NFC Championship Preview
The two highest powered offenses in the league will meet up on Sunday as the Minnesota Vikings head to New Orleans to take on the Saints for the right to advance to the Super Bowl. The Vikings were efficient on offense in dispatching of the Dallas Cowboys last weekend, but it was the defense that proved most impressive. They held Dallas to just 3 points and 248 total yards en route to a 34-3 victory. Brett Favre continued his terrific season by throwing 4 TD passes, including 3 to his new favorite target, Sidney Rice. Adrian Peterson continued to struggle however, managing just 63 yards on 26 carries, numbers that have to be at least a little concerning to Vikings fans.
As impressive as the Vikings were offensively this year, the Saints were even better. They quickly eliminated any doubt that existed after dropping their last 3 regular season games, in which they only managed 17 points in each, by absolutely making the Arizona Cardinals look silly. The final score read 45-14 in the Saints favor, but I'm not even sure it was actually that close. Tim Hightower broke off a 70 yard touchdown run to put the Cardinals up 7-0 on their first play, but the Saints responded, with a vengeance. By the time the first quarter ended, it was 21-7 New Orleans, and the Saints didn't look back. New Orleans got contributions from everybody on offense while piling up 418 yards, but Reggie Bush was the star of the day. Bush had 5 carries for 84 yards, including a 46 yard touchdown run, and also added an 83 yard punt return touchdown to put the finishing touches on the game. Drew Brees tossed 3 touchdowns in another solid effort, while 4 different receivers had at least 4 catches. The defense also played fairly well, holding the high powered Cardinal offense to just the two scores.
Based on what we've seen all season long and thus far in the playoffs, there is no reason to doubt that this game will be anything short of an offensive slugfest. So the question becomes which defense can do just enough to propel their team to victory? Well, at first glance, the Vikings defense seems to be the stronger of the two and Tony Romo would likely verify that for you if you asked him. Romo was sacked 6 times and hit another 4 as he was under pressure all day long against Minnesota. The Vikings forced 3 turnovers and had 11 tackles for a loss as well on the day and really prevented Dallas from moving the ball successfully at all. Granted, New Orleans has a better offense and more options to attack with, but they aren't going to be facing the Cardinals again. Arizona's defense was torched 2 weeks in a row and didn't put up much resistance against the Saints. New Orleans did manage to hold the Cardinals in check for the most part, forcing Arizona to pass a great deal once a big lead was established. The Cardinals put up decent numbers in the passing game, but again, it's tough to tell if that was because New Orleans was relaxed with a big lead or not. It is clear though that the Saints could not get to the quarterback anywhere near as successfully as Minnesota did.
From the Vikings point of view, that amount of pressure is going be needed again this week. If they can get to Drew Brees and disrupt his timing, it will go a long ways towards slowing down the Saints offense. This is of course easier said than done though. Brees is much like Peyton Manning in that he is very intelligent at reading defenses and knowing what's available to him before the snap. This results in a relatively low number of sacks as Brees gets rid of the ball quickly for the most part. It doesn't hurt that he usually has a ton of options to throw to either. Between Marques Colston, Robert Meachem, Devery Henderson, Jeremy Shockey, and Reggie Bush out of the backfield, somebody is usually relatively open. One thing is for sure, if the Vikings fail to get pressure on him, it won't be for a lack of trying. They're going to bring the heat all day and live or die by it. On the offensive side of the ball, it would greatly benefit Minnesota if they could finally get their star running back to return to previous form. Adrian Peterson dominated for about the first 3 quarters of the season, but his production has slowed greatly since. Whether this is due to Brett Favre becoming pass happy and audibling out of run plays or not is still a bit of a mystery, but the results have been obvious. Peterson hasn't topped 100 yards since Week 10 against Detroit and has had games of 19, 35, 54 and last week's 63 yards during the stretch since. Being able to control the ball and therefore keep it out of the hands of Drew Brees would be extremely beneficial in helping the Vikings reach the Super Bowl.
It would stand to reason that the opposites would be true for New Orleans. If they can keep Brees upright and give him time to make throws, he'll prove why he is one of the best quarterbacks in the game. This depends directly on the success of the Saints rushing attack. Last week was probably the best ground attack the Saints have managed in awhile, but it was also against an Arizona defense that has looked like Swiss Cheese as of late. Still, the reemergence of Reggie Bush had to be a welcome sight for Saints fans, as he has had more downs than ups as of late. If he can combine with Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell to carve out even a decent day on the ground, it should help to buy the Saints some time with their pass block. If they fail to do so, letting the Vikings tee off all day is going to be tough to deal with. Defensively, the Saints should fair a little better against Favre and the Vikings passing game. The Cowboys are rather weak in the secondary and really showed no effort in trying to stop Sidney Rice last week. I expect the Saints DBs to put up a much better fight. They did a solid job keeping Larry Fitzgerald, Early Doucet, and Steve Breaston in check just a week after all three tore up Green Bay. Brett Favre threw very few interceptions this year, but it's something he's been prone to in the past due to forcing plays more than he should. If the Saints could get him to turn the ball over a couple of times and get Brees and company some extra possessions, they would be pretty tough to defeat.
Almost everybody I've seen is picking Minnesota with a fair bit of confidence this week. I understand that if their defense plays like it did last week, New Orleans is in for a very long day, but for some reason, I don't see them having the same success. Instead, I'm imaging a game more like the Vikings contest against Arizona in Week 13, where Favre attempts a ton of passes and ends up throwing some costly interceptions. The Cardinals completely shut down Peterson in that game, so it is certainly attainable for the Saints. I think turnovers determine the winner and Drew Brees makes the most of his chances.
