Showing posts with label Finals. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Finals. Show all posts

NBA Finals: Preview and Prediction

This just in! The Orlando Magic can play some basketball... I'm sure most people have them written off already in the Finals against the mighty Kobe and the Lakers, but I won't be one of them. See, I already made that mistake once when they played the Cleveland LeBrons. I was under the silly impression that things had changed in the Mistake by the Lake (I use that term in jest, I'm sure Cleveland is a fine city, and they certainly get my sympathy as a Buffalo sports fan), but that just wasn't the case. When it came down to crunch time, LeBron was left standing on his own and he simply didn't have enough answers.

See, at the beginning of the year, I told my younger brother who is a big time Cavs fan, mostly due to James of course, that Mo Williams wasn't the difference maker the media was trying to make him out to be. Throughout the regular season, I prepared to eat crow as it seemed that Williams really was a solid contributor and obviously made the Cavs a better team, as their NBA best record would attest to. The series with Orlando showed the truth however. When Cleveland desperately needed some help to show up for LeBron, nobody stood up. James put up out of this world numbers, and while that might work on a nightly basis against a different team in a different city, a 7 game series will exploit all the fatal flaws. But enough about that, this isn't about Cleveland anymore, because in the ever wise words of TNT's Kenny Smith and Charles Barkley, the Cavaliers have "Gone Fishin'".

Orlando proved what they are capable of and that beating Boston wasn't a mistake. Though I will agree with Devin, a healthy Garnett makes that series completely different. The Magic play team basketball and don't rely on any one person to carry the load at all times. They possess a very rare ability to make opponents pay in a variety of ways. They are deadly when they are hitting their 3's, something they did all series long against Cleveland. How do they get those wide open looks you ask? Pound the rock inside to the best center in the NBA. Dwight Howard's performance in Game 6 of the Conference Finals was one of the best I've ever seen from him, and keep in mind this is a 23 year old kid we're talking about. I will take a second to add that he has something else going for him that most NBA players don't either. He's a true devout Christian, which means he's not out there drinking, smoking, screwing, etc all the time. His body will thank him for that down the road and it could help him have a long and fruitful career.

Well, since it takes two teams to have a championship series, I'd be remiss if I didn't speak about the Lakers as well. Los Angeles frustrates me much of the time because they really pick and choose when they feel like showing up to play, as was witnessed early in the playoffs. Denver was a much better team than I gave them credit for, but the Lakers made it clear that when they put forth a true effort, nobody in the West could touch them. Game 6 in particular was just embarassing as the Lakers throttled the Nuggets and sent them packing. There is no doubt that Kobe is probably the best pure scorer in the NBA right now, and he shows it from time to time. The difference between him and LeBron is that the Lakers don't really need him to play that way. In fact, I think they are at their best when Bryant is more of a facilitator for others. If he scores 25-30 and has 10 assists, they're better off than the nights he drops 40+ and takes 35 shots.

Every time I think Bryant learns this lesson however, we see him revert and just jack up shots left and right. I think this is one of the reasons I've never been much of a fan. I won't deny his abilities in the least, but I think he has some very selfish tendencies and sometimes cares more about his own stat line than the success of his team. So unlike Devin, I will be clearly siding with Orlando in this series. Those who know me well, know that a large portion of the reason I've never been huge on the NBA is the lack of team ball that is played and the focus on individuals all the time. Orlando is one of the few examples where the team seems to come first.

This series is going to be an interesting one and to me, one factor will play the largest role in determining the outcome. It's all about the matchups. Cleveland couldn't figure them out at all, we'll see if the Lakers fair better. Do you try and shut down Howard in the middle and rely on hoping that the Magic don't make three point shots all night long? Do you deal with Howard owning the paint in trade for shutting down the outside shot? On the flip side, how are the Magic going to shut down Kobe Bryant? Do they let him go like they did LeBron and trust that nobody else will be able to help him and that he can't win it by himself? These questions will be the key to the series, and ultimately their answers rest in the hands of the coaches. That's one area where Orlando is at a decided disadvantage. Stan Van Gundy is a solid coach, even if listening to him on the sidelines makes me want to stuff large wads of cotton in my ears. However, he is not Phil Jackson. Sure Jackson has had the luxury of having a few of the most talented players in history on his side of things, but he doesn't own 9 rings because of that alone. Look for Jackson to make the adjustments necessary to win the matchup game.

Personally, if I were the Lakers, my first concern would be trying to eliminate the wide open 3's that Orlando is so good at getting. I'd take my chances with Dwight Howard, because as much as I enjoy watching him and as talented as I think he is, he has this very frustrating trend of not showing up from time to time. For every 35 point, 22 rebound game, there seems to be one of those 14 points and 13 rebound performances right around the corner. The Lakers have Andrew Bynum, Pau Gasol, and Lamar Odom to throw at Howard, none of whom can truly guard him when he plays as he is capable of, but I'd keep sending him to the foul line as much as possible. He's stepped up his free throw shooting as of late, but it's still his biggest weakness.

