Ranking The NHL Free Agents - Forwards
With NHL free agency getting started on July 1st, we’re going to take a quick look around the league to see who is available and who the best option is.
In my final installment of free agent rankings, today we’re looking at the forwards that will be available on July 1st. When I first glanced at the list I was somewhat surprised at the amount of talent that will be available, but of course, the salary cap will be a huge factor in signing these players.
You may notice after reading this that I didn’t include players like Joe Sakic and Mats Sundin. I’m guessing that if Sakic even plays, it will definitely be in Colorado, so why bother ranking him in the top tier. I didn’t even want to rank Sundin because of the mess he caused last season by waiting and waiting and waiting, so I just left him off completely. He isn’t a big deal anyways.
Please note: by the time this is posted some of these players may have their rights traded to their future new teams. This was written with the most current information that was available at the time so I apologize if some of these players won’t actually be available on July 1st.
1. Marian Hossa (Detroit) – I was pretty hesitant to put Hossa at number one for a few reasons but decided to do it anyways. For one, his disappearing act in the Finals would concern me greatly if I were a GM. Two, there was a rumored deal during the playoffs that he was already going to sign a long term extension with Detroit before he even hits the market, so writing all this and putting him at number one could be a complete waste of time. However, the deal hasn’t been announced yet (officially) so I decided to write about him anyways.
Since coming into the league, Hossa has been a dynamic player. Since the 2002-03 season in Ottawa, Hossa has tallied regular season point totals of 80, 82, 92, 100, 66 and 71. The fact that his two highest point totals were with Atlanta astounds me even more.
For the most part I don’t think Detroit regrets signing him. He scored an even 40 goals and added 31 assists during the regular season and despite the above mentioned disappearing act in the Finals, he still tallied 15 points in 23 playoff games. Honestly, if my team signed him I would be dancing in the streets, so with that in mind I had to rank him number one.
I’ll be interested to see what he does if Detroit doesn’t come through with the extension though. If he takes the big money from Edmonton it would be a complete flip flop from last off-season where he took the shorter deal to win a Cup and he would resign himself to a career of 8th place finishes in the Western Conference. Chances are his rights will be traded if he doesn’t sign with Detroit.
2. Martin Havlat (Chicago) - Since the 2002-03 season with Ottawa, Havlat has been nearly a point a game player. In that particular season he had 59 points in 67 games. In 2003-04 he had exactly 68 points in 68 games. In 2005-06 he only played in 18 games for Ottawa but still managed 16 points.
He was then dealt to Chicago where he tallied 57 points in 56 games, 27 points in 35 games and 77 points in 81 games this past season. He also racked up 15 points in 16 playoff games this past season for the Hawks.
If I were a GM, the number of games played would be a glaring concern for me. However, you have to take risks as a GM and I think the 28 year old Havlat would be worth the risk. I’m not an expert on hockey in Chicago but I would be surprised if they let Havlat go. Just taking in the fact that they have Nikolai Khabibulin’s monster deal coming off the books would indicate to me that they would have enough to re-sign Havlat.
3. Henrik/Daniel Sedin (Vancouver) – Since both of these guys want matching contracts and won’t split up, I don’t see any use in using up two spots in the rankings for them. Since the lockout Daniel Sedin has put up regular season point totals of 71, 84, 74 and 82. In the same time span, Henrik has scored an impressive 75, 81, 76 and 82 points. As you can see, whichever team decides to sign these guys are getting proven scorers and a deadly scoring line.
But here is the problem. Quite a few teams don’t have an ample amount of money to spend on July 1st, let alone throwing down the money for two of the top scorers at one time (which will be necessary to sign these guys). The Sedin twins have gone on record stating that whoever signs them will have to fork over matching 12 year/63 million dollar contracts. Granted that is a modest 5.25 million per season per player, but it might be hard to find a team with 10.5 million available to invest in two players that will play on the same line. Throw in the fact that they are both 28 and the contracts will last until they are 40, and things get a little bit shakier.
Regardless, whoever gets these guys will be improving their offense a great deal. If Vancouver lets them walk, they will surely notice the drop-off in offense next season. Like Hossa, if they don’t return to Vancouver I am looking for their rights to be traded. I would also like to thank an extremely unreliable hockey site for mentioning the Sabres with the Sedins and now getting my hopes up. Does anybody actually think that would happen? I don’t. I’d love it though.
4. Mike Cammalleri (Calgary) – Cammalleri racked up an impressive 82 points in 81 games last season for the Flames. It was his best season since the 2006-07 campaign with Los Angeles where he had 80 points in 81 games. With a salary of $3.6 million per season, Cammalleri will most likely be looking for a nice little pay raise once he officially hits the market.
I’d be careful in giving him a huge contract though. He only has four full seasons of NHL experience (the others were split between the NHL and AHL). In those four seasons, only the two I mentioned above were worthy of a big fat contract. Nevertheless, he will be worth the risk for some GM and will definitely get a nice new deal out of it.
5. Alexei Kovalev (Montreal) – When Kovalev seemed to give a crap last season; he was premier player and someone I worried about when he had the puck. He had a few issues which resulted in him being left at home during a brief road trip mid-way during the season. I’m not sure I can fully blame Kovalev for that though, since it seems like playing in Montreal isn’t exactly the easiest thing to do.