My Pick: New Orleans (-4) over Minnesota
AFC Championship: Indianapolis (-7.5) over NY Jets
I think the matchup of New Orleans and Indianapolis with perhaps the 2 most talented quarterbacks in the game would be amazingly entertaining, not to mention the thought of a Minnesota/NY Jets Super Bowl complete with 2 weeks of Favre Hype and Rex Ryan quotes gives me severe indigestion. It's the Super Bowl, and since my team is never involved anymore, it needs to appeal me on some level, so I'm totally picking with my heart this weekend.
NFL Divisional Round Preview: Part 2
Before we get to this week's previews and picks; here is a quick word or two on the teams that will no longer be joining us in the quest for the Super Bowl.
After starting out 7-2 this season, the Bengals finished 3-4 in the regular season, and then capped it off by completely rolling over to the Jets twice within one week. I realize they have suffered through two tragedies this season, but this tailspin started long before the last two weeks. In their final three wins of the season, Cincinnati defeated Cleveland, Detroit, and Kansas City. So as you can see, there is a valid argument to be made that they could've easily lost their last seven games had they played anybody worthwhile.
After being in the driver's seat and on their way to the NFC East crown, the Eagles completely fell apart and were outscored 58-14 by the Cowboys in two straight weeks. Six straight victories towards the end of the season are now completely meaningless as the Eagles are once again watching the playoffs at home and debating the future of Donovan McNabb. Personally, I see no way that he is let go. Two good games by Kevin Kolb can't justify ending the McNabb era just yet. However, Michael Vick is another story. I don't see any way possible that the Eagles can justify hanging on to him and paying him what his second year option is worth.
I'm not sure where to start with New England. They clearly weren't the same team from the beginning of the season; where they needed the Bills to just completely give away the game to manage a one point victory over a team that they always dominate. Still, I was part of the majority that thought Tom Brady just needed to get back into the swing of things and the Patriots would be a top AFC team again. Obviously, I was wrong. The turning point of their season had to be the game at Indianapolis. I defended Bill Belichick's decision to go for it on fourth and two, and while I will still defend that call, it was a game changing and ultimately a season changing decision gone wrong.
After that game, New England managed three unimpressive wins against Carolina, Buffalo, and Jacksonville before being booed off the field this past Sunday in Foxboro. If there is one person that personified the lifelessness the Patriots displayed on Sunday, it is Randy Moss. He was awful in every sense of the word. Even after catching a ball, you could tell he was either going to go down quickly or run out of bounds before anybody could touch him. He looked about as interested in this game as I would look at a live taping of "The View".
Green Bay…oh Green Bay. I was genuinely rooting for the Packers on Sunday. I have nothing personal against Arizona, in fact I'm a big fan of Larry Fitzgerald, but I really wanted to see Green Bay pull it out. To me, they remind me a little bit of Buffalo. It's a small town that cares deeply for their football team and usually deserves better than what they get. Plus it would've been great to see them take Brett Favre down in the playoffs and get ultimate revenge.
While I'm not going to make any excuses for the Packers, I do want to point out that the referees were horrendous more than once in Sunday's game. On a 3rd quarter touchdown to Fitzgerald, the Packers were also flagged for roughing the passer. Looking back on the play, Cullen Jenkins looked to be held or even pushed into Warner, and it definitely didn't warrant a penalty. On top of that, Fitzgerald completely plowed over Charles Woodson, and received no penalty for offensive pass interference. Then on the first drive of overtime, the Packers were flagged for holding, meanwhile the Cardinals clearly went helmet to helmet on Aaron Rodgers and no flag was thrown. Finally, on the game winning turnover, Rodgers nearly had his head twisted off and there was no facemasking penalty. I have no idea if that changes the game, but those were three pretty big misfires by the officials.
Through all that, once Packers fans lick their wounds and are ready for football next season, they should be especially excited. Aaron Rodgers is the real deal and they have themselves a QB who is going to be great for a long time. I can clearly see why the Packers organization had zero interest in bringing Favre back after his first retirement and stuck with Rodgers. As a Bills fan, I'm jealous.
And with that, let's get to this week's games.
Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings (1:00PM EST, FOX)
Last week we saw the Cowboys finally get that playoff monkey off their back as they thrashed Philadelphia for a second consecutive week. That now makes a four game winning streak for Dallas in which they've outscored their opponents 99-31. I think it's safe to say that Wade Phillips will still have his job in Dallas after this season is over.
Tony Romo also played very well in an important game, something he's had trouble doing in his career. He finished the game 23 for 35, two touchdowns, zero interceptions, and a QB rating of 104.9. Romo was well supported with a great running game that contributed 198 yards of offense Saturday night. Miles Austin also continued to cement himself as the number one receiver in Dallas as he led the team in targets, receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns.However, the real key to victory was the play by their defense. Donovan McNabb was consistently harassed and didn't have nearly enough time to operate the offense. Demarcus Ware had another great game as he chipped in two more sacks to his ever growing career total. The defense had four sacks total, but the stats don't always tell the whole story. The Eagles offensive line was overwhelmed for the majority of the game and it was definitely a glaring issue. Good thing they spent so much money on Jason Peters. But hey, he did make the Pro Bowl again.
The Vikings clinched the second seed and had a chance at the number one seed until Brett Favre decided to be Brett Favre. By that I mean Minnesota took a 10-1 record and proceeded to finish 12-4. While that is a good record, I wouldn't be filled with confidence in a team that lost three out of their last five games to round out the season, especially when you factor in Favre's recent late season play. But I digress. This preview isn't all about the Wrangler God, much to his dismay.
As it was shown in all four losses for Minnesota, the key to beating the Vikings is putting an insane amount of pressure on Favre and forcing him into bad throwing situations. As you read above, this appears to be a specialty for Dallas. In other words, I like how this matches up for the Cowboys. Not to be outdone, Minnesota has a pretty solid defense themselves. They are led by Jared Allen, who finished the season with 14.5 sacks, which was second in the NFL. Antoine Winfield has also been great at cornerback for Minnesota, although injuries as of late have really slowed him down. He is definitely one of the best in the league at stopping the run, but his health will be a huge factor. I fully expect Tony Romo to test him a few times early.