Conversely, I'd expect Orlando to throw some combination of Courtney Lee and Mickael Pietrus at Bryant. They're both good defenders and they might slow him down slightly, but there is no real use in thinking anybody is going to actually stop him. That is the only position I'd be really concerned about for Orlando though. I think they match up well defensively with the rest of the Lakers regulars. Though Trevor Ariza might be a little too athletic for Orlando's small forwards to handle. Another note of interest is the expected return of Orlando's point guard Jameer Nelson. I'm a little torn on this topic as the guy was an all star player before being lost to injury, but I'm a big believer of not messing with a team's chemistry at this time of year. Nelson would likely only play limited minutes coming off the bench at any rate, but he clearly wouldn't be in the physical condition needed for NBA Finals basketball. Point guard is the weakest spot for the Lakers however, and if the Magic can use Nelson along with Rafer Alston to exploit that and pick up some extra scoring there, it'll go a long ways towards the Magic's chances at their first NBA title.

Much like with the Stanley Cup Finals, my heart and head are torn in making a prediction with this series. I'd love for Orlando to win and send Kobe home with another frustrating loss and still no trophy sans Shaq, however, I think the Lakers are the more skilled and experienced team in this situation. As Devin mentioned in his article, the Lakers took care of business and made it clear that they hadn't reached their goal yet, while the Magic just looked like kids in a candy shop to even make the NBA Finals. That says a lot to me. I went with my head in the NHL, though it seems as though my heart might win out... I think I'll try the reverse curse practice here and hope it works as well.

Los Angeles in 6 games.

NHL Stanley Cup Finals: Preview and Predictions

After some rather anti-climatic Conference Finals series, the battle for the best trophy in all of sports is finally upon us. Pittsburgh and Detroit both managed to advance without facing too much opposition and will now go at it once again in a rematch of last year's Finals. This is the first time in 25 years that two teams have made it to consecutive Stanley Cup Finals appearances, and Pittsburgh will be trying desperately to provide a different outcome this time around.

Pittsburgh looks to have hit their full stride at this point, cruising by Carolina in a 4 game sweep that wasn't ever really close. The Penguins outscored the Hurricanes by a 20-9 margin and only game 1 had any real drama to it. Marc-Andre Fleury was the only goaltender of the 4 in the Conference Finals to not have won a Stanley Cup already, but he may have out performed all his counterparts. So far in 17 games of the postseason, his GAA is 2.62 and he has a save percentage of .906. Not stellar numbers at first glance, but when you consider how well the Penguins score the puck, it's been plenty good enough to get them back in the Finals. The race for the playoff scoring title has turned into a 2 horse show, and both those horses belong to Pittsburgh. Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin each have 28 points so far in the playoffs and nobody else is really even close. Crosby's points have come on 14 goals and 14 assists, while Malkin has 12 goals and 16 assists thus far. Pittsburgh's one downfall though might be that after those two, the scoring falls off dramatically. If Detroit can find a way to even slow those guys down, it might be enough to help them hoist yet another Cup.

Last year, the Penguins made it to the finals as a young, fairly inexperienced team. This year however, they're back and they know what to expect. This group would love nothing more to win the first Cup for Pittsburgh since their only previous wins in 91 and 92. The Penguins looked overwhelmed in the first 2 games of last year's Final, and it ultimately cost them as they recovered a little too late. I wouldn't expect the same to happen this time around. As for Detroit, last year's victory was the team's 11th Stanley Cup and another one this year would put them at half of the mark of Montreal's ridiculous 24 Cups. The Red Wings have proven to be one of the best run organizations in sports for years now and yet another Finals appearance just further proves that.

Detroit faced a very young Chicago team in the Western Conference Finals and didn't have too much of an issue getting past them, as they won the series in 5 games. The series was certainly closer than that in the East though, as 3 of the games were decided in overtime. 2 players top the list of scorers for Detroit as well, though they have a more balanced attack and have had a lot of secondary contributors. Johan Franzen has lead the way with 10 goals and 9 assists, while Henrik Zetterburg has chipped in with 9 of each. All playoffs long, people have pointed to Chris Osgood as the weak link of Detroit, and even I have been somewhat guilty of this. The fact is that it's just not the case though. Osgood comes into the Finals with a 2.06 GAA and a .925 save percentage, both of which are outstanding. Add to that the fact that Osgood has 3 Cup wins to his name, 2 of which he was the starter for, is 10th all time in NHL wins, and has a career playoff GAA of 2.11. Osgood has proven himself and deserves more credit than he gets.

