Only one team has earned more trips to play on Super Sunday, but on February 1st, the Pittsburgh Steelers will have a chance to move alone into first place for Super Bowl victories. The Steelers head to Tampa to face off with the surprising Arizona Cardinals in Super Bowl XLIII. After a strong regular season performance, Pittsburgh entered the postseason as the #2 seed champions of the AFC North. Having knocked off both San Diego and Baltimore to claim the Lamar Hunt Trophy as AFC champs, they now find themselves matched up against a Cardinal team that essentially nobody expected to make it this far.

Coming into the season, the Steelers were expected to be amongst the best teams in the AFC, and they didn't disappoint on their way to a 12-4 record. Their 4 losses all came to teams who would go on to join Pittsburgh in the postseason, including close losses to Philadelphia, the New York Giants, and the Indianapolis Colts. After the loss to Indy in Week 10 however, the Steelers won 6 of their last 7, only dropping a game 31-14 in Tennessee in Week 16. As is customary for Pittsburgh, the team got the job done with a blue collar work ethic all season long. The focus was on defense throughout the year, invoking memories of the vaunted Steel Curtain of the 70s for many who watched them. It was defense that continued to propel them in the playoffs as well.

In the divisional round, the Steelers found themselves matched up against a red hot San Diego Charger team who had taken down heavy favorites in the Indianapolis Colts the week before. Holding the ball for 14:57 of the third quarter and only allowing San Diego one offensive play, which resulted in an interception, the Steelers would move to a 28-10 lead in the 4th quarter. After an exchange of touchdowns, the defense would relax a bit and allow one more before the game ended, making the final score 35-24 in favor of Pittsburgh. Moving on to the AFC Championship, the Steelers would host division rival Baltimore in a surefire defensive battle.

Leading 13-0 in the middle of the 2nd quarter, Pittsburgh finally surrendered a touchdown late in the half as Willis McGahee brought the Ravens within 6. After more defensive back and forth in the 2nd half, the Steelers clung to a 17-14 lead late in the game when Troy Polamalu picked off a Joe Flacco pass and took it into the endzone. This moved the Steelers to a 9 point lead at 23-14, which would prove to be the final score. A 7th trip to the Super Bowl had become a reality for the Steel City.

As I mentioned in a previous article, I'm a big believer in the theory that defense wins championships, and Pittsburgh brings the top ranked defense in the NFL with it into Tampa. However, they face an offense from Arizona that been the most prolific of any postseason team. The Cardinals have been absolutely on fire during their postseason run, most notably with the Kurt Warner to Larry Fitzgerald combination. Add in a seemingly recharged Edgerrin James, and Arizona might just have something to test the Steelers' D. While a win would give Pittsburgh their 6th Super Bowl title, the Cardinals will be making their debut in the big game despite being an original member of the NFL and they are out to prove they belong in this position after many doubted they could make it out of the first round of the playoffs.

Pittsburgh's got a decided advantage in Super Bowl experience with 20 members of it's roster having been there before. Arizona by comparison has just 5 players who have dealt with the added pressure of a Super Bowl. This could play a role early on in the game when the Cardinals might find themselves overwhelmed by their surroundings. If they can settle down quickly however, one would think a football player's instincts take over and all the hype and pressure are forgotten. If the Cards can manage an early touchdown, it will go a long way to boost their confidence and keep them in the game.

For Pittsburgh, one of the keys to victory is going to be establishing their running game early on. Their offense in flashy by no means and instead relies on a ball control system as well as the play of their defense. Ben Roethlisberger has an outstanding record, including 7-2 in the postseason, in his short career, but he is not at all known for putting up big numbers. If Willie Parker can get in a groove early on and Pittsburgh can keep the ball out of Kurt Warner's hands, it provides them with their best path to victory. Arizona's defense, while not overly impressive throughout the season, has turned it up a notch in the playoffs and only allowed around 77 yards rushing per game. Parker made a name for himself in Super Bowl XL and his performance will go a long way towards propelling his team to victory again in my opinion.

A great deal of attention has been focused on the battle between the Pittsburgh defense and Arizona offense heading into this game, and with good reason. These teams have both clearly excelled in these areas respectively, but I think the battle can be broken down further. The key matchup for me rests between the linebackers for the Steelers against the offensive line of Arizona. Kurt Warner has had a history of struggling when he faces a great deal of pressure. So far the Cardinal linemen have been up to the task, most notably against Philadelphia, a team known for it's blitz packages. The interesting thing for Pittsburgh however is they don't actually blitz in the conventional sense of the word. Generally a blitz is recognized as the defense sending more men at the quarterback then the offense has linemen to block them. The Steelers however typically only send 4, maybe 5 guys to rush the quarterback. The key to their success is their unpredictability, it's difficult to know where it's going to come from. LaMarr Woodley and James Harrison combined for 27.5 sacks during the regular season from the linebacker position.