One huge advantage for Minnesota might actually be the fact that they are hosting this game. I don't usually put a ton of stock in home field advantage but it appears to be a real force for Minnesota as they went 8-0 this year in home games. Then again, Minnesota had an extremely difficult time selling out their playoff game last year, so there is a very good chance that Cowboys fans will be flooding the dome this Sunday.
I like Dallas in this game and I hate myself for it. As much as I dislike the Cowboys franchise for past misdeeds, there is no way in my current lifetime that I will ever root for Brett Favre. But all bias aside, I really think Dallas is the better team. We've seen it time and time again, the playoffs don't always represent a season's worth of work and it's more about who is hot at the current moment. The Cowboys are easily the hottest team in the NFC and they are rolling into Minnesota right now. After seeing how they harassed Donovan McNabb all game, I expect more of the same this week against Favre.
My Pick: Dallas (+3) over Minnesota
NY Jets at San Diego Chargers (4:40PM EST, CBS)
I should've known better than to trust the Bengals, who haven't won a playoff game since 1990, to beat the Jets this past Saturday. Even in today's pass happy NFL; the Jets led the league in team rushing and team defense, two of the most important factors in picking a game. Still, I didn't want to trust the Sanchize (or is it Sanchise?) in the playoffs. As I stated before, I was very wrong last week. Sanchez did exactly what he had to do, which is to not lose the game. He was very efficient, going 12 of 15 for 182 yards, and one touchdown. More importantly, the Jets as a team committed zero turnovers.
In my mind, the biggest disappointment was Thomas Jones, who managed only 34 yards on 15 carries. Does this disappointment have anything to do with him being on my Playoff Challenge roster last week? Yes, yes it does. Luckily for him and the Jets, rookie Shonn Greene picked up the slack, rushing for 135 yards on 21 carries. The Jets defense was very effective in shutting down the Bengals passing game, but Cedric Benson still managed 169 yards and one touchdown. In the battle between Chad Ochocinco and Darrelle Revis, Revis won yet again. Although I suppose for the Bengals fans, you could say Ochocinco won since he caught two passes for 28 yards, while Revis only managed one catch for 20 yards. This week won't be nearly as easy for Rex Ryan's crew though. They now get to face the hottest team in football, and in my opinion, the best team in the AFC. After starting the season with an unimpressive 2-3 start, the Chargers reeled off 11 straight victories and cruised to the second seed in the AFC. Phillip Rivers is sometimes forgotten by the common fan because his draft class has already produced three Super Bowl victories to his zero, but I would easily rank him as the best QB from the 2004 draft. Then again, J.P. Losman's UFL championship might have me reconsidering that thought.
Rivers finished this season with 28 touchdowns and only nine interceptions, good for a solid 104.4 QB rating, which was third in the NFL this regular season. The weakest link for San Diego this season was their usually dominant running game. LaDainian Tomlinson never looked like his old self and only mustered 730 yards on the season. Of course, I'm sure most fantasy players are aware of this after Tomlinson was taken in the first round of most drafts. Suckers.
San Diego's defense never seemed like anything special this season, as they finished with the 16th overall defense. In comparison, the Bills were 19th and finished 6-10. Their run defense was 20th in the NFL and allowed an average of 117.6 yards per game. If you're a Chargers fan and you're reading this, it should be alarming. I'm not a coach, but if I were working on San Diego's staff, I would be game planning to just stack the line and make Sanchez beat me. I know he had a decent game against Cincinnati, but his track record still isn't all that great and his numbers won't be nearly as good if the game is put on his shoulders and he can't lean on his running backs to pick up the slack.
All week I've been listening to people say how this is the perfect matchup for the Jets and the worst possible matchup for the Chargers. Basically, everyone is preparing for an upset or at the very least, an extremely close game. Well you know what? It isn't happening. San Diego has been too good down the stretch and this is the year they are going to finally break through and take the AFC.
My Pick: San Diego (-8) over NY Jets
Saturday's Games:
Arizona (+7) over New Orleans
Baltimore (+7) over Indianapolis
NFL Playoffs: Divisional Preview Part 1
Arizona Cardinals @ New Orleans Saints: Saturday, 1/16/10, 4:30pm on Fox
If Arizona's game against Green Bay from last weekend is any sort of indicator, we should be in for some more offensive fireworks this Saturday. The Cardinals managed to advance past the Packers by virtue of a 51-45 victory in overtime, where the only time defense was featured was on the game winning play. In the highest scoring game in NFL playoff history, Kurt Warner turned in an absolutely masterful performance, showing why he is one of the greatest playoff quarterbacks we've ever seen. Warner finished the game 29 of 33 with 379 yards and 5 touchdowns. All that without Anquan Boldin playing as well. The entire Cardinal offense chipped in though as Early Doucet and Larry Fitzgerald each had 2 touchdowns and Steve Breaston filled in as the #2 WR with a touchdown of his own, to go along with 7 catches for 125 yards. Beanie Wells added in a solid day on the ground to top it all off, gaining 91 yards on 14 carries.
The Cardinals needed every bit of that offense though as their defense had no luck in trying to stop Green Bay from moving the ball all game long. Despite causing some turnovers earlier in the game, the defense really didn't shine until overtime, when Michael Adams hit Aaron Rodgers in the arm and knocked the ball loose. The ball bounced off Rodgers' foot and right into the hands of Karlos Dansby who had a short trip into the end zone to finish off the game. The Cardinals defense looks to have its hands full again this weekend when they head to New Orleans to deal with a Saints team that showed its ability to put points on the board early and often this year.
