Ranking The NHL Free Agents - Forwards
With NHL free agency getting started on July 1st, we’re going to take a quick look around the league to see who is available and who the best option is.
In my final installment of free agent rankings, today we’re looking at the forwards that will be available on July 1st. When I first glanced at the list I was somewhat surprised at the amount of talent that will be available, but of course, the salary cap will be a huge factor in signing these players.
You may notice after reading this that I didn’t include players like Joe Sakic and Mats Sundin. I’m guessing that if Sakic even plays, it will definitely be in Colorado, so why bother ranking him in the top tier. I didn’t even want to rank Sundin because of the mess he caused last season by waiting and waiting and waiting, so I just left him off completely. He isn’t a big deal anyways.
Please note: by the time this is posted some of these players may have their rights traded to their future new teams. This was written with the most current information that was available at the time so I apologize if some of these players won’t actually be available on July 1st.
1. Marian Hossa (Detroit) – I was pretty hesitant to put Hossa at number one for a few reasons but decided to do it anyways. For one, his disappearing act in the Finals would concern me greatly if I were a GM. Two, there was a rumored deal during the playoffs that he was already going to sign a long term extension with Detroit before he even hits the market, so writing all this and putting him at number one could be a complete waste of time. However, the deal hasn’t been announced yet (officially) so I decided to write about him anyways.
Since coming into the league, Hossa has been a dynamic player. Since the 2002-03 season in Ottawa, Hossa has tallied regular season point totals of 80, 82, 92, 100, 66 and 71. The fact that his two highest point totals were with Atlanta astounds me even more.
For the most part I don’t think Detroit regrets signing him. He scored an even 40 goals and added 31 assists during the regular season and despite the above mentioned disappearing act in the Finals, he still tallied 15 points in 23 playoff games. Honestly, if my team signed him I would be dancing in the streets, so with that in mind I had to rank him number one.
I’ll be interested to see what he does if Detroit doesn’t come through with the extension though. If he takes the big money from Edmonton it would be a complete flip flop from last off-season where he took the shorter deal to win a Cup and he would resign himself to a career of 8th place finishes in the Western Conference. Chances are his rights will be traded if he doesn’t sign with Detroit.
2. Martin Havlat (Chicago) - Since the 2002-03 season with Ottawa, Havlat has been nearly a point a game player. In that particular season he had 59 points in 67 games. In 2003-04 he had exactly 68 points in 68 games. In 2005-06 he only played in 18 games for Ottawa but still managed 16 points.
He was then dealt to Chicago where he tallied 57 points in 56 games, 27 points in 35 games and 77 points in 81 games this past season. He also racked up 15 points in 16 playoff games this past season for the Hawks.
If I were a GM, the number of games played would be a glaring concern for me. However, you have to take risks as a GM and I think the 28 year old Havlat would be worth the risk. I’m not an expert on hockey in Chicago but I would be surprised if they let Havlat go. Just taking in the fact that they have Nikolai Khabibulin’s monster deal coming off the books would indicate to me that they would have enough to re-sign Havlat.
3. Henrik/Daniel Sedin (Vancouver) – Since both of these guys want matching contracts and won’t split up, I don’t see any use in using up two spots in the rankings for them. Since the lockout Daniel Sedin has put up regular season point totals of 71, 84, 74 and 82. In the same time span, Henrik has scored an impressive 75, 81, 76 and 82 points. As you can see, whichever team decides to sign these guys are getting proven scorers and a deadly scoring line.
But here is the problem. Quite a few teams don’t have an ample amount of money to spend on July 1st, let alone throwing down the money for two of the top scorers at one time (which will be necessary to sign these guys). The Sedin twins have gone on record stating that whoever signs them will have to fork over matching 12 year/63 million dollar contracts. Granted that is a modest 5.25 million per season per player, but it might be hard to find a team with 10.5 million available to invest in two players that will play on the same line. Throw in the fact that they are both 28 and the contracts will last until they are 40, and things get a little bit shakier.
Regardless, whoever gets these guys will be improving their offense a great deal. If Vancouver lets them walk, they will surely notice the drop-off in offense next season. Like Hossa, if they don’t return to Vancouver I am looking for their rights to be traded. I would also like to thank an extremely unreliable hockey site for mentioning the Sabres with the Sedins and now getting my hopes up. Does anybody actually think that would happen? I don’t. I’d love it though.