In the past two seasons for the Habs, Kovalev finished with 84 and 65 points. The 84 point season also helped Montreal lock up the top spot in the Eastern Conference (before falling in the second round). Kovalev is 36 years old and with the potentially shaky play last season, I’d be worried about throwing huge bucks at him. Of course, if my team did sign him I’d be able to talk myself into the deal in about .000034 seconds.
6. Marian Gaborik (Minnesota) – Since the lockout, Gaborik has been better than a point per game player. (66 in 65, 57 in 48, 83 in 77 and 23 in 17). In looking at those numbers however, one might notice that he hasn’t played a full NHL season since…well…ever. To his credit, he did play in 81 games in 2002-03, but I would still be worried about his durability.
This is one player I would be worried about if my team signed him. I would immediately be happy and think about all the goals that would be scored, but then I’d have to think about how risky the signing would be. Trust me; I root for the team that recently signed Tim Connolly to a 2 year / 9 million dollar deal. I talked myself into that deal by saying “if he can stay healthy, it will be a bargain.” Gaborik falls into the same category. Although he is more dynamic, he runs the same risk for whatever team signs him this summer. In my opinion, having one of those players on my team already is more than enough. I’ll pass.
7. Saku Koivu (Montreal) – Koivu is an interesting player hitting the market. He can definitely score, but he has battled quite a few health problems over the years that may drive his price down. This past season he scored 50 points in 65 games, which is a good number, but not worthy of $4.75 million per season (in my opinion). With him being such a mainstay in Montreal, it would be hard for me to picture him elsewhere. Then again, Montreal really has their hands full this summer. Speaking of that…
8. Alex Tanguay (Montreal) – Tanguay has bounced around a bit during his career, but has proven he can score wherever he goes. Before this past season, Tanguay hadn’t played in less than 69 games in his entire career. His last contract was slightly over $5 million per season, which in my mind is still too much for him. One would think Montreal is going to have to keep at least one of these three guys listed in the top 10, so it will be interesting to see who they choose. For the record, Tanguay is the youngest at 29 years of age.
9. Bill Guerin (Pittsburgh) – I hate putting Guerin this high on the list, but I feel like I have to. First, he is 38 years old and second, before being traded to Pittsburgh he was just collecting a paycheck from the Islanders. If he took a pay cut from his monster $4.5 million per season deal, he would be a decent signing. It would make the most sense for Pittsburgh to hang on to him since he seemed to mesh well with the Crosby gang, but I’ve already read rumors that he might head back to New York. I know…it makes no sense to me either.
(Ed note: Shortly after writing this the news broke that Bill Guerin did in fact take a pay cut to stay with Pittsburgh, a good deal for both sides. Score one for common sense!)
10. Nik Antropov (NY Rangers) – Antropov’s short stint in New York was partially successful, minus the fact that the Rangers went out in the first round. Before his trade to New York, Antropov was busy disappointing the Leafs organization and pissing off their fans. He has never played in a full 82 games and never finished with more than 56 points. One might wonder what exactly he is doing on the list. Well, for only making $2.15 million per season, most teams could get over his inconsistent play if he could still manage at least 50 points per season. Now whether he can actually do that or not, that’s another story.
11. Brian Gionta (New Jersey) – Gionta has been a fairly average player with the Devils but has been consistent during his time as well. Since the lockout he has finished the regular season with 89, 45, 53 and 60 points. There are always rumors of him coming to Buffalo but I suspect that’s mainly because he is from Rochester, NY. Maybe this is the year the Sabres go out and get him, but I’m not holding my breath. Don’t get me wrong, I wouldn’t mind having him, but it would definitely have to be at the right price. Just because he calls his home very close to Buffalo doesn’t mean he should be the highest priority.
12. Keith Tkachuk (St Louis) – Tkachuk has been a very consistent and productive player during his long NHL career. At the age of 37, I’m not sure how many years he has left in the tank. Minus the year he was rented to Atlanta (that worked out well), he has spent the better part of this decade with St. Louis. Unless I’m missing something, I don’t see him signing anywhere else this summer.
13. Erik Cole (Carolina) – Cole had a homecoming this season as he was shipped back to Carolina at the trade deadline. He wasn’t a huge factor during their miracle playoff run finishing with only five assists and zero goals in 18 playoff games. He did have 15 points in the last 17 games for Carolina so he can still be a productive scorer. He only had 27 points in 63 games for Edmonton so I would think that he plays best in Carolina’s system and would end up staying there again for another run at the Cup.
14. Mike Comrie (Ottawa) – Mike Comrie is an interesting player as he hits the market. I was doing a little research on his stats and they don’t look like anything Earth shattering, but I still wouldn’t mind seeing my team sign him on July 1st. Maybe it’s the fact that he seems to burn Buffalo every time they face him. Yeah, that must be it. At the age of 28 he is still fairly young and should be a productive player for whoever signs him.
15. Mike Knuble (Philadelphia) – Knuble has been a consistent threat during the last four seasons in Philadelphia. He has finished with 65, 54, 55 and 47 points in the last four regular season campaigns. At the age of 36, he may only get a short term deal, but I wouldn’t be opposed to having him on my team. In four of the last five seasons he has played in all 82 regular season games. That kind of durability can be hard to come by these days. I foresee him moving on only because Philly’s cap situation is pretty muddled already and that was before they acquired Chris Pronger from Anaheim.
