2010 Buffalo Sabres Season Preview
Last season was an exciting one for Buffalo fans as the Sabres ended their two year playoff hiatus by winning the Northeast Division and eventually winning the Stanley Cup flopping in the first round to the sixth seeded Boston Bruins. This was due in large part to Ryan Miller and the best season of his career. To many Buffalo fans, Miller has always been that "really good" goalie that had trouble crossing over into the great category. Not only did he affirm himself as a top three goaltender in the NHL, he almost helped lead Team USA to a stunning gold medal victory in the Olympics. The big question this season will be whether or not he builds on that success or slips a little now that greatness will be expected of him.
Key Additions: Rob Niedermayer (F), Jordan Leopold (D), Shaone Morrisonn (D)
Key Losses: Toni Lydman (D), Henrik Tallinder (D), Tim Kennedy (F), Adam Mair (F)
As usual, it wasn't an exciting offseason for Buffalo (unless you count the death of the slug). On the surface, it would appear that losing Lydman and Tallinder will hurt the blue line quite a bit. But as you'll remember, I've never been overly impressed with either player. Last offseason I was hoping they would both get traded and the Sabres would get something in return for them. Naturally this didn't happen, but the Sabres essentially traded in these two guys for Leopold and Morrisonn during the summer. Are they an upgrade? Well, let's take a look.
2008-09 | GP | Goals | Assists | +/- | Blocked Shots |
T. Lydman | 80 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 166 |
H. Tallinder | 66 | 1 | 11 | -2 | 81 |
J. Leopold | 83 | 7 | 17 | -15 | 100 |
S. Morrisonn | 72 | 3 | 10 | +4 | 98 |
2009-10 | |||||
T. Lydman | 67 | 4 | 16 | +2 | 98 |
H. Tallinder | 82 | 4 | 16 | +13 | 95 |
J. Leopold | 81 | 11 | 15 | -2 | 138 |
S. Morrisonn | 68 | 1 | 11 | +8 | 104 |
Use those numbers and draw whatever conclusion you would like. But I have two last things to consider when evaluating these players. Toni Lydman is 32 years old and Henrik Tallinder is 31. Jordan Leopold is 30 years old and Shaone Morrisonn is 27. Also, Tallinder and Lydman were signed by their new teams for a total of $6,675,000 against the cap. Leopold and Morrisonn will count for a combined $5,075,000 against the cap. Sounds to me like a pretty solid deal.
But enough with the defensemen, let's talk about the forwards.
The only notable addition via free agency is Rob Niedermayer. He won't light up the score sheet for sure, but he provides some good veteran depth and leadership. I don't think it's a coincidence at all that the Sabres matured last season when Mike Grier came back for his second stint with the team. I think the Niedermayer signing is a similar one in that aspect. It's also worth noting that Niedermayer is now the only player on the Sabres current roster with his name on the Stanley Cup. That has to count for something, right?
Leaving the team is Adam Mair and Tim Kennedy. Mair was on the outside looking in when last season started and struggled for the bulk of the season. To his credit though, when the playoffs started, Mair was very noticeable on the ice. Unfortunately for him, Cody McCormick was called up during the playoffs and seemed to play just as well. With that, McCormick looks like he'll be a permanent Sabre this season and Mair was sent packing. I have nothing against Adam Mair and wouldn't have minded it if he came back, but I do like this move. McCormick is younger, might have a little more scoring in him and will definitely drop the gloves when necessary. We've already seen that much so far in the preseason.
Kennedy was the hometown boy that impressed many last season. He definitely had his rough spots during the season and was horrid at taking faceoffs, but overall it would've been worthwhile to bring him back. Kennedy was a RFA and there was little doubt that he'd be back this season. The Sabres offered him a little over $800,000 and a two way contract to remain with the team. Kennedy balked at that offer, mostly the two way part, because he didn't want to be held accountable for his play. If he were to slip up like he did last season, the Sabres would now have the option to send him down to Portland. So Kennedy took the team to arbitration and was rewarded with a $1 million/1 year deal. Because the amount was under a certain limit, the Sabres had no choice but to accept the offer. So the Sabres promptly bought out his contract and sent him packing. Recently, Kennedy has been waived by the Rangers. This means he'll either be playing in the AHL or be unemployed. One has to think that maybe he should've just shut up and taken the Sabres initial offer.