The Saints lead the league in both yards per game at just a shade over 400, as well as points per game, averaging 31.9 on the year. Drew Brees finished 2nd in the MVP voting this year behind Peyton Manning, but his numbers were very impressive in their own right. Brees finished the year with 4,388 yards and 34 touchdowns, while throwing just 11 interceptions. Some of that success can be attributed to having so many targets to get the ball to. 7 different receivers had at least 35 catches on the year, lead by Marques Colston with 70. Colston, along with Robert Meachem, also had 9 touchdown receptions. Their ability to spread the ball all over the field is what made the Saints so potent all year long. Their running attack was solid as well, with multiple backs dispersing the load. Pierre Thomas lead the way with 793 yards and 5 touchdowns, but Mike Bell added 654 yards of his own. Bell and Reggie Bush also had 5 touchdown carries apiece. Injuries have been a concern at that position all year for New Orleans, but a bye week in the playoffs added some extra time for everybody to get healthy. Thomas, who has been dealing with a rib injury, is expected to be available on Saturday.
That offense is going to have to be on top of its game come Saturday though, because the defense for the Saints struggled a bit all year. They finished up 25th overall in yards allowed per game, and were particularly troubled against the pass where they ranked 26th, allowing 235.6 yards per game. After the display the Arizona offense put on last Sunday, Saints fans have to be at least a little worried. Injuries to the secondary contributed to some of the issues for New Orleans, but Jabari Greer, who missed 7 games on the season, is back and healthy. Darren Sharper is as well, which is good news considering he tied for the league lead with 9 interceptions on the season, 3 of which he returned for touchdowns.
So by just looking at the numbers, this game would figured to come down to which offense can outperform the other, much like the Cardinals/Packers game. I'm not so sure about that though. Arizona's defense is capable of much more than they showed last week, at least based on their season stats. Additionally, the New Orleans offense, while unstoppable early on in the year, slowed greatly down the stretch. New Orleans scored at least 24 points in each of their first 13 games while going undefeated, reaching the 40 point mark 4 times along the way. However, the team went 0-3 to finish the season, scoring 17 points in each of those games. Sure, they didn't really put in much effort in Week 17 because they had the #1 seed locked up, but the two previous games they were definitely still trying. Also, one of those games was against a Tampa team with an awful defense. I'd be rather nervous about that stretch if I were a Saints fan. It's hard to turn that type of thing around, but with the pressure on in the playoffs, they absolutely have to. Relying on their defense to win this game is going to get them a trip to the golf course and little else.
I'm not sure Arizona can repeat their offensive performance from last week, but they don't exactly have to either. If the defense steps it up a bit against a struggling-as-of-late Saints offense, Kurt Warner and company can probably do enough to get the win. The Saints on the other hand absolutely need their offense to show up back in early season form and for the defense to put in one of their best efforts of the year. This one is very tough to pick in my book.
New Orleans are 7 point favorites as of the writing of this article and I see no way they cover that spread. I think the Saints can pull out a win, but I'll take Arizona +7 happily.
Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts: Saturday, 1/16/10, 8:15pm on CBS
I picked New England to beat Baltimore by 9 last week... boy did I mess that up. The Ravens came flying out of the gate on Sunday and took it right to the Patriots in Foxboro. By the time the first quarter was over, the scoreboard read 24-0 in favor of the Ravens. The game finished up with Baltimore advancing by the score of 33-14, due in large part to their running game. In fact, Joe Flacco contributed next to nothing as he was 4 of 10 with 34 yards and an interception. The combination of Ray Rice and Willis McGahee took care of things offensively for Baltimore though. Rice had 159 yards and 2 touchdowns, including an 83 yard score on the Ravens first play. McGahee chipped in with 62 yards and a touchdown of his own. That coupled with a very lackluster performance from New England's Tom Brady (3 interceptions) was enough to allow the Ravens to hand the Patriots their first ever postseason lost at Gillette Stadium.
For the Ravens, it really was as simple as falling back on their strengths to get the win. Defense and running the football have been the staple of the Ravens attack for a long time now, and they showed why on Sunday. Causing 3 of the 4 New England turnovers in the first quarter helped propel the Ravens out to a lead that the Patriots simply couldn't recover from. Baltimore was highly impressive in dispatching New England from the postseason, but they are going to need to keep it up if they want to do the same against Indianapolis.
The faces may change a bit in Indianapolis, but the story has stayed pretty much the same. There is a new head coach in Jim Caldwell, and a crop of new receivers behind Reggie Wayne, but there is one big constant that allows the Colts to be so successful. Peyton Manning brought home his 4th MVP trophy this season, and deservedly so. 4,500 yards and 33 touchdowns from Manning helped Indy clinch the top seed in the AFC with a 14-2 record. Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark each finished up with 100 receptions, 10 touchdowns, and over 1,000 yards, but Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon both emerged as reliable targets for Manning as well. Joseph Addai was steady as always out of the backfield with 828 yards rushing, 51 receptions, and a combined 13 scores. As usual, the Colts were a top 10 offense, but the defense also allowed the 8th fewest points in the NFL.
The defense for the Colts is going to have to find a way to slow down the running game of Baltimore to be successful this Saturday. That won't be the easiest task in the world either, as Indianapolis gave up 126.5 rushing yards per game this season, only good enough for 24th in the league. The Ravens succeeded despite Joe Flacco not performing well at all against New England, so if the Colts can find a way to force Baltimore to throw, it would be highly beneficial. The pass rush of Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis can cause a lot of headaches and mistakes for opposing quarterbacks, and despite this being his 4th playoff game already in just 2 seasons, Joe Flacco is still rather young. Forcing Flacco to make plays in order for Baltimore succeed must be the number one goal of the Indy defense, because otherwise Ray Rice and company can run all day long and keep the ball out of Peyton Manning's hands.