957. Maxim Afinogenov (Buffalo) – When Buffalo lets Afinogenov walk this summer, it will be the definition of “addition by subtraction”. This guy can’t leave Buffalo fast enough as far as I’m concerned. I just have to wonder what part of his game the Sabres will miss the most. The blazing speed? The turnovers? The spin-o-rama into a subsequent turnover? The missing of the net? The non-scoring? It’s so hard to decide.
1047. Miroslav Satan (Pittsburgh) – One of the most frustrating factors in watching the Pens hoist the Stanley Cup was knowing that Miroslav Satan is going to have his name forever etched into the Cup. Seriously, has there ever been a more non-deserving player win a championship? Well, Rob Johnson does own his very own Super Bowl ring so I guess Satan has that going for him.
NHL Conference Finals
While working out at the gym, a person needs to be in the right mindset. It’s the reason why so many people (including myself) create specific playlists on their MP3 player for the gym. If you’re not in the proper mindset, everything is thrown off. So imagine me working out at the gym on
Wednesday night. I am resting in between sets of triceps dips and walk over to a treadmill with a television screen built in to check the score of the Pittsburgh/Washington game. I see there is over 17 minutes left in the second period and…it’s 4-0. Really? Is this a misprint? Did Washington really lie down and die in season ending loss to Pittsburgh? Unbelievable. Needless to say, it took me a while to get focused on the gym again.
I’ve had some more time to digest what went down in round two and here are some thoughts:
- Kudos to Pittsburgh for overcoming the 2-0 hole and winning the series.
- Picking Vancouver was a very un-wise move.
- Roberto Luongo might be the best goalie of our generation to never win a Cup unless he pulls a Hasek and heads for a winning team. Hey that reminds me, guess who is heading into a contract year next season? Guess who has a starting goalie who makes less than two million per season and by the end of next season will be ready for retirement/back-up role? If you guessed Roberto Luongo and the Detroit Red Wings, you’re absolutely correct. Don’t say I didn’t warn you.
- It’s been a while since I’ve been torn between two teams quite like I was in the Boston/Carolina series. I dislike both teams so picking a team to root for was a lose/lose situation. When Carolina held a 3-1 series lead I was somewhat happy because it looked like Boston was going down in flames. I wasn’t exactly jumping at the thought of Boston winning because quite frankly, the city has had enough winning for the time being. Boston also has the most annoying announcers in the game. I’d rather listen to a Chinese broadcast of a Bruins game then the gang from NESN. But then I realized at the expense of the Bruins, the Hurricanes would be advancing to the Eastern Conference Finals. All the NASCAR loving, non-hockey following fans known as the “Caniacs” would be in our lives for at least another two weeks. Combine that with the fact that I have to root for whoever was facing Pittsburgh in the next round and one could easily say I wasn’t looking forward to Game 7 of this series. And afterwards…I’m absolutely dreading the Eastern Conference Finals.
- I don’t get Anaheim. This isn’t the first time they have done this in the playoffs. It’s been re-hashed a million times so I won’t discuss it much further; just know that I don’t get this franchise at all. But seriously, if someone told me that Emilio Estevez was hired to be their new coach and Chris Pronger yelled out "Knucklepuck!" every time he shot, I wouldn't be surprised at all.
- I’m still jealous of Detroit. Even in the salary cap era, they just keep chugging along. If I were the GM of a team out of the playoffs, I’d be taking notes right now. (Hint, hint)
- I also have to give credit to the Chicago Blackhawks. I thought they were good enough for the second round but I definitely underestimated them. But just a note to all the Sabres fans up in arms right now, the ‘Hawks didn’t make it this far simply because of Brian Campbell. That’s a pretty ridiculous thought.
- Washington is never going to win a Stanley Cup with their current structure. Ever. Alexander Ovechkin is easily the most dynamic player in the game right now but he can’t do it all on his own. I know the Caps have several other good players like Niklas Backstrom, Mike Green and Alexander Semin, but it isn’t good enough. The reason Sidney Crosby and the Pens won this series is because of his supporting cast. Players like Malkin, Guerrin and Kunitz. Ovechkin has been putting the Caps on his back since he was drafted and while it’s good enough to win their division; it won’t result in a Stanley Cup anytime soon. The goaltending is also suspect. Granted Jose Theodore didn’t play in the series until it was over, the fact that Washington gave him the big deal and built around him was a huge mistake. Maybe Varlamov will turn out to be a franchise goaltender, but it’s far too early to figure that out.
- On a similar note, the Bruins aren’t winning a Cup anytime soon with Tim Thomas between the pipes. I’ve been beating this drum for a good part of the season and finally it’s somewhat justified. Hey, give the guy the Vezina, that’s great. But he isn’t what most are making him out to be. He makes some nice saves but he can't be counted on for the long haul. The guy didn’t even play in 60 regular season games for Boston this season and the backup put up similar numbers when he played. That tells me it’s the system more than the goalie. And for the record, if Tim Thomas starts for Team USA in the 2010 Olympics there should be a riot. In fact, I might be at the front of the pack for that one.