One of the biggest reasons that Kennedy was expendable to the Sabres was the emergence of Tyler Ennis and possibly Nathan Gerbe. Gerbe has had plenty of opportunities to impress the Sabres during numerous call-ups and could never really accomplish much. I'm absolutely in that crowd as I was just about sick of hearing about Gerbe and his "potential". To his credit though, Gerbe got increased playing time during the playoffs and started to impress me. If he can bring that type of game every night, he surely deserves a roster spot.
Ennis got his call-up later than Gerbe or Kennedy, but blew both out of the water when his style of play. In 10 regular season games, Ennis contributed nine points. Similarly, in six playoff games, Ennis chipped in four points. Granted it's a small amount of games, but Ennis has shown the ability to be a near point per game player and I'm all for that. Last time the Sabres thought they had one on the roster they signed him to a 2 year/4.5 million dollar deal.
It's no secret that by the end of last season, I was about as down as you could be on the "core" of the Sabres. But this is where selective memory comes into play. I've all summer to calm down and relax about them. I'm taking a homeristic view into the season that they have another season under their belts and will be more experience and ready to contribute. Just as a disclaimer though, this goes for about the first 10 games of the season. If it becomes more of the same (I'm sure it will) from Pominville, Connolly and the gang; I'll be all for trading them and getting fresh faces in Buffalo. I can only take so much ineptitude and I get the bulk of that from the Bills already.
Looking at the Northeast Division, Boston is really the only team I see as a legit threat to take the title away from Buffalo. Ottawa is getting older and signing Sergei Gonchar didn't exactly address that particular issue. I'm still not enamored by their goaltending situation, though I never really have been. Montreal will be a solid team, but I'm pretty sure trading Halak and keeping Carey Price was the textbook definition of a wrong move. Price has already been booed mercilessly after allowing four goals in the preseason opener. I see that ending well. The Leafs will be improved with J.S. Giguere in net, but well, they're still the Leafs.
And because of the reasons listed above (barring some major injury), I fully expect the Sabres to make a trip to the playoffs again. Realistically I see them as a 4-6 seed, but winning the division is definitely in play.
Projecting the 2010 Buffalo Bills
Back in 2008 when I wrote articles here and there at Billszone, I tried my hand at projecting the Bills schedule before the season started. In that article, I made one huge fatal mistake that doomed the entire article. For a brief moment, I turned into a total homer and completely forgot that the team was still coached by Dick Jauron. Looking back at it, I can't believe that I actually thought the Bills would finish 10-6. At least my negative opinion on Brett Favre has remained consistent throughout the years.
I never projected the 2009 Bills schedule; however I did predict them to finish 5-11 in my AFC East preview, so that kind of counts, right? Unlike the Bills, I made a huge improvement within one season. This excites me greatly. And with that, let's break down the 2010 Buffalo Bills schedule in brutal game-by-game detail.
