MLB Playoffs - AL Divisional Round
10/07/2009 | Posted by
Scott Lunn
In case you somehow missed it, Devin already previewed the National League and made his picks, you can check it out HERE. Way back at the beginning of April, I previewed the 2009 season for the American League, and much to my surprise, I actually picked all 3 division winners correctly. I did miss out on the wild card however, as I expected the Rays to make a return to the postseason, and in fact, the World Series. That clearly didn't work out, but I'll take 3 out of 4 and be happy. Enough patting myself on the back, let's take a look at the series matchups, which get under way this evening.
Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees
It took the Twins 163 games and a few extra innings, but they made it to the postseason just the same. No team was hotter down the stretch than Minnesota, winning 17 of their last 21 games and erasing a very large Detroit Tigers lead on the AL Central. Along the way, the Twins had winning streaks of 6, 5, and 5, proving that they are capable of playing big time baseball when it counts. The issue now is that they've hurt themselves badly in the pitching department just trying to get to the playoffs, coupled with the fact that they have to face a Yankee team they went 0-7 against this season.
With Scott Baker pitching last night and Carl Pavano on just 3 day's rest Sunday, tonight's game 1 start falls to Brian Duensing (5-2). Duensing had a respectable 3.64 ERA on the season, but he's never pitched in a game this big. He's facing the Yankees at Yankee Stadium in October and the nerves will be in full gear. Not to mention this C.C. Sabathia (19-8) guy is starting for the Yankees. Last I checked, he's good... even if he does look like he's wearing pajamas on the mound. It's going to be a rough start for Minnesota, who is likely drained from the emotion of last night's game, going up against a fresh and rested Yankees club.
The Yankees finished up the regular season with the best record in baseball and as the only team to win over 100 games this year. They also scored 915 runs in the process, also easily best in the Majors. Offense is the key for the Yankees, but it tends to be dominant pitching that gets the job done in the postseason. Sabathia is certainly dominant, but after that, the starting rotation gets questionable. A.J. Burnett (13-9) has a tendency to be erratic from time to time and could be a concern deeper in the playoffs, but he pitched well against Minnesota earlier this year. Andy Pettite (14-8) has been there, done that when it comes to playoff baseball, but is he still the big game pitcher he was once known to be? I don't think so, but I also don't believe he has to be at this point.
The Yankees probably have the best bullpen in the playoffs this year. Phil Hughes has transitioned well into his role as the setup man for closer Mariano Rivera, who is simply the best to ever fill that role. If the game is in New York's favor in the last few innings, I like their odds of holding on for a win. That's exactly how I expect this series to go too. With favorable pitching matchups, and much more offensive power on the Yankees side, I see them jumping out to early leads and then managing to hold on late. I see the Yankees dominating game 1 tonight and winning a tight battle in game 2. Minnesota may steal one once they get back to the Metrodome, but I don't think they have enough left in the tank to keep up with a dominant Yankees squad.
New York in 4 games
Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
It's been 6 months since I did the A.L. preview, and it still feels ridiculous to type that out, so for the sake of brevity and sanity, we'll go with LAAoA from here on out. Boston has beaten the Angels in this round twice in a row coming into this season, and looks to continue that trend from the wild card spot this year. The Red Sox finished up a respectable 95-67, but were still 8 games back of the Yankees for the AL East crown. It was still good enough to send them to the playoffs for the 6th time in 7 years however, and we've seen what they can do as the wild card team in the past.
The Red Sox lost the season series between themselves and the Angels, sporting a 4-5 record, but Boston tends to find another gear once October hits. Jon Lester (15-8) gets the nod in Game 1 and brings his 3.41 ERA to the West Coast. Lester didn't face the Angels at all this season, so it's difficult to know what to expect. The Angels have John Lackey (11-8) to counter, who did face Boston earlier this year and got a loss, despite throwing a solid game, allowing just 2 earned runs in 7.2 innings.
Hitting may be the issue in this series however, as both teams can put runs on the board. The Angels and Red Sox were 2nd and 3rd respectively in runs scored, trailing just the Yankees in the regular season. For the Red Sox, Jason Bay lead the way with 36 HRs and 119 RBIs on the year, while Kevin Youkilis, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Dustin Pedroia also had solid years, hovering right around .300 batting averages. It's hard to forget about David Ortiz as well. Despite a dreadful start to the year, he still finished up with 28 HRs and 99 RBIs, not to mention he's quite known for performing in the clutch.
The Angels got a career year out of 1st baseman Kendry Morales, who put up 34 HRs and 108 RBIs in his first season of full time duty. Juan River, Bobby Abreu, Erick Aybar, Torii Hunter, and Chone Figgins all had very solid years as well for a well-rounded Angels lineup. Figgins and Abreu combined for 72 stolen bases, so the team can run as well.
The Angels were 97-65 and coasted to another AL West division win, finishing 10 games ahead of the Rangers. It was the 3rd straight division title for the LAAoA, and the 5th in 6 years. The Angels starting rotation is solid and has depth, which could pay off should they advance, but in the first round, it's more about having the one or two dominant guys. The game 2 matchups will have the Angels throwing Jared Weaver (16-8) against Boston's Josh Beckett (17-6), while game 3 is set to be Scott Kazmir (10-9) for LA, up against Clay Bucholz (7-4) for Boston.
If Lackey can steal game one for the Angels, I like their odds in this series. Beckett figures to take game 2 in my opinion, but then the Angels have the upper hand I think. Either way, I thoroughly expect this to be a tight series from top to bottom. Boston has the more powerful lineup, hitting 212 home runs to the Angels 173, but I think LA has a more well rounded group of hitters, with a .285 average trumping Boston's .270. My guess is that whoever wins game 1 will take the series, and I have a feeling it's going to be the Angels.
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in 5 games
As Devin mentioned, we have some ridiculous need to compete whenever possible, so I'm going to go ahead and pick the NL series as well and we shall see who comes out on top.
Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies in 4
I think Philly's pitching will hold out against Colorado and definitely give the lineup edge to them as well
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Cardinals in 4
I simply don't trust the Dodgers pitching, and they showed why down the stretch. Oh yeah, and St. Louis has that Pujols guy... he's a solid ball player in my estimation.