Arizona absolutely needs Kurt Warner on top of his game and throwing the ball all over the field to Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin to have a legitimate shot to win in this game. If he doesn't get the time in the pocket to make accurate throws, the Cardinals are likely in for a very long night. The Steelers weakest point on defense is probably their cornerbacks, which could prove great for Warner, again, provided he has the time to make good throws. If he doesn't however, Troy Polamalu will be playing centerfield just waiting for the opportunity to ruin all the hopes and dreams of Cardinals fans.

Other possible notes of interest that could play a role in Sunday's game include the status of Hines Ward. Pittsburgh's do it all receiver injured his knee in the AFC Championship and hasn't practiced since. While I'd be surprised if he didn't end up playing in the game, his effectiveness could be questionable, and his versatility is going to be needed both in the passing game as well as for his effective run blocking. Additionally, it's a well known fact that the Steelers faithful travel very well, perhaps better than the fans of any other team in the league. Typically Super Bowl crowds aren't particularly loud one way or the other due to the nature of where most of the tickets end up, but all reports thus far are that Pittsburgh fans far and away outnumber Arizona fans in Tampa. Perhaps enough of them will actually make it into the game to provide a bit of a home team advantage for the designated visitors in this game.

As the two weeks leading up to the game have progressed, it seems more and more people are jumping aboard the Arizona bandwagon. I think this is a typical reaction to two weeks worth of hype and statistical bombardment, eventually the underdog doesn't seem so unlikely anymore. Personally, I'd say the 7 points that Pittsburgh is favored by are pretty close to dead on. I see this game staying close just because the Steelers offense won't have the fire power to pull away. Meanwhile, Arizona has too much talent to be held down completely and will manage a few big plays along the way. I look for the Steelers to get a score from either their defense or special teams and take the win by about a touchdown.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 26-20

Sunday, January 18, 2009

6:30 PM EST - CBS Sports

Baltimore Ravens (13-5) VS Pittsburgh Steelers (13-4)

It would be easy for me to tell you that as soon as the playoff brackets were finalized, this was the matchup I had for the AFC Championship, but since there is no documentation of this fact, you'll have to take my word for it. The reasoning behind that pick is a simple one. I'm a firm believer in the old adage that defense wins championships. Well, it doesn't get any better than #1 vs. #2 right? The Steelers and their top ranked defense will host the second best unit in the league when the Ravens come to Pittsburgh for the AFC Championship.

These teams are certainly no stranger to one another, both residing in the AFC North, they've already faced off two times this season. Pittsburgh won both of those games, but they were very tight contests and I think we can expect the same this coming Sunday. Nearly every time these two teams do battle, it's a close, hard hitting game and a chance to go to the Super Bowl will only serve to amplify those facts. Before we take a look at the previous matchups from this season, let's first see how both teams made it this far.

Baltimore snuck into the postseason as the 6th seed, edging out New England for the final Wild Card spot. As the final seed, they were forced to win on the road if they wanted to progress in the playoffs. Their first stop was South Beach, to battle the AFC East Champion Miami Dolphins. To nobody's surpise, Baltimore used it's stellar defensive play to force 5 turnovers out of a team who has only coughed up 13 in the regular season. NFL Comeback Player of the Year, Chad Pennington has perhaps his worst performance of the season, throwing 4 interceptions, as the Ravens dominated the Dolphin offense. Baltimore walked away with a 27-9 victory, advancing to face the top seeded Tennessee Titans.

Tennessee had a very stout defense of their own, and there was some concern as to whether or not rookie QB Joe Flacco would be effective in leading the Raven offense. As it would turn out, he didn't necessarily have to be, as the defense continued to prove itself as Baltimore's best weapon. The Titans were also stingy with turnovers throughout the regular season, but the Ravens managed to force 3, while not giving up the ball themselves. With less than a minute to go, Matt Stover kicked a 43 yard field goal to put the Ravens up 13-10, which proved to be the final score.

Pittsburgh finished the regular season with the 2nd best record in the AFC, and in the process, earned themselves a first round bye. After San Diego managed to knock off the early favorite of many in the Indianapolis Colts, they headed to Heinz Field to face the Steelers. As if Pittsburgh's league best defense needed any extra help, they got it when LaDainian Tomlinson was ruled out of the game due to an injured groin. Still, many were impressed by the performance of his replacement, Darren Sproles in the Indy game, and thought he would be capable of putting up big numbers yet again. Pittsburgh had other ideas though. The Steelers took away San Diego's ground attack completely, holding the Chargers to a mere 15 yards on the ground. Despite good numbers from Phillip Rivers, the Steelers has an answer for him as well. In what has to be one of the most lopsided quarters in playoff history, Pittsburgh held the ball for 14:47 in the 3rd quarter, allowing San Diego only one play, which was an interception thrown by Rivers. Willie Parker lead a ground control attack, on his way to 146 yards and 2 TDs. The Steelers never looked back and advanced with a 35-24 victory.

