Final Four Preview
And then there were four. March Madness has been unusually devoid of upsets and spectacular moments as a whole, but the end result is essentially the same. Four of the best teams in the country will meet in Detroit this weekend to decide a national champion. Let's take a look at those teams and their paths taken thus far.(1) Connecticut vs. (2) Michigan St. - CBS, Saturday - 6:07pm
Connecticut faced some scrutiny before the tournament even began as some questioned whether or not they were deserving of a #1 seed. That question has essentially been erased as the Huskies ran through the West bracket without too much of a challenge. Tennessee Chattanooga and Texas A&M were both blown out by UConn on the opening weekend and then Purdue and Missouri fell victim in Glendale, Arizona. The Missouri game was the toughest challenge for Connecticut, as the Tigers attempted to use their speed to their advantage. The Huskies were able to adapt however, as freshman guard Kemba Walker had the best game of his career, scoring 23 points in helping secure a Final Four birth with a 82-75 win. So far through 4 games, the Huskies have been shooting the ball very well, 51.5% for the tournament. If they can keep this up, they're going to be difficult to beat.
Michigan St. has continuously proven me wrong. I picked them to lose to Kansas in the Sweet 16 and they held them off in a tight game. I picked them to lose to Louisville and they basically embarrassed them in a 64-52 victory. The Spartans also beat Robert Morris and a talented USC squad to make their way to the Final 4. The game against the Cardinals was a back and forth struggle into the 2nd half, but Michigan St. dropped the hammer on Rick Pitino's team, walking away down the stretch. Big man Goran Suton has been the difference maker for the Spartans so far in the tournament and he lead the way again against Louisville, scoring 19 and adding 10 rebounds. Michigan St. may just be a team of destiny as they certainly have a lot of trends on their side. They've never lost a tournament as 2 seed, going 9-0 so far. This is the 30th anniversary of the National Championship team lead by Magic Johnson. Last but not least, they're now heading to Detroit for the Final 4, which is just 90 miles from East Lansing.
Tom Izzo has proven himself amongst the best coaches in the college game currently, as this is Michigan State's 5th trip to the Final Four in 11 seasons under his leadership. They haven't look exceptional so far in the tournament except for late against Louisville, but they've done enough to get by so far and they're going to have a decidedly home court advantage this weekend. The NCAA has a goal of getting 70,000 fans into Ford Field for the games, and this will be the first time the court has been set up at mid-field rather than in one of the corners of the stadium. Lucky for the NCAA that MSU made it this far and is so close to home, because they might not attain their goal otherwise. I'd expect a lot of Spartan Spirit to be in the house for at least Saturday's game. UConn will have to overcome that, but they look up to the task based on their tournament thus far. The Huskies have made the Final Four two other times and won the championship both times. They'll look to continue that trend this weekend.One of the key matchups to watch in this one will be the big man as Goran Suton does battle with Hasheem Thabeet. Thabeet is perhaps the most dominating presence in the middle that the NCAA has to offer, but Suton will not challenge him there if he's smart. Suton has the ability to shoot the ball fairly well and will look to draw Thabeet away from the basket to open up the lane for his teammates. The problem is that UConn also has 6'7 Jeff Adrien to help out in that area. Another key matchup is at the point guard position. Kalin Lucas runs the offense for the Spartans and is perhaps the most consistent player they have. Conversely, freshmen Kemba Walker holds down that spot for the Huskies and he has only been in that position for a while since Jerome Dyson went down due to injury in mid-February. Connecticut has the better starting 5 in this matchup, but Michigan St. has the deeper bench. Coaching is pretty much a wash as Calhoun and Izzo are two of the best. It hasn't paid off for me so far, but I'm going to pick against Michigan St. yet again. UConn has been one of the two most impressive teams in this tournament so far in my opinion and I like them to advance to Monday's championship game.
(1) North Carolina vs. (3) Villanova - CBS, Saturday - 8:47pm
North Carolina's closest game thus far in the tourney has been a 12 point victory. The Tar Heels have been nothing short of dominant so far, beating Radford, LSU, Gonzaga, and Oklahoma by an average of 22.5 points per game. The Sooners were expected to provide a battle in their Elite 8 matchup, but Blake Griffin is the only person that offered some competition. He finished with 23 points and 16 rebounds, but only one other Sooner scored in double figures. Meanwhile, UNC got 19 from Ty Lawson and 18 from Danny Green, not even needing last year's player of the year, Tyler Hansbrough to do much of anything. Hansbrough took only 4 shots on the game, scoring just 8 points. Roy William's team shot 51% and never trailed in the game. North Carolina had a walk in the park through the South regional and look like a tough out for the remainder of the tournament.
Villanova was perhaps a bit underrated heading into the tournament because of the depth of talent in the Big East, but they've proven themselves amongst the elite teams in the nation this year. They had to squeak past Pitt at the last second to make the Final Four, but prior to that, they had no trouble with American, UCLA, or Duke, whom they embarrassed in the Sweet 16. The Wildcats jumped out to a quick lead against Pittsburgh, but endured a back and forth battle throughout the second half before eventually winning on Scottie Reynolds last second basket. 'Nova had trouble controlling Pitt's big men DeJuan Blair and Sam Young, who combined for 48 points, but countered with 4 players in double figures. The Wildcats also went 22/23 from the free throw line while Pittsburgh was 21/29, a difference that likely decided the game.