MLB Playoffs – NL Divisional Round
10/07/2009 | Posted by
Devin
If there is one thing I know, it's Major League Baseball. Do you know how I know this? The team I predicted to represent the NL in the World Series before the season started finished with the best record in the NL during the regular season. Don't believe me? Here, take a look. Oh, and please don't pay attention to how I missed on the other three playoff teams.
Colorado Rockies vs Philadelphia Phillies
The Rockies were pushed hard by my Atlanta Braves but they managed to hang on and secure the wildcard for the second time in three years. They face a very stiff challenge in the first round as they take on the defending champion Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies themselves had a great year as they pretty much cruised to their third straight NL East crown.
In Game One, we'll see Ubaldo Jimenez take the mound for Colorado while trade deadline acquisition Cliff Lee gives it a go for Philadelphia. Lee was almost an afterthought as Philadelphia pushed hard for Toronto's Roy Halladay but eventually refused to give up the huge package that Toronto was demanding. That move seemed to be a good one for Toronto. Lee then proceeded to win his first give games for the Phillies in dominating fashion before falling back down to Earth. He eventually finished 7-4 in the NL and 14-13 overall for the season. The NL record is a good one for Lee but some people might be concerned with the fact that he lost his last two starts. Amazingly enough, this will be Jimenez's first time facing Philadelphia this season. Lee faced Colorado just after his trade to Philadelphia going seven innings, striking out nine, and only allowing one earned run.
Game Two appears to be an advantage for Colorado as Aaron 
Some people might be inclined to pick Philadelphia because they are a division winner and Colorado simply won the wild card, but let's relax on that sentiment my friends. The Phillies finished the season 93-69 which is only one game better than Colorado at 92-70. Along with their records, most of their statistics were identical. The Rockies had the better team batting average at .261 to .258. The Phillies had more runs per game at 5.1 to 5.0. And the ERA was also better for Philadelphia, 4.16 to 4.22.
Simply put, this is a very tight series and appears to be going five games. I'm going with the Phillies for the simple reason that they are the defending champs and that has to mean something once playoff baseball starts.
Philadelphia in 5
St Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Dodgers
I know I picked the Dodgers to represent the NL in the World Series, but it isn't happening. Postseason baseball comes down to one huge factor and that factor is pitching.
In Game One, we have Chris Carpenter (17-4) going against Randy Wolf (11-7). Since going 2-3 in the month of June, Carpenter has tallied an impressive record of 12-1. Included in those wins are two victories against the Dodgers. On July 27th, Carpenter pitched seven innings of one run baseball in a 6-1 victory for St Louis. Then on August 17th, he pitched eight innings of two run baseball to get the Cardinals another victory, 3-2. This isn't meaning to be a slight against Wolf, I just think Carpenter is that good. Wolf was the starting pitched for LA on that July 27th game against Carpenter but he only lasted six innings and took the loss. He hasn't faced St Louis at any 
Game Two pits another pitching matchup heavily in favor of St Louis as Adam Wainwright (19-8) goes against Clayton Kershaw (8-8). Wainwright faced the Dodgers twice this season, going 1-0 and pitching at least seven innings in each game. Just for the record, in the game where he got the no decision, the Cardinals did win the game 3-2. Kershaw faced the Cardinals twice as well but got a no decision in each contest. It should be a point of interest that the Dodgers did lose both of those games 3-2 and in one of them, Kershaw only lasted 3.2 innings.
Don't get me wrong, I'd love for the Dodgers to win the NL (and possibly face Boston in the World Series) but I just don't see it happening. They may have finished with the best record in the NL, but I am not quite sure that they are the best team. Before actually winning their last two games against Colorado to seal the NL West crown, the Dodgers lost five games in a row and seven out of nine. That isn't exactly the best swing of momentum as they hit the most important part of the season. On top of that, St Louis won the season series against Los Angeles 5-2.
St Louis in 4
Scott will be posting his breakdown and predictions for the AL series tomorrow before these series get started. Because we're overly competitive with picking things, I'll post my predictions for the AL series below so that we can keep track and see who does the best.
Boston Red Sox vs California Angels
Yes, I know they aren't the California Angels. I just refuse to write out that ridiculously long name.
Red Sox in 4
Twins vs New York Yankees
The Yankees are good…really good.
Yankees in 3
(Cue the rivalry footage)
NBA Conference Finals
5/18/2009 | Posted by
Scott Lunn
Another round of the NBA Playoffs is in the books and we now know the last 4 teams standing. Devin will post his predictions in the next day or two, as well as give an update on the standings of our contest thus far, so be sure to check back for that. We have some intriguing matchups upon us as the Lakers and Nuggets do battle in the West, and in an exact opposite scenario from the NHL, instead of 2 of my least favorite teams doing battle in the East, the only 2 NBA teams I really give a damn about are going head to head with the Cavaliers facing off against the Magic. Let's get started shall we?
Western Conference Finals:
(1) Los Angeles Lakers vs. (2) Denver Nuggets
Well, it only took until Game 7 before the Lakers realized that they were the far superior team in their series with Houston, but they got the job done with ease in that game and are moving on. Despite winning with ease, the Lakers really didn't impress me too much in Game 7 as they still didn't play to the level they are capable of, but instead, relied on Houston to meltdown and play some truly terrible basketball. If the Lakers would play up to their abilities, this shouldn't have been a series, even before Yao Ming was lost to injury. One of the biggest problem with the Lakers, and perhaps the reason a lot of people really dislike Los Angeles as a team, is the fact that have a high tendency to just take games off and coast through. I dislike this fact in the regular season, but really can't stand it in the playoffs.
Denver on the other hand has played some of the best basketball I've seen from any team in the postseason. I will freely admit at this point that I vastly underestimated their abilities and was a bit surprised at how they took care of Dallas with relative ease. I've gone on record before as not being a very big Carmelo Anthony fan, but he's been playing extremely well and looks more comfortable in his revised role with more help around him. Chauncey Billups is the biggest difference in this Denver team and past versions however. He runs the offense very effectively and can score the ball when it's needed as well. He has a calming veteran leadership quality to him that was severely lacking for the Nuggets the last few seasons. If their level of play keeps up against Los Angeles, we could have one heck of a series on our hands.
