaps in the conference as a whole. Pittsburgh's biggest challenges this season all come at Heinz Stadium, where they have only lost 3 times in the past 2 seasons. While I'm not sure they'll match last year's regular season record, they know how to turn it up when it counts and they will certainly be a force to reckon with in the postseason yet again.

Last Season : 12-4
2009 Prediction: 10-6