4. Mike Cammalleri (Calgary) – Cammalleri racked up an impressive 82 points in 81 games last season for the Flames. It was his best season since the 2006-07 campaign with Los Angeles where he had 80 points in 81 games. With a salary of $3.6 million per season, Cammalleri will most likely be looking for a nice little pay raise once he officially hits the market.
I’d be careful in giving him a huge contract though. He only has four full seasons of NHL experience (the others were split between the NHL and AHL). In those four seasons, only the two I mentioned above were worthy of a big fat contract. Nevertheless, he will be worth the risk for some GM and will definitely get a nice new deal out of it.
5. Alexei Kovalev (Montreal) – When Kovalev seemed to give a crap last season; he was premier player and someone I worried about when he had the puck. He had a few issues which resulted in him being left at home during a brief road trip mid-way during the season. I’m not sure I can fully blame Kovalev for that though, since it seems like playing in Montreal isn’t exactly the easiest thing to do.
In the past two seasons for the Habs, Kovalev finished with 84 and 65 points. The 84 point season also helped Montreal lock up the top spot in the Eastern Conference (before falling in the second round). Kovalev is 36 years old and with the potentially shaky play last season, I’d be worried about throwing huge bucks at him. Of course, if my team did sign him I’d be able to talk myself into the deal in about .000034 seconds.
6. Marian Gaborik (Minnesota) – Since the lockout, Gaborik has been better than a point per game player. (66 in 65, 57 in 48, 83 in 77 and 23 in 17). In looking at those numbers however, one might notice that he hasn’t played a full NHL season since…well…ever. To his credit, he did play in 81 games in 2002-03, but I would still be worried about his durability.
This is one player I would be worried about if my team signed him. I would immediately be happy and think about all the goals that would be scored, but then I’d have to think about how risky the signing would be. Trust me; I root for the team that recently signed Tim Connolly to a 2 year / 9 million dollar deal. I talked myself into that deal by saying “if he can stay healthy, it will be a bargain.” Gaborik falls into the same category. Although he is more dynamic, he runs the same risk for whatever team signs him this summer. In my opinion, having one of those players on my team already is more than enough. I’ll pass.
7. Saku Koivu (Montreal) – Koivu is an interesting player hitting the market. He can definitely score, but he has battled quite a few health problems over the years that may drive his price down. This past season he scored 50 points in 65 games, which is a good number, but not worthy of $4.75 million per season (in my opinion). With him being such a mainstay in Montreal, it would be hard for me to picture him elsewhere. Then again, Montreal really has their hands full this summer. Speaking of that…
8. Alex Tanguay (Montreal) – Tanguay has bounced around a bit during his career, but has proven he can score wherever he goes. Before this past season, Tanguay hadn’t played in less than 69 games in his entire career. His last contract was slightly over $5 million per season, which in my mind is still too much for him. One would think Montreal is going to have to keep at least one of these three guys listed in the top 10, so it will be interesting to see who they choose. For the record, Tanguay is the youngest at 29 years of age.
9. Bill Guerin (Pittsburgh) – I hate putting Guerin this high on the list, but I feel like I have to. First, he is 38 years old and second, before being traded to Pittsburgh he was just collecting a paycheck from the Islanders. If he took a pay cut from his monster $4.5 million per season deal, he would be a decent signing. It would make the most sense for Pittsburgh to hang on to him since he seemed to mesh well with the Crosby gang, but I’ve already read rumors that he might head back to New York. I know…it makes no sense to me either.
(Ed note: Shortly after writing this the news broke that Bill Guerin did in fact take a pay cut to stay with Pittsburgh, a good deal for both sides. Score one for common sense!)
10. Nik Antropov (NY Rangers) – Antropov’s short stint in New York was partially successful, minus the fact that the Rangers went out in the first round. Before his trade to New York, Antropov was busy disappointing the Leafs organization and pissing off their fans. He has never played in a full 82 games and never finished with more than 56 points. One might wonder what exactly he is doing on the list. Well, for only making $2.15 million per season, most teams could get over his inconsistent play if he could still manage at least 50 points per season. Now whether he can actually do that or not, that’s another story.
11. Brian Gionta (New Jersey) – Gionta has been a fairly average player with the Devils but has been consistent during his time as well. Since the lockout he has finished the regular season with 89, 45, 53 and 60 points. There are always rumors of him coming to Buffalo but I suspect that’s mainly because he is from Rochester, NY. Maybe this is the year the Sabres go out and get him, but I’m not holding my breath. Don’t get me wrong, I wouldn’t mind having him, but it would definitely have to be at the right price. Just because he calls his home very close to Buffalo doesn’t mean he should be the highest priority.