North Carolina is at it's best when they get out on the run and score transition baskets. Villanova however, matches up well with that style of play with athletic guards and forwards like Reynolds and Dante Cunningham. Judging by Villanova's difficulty against Pittsburgh's big guys, UNC might be better suited to try and run the offense through Tyler Hansbrough and work the inside. Whichever tactic Roy Williams decides upon, it's going to be difficult for Villanova to keep up with the Heels. Ty Lawson has been playing fantastic ball despite his injury thus far, and Wayne Ellington is capable of contributing at a high level as well. Add in the occasional game like Green had against Oklahoma and it becomes a matter of who do you focus your attention on. The Wildcats rely very heavily on their starting 5 and it's going to be hard for them to avoid wearing down over the course of 40 minutes.The bottom line is that nobody has made winning look as easy as North Carolina so far in this tournament and I don't see any of the remaining teams being able to match up well with them. It's going to take an off game to slow down the Tar Heels at this point, but somebody always seems to step up for them. As much as it pains me to say so, I simply can't pick against them at this point. Be sure to check back sometime on Monday as I preview the National Championship game!
Elite 8 Preview: Sunday Games
(1) Louisville vs. (2) Michigan St.: CBS - 2:20pm
Speaking of lack of drama, it was most apparent when Louisville faced off with Arizona in Indianapolis. Rick Pitino moved to 9-0 all time as a coach in the Sweet 16 round as the Cardinals simply dismantled the Wildcats, winning the game 104-64. The Cardinals never trailed in the game and continually expanded their lead throughout, never letting off the gas pedal. Louisville put 5 players in double figures while shooting nearly 58% from the field. Earl Clark's 19 points and 9 rebounds lead the way, but this was a full team effort without a doubt. All 13 Louisville players found their way to the score sheet and the celebrating came early in this one. The Cards are leaving little doubt in anybody's mind as to why they were named the top overall seed in the tournament.
Michigan St. did not have quite as easy of a night on Friday, battling Kansas until the very end. Down by as much as 13 late in the first half, the Spartans battled their way back and edged ahead for good in the final minute, winning the game 67-62. Big Ten player of the year Kalin Lucas struggled for most of the game, but in crunch time, his star shined brightest. He scored 7 points in the last 49 seconds to advance Tom Izzo's squad to the Elite 8. Lucas finished with 18 points and 7 assists, while center Goran Suton was the only other player in double figures with 20 points and 9 rebounds. Suton was battling head to head with Cole Aldrich and effectively counter balanced him. The Spartans didn't shoot particularly well as a team, but their defense made up for it, forcing 19 Kansas turnovers, including 13 steals for Michigan St.. The Spartans remained undefeated in the NCAA tournament as a 2 seed.
I've been reluctant to give Michigan St. much credit up until this point, but they proved they belong by holding off Kansas last night. However, they know face a buzzsaw in the Louisville Cardinals. Pitino is a master at having his teams ready for March, and this year has proved no exception. A brief moment of doubt against Siena is about the only adversity the Cardinals have faced thus far, but the Spartans will certainly be the highest quality opponent Louisville has seen in this tournament. Still, the Cardinals are battle tested after winning the Big East which has proved how good it is by placing 4 teams in the Elite 8. The Spartans will surely keep it closer than Arizona could manage, but in the end, I think Louisville's full court pressure and endless bench is going to prove more than Izzo's bunch can handle.(1) UNC vs. (2) Oklahoma: CBS - 5:05pm
North Carolina has had a very similar tournament to Louisville thus far, with only a momentary concern in the 2nd round slowing them down up to this point. Friday night was more of the same for the Tar Heels as they faced Gonzaga in Memphis. Ty Lawson again proved he was healthy enough to contribute as he scored 17 of his 19 points in the first half and propelled Carolina to an 11 point lead at the break. The game never got any closer than that margin in the 2nd half as UNC pulled away to the 98-77 win. Lawson also had 9 assists and just on turnover in his 27 minutes of action. Tyler Hansbrough was solid as usual, contributing 24 points and 10 boards to the effort. The Tar Heels out rebounded Gonzaga 40-28 and has 23 assists compared to the Bulldogs 10. North Carolina will be looking for it's 100th tournament win on Sunday when they face off with Oklahoma.
Blake Griffin continues to be a tour de force in his effort to get Oklahoma a National Championship. Friday night was more of the same as Syracuse, like so many before them, had no answer for the soon to be Naismith Award winner. On this night, it was 30 points and 15 rebounds on 12/15 shooting. Jim Boeheim was denied his 800th career victory and will have to wait until next season to join that club now, as the Sooners knocked off the Orange, 84-71. Griffin didn't do it all by himself however, junior guard Tony Crocker chipped in 28 points including 6 baskets from beyond the arc. Syracuse on the other hand was stone cold from 3 point land, missing it's first 10 attempts and finishing 7/24. The Orange never lead in this one and the Sooners enjoyed a margin as large as 27 points in the 2nd half before sealing the deal and moving to the Elite 8.