I've been thinking about this series since yesterday afternoon, and the more I analyze it, the more reasons I see why Denver could very well and maybe even should win a trip to the NBA Finals. First off, just look at the performances of the two teams coming into the series. Denver is on top of their game, playing fantastic basketball. Los Angeles on the other hand is playing Jekyll and Hyde, struggling against a team they should have put away with ease.
Next, most of the matchups seem to favor Denver. Derek Fisher and the revolving point guard crew for LA couldn't handle Aaron Brooks from Houston, and I think it goes without saying that Chauncey Billups is a fair amount better. Carmelo Anthony has been playing some of his best basketball to date, and while Trevor Ariza is a quality role player who does some of the intangible things very well, he's not going to shut down Anthony. On the other hand, Kobe Bryant should be primed to go off in this series. He hasn't played up to his capabilities so far in the playoffs and he's going to have Dahntay Jones on him this round. Jones is not a threat on the offensive end, so Kobe isn't going to have to play hard on defense, which means he'll have all sorts of energy when he has the ball in his hands.
Where it gets most interesting to me is with the big guys. Los Angeles has Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol up front, with an injured Lamar Odom thrown in the mix as well. Bynum has largely been invisible as of late, and Gasol, while a solid scoring threat, has been playing horrible defense. After Yao went down, Luis Scola went off in Games 5 and 6 with Gasol guarding him. No offense to Scola, but Kenyon Martin, Nene, and Chris Anderson would concern me more than him. None of those guys are offensive powerhouses, but they are hustle players who get easy baskets from time to time because of their effort. They also chase down rebounds and all three are monsters defensively. I see Gasol and Bynum struggling mightily in this series.I really do think it's going to come down to Kobe, and the Lakers aren't usually at their best when Bryant is jacking up 30+ shots a game. As I said, I have a laundry list of reasons why the Nuggets should win this series... except their is a big, fat, hairy BUT lurking. Before the playoffs began, I said Lakers vs. Cavs in the finals, and I can't change that now. Television wants that matchup, fans want that matchup, and you know damn well that David Stern and the NBA want that matchup. Kobe vs. LeBron has been all over advertisements and everything else as of late, and the ratings for that series would probably top anything the NBA has mustered since that Jordan guy left the league.
Los Angeles in 7 games
Eastern Conference Finals:
(1) Cleveland Cavaliers vs. (3) Orlando Magic
As I mentioned at the top of this post, this series is like the exact opposite of what is going on in the NHL's Eastern Conference. I've never been a big NBA fan and I haven't really followed any one team since my far younger days. I do however follows a few players in the league, and the 2 at the top of that list are LeBron James and Dwight Howard. I love both these guys and the energy and skills they bring, but mostly I love their enthusiasm and the fact that they both look to truly be enjoying the hell out of what they get paid a ton of money to go do. I doubt I'll miss a game of this series and those two are the main reason why.
Cleveland has plowed through the competition thus far and appears to be very focused on their goal of an NBA title. 8 games, 8 wins by double digits thus far. Their average margin of victory so far in the playoffs is nearly 17 points per game. Mr. James is currently averaging a mind boggling 33 points, 10 rebounds, and 7 assists per game and has shown no signs of slowing down at all. While he has been the main ingredient without doubt, the rest of the team has fulfilled their roles nicely as well, with Mo Williams and Delonte West both scoring in double figures. Add in Big Z and Anderson Varejao in the front court, and it's not hard to see why Cleveland is making it look so easy. I do believe they are in for a least a little bit of a challenge in the East Finals however.
Orlando has looked a little shaky at times through the first two rounds, but they've proven that they are contenders as well now. Knocking off the defending champions in a Game 7 on the road is not an easy task, but Orlando kind of made it look like it was. The Magic pulled out their best game of the playoffs just in time and ensured that there would be no repeat champion this year. They went to Dwight Howard in the middle early and when Boston shifted their defensive attention to him, the Magic started lighting it up from the outside. When Orlando is hitting the 3's at the level they are capable of, you'd be hard pressed to find a team that can stay with them. That's the problem with them however, it's hard to be consistent in draining shots from the outside night in and night out.
The Cavaliers have not been tested yet at all this postseason, and while I'm probably in the minority, I don't think the long layoff heading into this series with Orlando is going to help them much. Orlando just got themselves a big dose of momentum and they might be able to parlay that into stealing a game in Cleveland, which is obviously a difficult feat, considering the Cavs were 39-2 at home during the regular season.
Like in the West, the matchups by position in this series are interesting, and will ultimately tell the tale I believe. Rafer Alston has done an admirable job since taking over the point guard spot for Jameer Nelson at the All Star break, but I'd give the nod to Mo Williams heads up. Williams is a superior scorer and won't be relied on to run the offense as much as Alston does. Delonte West should be able to handle J.J. Redick with relative ease as well, and while Redick did a solid job on Ray Allen against Boston, West is tough to stop from getting to the basket. In the front court, Ilgauskas and Varejao have played well, but they will have their hands full with Dwight Howard and Rashard Lewis. It'll be interesting to see how Cleveland decided to defend the pair, as Varejao has the energy to go at Howard and is a good defender, but he could find himself in foul trouble pretty easily as well. Howard is far more atheletic than Ilgauskas, but Z has size on his side too. As for Lewis, he likes to shoot from the outside, so one of those guys will have to step out on him, and I don't see Ilgauskas being able to do so.
Then of course there is the small forward matchup. Hedo Turkoglu was the star for Orlando in Game 7 against Boston. He shot the ball very well and was also able to create going to the basket and get to the foul line. That might be a little harder to do against LeBron James however. James is bigger, stronger, and more physical than anybody Hedo has faced so far in the playoffs. For all James talents, his defense sometimes gets underestimated, but look for him to shut down Turkoglu in this series. On the flip side, while Hedo is 6'10", that's about the only advantage he has in trying to guard James. LeBron is decidedly quicker and stronger and should be able to create shots for himself with relative ease. James is at his best going to the basket and there are few in the league that can slow him down. As long as he doesn't try to settle for being a jump shooter, he's going to get his.Ultimately, while Lewis and Howard might create some problems for Cleveland and at least make the series interesting, the Cavaliers backcourt, along with LeBron will prove too much for the Magic to handle. I can see Orlando stealing 2 games in this series, but not much more than that. I believe this Cavs team is one of destiny, and it's not going to end in the East Finals.