For Baltimore, the opposite proves true. The Colts were the worst rushing team in the league this season and are highly dependent on Manning's ability to dispense the ball all over the field. The problem from the Ravens point of view is that there is really not much hope of making the Colts try to run the ball. Simply put, blitzing the Colts really doesn't work. Here is a list of Manning's sack totals each year, going backwards from this one: 10, 14, 21, 14, 17, 13. I could go on, but you get the point, Manning is extremely difficult to bring down. This is a combination of the Colts having a pretty solid offensive line coupled with the fact that Manning is simply the smartest quarterback in the game. Between reading coverages and calling audibles, and his ability to deliver the ball quickly, he just doesn't give opposing defense a chance to get to him. The best the Ravens can hope for is their secondary to make some very good plays on the ball and create some turnovers that way, though that's not real likely either.
Essentially, if the Indianapolis defense can find a way to slow down the Ravens rushing attack and make Joe Flacco win the game, they should be in great shape. And conversely, if Baltimore can keep the ball in the hands of their running backs and eat away the clock, keeping Peyton Manning off the field, that gives them their best chance. The problem with the Ravens strategy is that even if it's successful, Manning has a knack for making the most of little time. I could very easily see the Ravens having a huge edge in time of possession and still coming up short in this one.
Indianapolis is favored by 7 at home in this game, but much like the New Orleans/Arizona game that seems like too much. I think the Colts win this one late, but the Ravens are going to keep it close with ball control. Colts win, but I'm taking Baltimore +7.
Sunday Games:
Dallas @ Minnesota (-3) - The Cowboys have been absolutely impressive, but they need their defense to step it up again to slow down the Vikings. I think they do it and win outright, promptly begging the question "Will Brett Favre Retire?"
NY Jets @ San Diego (-8) - San Diego has been the best team in the league coming down the stretch and the layoff hurts them a bit in my mind. The Jets combination of defense and running has been great, and Sanchez couldn't have been asked for more than his performance on Saturday. I think he costs the Jets this week though. I hate this line, the spread is too big when a defense like the Jets have is involved, so I'm taking the Chargers to win, but the Jets will stay within the 8 point spread.
NFL Wild Card Preview: Part 2
Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots: Sunday, 1/10/10, 1:00pm on CBS
The Baltimore Ravens were in complete control of their fate last Sunday and took advantage of the fact by easily handling the Oakland Raiders to earn their way into the playoffs. The Ravens wound up at 9-7 on the year and took an interesting route to get there. Early in the year, the Ravens didn't really resemble years past as they took to the air on offense. Joe Flacco had 3 games with 300+ yards passing in the first 6 weeks of the season and earned his way into the starting lineup of fantasy teams everywhere. During that stretch, the Ravens won their first 3 games, but dropped the next 3 against opponents that all went on to make the playoffs. In fact, it's that second point that has me concerned going into this game. Against teams that went on to make the playoffs, the Ravens went 1-7, with the lone win coming against San Diego in Week 2. While that win might qualify as impressive, I'd also consider that the Chargers struggled a bit the first few weeks before becoming the hottest team in the league down the stretch. The winning percentage of the teams they did beat was well below .500. This screams to me that the Ravens can't handle the tougher competition and could be in some trouble come Sunday.
New England finished up the year at 10-6 and only lost back to back games once on the year. Interestingly, they didn't fare all that well against playoff bound teams either, going just 2-3. Their wins came against the Jets as well as this very same Baltimore team back in Week 4 at home, but more about that game momentarily. Tom Brady made his return after missing virtually all of last year due to injury and played pretty well for the most part. He had some bumps in the road and has battled with nagging injuries throughout the year, but still managed to finish up with just a shade under 4,400 yards along with 28 touchdowns to just 13 interceptions. A big part of that success could be attributed to Wes Welker and another monster year. Of course, we all saw what happened to Welker last week when the case for resting players was made very clearly. Welker apparently suffered both a torn MCL and ACL and will not be back this season. That's a major blow to the Pats because the possession receiver role plays a huge part in their offense. Welker is very adept at running option routes and taking whatever opposing defenses are willing to give up. Julian Edelman is his replacement, and while he showed some skills on Sunday, I don't think his abilities are on par with Welker. Of course, Randy Moss is still on the other side of the field and he accounts for most of the teams touchdowns, so the Ravens defense is likely to focus there instead.The running game is of great interest to me for both teams. For Baltimore, after that abnormal first few weeks, it was the ground game that returned as their main focus on offense. Ray Rice lead the way with 1,339 yards rushing and 7 touchdowns, while Willis McGahee also turned in 544 yards and found the end zone 12 times. McGahee showed last Sunday that he is still capable of big games from time to time, but keep in mind it was the Raiders that he torched. Rice also contributes a great deal by catching the ball out of the backfield. He hauled in 78 grabs for an additional 702 yards on the year. In fact, the Ravens passing game relies heavily on Rice (who lead the team in catches), as well as tight end Todd Heap, who also had 6 scores. By contrast, the Patriots running game has continued to be a bit of a question mark. Laurence Maroney got the majority of work on the season, gaining 757 yards and 9 TDs, but 4 different backs had at least 60 carries and 250+ yards on the year. In addition to Maroney, Kevin Faulk, Sammy Morris, and Fred Taylor all saw duty in the New England backfield. The Patriots have the truest "running back by committee" scheme of any team in the league, and each back brings something slightly different to the table. Faulk in particular is an above average receiver as well and is often utilized as such. The Patriots are obviously a pass first team, but I think they need to rely a little more on their running attack than usual against Baltimore. Otherwise, the time of possession could heavily favor the Ravens.