Oklahoma vs. North Carolina was one of the first potential matchups of the tournament that I noticed and anticipated. A classic "irresistible force meets immovable object" matchup, although perhaps both qualify as irresistible forces in this instance. Last year's Player of the Year, Tyler Hansbrough will do battle with this year's soon to be award winner Blake Griffin, and it should be an entertaining matchup. Carolina is averaging over 94 points per game so far in the tournament, just about their average for the year at 90.5. Griffin on the other hand is yet to have a game under 25 points and 15 rebounds. Blake Griffin is likely going to get his numbers yet again, despite Carolina's ability to throw multiple, talented big men at him, but the question falls on the supporting cast. Oklahoma will need Tony Crocker to keep up his hot shooting if they want to hang with the likes of Ty Lawson's dynamic point guard play and talented swingman Wayne Ellington's ability to get to the basket and score. This will likely be a very offensive based game and I think in the end, the Tar Heels simply have more weapons to rely on. This should be a fun one to watch, but I think in the end, Carolina advances to the Final 4 next weekend.
Sweet 16 Preview: Friday Games
Thursday's West Region (Glendale) Games:
(1) Connecticut vs. (5) Purdue, 7:07pm
(2) Memphis vs. (3) Missouri, 9:37pm
Thursday's East Region (Boston) Games:
(1) Pittsburgh vs. (4) Xavier, 7:27pm
(2) Duke vs. (3) Villanova, 9:57pm
Friday's Midwest Region (Indianapolis) Games:
(1) Louisville vs. (12) Arizona, 7:07pm
(2) Michigan St. vs. (3) Kansas, 9:37pm
Friday's South Region (Memphis) Games:
(2) Oklahoma vs. (3) Syracuse, 7:27pm
(1) UNC vs. (4) Gonzaga, 9:57pm
(1) Louisville vs. (12) Arizona:
Rick Pitino's Louisville squad finished the season as one of the hottest teams in the country, winning the Big East tournament and grabbing the #1 overall seed for the NCAA Tourney. So far they haven't disappointed, first beating (16) Morehead St. by 20, 74-54 in the first round. While only able to manage a 2 point lead at the half, the Cardinals flew past the Eagles in the 2nd without much trouble. Louisville shot 58% from the field in that game and used a balanced scoring attack to advance on. The next round presented a bit more of a challenge in (9) Siena. The Cards trailed briefly in the 2nd half, but regained the lead with about 5:00 left and held on for the 79-72 victory. Turnovers were a problem for Louisville in this one, but Terrence Williams' 24 point, 15 rebound effort helped them get by the Saints. A 49% shooting night and a large advantage in the rebound category didn't hurt matters either.
Much has been made about Arizona barely getting into the tournament, but regardless of that fact, they've played well through 2 rounds. The Wildcats had little trouble in dispatching (5) Utah in their first game, knocking off the Utes, 84-71. Virtually all their scoring came from their starters, including 20 from Chase Budinger and 29 from Nic Wise. Arizona was amongst the many teams who put on fantastic shooting performances the first weekend, knocking down 54.5% in the first game. The second round was more of the same as the Wildcats handled upset minded (13) Cleveland St. with relative ease as well, 71-57. Another 50% shooting effort along with an efficient 24/28 night at the free throw line were key components of this win. Nic Wise again lead the scoring effort, putting in 21.
Two key items feed into each other to help me shape my opinion of this game. The Cardinals use a full court pressure defense frequently that makes the other team work very hard and forces many turnovers. Arizona on the other hand, barely uses their bench at all. Their 5 starters have been averaging in the 36+ minute range in two games that weren't even that close. That tells me that interim coach Russ Pennell doesn't have much confidence after his starting 5. Look for Pitino to run them ragged and the Cardinals to pull away late in the game.
(2) Michigan St. vs. (3) Kansas:
Michigan St. used a 21-0 run to move past a 30-30 tie against (15) Robert Morris in the first round. The Spartans eventually walked away with a 77-62 win, and moved on to the round of 32. 5 players scored in double figures including 16 each from Draymond Green and Raymar Morgan, along with 11 points and 17 boards from Goran Suton. Tom Izzo's group had to contend with a very good 10 seed in USC in the 2nd round. In a game that never saw a lead of more than 6 points for either team, the Spartans beat the Trojans 74-69 in a battle that would have done Ancient Greece proud. Michigan St. relied heavily on it's bench and got well distributed scoring, including 18 points from Travis Walton. The win marked the Spartans 8th trip to the Sweet 16 in the past 12 years.
It's hard to remember that Kansas is the defending national champion, since most of that team is no longer around, but Sherron Collins is still around and proving his importance. The Jayhawks withheld a (14) North Dakota State second half rally to pull out the 84-74 win in the opening round. Collins was a very large part of that, dropping a season high 32 points. Sophomore big man Cole Aldrich helped out with 23 points and 13 rebounds to help Kansas advance. (10) Dayton hoped to pulled off the upset in the 2nd round, but the Jayhawks would have none of that. Cole Aldrich again came through, this time putting up a triple double as Kansas cruised to a 60-43 win. 13 points, 20 rebounds, and 10 blocks add up to one of the more impressive tournament performances in recent memory. The Flyers were held to a woeful 22% shooting, which meant that even though Kansas couldn't hit a 3 to save their lives (3/16), the Jayhawks were heading to the Sweet 16. Collins added another 25 point effort for Kansas as well.I didn't really have much confidence in Michigan St. heading into the tournament and they haven't done much to improve my perception at this point. I don't think the Spartans have what it takes to stop both Aldrich and Collins. One or the other at least will have another big game and the Jayhawks should be heading to the Elite 8.