12. Keith Tkachuk (St Louis) – Tkachuk has been a very consistent and productive player during his long NHL career. At the age of 37, I’m not sure how many years he has left in the tank. Minus the year he was rented to Atlanta (that worked out well), he has spent the better part of this decade with St. Louis. Unless I’m missing something, I don’t see him signing anywhere else this summer.
13. Erik Cole (Carolina) – Cole had a homecoming this season as he was shipped back to Carolina at the trade deadline. He wasn’t a huge factor during their miracle playoff run finishing with only five assists and zero goals in 18 playoff games. He did have 15 points in the last 17 games for Carolina so he can still be a productive scorer. He only had 27 points in 63 games for Edmonton so I would think that he plays best in Carolina’s system and would end up staying there again for another run at the Cup.
14. Mike Comrie (Ottawa) – Mike Comrie is an interesting player as he hits the market. I was doing a little research on his stats and they don’t look like anything Earth shattering, but I still wouldn’t mind seeing my team sign him on July 1st. Maybe it’s the fact that he seems to burn Buffalo every time they face him. Yeah, that must be it. At the age of 28 he is still fairly young and should be a productive player for whoever signs him.
15. Mike Knuble (Philadelphia) – Knuble has been a consistent threat during the last four seasons in Philadelphia. He has finished with 65, 54, 55 and 47 points in the last four regular season campaigns. At the age of 36, he may only get a short term deal, but I wouldn’t be opposed to having him on my team. In four of the last five seasons he has played in all 82 regular season games. That kind of durability can be hard to come by these days. I foresee him moving on only because Philly’s cap situation is pretty muddled already and that was before they acquired Chris Pronger from Anaheim.
957. Maxim Afinogenov (Buffalo) – When Buffalo lets Afinogenov walk this summer, it will be the definition of “addition by subtraction”. This guy can’t leave Buffalo fast enough as far as I’m concerned. I just have to wonder what part of his game the Sabres will miss the most. The blazing speed? The turnovers? The spin-o-rama into a subsequent turnover? The missing of the net? The non-scoring? It’s so hard to decide.
1047. Miroslav Satan (Pittsburgh) – One of the most frustrating factors in watching the Pens hoist the Stanley Cup was knowing that Miroslav Satan is going to have his name forever etched into the Cup. Seriously, has there ever been a more non-deserving player win a championship? Well, Rob Johnson does own his very own Super Bowl ring so I guess Satan has that going for him.
The Calm Before The Storm
- Sean Avery is officially back with the Rangers. I’m sure my hatred for the guy will boil over in about two weeks.
- The Minnesota Wild signed goalie Niklas Backstrom to a four deal with yanks him off the trade market. He is getting a significant pay raise to stay in Minnesota, which is a good deal for both sides.
- Last evening the New Jersey Devils beefed up their defense when they acquired defenseman Niclas Havelid from the Atlanta Thrashers.
- Brendan Morrison, Miroslav Satan and Gary Roberts were all placed on waivers today. Nothing surprises me about Satan. He is about as worthless as they come and I at least got a hearty laugh out of Pittsburgh signing him last off-season. Gary Roberts is a player, depending on his health, that I wouldn’t mind having in Buffalo for the remainder of the season.
- The Sabres are still trying to work out a deal with Tim Connolly but if they don’t, I see a very good chance of him being moved before the deadline tomorrow. He is an impact player, but at what cost? The Sabres have eaten quite a bit of the money from his last contract and they will be cautious in spending a ton on the guy. I’d like to have him back in Buffalo but only at the right cost. If he wants too much and the alternative is losing him in July for nothing, I’m not opposed to moving him if it means getting something worthwhile in return.
Be sure to check in as more stories develop over the next 24 hours.
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6:05EST Update
- Toronto forwards Nik Antropov and Dominic Moore are being held out tonight which almost guarantees that a trade is in the works. There is no information at this time as to what team(s) are involved.
- There is still no word on Bill Guerin and where he is going. He was held out last night for the second straight game so I'd be shocked if a deal didn't go down by tomorrow, although I expected it would've happened by now.
- There are some rumblings that Buffalo is looking to bring back goalie Martin Biron from Philly. I'm not sure if this would be for a rental or if they would eventually want Biron to be the back-up to Ryan Miller again and move Patrick Lalime (which I wouldn't understand).