- The people who run the NHL (Gary Bettman) are going to be the downfall of this league. I personally think the NHL could easily compete on the level of the NBA, but not with Gary Bettman running things. I could go on and on about retraction or moving teams to a better market (move Phoenix already!) but I'll spare everyone from that. Just know that if I were running the league, four teams would immediately be contracted and several others would be put on notice.
But no, this rant is more directed towards the television coverage. When watching the NBA playoffs, there is a game on TNT, ESPN or ABC, followed the second half of the double-header. Makes sense. With the NHL, they have multiple games starting at a similar time so they overlap, and you can only see one of those games unless you've paid for NHL Center Ice. Granted I have Center Ice so this issue doesn't affect me, but I feel for those fans who are trying to get into the sport. How can two Game 7's be shown at the same time?? How is that good for the sport??? How many more question marks will I have to use to get my point across??????? Seriously, this is a prime example of bad business. Game 7's are a marquee match-up in any sport. It's what you want to showcase. The fact that the NHL ignores this defies logic. Oh yeah, and the one game that is on is still burried on Versus where some cable customers don't even get that without paying an extra fee. I can't get over this. It makes me question myself sometimes as a fan of the NHL.
Now that I’m done ranting, here are the standings halfway through our prediction contest.
Chuck: (Chicago in 6, Pittsburgh in 7, Detroit) 60 points total
Devin: (Pittsburgh in 7, Detroit) 40 points total
Scott: (Pittsburgh, Detroit) 40 points total
Brian: (Detroit) 25 points total
(Looks like Scott’s two year reign is officially over)
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Detroit Red Wings (2) vs Chicago Blackhawks (4)
This is going to be a great series. The Red Wings are practically limping out of their series with Anaheim after going the full seven, while Chicago ousted Vancouver in six and has been getting some much needed rest. Both teams are very familiar with each other and after facing off in the 2009 Winter Classic, they now get a crack at each other for a trip to the Stanley Cup.
During the 2008-09 regular season the Wings and Hawks met a total of six times. Detroit won four out of six games, although two of them went to a shoot-out. Something to note however, the Blackhawks won the last two meetings. I don’t mean to always talk about Buffalo but this reminds me of the 2005-06 season when Buffalo fell in the conference finals to Carolina. That entire season Ottawa dominated the Sabres in division play. But right near the end of the season the Sabres beat the Senators and it seemed to give them a new level of confidence. When they faced each other in the playoffs the Sabres did away with the Senators in five games. It was almost like that end of the season game was a turning point for the underdog Sabres. I figured it was something to note since the Blackhawks were currently 0-2-2 against Detroit this season before taking the final two games.
If I were a Red Wings fan I’d still be super nervous about having Chris Osgood in net. I know the guy has proven his worth, but there is something about him that gives me that uneasy feeling. If this series comes down to goaltending as the deciding factor, I’d have to give the edge to Chicago. Luckily for Detroit, I don’t think it will simply come down to goaltending.
I’ve been riding Detroit since the playoffs started and I really see no reason for me to change that pick now. They are the better team and more experienced when it comes down to these big games. It’s for that reason that I’m sticking with the Red Wings to win the Western Conference.
My Pick: Detroit in 6
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Pittsburgh Penguins (4) vs Carolina Hurricanes (6)
Wow. I honestly can’t even think about this series right now. What are the odds that two of my most disliked franchises are facing off in the playoffs and no matter what, one of them has a shot at the Stanley Cup. I’ve been trying to think of the equivalent of this in other sports and I had the hardest time coming up with it. I guess the closest would be the Steelers and Dolphins facing each other in the AFC Championship. Although I don’t think even that correctly depicts how upsetting this series is. In a non-sports comparison, this series is like a 24 hour root canal or even worse, having to attend a Fall Out Boy concert.
My Pick: (gritting teeth as much as possible…putting head down in shame…fighting off violent thoughts…) Carolina in 7
NHL Playoff Predictions - Round Two
--Written By: Devin Dombrowski --
One round down, three more to go. For the teams involved, four wins down and twelve more to glory. Before getting to my picks for round two, I’d like to discuss the first round for a little bit.
1. Welcome to the playoffs Columbus. You have a stud rookie goalie who could possibly win both the Calder Trophy and the Vezina Trophy, but none of that mattered once the second season started. The only thing I could think of when pondering the first post-season appearance in Columbus franchise history was how much it resembled Elaine dancing on “Seinfeld”. It was a nice effort but to everyone else watching, an epic disaster. Hopefully they have more playoff appearances in the future, and hopefully they actually win a game or two next time.
2. Happy 100th season Montreal! This season could potentially be classified as a natural disaster up in Montreal. I mean, I know they limped into the playoffs and definitely weren’t deserving of any playoff glory, but I thought they would at least put up a fight against Boston. This is one of their most hated rivals. Just one year ago the top seeded Canadiens were given all they could handle by the 8th seeded Bruins, couldn’t the Habs have at least returned the favor and looked like they cared? I think the only thing worse than missing the playoffs is getting swept in the first round. Embarrassing.