Cleveland in 6 games.
NHL Conference Finals
5/16/2009 | Posted by
Devin
While working out at the gym, a person needs to be in the right mindset. It’s the reason why so many people (including myself) create specific playlists on their MP3 player for the gym. If you’re not in the proper mindset, everything is thrown off. So imagine me working out at the gym on 
Wednesday night. I am resting in between sets of triceps dips and walk over to a treadmill with a television screen built in to check the score of the Pittsburgh/Washington game. I see there is over 17 minutes left in the second period and…it’s 4-0. Really? Is this a misprint? Did Washington really lie down and die in season ending loss to Pittsburgh? Unbelievable. Needless to say, it took me a while to get focused on the gym again.
I’ve had some more time to digest what went down in round two and here are some thoughts:
- Kudos to Pittsburgh for overcoming the 2-0 hole and winning the series.
- Picking Vancouver was a very un-wise move.
- Roberto Luongo might be the best goalie of our generation to never win a Cup unless he pulls a Hasek and heads for a winning team. Hey that reminds me, guess who is heading into a contract year next season? Guess who has a starting goalie who makes less than two million per season and by the end of next season will be ready for retirement/back-up role? If you guessed Roberto Luongo and the Detroit Red Wings, you’re absolutely correct. Don’t say I didn’t warn you.
- It’s been a while since I’ve been torn between two teams quite like I was in the Boston/Carolina series. I dislike both teams so picking a team to root for was a lose/lose situation. When Carolina held a 3-1 series lead I was somewhat happy because it looked like Boston was going down in flames. I wasn’t exactly jumping at the thought of Boston winning because quite frankly, the city has had enough winning for the time being. Boston also has the most annoying announcers in the game. I’d rather listen to a Chinese broadcast of a Bruins game then the gang from NESN. But then I realized at the expense of the Bruins, the Hurricanes would be advancing to the Eastern Conference Finals. All the NASCAR loving, non-hockey following fans known as the “Caniacs” would be in our lives for at least another two weeks. Combine that with the fact that I have to root for whoever was facing Pittsburgh in the next round and one could easily say I wasn’t looking forward to Game 7 of this series. And afterwards…I’m absolutely dreading the Eastern Conference Finals.
- I don’t get Anaheim. This isn’t the first time they have done this in the playoffs. It’s been re-hashed a million times so I won’t discuss it much further; just know that I don’t get this franchise at all. But seriously, if someone told me that Emilio Estevez was hired to be their new coach and Chris Pronger yelled out "Knucklepuck!" every time he shot, I wouldn't be surprised at all.
- I’m still jealous of Detroit. Even in the salary cap era, they just keep chugging along. If I were the GM of a team out of the playoffs, I’d be taking notes right now. (Hint, hint)
- I also have to give credit to the Chicago Blackhawks. I thought they were good enough for the second round but I definitely underestimated them. But just a note to all the Sabres fans up in arms right now, the ‘Hawks didn’t make it this far simply because of Brian Campbell. That’s a pretty ridiculous thought.
- Washington is never going to win a Stanley Cup with their current structure. Ever. Alexander Ovechkin is easily the most dynamic player in the game right now but he can’t do it all on his own. I know the Caps have several other good players like Niklas Backstrom, Mike Green and Alexander Semin, but it isn’t good enough. The reason Sidney Crosby and the Pens won this series is because of his supporting cast. Players like Malkin, Guerrin and Kunitz. Ovechkin has been putting the Caps on his back since he was drafted and while it’s good enough to win their division; it won’t result in a Stanley Cup anytime soon. The goaltending is also suspect. Granted Jose Theodore didn’t play in the series until it was over, the fact that Washington gave him the big deal and built around him was a huge mistake. Maybe Varlamov will turn out to be a franchise goaltender, but it’s far too early to figure that out.
- On a similar note, the Bruins aren’t winning a Cup anytime soon with Tim Thomas between the pipes. I’ve been beating this drum for a good part of the season and finally it’s somewhat justified. Hey, give the guy the Vezina, that’s great. But he isn’t what most are making him out to be. He makes some nice saves but he can't be counted on for the long haul. The guy didn’t even play in 60 regular season games for Boston this season and the backup put up similar numbers when he played. That tells me it’s the system more than the goalie. And for the record, if Tim Thomas starts for Team USA in the 2010 Olympics there should be a riot. In fact, I might be at the front of the pack for that one.
- The people who run the NHL (Gary Bettman) are going to be the downfall of this league. I personally think the NHL could easily compete on the level of the NBA, but not with Gary Bettman running things. I could go on and on about retraction or moving teams to a better market (move Phoenix already!) but I'll spare everyone from that. Just know that if I were running the league, four teams would immediately be contracted and several others would be put on notice.
But no, this rant is more directed towards the television coverage. When watching the NBA playoffs, there is a game on TNT, ESPN or ABC, followed the second half of the double-header. Makes sense. With the NHL, they have multiple games starting at a similar time so they overlap, and you can only see one of those games unless you've paid for NHL Center Ice. Granted I have Center Ice so this issue doesn't affect me, but I feel for those fans who are trying to get into the sport. How can two Game 7's be shown at the same time?? How is that good for the sport??? How many more question marks will I have to use to get my point across??????? Seriously, this is a prime example of bad business. Game 7's are a marquee match-up in any sport. It's what you want to showcase. The fact that the NHL ignores this defies logic. Oh yeah, and the one game that is on is still burried on Versus where some cable customers don't even get that without paying an extra fee. I can't get over this. It makes me question myself sometimes as a fan of the NHL.
Now that I’m done ranting, here are the standings halfway through our prediction contest.