NHL Top 15: All-Star Break Edition
1. San Jose Sharks: The Sharks came out the gates smoking this season and haven’t stopped yet. San Jose has historically done well in the regular season, but often times fallen short in the playoffs, so time will tell if this Sharks team is for real or not.
2. Boston Bruins: Boston has hands down been the class of the Eastern Conference this season. After sneaking into the playoffs last season with the 8th seed, they gave the top seeded Canadiens all they could handle. For most Bruins fans, that was a sign of things to come this season. If Boston can keep on their game for the second half of the season, look for them to hold down the top spot and challenge for the Presidents Trophy.
3. Detroit Red Wings: Detroit is nipping at San Jose for the top spot in the West. After winning the Stanley Cup last season, all they did during the off-season was dramatically improve by signing Marian Hossa. They also replaced Dominik Hasek with Ty Conklin, who has rewarded them with five shut-outs so far and his second consecutive Winter Classic victory.
4. Washington Capitals: The Capitals have built on their post-season experience last season and have a strangle hold on the SouthEast division so far this season. They have gotten good contributions by several players, including Alex Ovechkin and new goalie Jose Theodore, and now they look to continue rising up the standings in the East. No matter what teams try to do, they can’t seem to stop Alex Ovechkin, as he continues to prove himself as the best player in the league right now.
5. New Jersey Devils: The Devils have surprised many fans by doing as well as they have considering they are missing the cornerstone of the franchise, Martin Brodeur. The Devils are neck and neck with the Rangers and Flyers in the division, but if they can get Brodeur back in time for the playoff race other teams in the East need to be on the lookout. Signing Brendan Shanahan in the middle of the season won’t hurt their chances either.
6. Montreal Canadiens: The Canadiens were most experts pick as the top team in the East, but they have fallen well behind Boston in that race. Still, with half a season to go, anything can happen. They will need to get quite a bit of help in the second half if they plan on winning the NorthEast division, and we’re not talking about the type of help they received in loading up for the All-Star game.
7. Calgary Flames: The Flames are always in the discussion of teams out West due to the consistent play from goaltender Miika Kiprusoff. If he can withstand the usual heavy workload during the stretch run, I look for Calgary to make some noise in April.
8. New York Rangers: Like said above, the Rangers are in a tight division race and could easily fall out of the playoff race altogether if they go on any kind of extended losing streak during the second half. However, if they can get strong goaltending from Henrik Lundqvist, they should be able to make it into the playoffs. Now whether they make it past the second round this year or not is still to be determined.
9. Chicago Blackhawks: The Blackhawks have been a great story so far this season. After years and years of losing, they seem to have turned it around. They made a risky move this season by firing their coach extremely early into the season, but that doesn’t seem to have affected them very much. Much of their success will come down to how well young stars Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews play.
10. Buffalo Sabres: The Sabres started out hot, cooled down, and have since heated right back up once the calendar hit 2009. Since New Years the Sabres have been much better and goalie Ryan Miller looks like he is on top of his game. It will be interesting to see how the Sabres do down the stretch because they have plenty of teams nipping at them in the standings.
11. Philadelphia Flyers: The Flyers have rebounded from a slow start and look back in form so far this season. They will most likely improve even more when they get forward Danny Briere back from injury. However, they will need to clear some cap space in order to make that move, so it will be interesting to see how the front office handles that situation. Much of the Flyers success during the second half will hinge on how well their goaltenders perform and if they get hot at the right time again.
12. Phoenix Coyotes: The Coyotes are doing well so far this season, despite facing bankruptcy and other issues off the ice. They have been a much better team at home than on the road, so they might not last long if they squeak into the playoffs. Then again, once the playoffs start, anything can happen.
13. Anaheim Ducks: The Ducks are hanging around out West but haven’t been very consistent so far this season. They have been pretty average at home and on the road this year. They will need to step up their game down the stretch to continue their post-season streak or they will be watching from home this year.
14. Minnesota Wild: The Wild have gotten very good goaltending from Niklas Backstrom. It shows in the standings as their goal differential is much better than the other teams they are surrounded with in the standings. If the Wild sneak into the post-season, they could cause some trouble for the higher ranked teams, much like Edmonton did a few years ago.
15. Florida Panthers: Florida has done very well so far this season, considering most experts didn’t even have them getting near the playoffs. The play from Florida has been good enough so far this season to have Pittsburgh looking in from the outside at the Eastern Conference playoff picture, but there is still plenty of time for Florida to take control or fall apart. If they slip up and fall out of the race, look for them to deal star defenseman Jay Bouwmeester before the trade deadline.
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