3. Want to win in the playoffs? Here is your key: goaltending. It’s the reason teams like Philly, Montreal, San Jose and St Louis are going home early. Nothing against their respective goaltenders, but goaltenders are the players that absolutely have to turn it up a notch once the playoffs start. It’s the reason a little seventh seeded team like the Rangers can put up such a fight against Washington (and I covered this very exact scenario in my first round picks). Despite losing in the first round and somewhat struggling, if the match-up stays Lundqvist vs. Theodore, the Rangers are moving on and not the Caps. It’s the reason why Buffalo would’ve at least put up a fight against Boston and it’s definitely the reason why the Pens went to the Finals last season (and have a great shot again this year).
4. Can we PLEASE stop with this trend of having the home crowd dress the same? PLEASE?? I’m not going to pick on crowds in Washington and Pittsburgh (the two cities where I first noticed the trend this year) because Buffalo has been guilty of this in the past as well. I’m going to pick on all crowds guilty of this trend, regardless of what city it is in. This goes for the NBA too. Nothing screams “Amateur Hour” more than this trend. Why can’t the fans just wear shirts, jerseys and related team merchandise while rooting on their team like a bunch of rabid jackals? Why do we have to hand out matching shirts and to create this illusion on television? It’s embarrassing. It started with the real fans getting priced out by corporate greed, and now we’re giving those wagon hoppers identical shirts to give this idea to the home viewer that the crowd is “crazy” and “die-hard”. I can see this for a fan base like the Carolina Hurricanes since they could easily change their team name to the Carolina Bandwagons, but please… the real fans aren’t falling for this. STOP IT ALREADY! (Ok, I’m done ranting).
5. San Jose…whoa there buddy. I mentioned in my first round picks that we’ve seen this before but that this year will be different. I guess you can count me in with the rest of the idiots who thought this year was going to be different. Once a choke artist, always a choke artist. For as bad as I’ve seen fans of other teams react (ahem Buffalo), I can only imagine what San Jose fans must be feeling right now.
6. Finally, here are the standings through the first round in our pick contest. Each person received five points for picking the series winner and an extra five points if they picked the number of games correctly.
Chuck: 35 Points (Boston, Pittsburgh in 6, Detroit in 4, Carolina, Washington)
Scott: 30 Points (Boston, Pittsburgh in 6, Detroit, Washington in 7)
Devin: 25 Points (Boston, Detroit, Vancouver, Chicago, Washington)
Brian: 20 Points (Boston in 4, Detroit, Carolina)
And now on to the picks for round two:
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Detroit Red Wings (2) vs Anaheim Ducks (8)
Luckily I’m not a fan of Detroit because this series would scare the crap out of me if I were. Remember the 2002-03 season when Anaheim came out of nowhere to take the Western Conference crown before losing to New Jersey in seven games? Few things to note:
1. Mike Babcock was the coach of that Ducks team and he is now… the coach of the Red Wings.
2. The Ducks were a 7 seed that year and swept Detroit in the first round.
This year’s Ducks remind me exactly like that team. Maybe it’s because nobody expected them to make it past the first round, maybe it’s because they are being led by a relatively unknown goaltender, I haven’t decided just yet. One thing for sure, Detroit better bring their best game or they’ll be joining San Jose on the golf course soon.
I thought Detroit would struggle a bit more with Columbus than they did. If Detroit has one glaring weakness, it’s goaltending. Combine that with the fact that Columbus was led by rookie sensation Steve Mason, I figured Columbus could steal a game or two. Granted the Jackets almost took game four as Osgood returned to form, the Wings still found a way to score more. I don’t think Detroit will be as lucky in the second round. One could argue that Mason suffered through some playoff jitters, but Jonas Hiller definitely won’t be. He already shut down the President’s Trophy winners, so I doubt he’ll care that Detroit racked up 295 goals during the regular season (3.6 goals a game).
I still can’t bring myself to pick Anaheim though. For weeks leading up to the playoffs, Detroit was my pick to repeat as the Stanley Cup Champs and I can’t change that on the fly just because of one gigantic upset. Detroit has been through the playoff grind plenty of times so they will be ready to play and not rattled by huge expectations. San Jose on the other hand…they seem rattled in every game that isn’t on the regular season schedule.
My Pick: Detroit in 6
Vancouver Canucks (3) vs Chicago Blackhawks (4)
This series has the makings of being a classic seven game slugfest. At first glance, I’d give the advantage to Vancouver because they have been the hotter team down the stretch, they have great goaltending and they dusted off the St Louis Blues like they were a minor league team. However, the Blackhawks will be much tougher competition. Not only are they are better overall team than St Louis, they have a Stanley Cup champion between the pipes. Never underestimate that experience when games are being played in May and June.
My pick in the Vancouver/St Louis series was almost dead on. In fact, my pick for the ‘Hawks was equally as close. In both series, I missed the prediction by one single game and I was the only person out of our pick group to even pick the winner for both series. If I lose this prediction contest, you can point to those two series where I left 10 points on the table.
It’s important when picking games to not over think a match-up. So for that reason alone, I’m going with the Canucks. Like I said in the first paragraph, my gut says Vancouver. Rather than sitting here and analyzing stats, I’m going with my first impression and hoping it pays off.
My Pick: Vancouver in 7
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Boston Bruins (1) vs Carolina Hurricanes (6)
Boston has had a very long layoff after dusting away Montreal which could affect them in the first game, but I don’t see it being a very big problem afterwards. With San Jose out of the way, Boston is the highest seeded team remaining which means they will have home-ice throughout the remainder of the playoffs.