Week 1: Miami Dolphins
Week 2: @ Green Bay Packers
I really see no way that the Bills can beat the Packers, let alone beating them in Green Bay. The last time Buffalo and Green Bay faced each other, the Bills came out on top thanks in large part to multiple bonehead turnovers from the turnover machine himself, Brett Favre. However Green Bay has moved on and improved greatly in this area. The Bills strongest point is their pass defense, but I still don't think it will be good enough to stop Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay passing attack. In case everyone forgot his last meaningful game, Rodgers went off in Arizona to the tune of 28 for 42, 423 yards, 4 touchdowns, and a 121.3 QB rating. Granted the Green Bay secondary was shredded worse by Kurt Warner, but um, the Bills will most likely be starting Trent Edwards, who isn't exactly Kurt Warner. Interesting note, this game has the potential to be the Brian Brohm grudge match if he wins the starting job. Seriously, this is what we've resorted to as Bills fans. (1-1)
Week 3: @ New England Patriots
It's been so long since Buffalo defeated New England that I can barely remember when it happened. I'm not even going to look this up but I feel pretty confident in stating that the Bills have never won a game in Gillette Stadium since it became the new home for the Patriots several years ago. With that in mind, I see no reason to think that this year will be any different. My Boston angst continues. (1-2)
Week 4: NY Jets
The Bills and Jets are usually good for splitting the season series, despite how good or bad each team is. Last year they split and the Bills were a five win team while the Jets were one win away from the Super Bowl. In 2008 the Jets swept Buffalo, but that is only because the glorious combination of Losman and Jauron decided to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. They must have been returning the favor because in 2007 the Bills swept. In 2003, 2004, 2005, and 2006, all splits. So really for me, it's a matter of which game do the Bills get and which do the Jets get. Since their second meeting will be in Week 17 where the Jets will probably have the playoffs locked up and playing scrub ball, I'll give this game to the Jets and that game to the Bills. (1-3)
Week 5: Jacksonville Jaguars
Last season the Bills almost beat the Jags in Jacksonville. Given the circumstances, it really showed how bad the Jags were. The Bills had just fired their coach and Ryan Fitzpatrick was starting the game. If that wasn't enough, Fitzpatrick hit Terrell Owens for a 98 yard touchdown at one point in the game. I have to be honest, even in past seasons when the Jags were playoff bound, I've never really thought of them as a good team. Given that this game is early in the season and in Buffalo, I can very well see the Bills stealing this game with a last second field goal. (2-3)
Week 6: BYE
Week 7: @ Baltimore Ravens
Coming out of the bye week, it's the Willis McGahee revenge game: part two. The first revenge game was won by Buffalo, but to be honest, it felt like a loss. If it wasn't for Rian Lindell bailing out the pathetic Bills offense with four field goals, the Bills easily lose that game. In addition to that, the Bills benefitted from some horrendous play calling by Baltimore and their now former coach, Brian Billick. Finally, McGahee scored on a 46 yard touchdown run and finished the day with 114 yards, so it wasn't like the Bills shut him down and proved any point. If anything he stuck it to Buffalo a little bit, despite losing the game. This time the game is in Baltimore and the Ravens have Joe Flacco, not Kyle Boller. (2-4)
Week 8: @ Kansas City Chiefs
For as bad as the Bills have been the past two seasons, Kansas City has actually been worse. If you don't believe me, please see exhibit A and exhibit B. In fact, the Chiefs haven't defeated the Bills since 2003. You can go ahead and put me in the group of people that was never really impressed with Matt Cassel and figured that Kansas City was making a huge mistake last season. I don't see any reason why this year will be any different. Plus I'm sure Chan Gailey would like to get back at his former team just a little bit. (3-4)
Week 9: Chicago Bears (Toronto)
I'm sure the Bills could beat the Bears, but that would require the Bills to actually win a game in the lifeless "Bills in Toronto" series that makes just about every Bills fan sick. I have absolutely no fear of the Bills leaving for Canada, so that isn't the reason this game bothers me at all. It's more along the lines of the Bills throwing away a home game, playing on a crappy field in the Rogers Centre, and playing in front of about 30,000 fans who could give a damn about the Bills. It's practically a neutral field game. Reminds me of those junky bowl games in mid-December that nobody cares about. At least the Bills smartened up and stopped giving away division games. (3-5)
Week 10: Detroit Lions
The Lions might be an improved team, which isn't saying much, but the Bills should be able to get a win here. Don't get me wrong, the Bills are a bad team, but please also remember that the Lions are a team that has two combined victories in their last 32 regular season games. It will be interesting to see these two teams actually play a real game though. I'm so used to just seeing them play their annual scrub bowl game in the last week of the pre-season that this should be a nice change of pace for sure. Then again, a week 10 meeting between the Bills and Lions isn't exactly a marquee matchup. (4-5)
Week 11: @ Cincinnati Bengals
I bet you're thinking there is no way the Bills can beat the Bengals on the road this late in the season. This is where I say you're wrong. I know this means absolutely nothing in regards to the game this year, but does anybody realize the last time the Bengals even defeated the Bills. I'll give everyone a hint: I was only three years old. That's right; it was in January of 1988. Again, I know this has no bearing on the game this season, but when you're a Bills fan, crazy trends and statistics are about all we have to go on. (5-5)
At this point I'd like to note that this will officially start the "mathematically in the playoff race" talk for the Bills, when in reality, there is no way they are making the playoffs. It's an annual tradition for us Bills fans and late November seems like a good time to start it off.
