LCS Preview and Predictions
I managed to pick 3 out of 4 winners in the first round of the playoffs, my lone mistake was picking the Cardinals over the Dodgers. The afternoon that I posted my picks, I spoke with my father on the phone and he told me that the Dodgers would take the series and return to their stronger earlier season form, looks like he had that pegged. Thus far we've seen some impressive performances from the Yankees, Angels, and Dodgers, all sweeping their opposition in the first round. Philadelphia took an extra game to dispatch of the Rockies, but looked solid in doing so as well. Now we progress to the League Championship Series for both sides and some intriguing matchups in the process. Let's take a look at the NL first, which gets started this evening.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
This is a rematch of the NLCS from last year, which Philly took in 5 games on their way to winning the World Series. The Dodgers seek some measure of revenge and have home field advantage on their side this time, for whatever that might be worth. Los Angeles won the regular season series between the two clubs, 4 games to 3, including back to back walk off wins, thanks in large part to Andre Ethier, as well as Brad Lidge, who blew saves in both games. The Dodgers certainly appeared as the better of the two teams in the first round, sweeping the Cardinals with relative ease, while the Phillies battled in some close games to beat the Rockies in 4. The good news for Philly fans is that Brad Lidge seemed a little more solid than he did most of the season, getting saves in Games 3 and 4.
Starting pitching seems to be the big question mark for Philadelphia. Cliff Lee through a complete game and nearly had the shutout before surrendering a run with 2 outs in the 9th in his first career postseason start. He was solid again in Game 4 and looks to be the ace of the staff moving forward. Last season's World Series MVP Cole Hamels has been the concern however. He has been unable to capture last season's magic and was responsible for the lone loss in the NLDS against Colorado. He'll need to get better quickly in order to deal with LA. Philadelphia has not announced their full rotation for the NLCS yet, but Cole Hamels looks to get back on the mound in Game 1, and Cliff Lee likely won't see his next start until Game 3. The bottom line is that the less Philadelphia has to rely on Brad Lidge to save games, the better off they'll be. Lidge was masterful last season, but has returned to shaky form this year, and the pressure only gets greater from here on out.
The Dodgers rotation has been determined and will see Clayton Kershaw facing Hamels in Game 1, while Vincente Padilla, Hiroki Kuroda, and Randy Wolf after that. Kershaw did not fare well against the Phillies this year, going 0-2 with an ERA over 5, but was great in a Game 2 duel with Adam Wainwright against the Cardinals in the first round. Padilla pitched very well in Game 3 against the Cardinals, giving up 4 hits and no runs in 7 innings of work. Kuroda returns after missing the NLDS and the end of the regular season with a neck injury and in his lone appearance against Philadelphia this year, he threw 6 shutout innings but didn't get the decision. Wolf struggled a bit in Game 1 against St. Louis, but it was of no matter as the Dodgers still found a way to win the game. Starting the 4th game means he'll likely get just the one appearance in this series however.
As far as the bats go, both teams have some firepower at their disposal. For the Dodgers, Ethier and Matt Kemp provide the biggest power and run producing threats. The team as a whole isn't loaded with home run ability, but they are effective at putting up runs and were tied for the NL lead in batting average at year's end. Kemp and left fielder Juan Pierre also help the cause with their base stealing abilities, as both had 30+ in the regular season. Manny Ramirez has been quiet thus far in the postseason, but he does have a flair for the dramatic, and with the spotlight growing, we might see some more out of him in this round.
The Phillies scored more runs than any other team in the NL this year and have 4 guys who hit 30 or more home runs this year. Ryan Howard of course leads the way with 45 on the season to go along with 141 RBIs. In the first round against Colorado, Howard didn't homer, but he did bat .375 with 6 runs batted in. The team had 6 guys hit .300+ in the first round and certainly hopes the bats will stay hot against LA. Philadelphia certainly has the better top to bottom batting order in this series, and if they can get to the Dodger pitching early, it will do a lot for their chances. With guys like Chase Utley, Jayson Werth, and Raul Ibanez surrounding Howard, there isn't much option of picking and choosing who to pitch to.
I see this series shaking out as follows. The Dodgers will likely have the best of the pitching matchups in Games 1 and 2 at home, and as long as their bats continue to produce, they should take both games. The Phillies head home for 3 after that and have Cliff Lee on the mound in Game 3, which I would expect them to win fairly easily. I expect Randy Wolf to struggle in Game 4 as well against the Philly bats and can see them jumping out to a big early lead in that one. That would tie the series at 2-2 and bring us back around to Hamels vs. Kershaw again, this time in Philadelphia. This will be the pivotal game in my eyes, and I think whoever wins Game 5 will take the series. I think Hamels will fare better at home, but I can't pick against my dad again. I'll take the Dodgers to win the key Game 5 and head back to LA to finish off the series. Cliff Lee pitches well again in Game 6, but Brad Lidge blows the save to end the Phillies season and send the Dodgers to their first World Series since Kirk Gibson's famous home run en route to winning the 1988 championship.