The fact that Carolina is in the second round both surprises me and enrages me. If there has ever been a luckier team in the NHL, I’ve yet to see it. Twice in the series they pulled a game out when it was just about over. To give credit where credit is due, I applaud the effort of the team to not give up and to pull it out. But to think that Carolina will keep getting these lucky bounces against a far superior team, well that is just borderline crazy.
It should be interesting to see if the Hurricanes “fans” can actually sell these games out. I’m 100% positive if I were in the area I could easily get tickets on game day. I still haven’t figured out why the organization hasn’t just given up with this charade of saying what great fans they have and start covering seats up like they do in Jacksonville. Nobody is falling for it.
I’m picking Boston to win this series for a few reasons:
1. Boston is the better team
2. Boston defense > Carolina Defense
3. Tim Thomas > Cam Ward
4. I hate Carolina
My Pick: Boston in 6
Washington Capitals (2) vs Pittsburgh Penguins (4)
Oh boy. I’m sure when Gary Bettman saw this match-up he wet himself. This is the absolute dream match-up that the NHL has been wishing for since Crosby, Malkin and Ovechkin came into the league. This is so big that ESPN might even start Sportscenter with hockey highlights for the first time in the network’s history.
I’ve said it a million times so what does one more time hurt… goaltending wins above all in the playoffs. Marc-Andre Fleury absolutely saved Pittsburgh in the first round. If it weren’t for him, they might not have advanced. Then again, the Flyers were trotting Martin Biron out so who knows. I talked in my first round predictions about how Jose Theodore could be the downfall for Washington and it took only one game for that to come true. Now Washington has Simeon Varlamov in net and he has looked very solid so far. I only had the pleasure of watching him once in the regular season and I wasn’t very impressed. Regardless, he came into a pressure packed situation and helped Washington get rid of the annoying Rangers. (Has there ever been a better scene than a dejected Sean Avery sitting on the bench with his head down at the end of Game 7?)
Despite what all the media will tell you, this series is going to come down to more than just Crosby, Malkin and Ovechkin. So please, don’t fall for the media hype. It’s going to be a great series between two very good teams. I wouldn’t be shocked if the winner of this series advanced to the Finals, along with the winner of the Detroit/Anaheim series. I have to admit, Fleury knows when to turn it on and I don’t see this series being any different.
(Side Note: Remember my article a few months ago about how Ovechkin should be the face of the league and not Crosby? The very same that was chastised because the NHL wouldn't want a cocky Russian being the face of the league (as opposed to a whiny crybaby who jumps people with the same testicular fortitude of a 14 year old girl). Well look who is being nominated for the Hart Trophy this year? Crosby? Nope. It's not a coincedence. Crosby isn't even the best player on his own team, let alone the entire league. Can we finally lay this discussion down to rest? Thanks.)
When a series is very close, there has to be a few defining factors that pushes the winning team over the edge. Since I’ve been watching the NHL playoffs, these factors have been A) Goaltending B) Playoff Experience C) Luck D) Injuries. Here is how I see this series breaking down according to those factors.
Goaltending: Pittsburgh > Washington
Playoff Experience: Pittsburgh > Washington
Luck: Pittsburgh > Washington
Injuries: Pittsburgh = Washington
My Pick: Pittsburgh in 7
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--Written By: Scott Lunn –-
EASTERN CONFERENCE
#1 Boston Bruins vs. #6 Carolina Hurricanes
Boston tore through Montreal like a team on an absolute mission and earned themselves a little break between rounds. I'm not always sure that's a good thing however as it can certainly kill off any momentum a team has, and in this case, Carolina will bring a good deal in after taking out New Jersey in the final minute of a Game 7. If you ignore that aspect and simply look at ability alone, Boston is certainly the superior team. Personally, I think Carolina's luck is due to run out at this point. They scraped by against New Jersey, at one point blowing a 3 goal lead and getting a lucky bounce off a skate that ended up in the net with .2 seconds left on the clock to win one game. If the Devils win that game in OT instead, the series is as good as over. Then they win Game 7 by scraping together two goals in the last 1:20, a simply epic meltdown by the Devils. Boston is a much more physical team and will wear the Hurricanes out in this series. The only chance for Carolina is if Cam Ward catches absolute fire and can't be beat. But hey, at least those "Caniacs" get a few more chances to actually sell out a playoff game...
Boston in 5
#2 Washington Capitals vs. #4 Pittsburgh Penguins
The Capitals came out sluggish against the Rangers in their first round series and looked destined for an early exit, that is until their big guns came alive and lead them to win the last 3 games of the series. Ovechkin and Semin have started putting the puck in the net, and that's a scary trend for any opponent. In the NHL's wet dream, Pittsburgh dispatched of Philly with relative ease and set up the Ovechkin vs. Crosby/Malkin series that was made for VS. The Penguins didn't really have much trouble with Philly, though the series did go 6 games. Marc Andre Fleury was kind of up and down in this series though, and that has to concern Penguins fans. On the other hand, Malkin and Crosby combined for 17 points in those 6 games, which has to be reassuring. At any rate, the firepower is going to be unleashed between these two teams and it's going to come down to who can steal a game at the goalie position. Simeon Varlamov stepped in after Game 1 for the Caps and played fantastically, allowing only 1.17 goals against on average and showing almost no signs of pressure as a rookie in his first playoff action. I think he gets tested a little more in this series though. I expect a high scoring series and I expect to be absolutely sick and tired of hearing about 3 certain guys from the announce crews in short order.