Week 12: Pittsburgh Steelers
For me personally, not all Bills fans, these two weeks of the season are going to be pure hell. Even the occasional reader of this site should be able to pick up on the fact that I really dislike all Pittsburgh sports and I'm not exactly wearing Wranglers and joining the Brett Favre fan club anytime soon. Honestly, the Bills could go 2-14 this season with these two games being the only wins, and I'd be perfectly content with that. All that being said, the Bills will lose these two games and make my life a living hell until at least early February. On the positive side, I'm pretty sure I'm going to break the record for most rapist jokes told in a one week span. (5-6)
Week 13: @ Minnesota Vikings
If I were a fortunate sports fan, things would make sense, and Brett Favre would turn the ball over at least four times and throw away an easy victory against the Bills. Watching Brett Favre play is like being a little kid and waking up on Christmas morning. The anticipation of the inevitable turnover that costs his team the game is overwhelming at times. Last season Favre did his best to disprove this theory, but the world righted itself when it mattered most and as we all know, the Saints went on to win the Super Bowl. So like I said, if things made sense, the sports gods would throw me a bone and let the Bills win this game while forcing multiple turnovers. But that isn't the way things work for Buffalo fans and I'm starting to accept that. Instead Favre will most likely go off for at least three touchdowns while posting a perfect 158.3 QB rating. Oh and I'm pretty sure whoever I'm playing in fantasy that week will start Favre and ruin my season there as well. (5-7)
Week 14: Cleveland Browns
The Bills should be able to beat the Browns at home. Then again, they should've been able to beat the Browns at home the past two seasons as well. In fact, the Browns have actually defeated the Bills in the past three seasons, all by a combined 13 points. This includes a game that ended 8-0 and 6-3. Let's just say these two teams don't get together and put on the greatest show for the fans. Something has to give though. I can't possibility mark down a fourth consecutive loss to the Browns. (6-7)
Week 15: @Miami Dolphins
I hate how the NFL schedule has the Dolphins in Buffalo for the early game and the Bills in Miami for the late game. We all know it should be flipped around so the Dolphins are playing in the elements. Not that it matters though. By this point in the season the Bills will probably have an NFL leading 26 people on injured reserve and starting players that just finished their UFL season. (6-8)
Week 16: New England Patriots
If the Patriots haven't sealed the division by this point of the season, this game should do the trick. The Patriots have dominated the Bills so much recently that I wouldn't be surprised if they just became part owners of the team. The trend has to end sometime but there is no way I'm predicting it. I've been down that road before and it's ruined my credibility. What? I never had any credibility to start. Hmm, oh well. (6-9)
Week 17: @ NY Jets
As I highlighted above, the Bills and Jets are a safe bet to split the season series which would give the Bills the Week 17 victory and a solid seven wins for the 2010 season. One way this would be avoided is if the Jets need this victory to make the playoffs and actually show up to play. Otherwise, mark it down as a split. (7-9)
I have to be completely honest; predicting the Bills to finish 7-9 is taking a gigantic leap of faith. They could realistically be a two or three win team in 2010. However, that would give the Bills the number one or two overall draft pick in 2011, and we wouldn't want that to happen. The Bills have specialized in being bad enough to consistently miss the playoffs, but good enough to at least have mid-round draft pick. 7-9 sounds just right.
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