As I mentioned before, these teams already faced each other once this season, squaring off in Week 4. New England was home for that game, much like they will be again this Sunday, which is great for them, considering they struggled quite a bit on the road this season. That first meeting was a very closely battled game that saw the Patriots take home a 27-21 victory. Late in that game, Joe Flacco found Mark Clayton for a would be first down inside the Patriot 10 yard line, but Clayton simply dropped the ball and with under 30 seconds left, the Ravens were out of chances. In that game, Flacco played pretty well and put up numbers similar to Tom Brady. In addition, the Ravens were very successful running the football as Ray Rice had 103 yards on just 11 carries. The problem was that they played from behind for the most part and were forced to go to the air. On the flip side, the Patriots garnered almost no rushing attack at all, totaling just 85 yards on 30 carries.
Looking at the keys for each team in this game, the Ravens need to dominate with their running game. The Pats have struggled a bit against the run all year, and that is what the Ravens do best. Joe Flacco is still young, and while he did take this team to the AFC Championship from the same #6 seed last year, he's relatively inexperienced. He needs to manage the game and not be relied on to go out and win it for Baltimore. Conversely, the Patriots will have to find a new game plan with Welker missing and that should include trying to establish the run early on as well as plenty of short passes to the running backs and tight end. The Patriots are one of the best teams at running screen plays and should use that to their advantage against a still very tough, but aging Baltimore defense.
At the end of the day, I think the Patriots are simply the better team and it will show. The Patriots are favored by 3.5 points as of my writing this, and I expect them to cover that. I'm picking New England by 9 in this one.
Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals: Sunday, 1/10/10, 4:40pm on Fox
If it weren't for the Minnesota Vikings handling them twice this season, the Green Bay Packers would have looked like one of the elite teams in the NFL. Despite those two losses to the Vikings, the Packers still managed a record of 11-5. Their reward? Traveling to Arizona to face the Cardinals, despite having a better record. The secret to the Packers success this year is not really a secret at all. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers had a fantastic season, earning himself a trip to the Pro Bowl in the process. Rodgers stat line is a fantasy owner's dream come true, racking up 4,434 yards, 30 touchdowns, and only 7 interceptions. Drew Brees and Peyton Manning are the only reason Rodgers isn't a serious contender for MVP of the league this season. For the sake of consistency, the Packers record against eventual playoff teams this season stands at 3-3. I mentioned the two losses to the Vikings, but the Bengals also topped the Packers in Week 2. The Cowboys, Ravens, and the Cardinals all fell at the hands of the Packers. Green Bay finished up 7-1 in the second half of the season and their lone loss was by just a single point at Pittsburgh. What does all this mean you ask? Well, I think it's safe to say that the Packers are one of the top teams in the NFL at this point, despite not getting the same recognition as some other teams.Arizona made it to the Super Bowl last season, and came very close to winning it despite nobody really believing they had a chance when the playoffs started. Part of the issue with the Cardinals is that they are tough to gauge. They play in what is easily the worst division in football and also have a real tendency to look unstoppable one week, while looking putrid the next. The Cardinals finished 10-6 this season, but when you play the Rams and Seahawks twice each, 4 wins are pretty much assured. Only 3 of the teams on their schedule made the playoffs, and Minnesota was the only one they were able to beat. Indianapolis and Green Bay both thrashed the Cardinals, though to be fair, they clearly weren't trying to hard against the Packers. Kurt Warner was pretty solid as usual with 3,753 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions to his credit. It certainly doesn't hurt to have Larry Fitzgerald (97 receptions, 1,092 yards, 13 TDs) and Anquan Boldin (84 receptions, 1,024 yards, 4 TDs) on the other end of your passes though. It was the emergence of a running game that made the Cardinals look a little different this season however. The combination of Tim Hightower and rookie Beanie Wells at running back was a mostly successful one in the desert. Hightower finished with 598 yards and 8 TDs, while Wells had 793 yards and 7 TDs. Hightower also contributed to the passing game a great deal with 63 catches. The Cardinals have been known for their offensive prowess for awhile now, but it was an impressive season for the defense as well, especially against the run. They dropped off a bit later in the year, but in the early going, Arizona proved very difficult to run the ball against.
All signs would indicate this game is going to be a score fest with two high powered offenses going at it. I just discussed the Cardinals ability to both pass and run the ball, but the Packers were the only team in the league to have a 4,000 yard passer, 1,000 yard rusher, and two 1,000 yard receivers. Ryan Grant quietly ran for 1,253 yards and 11 touchdowns this season, while both Donald Driver and Greg Jennings surpassed the 1,000 yard mark while combining for 138 receptions and 10 scores. To top it off, Jermichael Finley has established himself as one of the top threats at tight end as well, hauling in 5 touchdowns himself. With such a variety of weapons at their disposal, it's going to be tough for the Cardinals to choose who to try and shut down.
These two teams are amongst the 3 Wild Card matchups that are repeats of Week 17 games. Unfortunately, I don't think there is much to be learned from that game in this case. The Packers pretty clearly went out and played as normal, while the Cardinals didn't show much effort at all. Green Bay took home a 33-7 victory, but in the end, the result was rather meaningless. Nothing was going to change due to the result of the game, so the Cardinals took the opportunity to rest up their starters. Though, like New England, they might have waited a bit too long to do so, as Anquan Boldin suffered an injury to his leg. As of right now, the MRI results are not available, but speculation is that Boldin will not be able to play on Sunday. Steve Breaston is a very talented 3rd receiver for Arizona, but he's no Boldin either.
Essentially what this game boils down to is who's defense can slow the other team down enough to get the win. The Packers most glaring problem all year has been their inability to keep Aaron Rodgers standing upright. He was sacked a ridiculous 50 times on the year, tying him for the most in the league. The Cardinals also get to the quarterback quite successfully, finishing 6th in the NFL with 43 sacks on the season. This could obviously result in a long day for Rogers, but he's managed to be very successful despite this issue. The fact that he only threw 7 interceptions despite the pressure he faced says a great deal about his ability to withstand it. While Arizona was improved on defense this season, they still ranked 20th overall, while the Packers were #2. Green Bay was also the top run defending team in the league. Add those numbers up, and it tells me that Green Bay is much more likely to slow down the Cardinal defense, especially without Boldin, than Arizona is likely to stop a Green Bay team that is just loaded with weapons.