(2) Oklahoma vs. (3) Syracuse:
Much like Duke/Villanova, this game would seem to be the other premiere matchup of the weekend to most. Oklahoma has essentially ridden one man's back to get where they are, and don't expect that to change. The Sooners crushed (15) Morgan St. to start off the tournament, winning 82-54. Despite being slammed judo style to the court by the opposition, Blake Griffin was dominant as always, scoring 28 points and adding 13 rebounds. The team shot a ridiculous 60.4% and never trailed in the game. (10) Michigan came into their 2nd round matchup playing very well, and hung with OU for a half, but just like many before them, had no answer for Griffin. Oklahoma won 73-63, powered by Blake's 33 points and 17 rebounds. The win marked Oklahoma's first trip to the Sweet 16 in 6 years.
Syracuse seemingly came out of nowhere with their Big East run and by virtue of beating UConn in their 6OT thriller, seemingly became a favorite for many heading into the NCAA tourney. Their first round game against (14) Stephen F. Austin saw the Orange run out to a huge lead and then coast home for the 59-44 win. Outstanding point guard Johnny Flynn lead the way with 16 points and 7 assists while the team as a whole held the Lumberjacks to just under 25% from the field. While the margin was much tighter, the layout was generally the same in Syracuse's second round win over Arizona St. They took control early and kind of coasted on home for the win. This time by only 11, 78-67. 5 players put up double figure scoring efforts, lead by Eric Devendorf's 21. 'Cuse managed a 55% shooting night, including 45% from 3 point land.
Let me say right up front that Syracuse will not stop Blake Griffin. Nobody has done it all year and I don't expect it to start now. The guy is the obvious Naismith Player of the Year Award winner and #1 pick in the NBA Draft and he has steamrolled all opposition. The question instead will be can the Syracuse guards due enough to overcome him? Oklahoma has had spotty guard play during the year, and will need to find a way to try and keep Johnny Flynn and Eric Devendorf in check. I think the Orange finally lose the magic and run out of steam in this one. The Sooners advance, but barely.
(1) UNC vs. (4) Gonzaga:
After UConn, North Carolina has probably been the most impressive team thus far in the tournament. That comes as little to surprise many, as UNC seemed to be the odds on favorite to win going into the tournament amongst public opinion. (16) Radford didn't have a prayer really, as the Tar Heels just thrashed them from start to finish, 101-58. Tyler Hansbrough set the all time ACC scoring record en route to his 22 points, and Wayne Ellington cashed in for 25 more. Nobody had to play more than 30 minutes in this one and every bit of rest helps as UNC moved on to the next round. (8) LSU battled back in the 2nd half to make the game interesting, but the Tar Heels closed on a 21-7 run to put away the Tigers, 84-70. Ty Lawson made his return from a toe injury and started off shaky, but scored 21 of his game high 23 in the second half to help North Carolina advance. Ellington matched the 23 of Lawson and UNC shot over 54% in moving to the Sweet 16.Gonzaga has officially shed their "Cinderella" tag now. They entered the tournament as the 10th ranked team in the nation and grabbed a 4 seed in the process. The Bulldogs faced (13) Akron in their first game and actually trailed well into the 2nd half before burying the Zips with a 31-6 run, eventually winning 77-64. Josh Heytvelt had an efficient shooting night on his way to a game high 22 points. The Zags would go on to face a tough and experienced 12 seed in Western Kentucky in the 2nd round and had their hands full throughout. The back and forth game would result in the most exciting finish of the tournament thus far when freshman Demitri Goodson went the length of the court and put in a layup with .9 left on the clock, giving the Bulldogs the win, 83-81. 5 Bulldogs scored in double figures, lead by Matt Bouldin's 20. He also added 8 rebounds and 6 assists in a solid all around game. Gonzaga returns to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2006 after consecutive 1st round losses the past 2 years.
Gonzaga is experienced and athletic, two good combinations for the NCAA tournament. The only problem... UNC is more experienced and more athletic. The Bulldogs are probably one of the few teams that could keep pace with the Tar Heels, but with Ty Lawson back in the lineup, Carolina just has too many weapons. Between Hansbrough, Ellington, and Lawson, there is almost always an option for the Heels. Look for Roy William's team to move on to the Elite 8 for a potential matchup of the reigning and soon to be crowned Players of the Year.
Quick Thoughts on Selection Sunday
Let's start with the #1 seeds. Looking back quickly at my last AP Top Ten article, my picks for top seeds proved prophetic as Louisville, Pitt, UNC, and UConn grabbed the top spots. This proves the power of the Big East this season as it's the first time that I can remember 3 teams from the same conference have managed to all grab #1 seeds. Additionally, I pegged Memphis, Michigan St., and Oklahoma as 2 seeds, only missing out on Duke, whose strong performance in winning the ACC tournament grabbed them the 2 slot in the East regional. There really isn't much in the way of surprises in terms of the top seeds, but this biggest debate seemed to come in whether Memphis or UConn would get the last 1 seed. Memphis playing in Conference USA obviously bit them here, dropping them to the 2 spot in the West, but putting them in the same bracket as UConn tells me that the selection committee couldn't make up it's mind and decided to let them play it out.