Chuck: (Chicago in 6, Pittsburgh in 7, Detroit) 60 points total
Devin: (Pittsburgh in 7, Detroit) 40 points total
Scott: (Pittsburgh, Detroit) 40 points total
Brian: (Detroit) 25 points total
(Looks like Scott’s two year reign is officially over)
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Detroit Red Wings (2) vs Chicago Blackhawks (4)
This is going to be a great series. The Red Wings are practically limping out of their series with Anaheim after going the full seven, while Chicago ousted Vancouver in six and has been getting some much needed rest. Both teams are very familiar with each other and after facing off in the 2009 Winter Classic, they now get a crack at each other for a trip to the Stanley Cup.
During the 2008-09 regular season the Wings and Hawks met a total of six times. Detroit won four out of six games, although two of them went to a shoot-out. Something to note however, the Blackhawks won the last two meetings. I don’t mean to always talk about Buffalo but this reminds me of the 2005-06 season when Buffalo fell in the conference finals to Carolina. That entire season Ottawa dominated the Sabres in division play. But right near the end of the season the Sabres beat the Senators and it seemed to give them a new level of confidence. When they faced each other in the playoffs the Sabres did away with the Senators in five games. It was almost like that end of the season game was a turning point for the underdog Sabres. I figured it was something to note since the Blackhawks were currently 0-2-2 against Detroit this season before taking the final two games.
If I were a Red Wings fan I’d still be super nervous about having Chris Osgood in net. I know the guy has proven his worth, but there is something about him that gives me that uneasy feeling. If this series comes down to goaltending as the deciding factor, I’d have to give the edge to Chicago. Luckily for Detroit, I don’t think it will simply come down to goaltending.
I’ve been riding Detroit since the playoffs started and I really see no reason for me to change that pick now. They are the better team and more experienced when it comes down to these big games. It’s for that reason that I’m sticking with the Red Wings to win the Western Conference.
My Pick: Detroit in 6
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Pittsburgh Penguins (4) vs Carolina Hurricanes (6)
Wow. I honestly can’t even think about this series right now. What are the odds that two of my most disliked franchises are facing off in the playoffs and no matter what, one of them has a shot at the Stanley Cup. I’ve been trying to think of the equivalent of this in other sports and I had the hardest time coming up with it. I guess the closest would be the Steelers and Dolphins facing each other in the AFC Championship. Although I don’t think even that correctly depicts how upsetting this series is. In a non-sports comparison, this series is like a 24 hour root canal or even worse, having to attend a Fall Out Boy concert.
My Pick: (gritting teeth as much as possible…putting head down in shame…fighting off violent thoughts…) Carolina in 7
NHL Conference Finals Preview and Predictions
5/15/2009 | Posted by
Scott Lunn
Western Conference Finals:(2) Detroit Red Wings vs. (4) Chicago Blackhawks
The West is going to be determined by a battle of Original 6 teams that both have long and storied histories in the NHL. Detroit has 11 Stanley Cups to their credit and they are also the defending champions. They come into this matchup after defeating the Anaheim Ducks in a 7 game series, which saw a bit of a back and forth struggle as the Wings took games 1, 4, 5, and 7. 5 of the 7 games were decided by just one goal, including a 3 OT thriller that Anaheim took in the 2nd game of the series. Detroit was certainly tested at a much higher level in this series than they were in the 1st round against Columbus who was dispatched in a hurry. Chris Osgood was the question mark entering the post season for Detroit, but he's proven why he has multiple Cup wins under his belt.
Thus far, Osgood has allowed just 2.06 goals per game and has a save percentage of .921. While Johan Hiller was able to shut down the mighty Detroit offense in a few games, they still managed to average just over 3 goals per game for the series. Johan Franzen has lead the way offensively for Detroit thus far with 8 goals in the postseason and "The Mule" also has 7 assists to give him a team leading 15 points. Henrik Zetterburg is right behind him however with 14 points. Add in the best defensemen in the league in Nick Lidstrom who has contributed 11 points and a team leading 26+ minutes per game in ice time and you can see how it's tough to slow down the Detroit Offense. It will be Osgood who is once again the key for the Red Wings in the Western Conference Finals however, as he faces a Chicago team who has dynamite in the offensive department.
Chicago finished 2nd in their division to Detroit and while extremely young and inexperienced, has proven they belong in this postseason. Offensive firepower has definitely been the name of the game for the Blackhawks as they've taken out both Calgary and Vancouver in 6 games each, dashing any chances for a Western Canada Cup celebration. Many, myself included, expected Roberto Luongo to shut down Chicago and send them to the golf course, but instead, the youthful Blackhawk squad lit Luongo up like the 4th of July. They scored just under 4 goals per game in the series, including 6 in game 2 and 7 in game 4.
Their progress in this postseason marks a resurgence for the Chicago Blackhawks, who have finally broken out of one of the darkest periods in the team's history. A team who dominated their division throughout the 70s, Chicago had made the playoffs for an incredible 28 straight years until 1998. Since that time, other than a quick first round exit in 2002, the Blackhawks have been mired in obscurity. Sadly, it took the death of long time owner Bill Wirtz in 2007 to change around the fortunes of the team. Rocky Wirtz, son of Bill, took over the team and immediately began changing much of how things were ran. The Blackhawks were put back on a local TV station, they changed up the front office and made great draft picks along with some splashes via free agency and trades.
It's worked out well for the team as they've built a very solid team, which is still very young and could have quite an amazing run in front of them. At this point, anything the Blackhawks accomplish this year is just icing on the cake, but I'm sure it wouldn't hurt their feelings to have a chance at their first Stanley Cup since 1961, the longest current drought in the NHL. If they are to get that opportunity, it will likely be the offense that has to continue to carry them. Goaltender Nikolai Khabibulin hasn't been exactly stellar so far in the playoffs, with a 2.76 GAA and a .896 save percentage. The scoring has come from everywhere though, as 4 Chicago players have double digit points so far, and 4 more have chimed in with 9 in the playoffs. Martin Havlat leads the way at 13 points, and Patrick Kane is right behind him with 12, including a team leading 8 goals.
