NFL Picks - Week 4
Devin is busy with reality this week, so I'm taking over the picks column. I think he quite purposely planned this, as this is the hardest week to pick thus far in my opinion. Anyways, I managed to go 12-4 last week, which I can't complain about and maybe I can keep that momentum moving forward. I'd like to hang my hat on picking the Lions to get their first win in a very long time, but I'm pretty sure many others, Devin included, picked it as well. I will say that I absolutely did not expect the Titans to fall to 0-3, thus making the Jets 3-0, nor did I expect Pittsburgh to drop a game to Cinncy either. We're 3 weeks in and we've already seen quite a few surprises, and the true contenders are starting to shake loose from the pretenders at this point, so without any further nonsense, let's get on with the Week 4 picks shall we?
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears
Sure, the Lions knocked off the Redskins last week and assured they won't go 0 for the season again, but let's face it, they still aren't that good of a football team. As for the Bears, I'm not sold either way yet. I predicted Forte to have a sophomore slump this season and avoided him in fantasy land entirely, and so far I look like a genius for that. With Cutler helming the team, it's going to involve a lot of chucking the ball all over the place and that doesn't work out well for a feature back. The Bears showed signs of being the team so many expect last week and Cutler was solid, and I'd expect that to continue against the lowly Lions.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns
The Browns are flat out the worst team in the NFL I've seen this year, and Devin would agree since they currently occupy slot #32 in his Power Rankings. The Craptastic Quarterback Carousel continues in Cleveland (how's that for alliteration?) this week as Derek Anderson gets the go as the starter. It's no secret Eric Mangini is not well liked by his players and it really seems as though many have given up on him already in an attempt to see him lose his job.
As for the Bengals, if you read my AFC North preview, you'd see that I expected the Bengals to bounce back a bit with a healthy Carson Palmer returning to form. They certainly seemed to be on that path after knocking off the defending champs last week. They are one bizarre miracle play away from 3-0 at this point. They should have no trouble with this one, though divisional games often prove quirky.
Seattle Seahawks @ Indianapolis Colts
The Seahawks are a very different team without a healthy Matt Hasselbeck leading the way. Last week they battled hard with the Bears despite Seneca Wallace starting at QB and despite some of the worst uniforms I can ever recall. This week they head on the road to Indy to face a team that has looked pretty excellent thus far and Peyton Manning who is up to his usual tricks. With the Colts averaging in the mid 20s and Manning throwing for over 300 yards per game, the Seahawks defense is going to be in for a long day.
New York Giants @ Kansas City Chiefs
The Giants have simply looked like the best team in the NFL thus far this season while cruising to a 3-0 start. I spent all offseason talking about how the Giants had no receivers and were therefore going to struggle throwing the ball, but Eli Manning has made due just fine with Steve Smith and Mario Manningham. Add the two headed running attack of Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw and they are damn tough to stop. By contrast, the Chiefs offense has been downright miserable. Arrowhead Stadium can be a tough place to play, but I don't think the Giants are going to have many issues this week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Washington Redskins
This game couldn't have come at a better time for Jim Zorn and the Redskins... or is it perhaps their worst nightmare? After being the team to finally hand the Lions a win, Washington is under heavy fire and Zorn may be looking for a new job soon. Jason Campbell hasn't panned out in the least as an NFL starter and Clinton Portis can't do it by himself. If an absolutely dreadful Bucs team were to beat the Redskins at home, there would probably be no recovering. Byron Leftwhich has finally been sent to the bench where he belonged all along in favor of Josh Johnson. The Bucs have two young QBs that need to see the field if they're going to develop at all and that begins this week. Tampa is a very bad team, but I'm willing to bet they still put up a fight before Washington ultimately pulls one out.
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
I don't think anybody would have said before the season that the Titans would be heading into this game at 0-3, but here we are. The Titans need to turn things around very quickly if they're going to be thinking about a playoff berth this year, and this is as good of a place as any to start. The Titans defense is not the same as it was a year ago, and it's cost them so far, but the Jaguars have one guy to focus on. If they can bottle up Maurice Jones-Drew, Tennessee should have a good day. Despite the record, the Titans are still a good team and they will show it on Sunday. Chris Johnson has a big day and the Titans get their first win of the season.
Oakland Raiders @ Houston Texans
Oh those Oakland Raiders... so far the highlight of the year for me with regards to the Raiders is following @veryfakeAlDavis on Twitter. He makes every bit as much sense as the real Al Davis does. JaMarcus Russell is absolutely terrible and doesn't deserve to be on an NFL field, much less as a starting quarterback. 31-75, 378 yards, 1 TD, 4 INTs in 3 games. The Raiders are scoring 12 points a game and somehow they actually won a game.
Houston has played Jekyll and Hyde so far this season, but they are still a much better team than the Raiders. The defense is their weak spot, but since the Raiders have no offense at all, that shouldn't be an issue this week. Maybe we'll finally see Steve Slaton show up and make all those that drafted him in the 1st round of their fantasy drafts feel a little better, but even if he doesn't, Schaub and company will toss the ball all over the field.
Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots
In the words of Lee Corso, "not so fast my friends!". That's what the Patriots said to everybody with last week's fairly dominant win over the Falcons. People were trying to write off New England after a slow start, but the Patriots are still a team to be dealt with. Baltimore has played very well so far, but their defense is not quite the caliber it has been in years past and the Patriots will be looking to exploit that. This is a tough one to pick and I've been very impressed with Joe Flacco so far this season as the offense is putting up nearly 35 points a game. I hope the Ravens can pull off a win, but I'm going with the home team in this case since it's so close in my book. Pats move to 3-1 and make everybody forget what they were thinking last week.