I've had this funny feeling that we hadn't seen the last of the great Favre/Vikings/Packers saga for the year for awhile now, and it still looks like a realistic possibility to me. Arizona is the 1 point favorite with the odds makers, but Green Bay is going to win this one outright. I'm taking the Packers by double digits.
Saturday Games:
NY Jets @ Cincinnati (-2.5) - #1 Defense in the league + #1 Rushing attack in the league = Playoff success, despite rookie QB. I'll take the Jets to win outright by 3 in an ugly one.
Philadelphia @ Dallas (-4) - Dallas has sold me lately, but I still can't trust them. McNabb has one of his random unreal games and goes off on the 'Boys. Eagles outright by 6.
NFL Wild Card Preview: Part I
Before we get to my previews and picks for this Saturday, I wanted to take this time to review mine and Scott's regular season predictions. As you all remember, we both split up the divisions and wrote a quick preview for each team followed by our prediction of how they would finish the regular season. Now it's time to see just how smart (or dumb) we look. Listed below are the divisions and who picked them. Then I will list each team, with the record they finished with, and the record either Scott or I predicted bolded afterwards.
| Final Record | Our Prediction | |
| AFC East (Devin): | ||
| New England Patriots | 10-6 | 13-3 |
| NY Jets | 9-7 | 6-10 |
| Miami Dolphins | 7-9 | 9-7 |
| Buffalo Bills | 6-10 | 5-11 |
| AFC North (Scott): | ||
| Cincinnati Bengals | 10-6 | 7-9 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 9-7 | 10-6 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 9-7 | 10-6 |
| Cleveland Browns | 5-11 | 3-13 |
| AFC South (Scott): | ||
| Indianapolis Colts | 14-2 | 10-6 |
| Houston Texans | 9-7 | 9-7 |
| Tennessee Titans | 8-8 | 10-6 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 7-9 | 5-11 |
| AFC West (Devin): | ||
| San Diego Chargers | 13-3 | 10-6 |
| Denver Broncos | 8-8 | 6-10 |
| Oakland Raiders | 5-11 | 5-11 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 4-12 | 6-10 |
| NFC East (Devin): | ||
| Dallas Cowboys | 11-5 | 9-7 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 11-5 | 11-5 |
| NY Giants | 8-8 | 10-6 |
| Washington Redskins | 4-12 | 9-7 |
| NFC North (Scott): | ||
| Minnesota Vikings | 12-4 | 10-6 |
| Green Bay Packers | 11-5 | 9-7 |
| Chicago Bears | 7-9 | 9-7 |
| Detroit Lions | 2-14 | 2-14 |
| NFC South (Scott): | ||
| New Orleans Saints | 13-3 | 6-10 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 9-7 | 10-6 |
| Carolina Panthers | 8-8 | 10-6 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 3-13 | 5-11 |
| NFC West (Devin): | ||
| Arizona Cardinals | 10-6 | 10-6 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 8-8 | 7-9 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 5-11 | 6-10 |
| St Louis Rams | 1-15 | 4-12 |
New York Jets @ Cincinnati Bengals (Sat. 4:30pm)
Leave it to the NFL to make a playoff schedule that makes zero sense. Hey, let's take the latest game on Sunday and make them play the first game this coming Saturday. Somehow, we all knew this was going to happen. Although I suppose we have to at least give the NFL credit for not hosting their Championship game on a Thursday night. That's right BCS, I said it. You suck. I hate you.
I'm being dead serious when I tell you this; Mark Sanchez has been downright awful this season. Normally I wouldn't be this harsh on a rookie QB, but since the day he was drafted people were touting him as the next legendary QB to play in the NFL and something about that seriously bothered me. At first glance, I can see at least three games that Sanchez gift wrapped for the other team. Just by glancing at the Jets schedule, I can see at least three games that were tossed away by Sanchez. We could very well be discussing the 12-4 AFC East Champion NY Jets right now.
I had a very difficult time writing about this game because I kept changing my mind on who would win. Literally, this is the third time I've re-written this portion of the article. So instead of going on any further, I'm just going to highlight my main points for each team and why they will win.
Reasons the Jets will win:
- Number one rushing offense in the NFL.
- Number one overall defense in the NFL.
- As stated before, they already demolished the Bengals this season.
- 4-2 against teams with a winning record this season.
- Winning record (5-3) in road games this season.
- Darrelle Revis. Easily one of the top five shutdown corners in the league going against Chad Ochocinco, the Bengals one and only threat in the passing game.
- Bengals are 5-4 against teams with a winning record this season.
- Chris Henry. Never underestimate a team that has gone through something major like that during the season.
- Home field. Bengals fans will be going nuts for a rare chance at the playoffs.
- Number four overall defense in the NFL.
- Carson Palmer. He may not be more experienced in the playoffs, but he is far more experienced than Mark Sanchez overall.
- 6-2 record at home this season.
My Pick: Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) over NY Jets
Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys (Sat. 8:00pm)
Just like the Bengals/Jets game, this is a rematch from a game this past Sunday which involved the road team getting laughed right off the field. However, unlike the Bengals/Jets game, the circumstances are not quite the same. Sunday's game between the Eagles and Cowboys was for the NFC East title and the right to host the first round game, so there was quite a bit at stake for both teams. After watching the game though, it seems that only the Cowboys realized this and showed up to play.