LA Dodgers in 6 Games
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim vs. New York Yankees
The Angels finally got over the hump and beat Boston in the playoffs. Not only did they beat the Red Sox, they swept them in relatively easy fashion. At home, the Angels took care of Boston by scores of 5-0 and 4-1, getting dominant pitching in both games. Game 3 went to Fenway Park and while the Angels weren't as stifling, they still managed to get the win 7-6, scoring 3 runs in the 9th as Jonathan Papelbon blew the save for the Red Sox. Meanwhile, the Yankees looked equally impressive in dispatching of the Minnesota Twins via a sweep as well. The Yankees utilized solid pitching as well, but ultimately, in typical Yankee fashion, it was the long ball that got the job done for New York. Two home runs in each game helped propel the Yankees out of the first round of the playoffs for the first time since 2004. The Angels and Yankees split 10 games over the course of the regular season, and for the most part, there were no shortage of runs scored. The scoring might come down a little in the postseason, but I'd still expect to see some fireworks at some point in this series.
The Angels rotation for the ALCS sees John Lackey get Game 1, followed by Joe Saunders, Jered Weaver, and Scott Kazmir. Saunders didn't pitch in the 1st round, but brings a 16-7 record to the table. He gets the start in Game 2 mostly due to being a lefty and the short right field fence in Yankee Stadium. Weaver also has a much better record at home, so pushing him to Game 3 seems a smart choice for the Angels. Lackey and Weaver both through very well against Boston, and while Kazmir struggled a bit at Fenway, ultimately, the Angels proved able to overcome it and won anyways. Regardless of who is pitching in what games, the starters will have their hands full when it comes to the Yankees lineup and the power that lies within it.
The big talk this week has been focused on the Yankees looking to utilize a 3 man rotation for this series. It's not a traditional move, and it would concern me a bit if I were a Yankees fan. There is a reason pitchers no longer get just 3 days rest between starts and it's because they become much less effective once they do. The Yankees look to throw C.C. Sabathia first, followed by A.J. Burnett and Andy Pettitte, the same rotation they went with against Minnesota. The goal is to get two starts out of Sabathia, and a third if they need it. Looking back at last year, the Brewers tried this approach down the stretch to get themselves into the postseason and again once they got there. Sabathia wore down quickly and began to struggle near the end and this should be a concern to the Yankees. I can understand the strategy being used in the World Series, but the ALCS seems risky to me, because then the effects might be seen if the team does in fact make it to the final round. Of course, the best way to alleviate any worries is to win the series quickly, which will make the whole idea null and void.
The Angels lineup didn't provide a ton of production against Boston in the first round, but it didn't really need to either. The pitching was strong and the Angels' bats did just enough to provide the run support necessary to get bye. Much like their LA counterparts, the Dodgers, the Angels aren't loaded up with home run power, but instead rely on all around solid hitting and quickness on the base paths to manufacture runs. The Angels were 2nd only to the Yankees in runs scored, but easily lead the AL in batting average during the course of the regular season. Bobby Abreu's 5/9 batting performance coupled with 4 runs scored lead the way for the Angels in the first round, while Vlad Guerrero and Erick Aybar were also solid against Boston. The bats will need to continue to perform to keep up with the Yankees in the ALCS.
One look at the Yankees lineup and it's easy to see how they were the only team to clear 900 runs scored in the regular campaign. They also had 20 more home runs and 40 more RBIs than the next closest teams, and were only slightly behind the Angels when it came to batting average. 7 different players cleared 20 home runs and 80 RBIs on the year for the Bronx Bombers, so there really is little relief top to bottom in their lineup. Alex Rodriguez finally seems ready to shed his title as a postseason choke artist after his first round dominance against Minnesota. A-Rod hit .455 with 2 HRs, 6 RBIs, and 4 runs scored in 3 games. Captain Derek Jeter didn't disappoint either, hitting .400 and scoring 4 runs of his own. Simply put, if the Yankees continue at this level of production, stopping them is going to be nearly impossible.
Looking at these two teams, one thing is crystal clear: Offense is plentiful. Both teams can hit and score, and have proven it multiple times over. So then, it comes down to the pitching, as is almost always the case in postseason baseball. I'm leery of the 3 man lineup the Yankees have elected to go with and I think the Angels have the better rotation over all. However, the Yankees have the guys that are more capable of putting in a dominant performance and coming as close as possible to shutting down the other team's offensive abilities, primarily with Sabathia. With the offense that will be on display, odds are the bullpens will be used heavily, and I certainly give that edge to the Yankees as well. New York is so scared of putting Joba Chamberlain in the starting rotation that it caused them to go with 3 guys instead, but Chamberlain is far more effective out of the bullpen from what I've seen anyways. Brian Fuentes has proved himself a capable closer for the Angels, but Mariano Rivera in the postseason is about as close as you can come to a sure thing in the closer role.
Again, I'm not at all confident with the Yankees choice to go with 3 starting pitchers, but I think that ultimately their offense is going to outperform that of the Angels and nullify the pitching battles anyways. I expect the Yankees to grab Game 1 with Sabathia throwing and while Game 2 might be a close one, the Yankees just have too much power in such a small stadium and will head to LA up 2. I like Weaver to get the Angels a win over Pettitte in Game 3, but I think it's the only one they're going to manage. In the end, the offense is too much to contain and the Yankees are finally heading back to the World Series, much to the delight of their fans everywhere... and much to the dismay of the rest of us who can't stand listening to said Yankees fans. I can't stand the Yankees and never will, but I can freely acknowledge that they are the team to beat this year.
New York Yankees in 5 Games
Devin's Picks:
Los Angeles Dodgers in 7 games
New York Yankees in 6 games
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