New York Jets @ New Orleans Saints
This game is everything the Bucs/Redskins game isn't. Both teams come in 3-0 and the winner will establish themselves as one of the best in the league. The Jets have mostly gotten things done with a much improved defense, which isn't too surprising considering Rex Ryan is at the helm now. The Saints of course have used their offense to blow everybody off the field thus far, averaging a mere 40 points per game. Something has to give though. The Saints showed their offense can be slowed down last week, as the Bills held them for 3 quarters, so if the Jets offense can produce, they clearly have a good chance. I'm not quite ready to annoint Mark Sanchez just yet and he'll need a very solid game in order for the Jets to win. In the end, I'm going with the home team again, as I think the Saints offense will do just enough to outscore the Jets.
Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins
The Bills are getting my pick solely because Chad Henne is starting his first NFL game. The Dolphins may be 0-3, and while they certainly aren't as good as last year would have indicated, they aren't completely awful either. The Bills looked highly disappointing on offense last week, not able to score at all against a less than stellar Saints defense. Trent Edwards needs to start attempting to throw the ball down the field if the Bills expect to have any success, and if he doesn't get the ball to Terrell Owens and Lee Evans a bit more, that blow up everybody wants so bad will more than likely come. The Bills defense has been solid and should keep a first time starting QB in check, so the offense needs to put up points. Bills squeak out an ugly one down in Miami.
Dallas Cowboys @ Denver Broncos
The Denver Broncos are 3-0, but only because of who they played in my opinion. Cleveland and Oakland are two of the worst 5 teams in the league, and the win against the Bengals was a bit of a fluke clearly. The charade can't go on forever, and while the Cowboys aren't really that great of a team in their own right, they're still better than Denver. Tony Romo attempted to silence critics last week by playing a safe, solid game and it worked... kind of. He got the win, but the critics just found a new reason to rip him apart. Romo is certainly overrated and got too much hype early on, but he can still be a decent QB in this league. Felix Jones won't be playing, but Marion Barber should be back and I think the Cowboys offense should be able to put up pretty solid numbers on the Broncos. Dallas has nothing special on defense, but I have a feeling this is the week we see the real Kyle Orton show up, and the turnovers that come with that.
St. Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers return home after a crushing defeat at the hands of Super Hero Brett Favre in Minnesota last Sunday. The Vikings snatched away a victory, but San Fran proved they are a team to be taken seriously. They have to be the odds on favorite to win the NFC West based on what we've seen thus far. The Frank Gore injury is a serious blow to the team, as the offense was heavily reliant on him, but thankfully it's the Rams they face this week. A tough 49er defense should easily shut down the abysmal Rams offense and take some of the pressure of Shaun Hill in the process. This game could be bowling shoe ugly, but Mike Singletary and his team should certainly walk away with the win at home.
San Diego Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers defense has suddenly looked a lot less mighty since Troy Polamalu went down in week 1, giving up a combined 40 points in their two losses since then. They get to return home this week, where they have been nearly unbeatable over the last few seasons, and it comes just in time for Pittsburgh. 1-2 was not the start most people had Pittsburgh pegged for, and with the Ravens off to 3-0, the Steelers need to pick it up in order to keep pace. San Diego has looked pretty solid in going 2-1 so far, losing by just 5 against a tough Baltimore team. As usual, the offense is putting points on the board, despite the injury to LaDainian Tomlinson, but the defense has had trouble stopping anybody too.
I think this game will be a bit higher scoring than is usually the case when Pittsburgh is involved, and I see the Steelers getting a much needed win in the end. They are better than their record would indicate and this is the perfect chance to prove it. As we've seen before, the Chargers have the luxury of being able to drop some games early and still win their division, so a loss is not critical to them in this game.
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings
Forgive me if I don't pile on the "Brett Favre should have been playing all along" bandwagon. I still can't stand the crap he pulled all summer and one pass isn't going to change that. Poor Greg Lewis by the way, the catch was far better than the pass in this instance, but that is clearly not how it will be remembered. The only thing I will say, is that is the first play all year I've seen that Favre has made that either Jackson or Rosenfels likely couldn't have. Fact of the matter is that without Adrian Peterson, the Vikings are a fairly average team at best. Peterson is one of the most fun players to watch in the league at this point and you really do sit there waiting to see what he can do next.
As for the Packers, Aaron Rodgers is a damn good quarterback and has proven it early and often. Their defense is also significantly improved this season under Dom Capers, and will probably only get better as the team gets more familiar with the new scheme. The Packers have a bye after this game, followed by Detroit and Cleveland, and then a quick rematch with this same Minnesota team at Lambeau. This presents a great opportunity for the Packers to put some distance on the rest of the division, as both the Vikings and Bears have a more difficult couple of weeks in front of them. I look for the Packers to head into the Metrodome seeking revenge on #4, coming at him hard and often. Packers win despite a huge day from Peterson.
Last Week: 12-4
2009 Season: 34-14
Devin's Picks:
Detroit @ Chicago
Cincinnati @ Cleveland
Seattle @ Indianapolis
NY Giants @ Kansas City
Tampa Bay @ Washington
Tennessee @ Jacksonville
Oakland @ Houston
Baltimore @ New England
NY Jets @ New Orleans
Buffalo @ Miami
Dallas @ Denver
St. Louis @ San Francisco
San Diego @ Pittsburgh
Green Bay @ Minnesota
Last Week: 12-4
2009 Season: 34-14
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