Pittsburgh in 6
WESTERN CONFERENCE
#2 Detroit Red Wings vs. #8 Anaheim Ducks
Detroit scored 18 goals in just 4 games while dispatching of Columbus with relative ease and making goalie Chris Mason look like the rookie he is, despite a magnificent season. Meanwhile, they only gave up 7 goals in the series, 5 of which came in Game 4. The Red Wings power play is an absolutely scary thing to deal with and Anaheim better plan on not taking many penalties if they want to survive this series. The possible weak link in the armor for Detroit is Chris Osgood, who again, looked good until Game 4, but he doesn't appear to be 100% healthy and missed some fairly routine plays in that last game. Perhaps the time off between series will have helped him however. Anaheim is a team nobody really wants to face right now either. The Ducks took out the top seeded Sharks (who are making playoff choke jobs an art form these days) in 6 games. Goalie Jonas Hiller (who???) looked fantastic throughout and has a 1.65 GAA so far to show for it. As Devin pointed out the other day, and I had the very same thought myself, this Ducks team looks very much like the one that came out of nowhere to win the Cup behind the play of goaltender J.S. Giguere 2 years ago. Hiller is hot as can be and the Ducks are coming into this series with a lot of momentum on their side. I look for Detroit to stumble early because of this and their lengthy layoff and have to play catchup against the Ducks. Ultimately, I think the Red Wings simply have too much fire power to be beaten at this stage however, but the Ducks are going to put up a fight.
Detroit in 6
#3 Vancouver Canucks vs. #4 Chicago Blackhawks
My clear upset pick of St. Louis to win in the first round was obviously a foolish one, and I should be kicked for picking against Roberto Luongo. The Canucks had no real trouble at all in getting rid of the Blues in just 4 games. Luongo only allowed 5 goals in the 4 games and currently leads all net minders with a 1.16 GAA in the playoffs. The Sedin twins lead the way for Vancouver's offense, combining for 9 points in the series, though it's certainly not the offense you have to worry about when playing Vancouver. Chicago won it's first playoff series since 1996 by out battling the Calgary Flames in 6 games. This series was a very hard fought one and I was blown away by some of the physical play I saw. There is no doubt that the West is a much more physical conference. Everybody finishes their checks and it's amazing that some people walked away after the hits I saw. The Blackhawks are full of youth and energy and that ultimately seemed to propel them to the 2nd round. Khabibulin didn't look overly impressive in the net, but Chicago found plenty of offense to make up for it. 6 different players had 6 or more points in the series, lead by Kris Versteeg with 7. Patrick Sharp, Martin Havlat, and Cam Barker each chipped in with 3 goals and 3 assists apiece. So ultimatley this series would appear to be offense vs. defense, and I'm going to give the nod to great goaltending almost every time. I learned my lesson from the first round, and in Luongo I now trust!
Vancouver in 6
NHL Playoffs: 1st Round Predictions
On Wednesday night, the most difficult quest for a Championship will begin. With no further introduction needed, here are my picks for the first round of the NHL Playoffs.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
San Jose Sharks (1) vs Anaheim Ducks (8)
The Sharks are coming off an impressive regular season which netted them the President’s Trophy after finishing with a 53-18-11 record, including 32-5-4 at home. However, we’ve seen this show before. For the past several seasons the Sharks have had a very solid season, only to fall far short of the Stanley Cup once the playoffs start.
The Ducks finished off a wildly inconsistent season where they squeezed into the playoffs finishing two points above ninth place Minnesota. The Ducks finished the season going 7-2-1 in their last 10 games and finished with a better road record than home for the regular season.
I still don’t see those factors being enough to allow Anaheim to pull off the first round upset. San Jose has the better overall team, more consistent goaltending and they have been on a mission all season to be the best team in the league.
My Prediction: San Jose in 6 games
Detroit Red Wings (2) vs Columbus Blue Jackets (7)
I’ve said this before, but Detroit is a franchise that I’m quite envious of. Despite having a salary cap after the lockout, Detroit has maintained their dominance and continued to win consistently. After winning the Stanley Cup last season, Detroit only went out and picked up Marian Hossa who chipped in 40 goals and 31 assists. I think if Detroit has one glaring weakness, its goaltending; however Chris Osgood seems to have a second gear that kicks in once the playoffs start. It will be interesting to see if he struggles since Dave Babcock has shown he is willing to make the switch between the pipes, much like he did last year.
Columbus has been a good story this season and they’ve earned their first playoff berth in franchise history. Rookie goaltender Steve Mason has been absolutely amazing going 33-20-7 with a solid 10 shutouts. There should be an all out conspiracy theory started if he doesn’t win both the Calder trophy and the Vezina this summer.
The Jackets will provide a good fight for Detroit, but ultimately I don’t see them winning this series. A lot of playoff match-ups come down to experience and Detroit has an overwhelming advantage in that category. I was going to predict this series ending in very few games, but Detroit has shown some slow starts in the first round before kicking it up so I’m taking that trend into consideration.