The most intriguing first round matchups in my opinion include Oklahoma St. playing Tennessee, Texas vs. Minnesota, Butler vs. LSU, and Michigan taking on Clemson. I would consider all these games as toss ups and should make for some entertaining basketball early on. As far as upsets go, I see quite a few possibilities early on, but I think most of the top seeds will progress deep into the tournament. Amongst my first round notable upsets are Arizona over Utah and Western Kentucky over Illinois in the dreaded 12/5 matchup. At least one if not two upsets come from the 12/5 games every year, and I don't see that changing now. I also picked 3 out of 4 of the 11 seeds to move on in the first round, with Utah St. defeating Marquette, Temple over Arizona St., and Virginia Commonwealth knocking off UCLA.
I'll save the later round stuff for another time, but suffice it to say I'm finding it hard to pick against the 1 and 2 seeds for the most part. Once again, be sure to check back and see how Devin and I break down the whole tournament in the coming days. It's March Madness and it's my favorite sporting event of the year, so I'll be bringing you loads of coverage throughout!
A Look at the AP Top Ten
1. North Carolina (27-3)
UNC finished up only 3 points ahead of Pitt in the polls, but they're back at #1 where they spent a good portion of the early part of the year. The Tar Heels finished strong with wins over Virginia Tech and #9 Duke last week, and going 13-1 since mid-January, losing only to Maryland in overtime. Carolina is essentially assured a #1 seed in the tournament regardless of how they do in the ACC tourney this week. The only question mark this team faces right now is the health of Ty Lawson. The star junior guard has an injured toe and some have suggested he might sit out part or all of the ACC tournament in order to be healthy for the following week.
2. Pittsburgh (28-3)
The Panthers final week of the year saw them beat both Marquette and UConn with relative ease at home. The Panthers swept the Huskies this season in impressive fashion and wind up 2nd in the Big East behind #5 Louisville. Pitt seems to be firing on all cylinders at this point, and while they might get tripped up in the Big East tourney, it's doubtful that it would cost them a #1 seed. The Panthers are going to be a force in the NCAA tourney and are my early favorites to win, pending how the brackets turn out next Sunday.
3. Connecticut (27-3)
If it weren't for Pitt, Connecticut would have spend the entire 2nd half of the season at #1. The Huskies have been viewed by many as the best team in the country, but a 2nd loss to the Panthers puts that in serious doubt. Finishing 3rd in the Big East assures them 2 extra days of rest while the rest of the conference does battle, and barring a very poor performance, many expect UConn to grab one of the #1 seeds as well. Connecticut has blown out almost all their competition this season, with the obvious exception of their losses, so expect them to go deep in the NCAA tourney. I'd be quite surprised if they didn't make it to the Elite 8 at the very least.
4. Memphis (28-3)
Every week I write virtually the same thing about the Tigers. They continue to pound away on Conference USA like the biggest bully on the playground and all the while, they lose credit with experts around the country because of it. They haven't lost since before Christmas, and barring a miracle, they aren't going to lose in their conference tournament either. Memphis will likely pull down a 2 seed, again because of their lack of competition, but the question on everybody's mind is how long will they last in the Big Dance? I don't think this team has the talent of the last few years, and I expect them to make a fairly early exit, likely on the 2nd weekend.
5. Louisville (25-5)
The Big East regular season champion Cardinals finished out their season with wins over Seton Hall and West Virginia. If Rick Pitino's squad puts in a solid showing in the conference tourney, they could very well be the 3rd #1 seed out of the Big East next Sunday night. The Cards have taken two poundings at the hands of UConn and Notre Dame, but remained otherwise flawless in 2009. This team kind of snuck up on everybody and I think many are still unsure just what they're capable of. I don't like to bet against Pitino in March however, and won't be surprised to see them last deep into the NCAA tourney.
6. Oklahoma (27-4)
The Sooners hit another bump late in the year, dropping a surprise game at #14 Missouri last Wednesday, before knocking of in state rival OSU to finish out the season. This loss likely cost them a 1 seed, but they should still fair well at the #2 spot they are likely to get. I'd be rather surprised if Oklahoma doesn't at least make the finals of the Big 12 tournament, about as surprised as I would be if Blake Griffin doesn't win the Naismith Award this year. The Sooners will go just as far as Griffin can carry them in the NCAA tourney, and I'd be willing to bet that it's quite aways. I still think that OU has what it takes to make it to Detroit and the Final Four.
7. Michigan St. (25-5)
Sparty just keeps on chugging along, finishing up with wins against Indiana and Purdue last week. Of their 5 losses, 3 of them came against quality teams, but UNC and Maryland both destroyed them, which makes you question how they will fair outside of the Big 10. Michigan St. is likely on point for a 2 seed, barring a complete collapse in the conference tourney this week. Tom Izzo has his work cut out for him though in my opinion, as I see MSU having trouble getting past the Sweet 16.