These teams are certainly familiar with one another, as they are both members of the Central Division. Chicago won both games of a home and home series to finish the season, but dropped the other 4 matchups against Detroit on the season. The first 2 of those games were decided in a shootout however. The Red Wings 2 regulation wins were also a part of a home and home, the 2nd of which was the New Year's Day Winter Classic played at Wrigley Field in Chicago. The best bet for Chicago is going to be to try and win in shootouts, scoring as much as possible against Detroit. I don't think their defense or goaltending is built to try and shut down the Red Wings attack and trying to do so might prove futile. Detroit has the ability to crack down a little more defensively when they need to, but that will be quite the challenge as well considering what Chicago has proven themselves capable of. At any rate, suffice it to say I expect some high scoring games throughout this series.In the end, one of the major keys could be penalties, as Chicago can not afford to allow Detroit's Power Play unit to go to work, they've been amongst the top in the league all year long and have too many weapons to hope to stop if the Blackhawks continuously find themselves in the box. I'm a big fan of how Chicago has gone about rebuilding their franchise and I think they will be the team to deal with over the next few years, but I'm afraid this is the end of the line this season. Detroit will head to yet another Stanley Cup Final in my opinion.
Detroit in 6 Games
Eastern Conference Finals:
(4) Pittsburgh Penguins vs. (6) Carolina Hurricanes
I suppose I have to talk about this series too, though it pains me to do so. I think it's been made abundantly clear by now that I do not like either of these teams at all. I guess that makes it easier to talk about this series objectively however since I have no real bias from one to the other, as I hate them both. Pittsburgh looks to make a return trip to the Stanley Cup Finals after last year's quick dismissal by Detroit, while Carolina, back in the playoffs for the first time since winning the Cup in 2006, looks to keep it's amazing string of come from behind victories going.
The Penguins head in to the conference finals after taking out the Washington Capitals in a 7 game battle which saw 5 of the games decided by a single goal, including 3 overtime games. In game 7 however, the team from Pittsburgh would not be denied as they stomped the Caps, 7-2. Sidney Crosby earned at least some of his reputation in the series as he put up 8 goals and 5 assists through the 7 games. Crosby has 21 points to lead all players in the postseason thus far, and Evgeni Malkin is right behind him with 19. The two have also combined for 17 points on the powerplay so far in the playoffs, with a combined 9 goals. Marc-Andre Fleury has been solid, but not spectacular so far with a 2.72 GAA and a .901 save percentage. The Pens will need him to step up his game against Carolina in order to move on.
Carolina must have went to magician's school sometime in the last year as they have managed to pull one rabbit out of a hat right after another. They also seem to have a supply of horseshoes stuck somewhere, but I'll stop short of actually saying where I think they might be stashing them. For the second straight series, Carolina managed to win a 7th game on the road to knock off a higher seed, ousting Boston with just over a minute left to go in overtime. This series was much unlike the Pittsburgh/Washington one in the fact that both teams essentially traded easy victories for the most part, excluding Game 7 of course, as well as Game 3, which Carolina also won in OT. Just days after sucker punching Boston Defensemen Aaron Ward in the eye, Scott Walker became the hero for the Hurricanes as he scored the game winner in Game 7. As Devin mentioned to me, I think it would have been fitting if Ward decked Walker in the post series handshake line for good measure.
The key to Carolina's success lies with goalie Cam Ward. A former Conn Smythe winner, he has a tendency to show up big in big games. Thus far in the playoffs, he has allowed 2.22 goals per game and has a save percentage of .927. Carolina does not have the firepower that the other 3 remaining playoff teams can muster and instead relies on Ward to keep the game close while they manage to score goals at clutch times. Eric Staal and Jussi Jokinen have provided the majority of the Hurricanes scoring with 13 and 10 points respectively. Staal has scored 9 goals thus far, while Jokinen has added 6. The Canes are only averaging 2.37 goals a game, and they figure to need more than that to keep up with Pittsburgh.
The obvious question that presents itself when looking at this series is who is going to stop Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. The answer for Carolina is that Cam Ward is the only one with any chance, and that's probably too much to put on him. The Hurricanes lack any real shut down defenders who will have the ability to deal with those two, and they also don't have the offense to keep up with them. Pittsburgh has been quite successful on the power play so far in the playoffs as well, largely due to those same two guys, however Carolina has a fantastic penalty kill and tends to stay out of the box for the most part to begin with.Conversely, Carolina has scored only 5 times on the power play so far in the playoffs and that won't get them too far. At the end of the day, Carolina's luck has to run out at some point and I think this is the time. Pittsburgh just has far more skill on the ice than Carolina at any given point in time and the Hurricanes best player is going to get bombarded with pucks flying at him. The Penguins have a tendency for let downs here and there, and Carolina has proved themselves to be gritty and determined... nice compliments to luck, so the series will stay competitive, but ultimately the skill prevails.
Pittsburgh in 7 games.
NBA Playoffs Picks: Round 2: Eastern Conference
5/04/2009 | Posted by
Scott Lunn
Just an update before we get to the picks for the Eastern Conference. With the first round wrapping up yesterday, we finally have the tally of points for the first round predictions between Scott and me.
Devin: (Cleveland in 4, Boston in 7, Orlando, Lakers, Denver and Dallas) = 40 Points
Scott: (Cleveland, Boston, Orlando in 6, Lakers and Dallas) = 30 Points
I’m not sure what to make of this. I don’t watch much NBA so I guess we could argue that it’s somewhat more predictable than other sports. How else can you explain that I picked 6/8 series correctly, missed one series by a single game (ATL/MIA) and picked the winners of two and missed by a game (Lakers/Mavericks).
On a similar note, Scott got 5/8 series correct. So basically we both did better with our NBA picks than we did with the NHL picks. I have no way of explaining this. I watch a TON of hockey and I know Scott does. Is it possible that we don’t know the game as well as we think? Or is it possible that we over thought our first round picks for the NHL? Or that the NBA is just easier? I’m willing to listen to suggestions.
And with that, here are my round two winners for the Eastern Conference…
(1) Cleveland Cavaliers vs (4) Atlanta Hawks
Uh oh, someone needs to wake Cleveland up and remind them that they have three more series to go before the season is actually over. I’m no expert, nor have I done an ounce of research on this, but the Cavs layoff has to be close to a record.