Amongst the biggest keys heading into this series is the health of the Red Wings. 6 regular starters missed Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals for Detroit, yet they managed to walk away with the win. Andreas Lilja, Kris Draper, Tomas Kopecky, and Jonathan Ericsson were all out, but more notably, Nicklas Lidstrom and Pavel Datsyuk both missed games 4 and 5 of that series. Lidstrom is perennially the best defenseman in the league, and while he's supposedly going to be back in time for Game 1 tomorrow, whether or not he's at 100% will be a big factor. Datsyuk doesn't appear to be in as good of shape at this point, and while he hasn't provided his usual scoring power in these playoffs (7 points, with only 1 goal), many forget that he is very talented defensively as well. Having him at his best to help try and slow down Crosby and Malkin would be a very important factor for Detroit.

The Red Wings have been getting offense from other players however as Johan Franzen, Dan Cleary and Valtteri Filppula have all stepped up their scoring efforts. Still, contributions from Datsyuk if he comes back and Henrik Zetterburg would certainly go a long ways towards Detroit capturing yet another Stanley Cup. Pittsburgh will need some more scoring from it's support as well though, as relying almost completely on Crosby and Malkin might not continue to work at this point. Players like Bill Guerin, Jordan Staal, Chris Kunitz, and Ruslan Fedotenko need to provide more scoring in support of the Penguins Big Two.

Special teams is another big key factor when looking at this series. Both these teams are dynamite on the power play, but Detroit in particular. The Red Wings have scored 19 times in 74 opportunities this postseason, for a success rate of 25.7%. Pittsburgh has converted 16 of 83 opportunities, scoring 19.3% of the time. 10 of those 16 goals for Pittsburgh have come from the Crosby/Malkin duo however, while Detroit's are much more spread out across the team. On the flip side of things though is where the story might be told. The Penguins have allowed 10 goals on the penalty kill through 61 opposition chances, good for a 83.6% success rate on the kill. Not stellar, but when you compare it to Detroit's penalty killing effort, it looks pretty good. The Red Wings have allowed 15 goals in 57 opportunities so far in the playoffs, killing only 73.7% of their penalties. Detroit simply must be better or must stay out of the box, or Pittsburgh is going to make them pay dearly. While I wouldn't want to give up many PP chances for Detroit if I were Pittsburgh either, they have to feel at least a little more comfortable with their ability to kill off any penalties.

Yet another key to this series, and a storyline which I'm sure television will play up to death is that of the Red Wings' forward Marian Hossa. Hossa was with the Penguins last season and despite a very healthy contract offer after the season, he decided to bolt town, declaring that the Penguins were a one trick pony of sorts and he wanted to go play for a Cup contender. He signed with Detroit, and now he faces his former mates with the biggest prize on the line. Hossa has been solid, but not stellar for Detroit this postseason, chipping in with 6 goals and 6 assists thus far. The capability is still there however as he scored 40 goals along with 31 assists in the regular season for the team. Pittsburgh surely would like to make Hossa regret his decision and I can think of no better way than to beat his new team for Lord Stanley's Cup. It'll be interesting to see how Hossa reacts to the pressure in this series.

Ultimately, this series is a matchup of two teams with outstanding scoring abilities mixed in with some goalies playing at a very high level. It's pretty much what you'd expect from the last two teams standing. How the keys I mentioned above play out will likely end up determining who gets to parade around the ultimate trophy, and in particular, I think the injury issues for Detroit might be the biggest factor of all. If perennial Norris Trophy winner Niklas Lidstrom returns and can play at his usual level and the same is true for Hart Trophy candidate Pavel Datsyuk, the Red Wings will be very tough for Pittsburgh to handle. However, if those guys can't return, or aren't playing close to 100%, the series may very well be the Penguins' to lose.

Since the Red Wings have always been my second favorite team behind Buffalo, along with the fact that I don't particularly care for Pittsburgh and especially Mr. Crosby, my heart tells me to take Detroit. However, I have a bad feeling about this series, and the injuries in particular concern me a lot, so my head says Pittsburgh is going to win. As much fun as it is to pick with my heart, I rarely ever do it...

Pittsburgh wins in 6 games.

In other news, you have may have noticed by now that our site officially has a new address. You can now find us at www.dandssports.com though our previous address will also redirect you to the proper location. Along with the official domain name, we're also toying with some other ideas on ways to change the site up some, so be on the lookout for that in the near future. Additionally, as always your feedback is greatly appreciated and if you have any suggestions for changes you'd like to see here, feel free to let us know. You can shoot us an email at feedback@dandssports.com. Devin will be by either tonight or tomorrow with his preview and picks, as well as updated standings for the prediction contest heading into the Finals. Be sure to check back!

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