8. Wake Forest (24-5)
Wake Forest polished off their regular season with wins against Maryland and Clemson en route to a 2nd place finish in the ACC. The ACC Tournament should be crazy this week as always and the Demon Deacons will probably be playing for a 2 or 3 seed depending on their performance. The athleticism of this team is going to be very hard for teams outside of the ACC to deal with, and regardless of their seed, I like them to make at least the Elite 8 in the NCAA Tournament.
9. Duke (25-6)
The Blue Devils won a tight game against Florida St. on Wednesday but couldn't overcome #1 UNC in Chapel Hill on Sunday afternoon, winding up 3rd in the ACC. On the plus side for Duke, their top 3 players have established themselves late in the year and the insertion of freshmen Elliot Williams into the starting lineup has paid off for Coach K's squad. Adversely however, their depth has been a question down the stretch with their bench players not performing at the level their capable of. Barring a lousy performance in the ACC Tournament, Duke looks poised for a 3 seed and should finally make it past the Sweet 16 once again in the NCAA Tourney. I expect them to make it to the Elite 8 before a patented cold shooting nice bounces them back to Durham.
10. Villanova (25-6)
The Wildcats trampled Providence on Wednesday to finish the regular season at 4th in the Big East. Georgetown is really the only disappointing loss on their schedule this season, but for the most part Villanova has managed to stay under the radar in their loaded conference. Dynamic guard play from Scottie Reynolds and Corey Fisher has helped propel Nova this far, but they lack a true big man, which usually proves important in the NCAA tournament. I expect Villanova to last about as long as they don't have to face a Blake Griffin, Hasheem Thabeet, or DeJuan Blair.
A Look at the AP Top Ten
1. Connecticut (27-2)
Two weeks ago I wrote that UConn would likely fade away from the top spot after a loss to Pittsburgh. Well, I was right about that, but they quickly regained the spot today. Since the lost to Pittsburgh, the Huskies have taken down South Florida, Marquette, and Notre Dame. Oh, and Jim Calhoun had a little incident you might have heard about as well. Connecticut can relax this week as they don't play again until Saturday, but that game is a big one as they have their shot at redemption on the road at Pittsburgh. Regardless of the outcome of that game, the Huskies only need a solid showing in the Big East Tournament to get a #1 seed in the Big Dance.
2. North Carolina (25-3)
UNC has continued to climb back towards the top of the rankings where they were for much of the early part of the season, falling just short of the top spot. Since we last looked, the Tar Heels have knocked off neighboring NC State, as well as ACC bottom dweller Georgia Tech. They dropped a tough battle in College Park in between however, falling to Maryland in overtime thanks in large part to a triple double from Greivis Vasquez. UNC has 2 games left in their regular season, first against a desperate Virginia Tech team who needs one more big win to ensure themselves a spot in the tourney on Wednesday, followed up by a season ending show down at home against #7 Duke on Sunday. Much like the Huskies, a solid performance in the ACC will all but lock up a #1 seed in the NCAA tourney.
3. Pittsburgh (26-3)
Pitt managed to claim the top spot last week after their strong performance at UConn, but it was fleeting as they dropped a game at Providence, where they were outplayed the entire way. Wins over DePaul and Seton Hall didn't do much to help the Panthers as those teams sit near the bottom of the Big East. Jamie Dixon's squad finishes up with 2 tough games though, hosting Marquette on Wednesday and then UConn on Saturday. If the team can at least split those games and make it to the semi-finals of the Big East Tourney, they will likely grab a #1 seed on selection Sunday as well. I personally still think this team will be a beast in the NCAA tournament due to the presence of big man DeJuan Blair.
4. Oklahoma (26-3)
Just as they looked poised to finally take the #1 ranking when Pitt beat UConn, the Sooners had a decided setback. Early in the first half of a big matchup with Texas, Player of the Year favorite, Blake Griffin took a shot to the head and ended up leaving the game with a concussion. Oklahoma battled hard, but couldn't overcome their loss. Further proving how much Griffin means to them, Oklahoma then went on to lose it's next game at home against Kansas as well. Blake is back now though and OU is right back to it's winning ways, winning easily against Texas Tech on Saturday. Oklahoma wraps up at #15 Missouri on Wednesday and hosts Oklahoma St. on Saturday. Barring something unexpected, Oklahoma figures to grab the last of the 4 top seeds.
5. Memphis (26-3)
Memphis just keeps on winning, but can't seem to move up the rankings at all. The Tigers have now won 20 straight games this season and a ridiculous 56 consecutive conference games. But there in lies the problem. Memphis just doesn't get the respect that Big East or ACC schools get due to their vastly inferior conference. The last legit competition they faced (and you might say the only legit competition they've faced all year) was Syracuse, Georgetown, and Xavier. Those 3 teams happen to represent all 3 losses for the Tigers. As I've mentioned before, John Calipari has a way of having his team ready come tourney time despite this, but I won't be all that surprised to see the Tigers make an early exit this time around.
6. Lousiville (23-5)
The Cardinals are perhaps the forgotten Big East team at this point, but they certainly should not be overlooked. Since our last look, they've reeled off 4 straight wins including beating Marquette yesterday. They finish up hosting Seton Hall on Wednesday and at West Virginia on Saturday. Both games should result in wins for Louisville and I would look out for them as a #2 seed in the NCAA tourney. Rick Pitino is a master come March, and with the 1-2 punch of Earl Clark and Terrence Williams, the Cards could make some noise.