As I stated earlier, these two teams are very familiar with one another as division rivals. Their first contest of the season took place in week 4 on Monday Night Football in Pittsburgh. Close is far and away the best word for this game. Statistically, there was very little difference between the teams in what turned out to be a game marred by injuries. Baltimore ran the ball fairly well even after Willis McGahee was knocked out of the game, as Le'Ron McClain picked up the slack. Joe Flacco only threw for 192 yards, but 137 of them went to the man who has become his primary target, Derrick Mason. The difference making play in the game came as James Harrison, who had 10.5 tackles and 2 sacks in the game, hit Flacco and forced a fumble, which LaMarr Woodley then picked up and ran into the end zone. McClain would score late in the 4th quarter to tie up the game, but in overtime, Pittsburgh marched down the field with their first possession and Jeff Reed hit a 46 yard field goal to give the Steelers the 23-20 victory.

Baltimore would have to wait until week 15 to have a chance at revenge, as the Steelers headed to M&T Bank Stadium. The Ravens once again ran the ball fairly effectively against the usually stingy Pittsburgh defense, but Joe Flacco would struggle, managing only 115 yards passing and 2 interceptions. Despite this, Baltimore found itself leading 9-6 late in the 4th quarter. Ben Roethlisberger (22-40, 246 yards) would go 7-11 during a 92 yard drive and find Santonio Holmes on a 4 yard TD with under a minute remaining. There was some controversy however as the TD had to be reviewed. Holmes was standing in the end zone with his arms outstretched in front of him, in the field of play, as he caught the ball, and was hit from behind knocking him back into the playing field at nearly the same time. The review ruled that the ball had broken the plain of the goal line when Holmes caught it and therefore the TD was good. Pittsburgh snuck away with a 13-9 win.

With the track record between these two teams, and the two tight battles from this season, it stands to reason that more of the same can be expected in Pittsburgh this weekend. Both teams will be coming into this game fairly healthy this time around, with only the Ravens possibly missing a few key players. So far, the Ravens have relied very heavily on their defensive playmakers creating turnovers to advance in the postseason, while Pittsburgh showed a bit more offensive prowess in their victory over San Diego. Willie Parker looked very good against the Chargers, but the Chargers defense can't really be compared to that of the Ravens either. I'd expect them to slow him down greatly, and force Big Ben to make plays instead. Pittsburgh will likely try a similar tactic in making Joe Flacco have to win the game for Baltimore. Flacco is the first rookie QB to win 2 postseason games, but he has merely managed both wins thus far.

Roethlisberger may only be in his 5th season, but he obviously has a big experience advantage in this matchup, having already won a Super Bowl in his short time in the league. Ben has not been known to be a big play quarterback so far in his career, instead also playing the manager role for the Steelers. He has however shown flashes of brilliance with an occassional 300+ yard, multi-touchdown game. I would suspect you won't see one of those against the Ravens however.

The keys to winning this game for both teams are very similar. Whichever team is able to establish the run first and take some of the pressure off their quarterback will hold the advantage. Both defenses are simply going to bring it and turnovers will likely play a huge role in this game as well. I would put money on the fact that there will be a defensive touchdown scored in this game at some point. While I don't think either team will be particularly successful in their running attack, I'd give the edge to Willie Parker and the Steelers, again, based on experience.

Key matchups for this game also look similar for both teams. For Baltimore, it will be the play of Joe Flacco facing Pro Bowlers at linebacker in James Harrison and safety in Troy Polamalu. Flacco is going to have to be kept away from Harrison as well as LaMarr Woodley to avoid making mistakes and if he can't, Polamalu is the type of player that always capitalizes. The Ravens offensive line has their work cut out for them stopping the Steelers blitzes as well as trying to make space in the middle for the running game against big tackle Casey Hampton. By contrast, Pittsburgh faces much the same issue. This time, it's Roethlisberger facing Pro Bowlers Ray Lewis and Ed Reed. Much has been made about Ed Reed in recent weeks, with some going so far as to call him the best player in football right now. I don't agree and I think it's simply a case of most people in the media being infatuated with what's happening right this second. Surely I'm not going to discount Reed's big play ability, but his tackling has been highly suspect as of late. He has dealt with some neck and shoulder injuries and it's very obvious when you watch him try to bring guys down. He has done a lot of arm tackling lately and not lead with his shoulder. Watch for this to play a role if Parker manages to get past the nasty Raven linebackers and into the secondary. Additionally, Pittsburgh has been running several plays from a Trips Bunch package. 3 WRs lined up tight together, interweaving routes and generally breaking down the defense into leaving one guy open. These are middle range routes and are going to require the safeties coming up to make the tackles.

All this being said, I still think this is going to be a fairly low scoring, defensive battle, you'd almost be foolish to say otherwise. Ultimately, I think it comes down to Flacco being pressured or not. If the Steelers can't get to him for some reason, the Ravens will have their best shot at a victory. I just don't see that being the case though. The Steelers fans will be crazy as ever with Terrible Towels in hand and they'll pump up their defense to make big plays. I see this one coming down to a turnover forced in the 4th quarter leading to Pittsburgh getting the late game winning score yet again. Steelers 20-13.