The Cowboys are heading into the playoffs on a real strong winning streak which should worry the other NFC teams. After knocking off the previously undefeated Saints in New Orleans, Dallas has since posted back to back shutouts of division rivals. They also swept the season series with Philadelphia this season which works in their favor. In fact, the only thing I can even say negatively about Dallas is that they still haven't won a playoff game in over a decade. And really, I don't think that matters at this point in time.
Upon further review of Philadelphia's season so far, it has been less impressive than I once thought. The only team they beat this season with a winning record was Atlanta, who finished the season at 9-7. I suppose I should also mention that neither Matt Ryan or Michael Turner played in that game, so it's not really the best example of Philly beating somebody worthwhile. Meanwhile, the Eagles did lose New Orleans, Dallas (x2), and San Diego. As you can see, this isn't exactly an endorsement for the Eagles Super Bowl bandwagon.
When looking at the season Dallas had, it's been much more impressive than Philadelphia. They beat Atlanta (with Ryan and Turner), Philadelphia (x2), and New Orleans, which were all teams finishing with a winning record. However, they also lost to San Diego and Green Bay. Again, much more impressive than Philly. There is a part of me that wonders just how hard the Eagles tried last week against Dallas. For instance, did they go down by a certain amount and Andy Reid basically threw his gameplan out the window because he didn't want to give Dallas anything more to prepare for this week? Who knows? I guess we'll find out Saturday night. I do think Dallas can win this game, but Tony Romo is going to have a ton of pressure on him. I can only imagine what kind of firestorm he'll face if he goes through another season without a playoff victory.
My Pick: Philadelphia Eagles (+4) over Dallas Cowboys
Sunday's Games:
New England Patriots (-3.5) over Baltimore Ravens
Green Bay Packers (+1) over Arizona Cardinals
NFC Championship Recap
On the flip side of our AFC Championship recap, a bad side of writing is being proven completely wrong after writing an article earlier in the week. This was the case in my NFC Championship preview as I predicted the Eagles would hammer away Arizona 27-10. Barring a missed two point conversion, I almost nailed the Philly score on the dot but I completely underestimated the Arizona offense.
Arizona came out of the gates flying high in this game and completely took Philadelphia by storm. They marched right down the field on the opening drive and capped off a nine play drive with the first of three Larry Fitzgerald touchdowns. Fitzgerald cemented himself as the best wide receiver in the league with another amazing performance. He finished the day with 9 receptions, 152 yards, and 3 touchdowns.
The Eagles tried to keep up but failed to do so in the first half and went into the locker room at halftime down 24-6. Donovan McNabb tried his best to will his team to victory in the 2nd half with two touchdown passes to tight end Brent Celek in the 3rd quarter to bring the score to 24-19. McNabb continued his hot play in the 4th quarter with a highlight reel touchdown to rookie DeSean Jackson, who bobbled the ball all the way into the end zone to give Philly the lead 25-24.
Arizona’s offense, which had been non-existent in the 3rd quarter, finally came back to life and marched right down the field to take the lead. The Cardinals capped the drive off with an 8 yard touchdown pass from Kurt Warner to Tim Hightower and then got the 2 point conversion with a pass to Ben Patrick to make the score 32-25. The Eagles had one final shot to tie the game, and seemed like they were well on their way until the drive came to a screeching half around mid-field. With 4th down and the season on the line, McNabb’s pass to Kevin Curtis fell incomplete, and so Arizona advanced to Super Bowl XLIII for the first time in franchise history.
It goes without saying that many football fans didn’t give the Cardinals a chance to make it out of the first round, let alone take the NFC crown, so as one of those writers I have to give credit where credit is due. The Cardinals will have their hands full with Pittsburgh’s number one defense but they definitely have a shot to take it all.
Look for our Super Bowl XLIII preview coming next week on D&S Sports and stay tuned for plenty more sports articles coming this week.
NFC Championship Preview
Sunday January 18th 2009
3:00 PM EST : FOX
The Cardinals have continued their improbable run
and now host the NFC Championship, a first since relocating to the desert many decades ago. Arizona has beaten the odds twice this post-season with a wild card victory over Atlanta and a shocking upset against the Carolina Panthers.
The Philadelphia Eagles are also riding a little hot streak as they travel west to Glendale for their fifth NFC championship appearance this decade. Head Coach Andy Reid and QB Donovan McNabb have been with the team for all five, however they have consistently fallen short in the quest for a Championship.
These two teams previously met this season. The Eagles completely dominated Arizona in one of the Thanksgiving day games in Philadelphia, 48-20. The Cardinals had just lost a very tough home game to the Giants and had to travel all the way to the East Coast on a short week, which put them at a huge disadvantage. Kurt Warner threw three interceptions that game and Brian Westbrook delighted fantasy owners with four touchdowns.
In the week prior to the first match-up, Donovan McNabb was benched by Reid in what many are saying was a turning point for the Eagles this season. Following the benching, the Eagles won the next four out of five games to gain a post-season berth and have since followed that up with two more victories, both on the road.
Both the Eagles and Cardinals are led by veteran quarterbacks and strong defenses.
Both teams have relied heavily on their passing game throughout the season. The Eagles are known to run the ball more than Arizona, but the combination of Brian Westbrook and Correll Buckhalter get plenty of action in the passing game as well.
The Cardinals almost completely ignored their running game during the season, prompting Edgerrin James to say that this season will be his last in Arizona. However, that trend changed once the post-season started. James led the way against Atlanta with 16 carries for 73 yards, while rookie Tim Hightower had 6 carries for 23 yards and 1 touchdown. Against Carolina the duel threat of James and Hightower combined for 37 carries, 156 yards, and 1 touchdown.
The Arizona faithful sold this game out in six minutes, which is a change of pace from when the NFL had to extend the blackout deadline for their match-up with Atlanta. You can expect Arizona to keep the roof closed to create as much crowd noise as possible. If the Eagles can shut down Larry Fitzgerald, they should be able to win and get back to the big game.
Eagles 27-10.
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