7. Duke (24-5)
It took a while, but Duke finally managed to turn things around. After some lineup changes, Coach K seems to have hit upon a winning combination by starting freshman guard Eliott Williams. Williams has provided a big spark since being given the opportunity and it's translated to success for the Blue Devils. They've won their last 4 in a row including an outstanding performance in a rematch against Wake Forest, going for 101 in the 10 point victory. John Scheyer and Gerald Henderson both had career games with 30 and 35 respectively and momentum seems to be back on Duke's side. They close with two tough games, hosting #24 Florida State on Tuesday and then heading 8 miles down the road to Chapel Hill to face the #2 Tar Heels on Sunday. Duke is looking at a 2 or 3 seed for the tournament and seem poised to make their deepest run in the past several years.
8. Michigan St. (23-5)
The Spartans fell off a bit after getting blown out at #19 Purdue two weeks ago, but have rebounded with wins against Wisconsin, Iowa, and #23 Illinois since. Michigan St. heads to Indiana to face a pretty awful Hoosier squad on Tuesday before finishing up at home in a rematch against Purdue. That game should mean a lot to Tom Izzo's squad as they look for redemption and possibly a higher seed for March Madness. Kalin Lucas and Raymar Morgan have been solid for the team all year, but they'll need to be at their best come tournament time if the folks in East Lansing have hopes of making it very far.
9. Kansas (24-5)
The Jayhawks have quietly chugged along unnoticed for most of the year and now find themselves in the Top Ten in March. Kansas has lost only once in it's last 14 games, that being a narrow 2 point loss on the road at #15 Missouri. Along the way, they've knocked off #4 Oklahoma (without Blake Griffin it should be noted) but not much of anybody else. Still, Bill Self's squad can finish out on top of the Big 12 by winning their last 2 games, at Texas Tech on Wednesday, and home to Texas on Saturday. Junior guard Sherron Collins is extremely talented, scoring 18.5 points per game to go along with 4 assists, and sophomore center Cole Aldrich averages a double double with his 15.1 points and 10.8 boards per game. I'm not sure how well the Jayhawks will hold up against increased competition in the NCAA tournament, but they'll enter as one of the hotter teams in the country if they continue their winning ways.
10. Wake Forest (22-5)
After a bit of a cold spell, Wake Forest has seemingly found it's stride again, having won 4 of it's last 5. The lone loss coming at #7 Duke, when the Blue Devils put on perhaps their best performance of the season. Granted, the other 3 wins the Demon Deacons have had since we last looked at the Top Ten all came against the 3 weakest teams in the ACC, but it provides a confidence boost if nothing else. Wake faces Maryland on the road Tuesday before finishing up at home against #18 Clemson on Sunday. Looking at either a 3 or a 4 seed for the NCAA depending on their finish, Dino Gaudio's team can be a difficult matchup for some. They are one of the longest and most athletic teams in the country and few schools have a defensive answer to the trio of Jeff Teague, James Johnson, and Al-Farouq Aminu. Despite some setbacks, I still like Wake to make it perhaps as far as the Elite 8.
A Quck Look at the AP Top Ten
1. Pittsburgh (14-0)
Jamie Dixon's Panthers have finally risen to the top of the Big East, which is nationally recognized as the toughest top to bottom conference in the country. One of only 3 remaining undefeated teams in the nation, Pitt has an outstanding starting five, but DeJaun Blair stands out amongst them. The 6'7" forward is averaging just over 14 points and 12.5 boards per night and has been a strong physical presence thus far. While Pittsburgh didn't play the toughest of non-conference schedules, there really are no easy games in the Big East, so they will be plenty battle tested when it matters most.
2. Duke (14-1)
Duke is a perennial power and it should be no surprise to see them at the top of the polls. The question for this team is whether or not they can last more than 2 rounds come tournament time. Duke's biggest downfalls over the past few years have been a lack of a big man as well as an over-reliance on 3 point shooting. The Blue Devils have begun to correct those problems with the emergence of Greg Zoubek (7'1") as a much more solid player along with a bit more uptempo style relying on quick cuts and moves to the basket and a little less shooting the 3. Still, Duke is prone to poor shooting performances from time to time and can't afford one when it's most critical. The ACC once again boasts some of the top teams in the country, so expect to see a bit of a game of musical chairs atop the standings now that conference play has begun.
3. North Carolina (14-1)
Having a stacked team return virtually everybody lead UNC to being the preseason #1 and having the expectations placed on the Tar Heels at a new high. Naismith winner Tyler Hansbrough is the anchor for the team and an early favorite to repeat this year. He currently averages just a tick under 23 points per game and right around 7 rebounds as well. Throw in the dynamic play of point guard Ty Lawson and it's easy to see why it's Final Four or bust in Chapel Hill. An early let down at home against Boston College may have been just what the team needed to light a fire under them moving forward through the ACC schedule. I wouldn't expect these guys to fall out of the Top 10 all year as long as they stay healthy.