In the first round, Cleveland disposed of Detroit like they were playing the games on Xbox 360 and the level was set to beginner. This came as a surprise to nobody. Even the Pistons’ players weren’t surprised by this at all. Then again, Detroit is pretty much tanking it until the summer of 2010 when they hope to splurge on the free agent buffet and once again be competitive.
Atlanta had a tougher time in the first with their series going the full seven games. I personally picked Miami in seven games so I was close, but missed out completely. I really thought D-Wade had enough to carry Miami for a series or two, but I guess Atlanta just has a better overall team. Good for them. I hope they enjoyed it because their season is about to end.
My Pick: Cleveland in 6
(2) Boston Celtics vs (3) Orlando Magic
This goes without saying, but the Celtics just finished off the best first round playoff series ever. Honestly, when I’m tuning in for games and watching them, you know it has to be good. I’m not going to rehash much more about that series right now because chances are A) you already watched it B) you don’t care and didn’t watch it or C) you have seen/visited ESPN in the last few days and had it slammed in your face.
The Magic disposed of Philly in six games and I’m not sure what to make of that. I definitely thought they were much better than Philly, so I’m a little surprised that the series even went for six games. The only thing I really know about this series was the suspension of Dwight Howard, which didn’t seem to affect Orlando one single bit.
I’m picking Orlando to win this series for a few reasons.
1. Boston doesn’t have anybody to really match up with Howard
2. Boston has to be tired. It’s a long season, they are somewhat old, and just went through the longest seven game series that I can remember.
My Pick: Orlando in 7
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-- Written by Scott Lunn --
(1) Cleveland Cavaliers vs. (4) Atlanta Hawks
Cleveland absolutely breezed through their series with Detroit, proving that the Pistons are do for some major overhauling at this point and are no longer the team that sat amongst the top of the East for the past several years. The biggest concern for the Cavaliers at this point has to be the 8 days in between games they will face before their series starts on Tuesday. I'd expect them to start off a little slow, but it won't take them long to find their legs again.
Obviously LeBron James leads this team in every way imaginable, but he has a lot more support now than in years past. Mo Williams has capably taken over at the point guard spot and adds a legit second punch in the scoring column, which eases some of James' burden. Additionally, Delonte West, Anderson Varejao, and Big Z all play their roles very well and for good measure throw in veterans Ben Wallace and Joe Smith off the bench, and there's little doubt why Cleveland is expected to be contending for the title in June.
Atlanta comes in fresh off knocking out Miami yesterday in a very bizarre series where not a single game was decided by single digits. The Hawks are talented, but lacked consistency in the 1st round, and that will be something they simply can't afford against Cleveland.
I'm trying to find a way that Atlanta can make this series competitive, but I just don't see it. They don't really match up all that well at any position with Cleveland, least of all at the small forward slot. I would think the Hawks would have to put somebody other than Maurice Evans on LeBron James defensively, but it's really not going to matter in the end.
One thing you can expect from this series is some highlight reel dunks and blocks from LeBron and Josh Smith, both those guys can jump out of a building. In the end, Cleveland has the better starters, the deeper bench, and home court advantage... did I mention they were 40-2 at home this season? I'd say this series might be a touch closer than the Cavs/Pistons, but not much really.
Cleveland in 5
(2) Boston Celtics vs. (3) Orlando Magic
This series is infinitely harder to pick in my opinion. Boston had absolutely all they could handle with Chicago in the first round, and while I got sick of the hype, it's hard to deny what a great series that was. I can't recall the last time I saw two teams so evenly matched do battle in a series like that. The problem for Boston is that they've essentially played 8 games already at this point.
The series with the Bulls pointed out that Boston is clearly a different team without Kevin Garnett in the picture and it's going to cause them to struggle in this postseason. Rajon Rondo has been spectacular thus far and he's had to be too. Paul Pierce has not played up to his ability so far and Ray Allen was hit or miss throughout the series.
Orlando looked like a dominant team for much of the season, but looked surprisingly human in their first round series with Philadelphia. While they managed to take the series in 6, it wasn't the easiest set of games for them by any stretch of the imagination. Orlando's biggest issue seems to be that they are far too willing to rely on shooting jumpers to get their points. They are a true "Live by the 3, die by the 3" team and that usually doesn't work out for the best in the postseason.
They didn't shoot the 3 particularly well against the 76ers, but still made it out alive... they'll have to be better against Boston without question. When Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis are on from the outside, this team becomes a nightmare to handle for the opposition, but if they aren't, the focus quickly moves to Dwight Howard.
Howard should be the key to this series. He is probably the best big man in the game today, but still lacks the consistency needed to be a truly dominant center. He has games where he drops 30 points and 20+ rebounds on you, and then he'll turn around the next night and only give you 14 points. Boston's glaring weakness aginst Chicago was in their front line. Without Garnett, Kendrick Perkins and Glen Davis are really all they have, because Mikki Moore and Brian Scalabrine aren't intimidating anyone.
The Magic would be wise to pound the ball into Howard and let him go to work because he is far more talented than anything Boston can counter with. If he can get Perkins or Davis in foul trouble, the Celtics will be in for a world of hurt. On the other side of things, Rafer Alston and a combination of J.J. Redick and Mikael Pietrus are going to have their hands full with Rando and Allen. The loss of Courtney Lee is going to hurt Orlando without a doubt. He's a quiet rookie you don't hear much about, but he's a solid player and especially on the defensive end. If he ends up being done for the postseason, it could be the turning point Boston needs in this series.
In the end, this series is going to be about Orlando's game plan... will Stan Van Gundy continue to have his team bomb away from the outside and risk the series on the hotness of their shooting, or will he feed the monster inside and let Howard rip up Boston's depleted front line? This should be a good battle, but I'm banking on Boston's tired legs and weak frontcourt giving out first.