My Prediction: Detroit in 6 games
Vancouver Canucks (3) vs St Louis Blues (6)
As stated several times in my NHL rankings, the Canucks heated up in the second half and were easily one of the best teams in the league. They finished the season winning three in a row to net them a division title and home ice in the first round finishing just two points ahead of Calgary.
The Blues were on the verge of missing the playoffs one week ago, but instead of fading away, they turned it up a notch and took control of their own destiny. They finished 8-1-1 in their last 10 including a 1-0 shutout on the final day of the season which would’ve been the difference between facing the Canucks and facing the Sharks in the first round.
Both teams have been hot down the stretch and this should be an excellent match-up. I think when considering a series like this, there has to be one factor that stands out above all when making a prediction. In this series, it has to be goaltending. This is no knock on the Blues goaltending situation, but Roberto Luongo is one of the few goalies that falls into that “elite” category, and he will be the difference this spring for Vancouver.
My Prediction: Vancouver in 5 games
Chicago Blackhawks (4) vs Calgary Flames (5)
The Blackhawks finished off an impressive regular season which saw them eclipse the 100 point plateau for the first time since I stopped purchasing cassette tapes and listening to them in my walkman. Chicago finds themselves in the interesting situation of technically finishing with the third most points in the conference, but receiving the fourth seed due to division winners. This is a situation that Buffalo found themselves in back in 2005-06 when they fell 20 minutes short of going to the Stanley Cup Finals.
Calgary really flamed out during the stretch (pun intended). They finished the regular season with a solid home record of 27-10-4 but they went 19-20-2 on the road, which will be their downfall in the first round. I really expected more during the season from Calgary, but they let me down much like “Yes Man” did after viewing it this weekend. I have very little confidence in them making a run. I realize that if Miika Kiprusoff can get hot it will be the difference, but right now I just can’t pick Calgary until they prove it to me.
I think if Calgary had somehow won the division and this was a match-up between Chicago and Vancouver, I’d be picking the Canucks in a short series. There is something about Chicago that I don’t quite trust. However, they aren’t playing Vancouver and therefore will win their series in the first round.
My Prediction: Chicago in 7 games
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Boston Bruins (1) vs Montreal Canadiens (8)
It’s funny how one season can change so much, but change so little. At this time last year, we were faced with picking between the top seeded Canadiens and the upstart Bruins, who just squeaked into the playoffs. The series ended up going a full seven games before Montreal pulled it out, only to choke it away in the second round.
This season it has been Boston who has pretty much reigned supreme in the Eastern Conference. If these two teams were a concert series, Montreal would’ve been that summer tour that was supposed to be the best, but instead ended up being some Skid Row tribute band that toured the clubs in North Dakota, while Boston was Ozzfest from the early 2000’s (before Sharon Osbourne ruined another good thing).
Most of the games between these two teams were close this season, so despite the large difference in team play throughout the regular season, I think the series could end up being close. Boston should prevail and it would be an epic disaster if they were upset in the first round, however I don’t see it happening.
My Prediction: Boston in 7 games
Washington Capitals (2) vs New York Rangers (7)
I have no idea what to make of this series. Washington has definitely earned the second seed in the East, but they don’t strike me as that elite team like San Jose, Detroit or even Boston. There is just something about the Caps that tells me they will fall flat on their face in the playoffs.
I think it has to be their lack of solid goaltending. Comparing Jose Theodore and Henrik Lundqvist is like comparing Winger to AC/DC. Having an elite goalie like Lundqvist definitely puts the Rangers in good shape for the first round upset. Combine that with playoff hero Chris Drury, goalie assassin Scott Gomez and the biggest pest in the league Sean Avery, and you can definitely make a case for the Rangers.
Despite their lack of solid goaltending, the Capitals finished the season with a goal differential of +27 goals compared to -8 for the Rangers. That is my main reason in picking Washington. Alexander Ovechkin is one of the few players in the league that most teams must fear heading into a playoff series and I’m sure he wants to prove himself in the post-season since that is the one category that Sidney Crosby has over him.
My Prediction: Washington in 6 games
New Jersey Devils (3) vs Carolina Hurricanes (6)
This has to be the most uninteresting, most boring series for the entire league. Not only do I have zero interest in either team, but I think its going to put most of America to sleep before the second period even starts.
The Hurricanes finished the season on a tear before getting shellacked by Buffalo on Thursday night and then finished it off with a loss to…the Devils!! Ok, maybe I shouldn’t be so excited by that, but something has to spice this series up.
My Prediction: New Jersey in 4 games
Pittsburgh Penguins (4) vs Philadelphia Flyers (5)
This is one of the most intriguing match-ups in my opinion. These two teams are very evenly matched and this has the potential of being a very high scoring series. Both teams finished the season with exactly the same amount of points and goals scored, but the Penguins had one more win in the standings which gives them the extra home game (if needed).
Before I started writing this, I was leaning towards the angle of saying how inconsistent the Flyers goaltending situation is with Martin Biron between the pipes. Then I looked at the goal differential of Pittsburgh (25) and Philadelphia (26) and my decision only became that much harder.
Pittsburgh pretty much owned Philadelphia this regular season when it came to head to head games, so my pick is pretty obvious in this close series.
My Prediction: Philadelphia in 7 games
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