4. Wake Forest (13-0)
Wake Forest should scare the fans of any opponent this year, and especially fans of ACC counterparts. Somehow the Demon Deacons have still managed to go a bit under the radar, despite their #4 ranking and still beating undefeated, but that could certainly change if they are able to knock off UNC at home in Winston-Salem tonight. This team has length and athleticism by the boat load and present some extreme matchup challenges for most of their opponents. 4 players average in double figures when it comes to scoring, and 3 of them pull down 6+ boards a night. The one downfall that this team might face is a lack of experience. Of their 3 main contributors, 2 are sophomores and 1 is a freshmen. Coach Dino Gaudio has done a fantastic job since taking over for the late Skip Prosser and I would expect him to have this team ready to make a splash down the stretch this year.
5. Connecticut (14-1)
Another of the 9 Big East teams ranked in the Top 25, UConn is lead by experienced big men in Jeff Adrien and Hasheem Thabeet. Thabeet provides a physical presence that can be matched by only a few throughout the country. At 7'3" and 263 lbs., the junior center is currently averaging 13.9 points, 10.7 rebounds, and 3.7 blocks per game, which is good enough for 3rd in the nation. So far, their only slip up came at home to #10 Georgetown, but they do hold a quality win over Gonzaga in overtime. Other than the Zags however, UConn also hasn't played much of anybody. Again, the Big East schedule is going to include no softballs this year, so we should have a clearer look at just how good this team is in a few weeks time.
The Sooners have a leading candidate for National Player of the Year in Blake Griffin. The sophomore forward is currently putting up 22 points and 14 boards a night and essentially guarantees a double double game in and game out. At 6'10", he has the size that always seems to help a team in the Big Dance to no end. Oklahoma has already knocked off #14 Purdue as well as a solid Davidson team, and the Big-12 doesn't offer nearly as many challenges as the Big East or ACC, so you can expect OU to stay near the top of the polls all season long. Perhaps their biggest challenge comes tomorrow when facing #7 Texas, though the game is at home and the Sooners will still have to travel to Austin later in the year. A bit of a surprise loss to Arkansas probably didn't sit well with the Sooners and I'd expect them to go on a tear to make up for it.
7. Texas (12-3)
Texas has played a very difficult pre-conference schedule this season, but it's probably for the best considering the Big-12 won't offer the same level of competition. The Longhorns have been beaten by Notre Dame (#13) and Michigan State (#8), as well as the same Arkansas team that surprised Oklahoma. They also hold a win over UCLA (#10) and Villanova (#18) thus far. Senior guard A.J. Abrams leads the way for Texas, scoring just over 18 per game, which includes games of 31 and 26 respectively in the wins against UCLA and Nova, but he struggled with lackluster performances in their losses. Tomorrow represents the clash of the Big-12 Titans, Rd. 1 when Texas heads to Norman to battle the Sooners. Texas will need to stay sharp during conference play because outside of OU, they won't see teams nearly as good as the ones they've up played to this point.
8. Michigan St. (13-2)
The Spartans are a tough team to get a real feel for. Junior forward Raymar Morgan is probably their best player, giving them right around 15 points and 7 boards a game, but it's more of a balanced attack that prevails for Tom Izzo's bunch. Their 2 losses have both come at the hands of ACC teams in Maryland and UNC, and neither game was close, losing by 18 and 35. They have however beaten ranked opponents in Texas and Big-10 rival Minnesota, as well as taking down a Kansas team yesterday that was perhaps a bit overrated in the early part of the season. The Big-10 is not at the level of the premier conferences in the country right now either, and I just don't see anything in East Lansing that makes me think this team is going to make some noise down the road. Look for them to be a Sweet 16 team at best.
9. Georgetown (11-3)
Speaking of balanced attacks, the Hoyas have 4 players averaging at least 12.5 points per game, lead by 6'8" junior, DeJuan Summers at just under 15. Freshmen center Greg Monroe has looked pretty good in the early going, but Coach John Thompson III has to be hoping for more minutes and productivity from his other highly touted recruit at center, Henry Sims. Georgetown surprised a lot of people by going to UConn and winning by 11, but turned around in their next game and got beat down by Pitt by 16 at home. They then followed that up by losing at Notre Dame by 6. Like the rest of the Big East though, things won't get easier anytime soon. The Hoyas next 3 games are against Syracuse (#11), at Duke (#2), and hosting West Virginia (#25). Winning 2 of those 3 should be the goal for Georgetown.
10. UCLA (12-2)
While the Bruins lost Kevin Love after just one season, they do still have a great pair returning from last year's 3rd straight Final Four team. Seniors Darren Collison and Josh Shipp anchor this year's squad for Coach Ben Howland. Their 2 losses so far have come at the hands of a surprising Michigan team in the 2K Sports Classic at Madison Square Garden, who has also beaten Duke this year, and at Texas where they lost by 4. UCLA is a fairly solid team, but might be benefiting from their reputation just a bit. Only one other team in the Pac-10 is currently ranked, and their only remaining non-conference game is playing host to a very tough Notre Dame squad on February 7th. UCLA will likely finish the regular season with a very nice record, but they won't be too battle tested. I'd put money on their streak of Final Four appearances coming to an end this season. At least they can take comfort in knowing that their cheerleaders are smoking hot and have the best outfits in the NCAA.
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