Orlando in 6
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NHL Playoffs: 1st Round Predictions
4/13/2009 | Posted by
Scott Lunn
As mentioned previously here, both Devin and myself will be making our predictions round by round for both the NHL and NBA playoffs. We encourage you to join in, so either email one of us your picks, or comment on one of our posts with your picks before the 1st round gets started. Devin will have his picks posted tomorrow, but the series begin on Wednesday, so make sure you get your picks to us before then. Scoring is pretty simple, you get 5 points for picking the correct series winner and a bonus 5 points if you get the number of games correct as well. Results will be posted as we progress through each round. So without any further ado, here are my first round picks.Eastern Conference:
1. Boston vs. 8. Montreal
These two teams are very familiar with one another and history suggests this matchup will be closer than it likely ought to be. The main difference for me is that Tim Thomas has had a Vezina like campaign this season for Boston while Carey Price has been shaky at best. Boston is also a much more physical team which usually wins out come playoff time. Montreal has been a very up and down team all year long and this series depends entirely on which Canadiens unit shows up. I think they'll play well enough to present a challenge, but ultimately not well enough to advance. I'll take the Bruins in 6, but they should at least be tested in the 1st round.
Bruins in 6 games
2. Washington vs. 7. NY Rangers
I expect this series to go the distance as this is a pure offense vs. defense battle. The Caps were near the leaders in scoring this season, while the Rangers are a very defensive minded team. The goalie matchup, which is always a big deal in the postseason is leaning in the favor of the Rangers with Henrik Lundqvist. Jose Theodore remains a bit of a question mark for the Capitals, but luckily this Ovechkin guy is pretty good. Playoff experience is also very heavily in New York's favor, but ultimately their inability to score is going to hurt them. Washington takes this one in 7 games and I expect at least one horribly stupid antic from Sean Avery and at least one incredible game from Ovechkin.
Caps in 7 games
3. New Jersey vs. 6. Carolina
This series seems to have the most likelihood for an upset in the East, as Carolina has been the hottest team in the league down the stretch. The Hurricanes have a fair amount of fire power offensively and the return of Erik Cole at the trade deadline has really given them a spark. Add to that Cam Ward's very high level of play as of late, Vezina like in fact, and the Canes are a tough task for the Devils in the first round. I'm picking against them for two reasons though really... 1. I can't stand picking against Martin Brodeur in a close matchup, he's just a machine, and with the bolstered offense in NJ this season, lead by Zach Parise, Brodeur could make the difference. 2. I think we all know at this point I don't much care for the Hurricanes and more particularly their fans. If they lose in the first round, the bandwagon empties in a hurry and I don't have to hear about them every where I turn for a long while. Devils in 6, at least I hope.
Devils in 6 games
4. Pittsburgh vs. 5. Philadelphia
Well, this was going to be my upset pick (though not much of one) in the East, until Philly couldn't handle their business yesterday and lost the home ice advantage in this series. This should be a high scoring series if nothing else, as both teams are definitely offensively based. Philly is terrific on the power play, but not so much the rest of the time, so if Pittsburgh can stay out of the penalty box, it'll go a long way for their cause. Marty Biron is a good goalie in this league, but he seems to have trouble playing at a high level for more than a few games at a time, and that's a problem this time of year. At the end of the day, Pittsburgh has more firepower with Crosby, Malkin, and company, and while this may not be the same team that made the Cup Finals last year, they're going to get at least one step closer than Philly this year. Penguins win this one in 6 games.
Penguins in 6 games
Western Conference:
1. San Jose vs. 8. Anaheim
While these two teams don't have the traditions of Boston and Montreal, the 1/8 matchup in the West is equally intriguing. Most probably haven't noticed, but these two California teams have been amongst the best in the West for several years now. Only one of them has translated that success in the postseason however. The Sharks come in as President's Trophy winners with the best record in the league, but they have struggled in the playoffs the past few years. The Ducks on the other hand, come in much like Carolina in the East, as one of the hottest teams in the league as of late. Anaheim has the core group of veterans from their Cup winning team still in tact and will be a handful for San Jose. I think the outcome of this series lies directly on the shoulders of Sharks goaltender Evgeni Nabokov and I'll take the Sharks in 7... but I won't be the least bit surprised to see Anaheim pull off the upset.
Sharks in 7
2. Detroit vs. 7. Columbus
Detroit stumbled into the playoffs, not doing well at all down the stretch. That doesn't much matter though, they've got loads of playoff experience on their roster and they're the defending Cup winners. Columbus on the other hand is making their postseason debut, and even their best players don't really have the playoff experience to rely on either. Rookie goaltender Steve Mason has been impressive to say the least this year, but this is a completely different environment now and the Red Wings fire power might have him sweating bullets. The Red Wings have question marks in net with Chris Osgood and Ty Conklin as neither have been overly consistent this year, but both are playoff tested and proven, and either will be good enough to get by the Blue Jackets. Detroit takes this series in 5 games at most.
Red Wings in 5
3. Vancouver vs. 6. St. Louis
This series is a difficult one to pick for several reasons. First, I'll admit to not seeing hardly anything from either of these teams throughout the year. Second, they both come in absolutely on fire through the late part of the season. Neither of these teams has any playoff experience to speak of really, with Vancouver making the lone playoff appearance between the two since the lockout season. St. Louis has risen up from being one of the worst teams in the league to in the middle of the playoffs now and they do so despite having an injury riddled season. Vancouver's Roberto Luongo is one of the best goaltenders in the league and the logic here should be to go with him as the deciding factor. For some reason though, my instincts tell me to take the Blues in this series, so that's what I'm doing... St. Louis in 6 games.
Blues in 6
4. Chicago vs. 5. Calgary
Calgary kind of fell apart down the stretch and handed the division over to Vancouver, though to be fare, injuries had something to do with that. The Flames are banged up, especially amongst their defensemen. Trade deadline pickup Ollie Jokinen will finally get to see some playoff action and if he can rekindle (yes, that's a bad Flames pun right there!) the spark he brought initially, it'll go a long way towards Calgary advancing. The Blackhawks on the other hand are one of the youngest teams in the league and have little playoff experience. It'll be interesting to see how Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews handle the increased spotlight of the playoffs. I see Kiprusoff outplaying Khabibulin in this series and it ultimately making the difference. The Blackhawks are going to have plenty of future opportunities with their youth, but this isn't their year. Honestly, my main reason for picking the Flames is because I haven't picked a single Canadian team to advance so far, and that simply wouldn't be good business for the NHL. Calgary moves on in 7 games.
Flames in 7 games
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