Bills Postgame Review/NFL Top 10
10/19/2010 | Posted by
Devin
The Ravens did beat them at home, but it also took everything the Ravens had to win in the final two minutes of the game. It took the Ravens absolute best to barely win the game, while Pittsburgh was handicapped by playing the game without an NFL caliber starting QB. I know it was against Cleveland, but Roethlisberger looked pretty good, throwing for three touchdowns yesterday. That was basically opening day for him. So not only will he continue to get better as he shakes the rust off, but that five weeks off (rape suspension + bye week) also allowed him to enter Week Six completely healthy; meanwhile QBs like Mark Sanchez, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning have been taking hits and getting beat up.
2. NY Jets (NR) – Man, did the Jets ever get lucky against Denver on Sunday. With time running down, Sanchez heaved the ball deep, praying for pass interference. Of course he got it and LaDainian Tomlinson easily scored and won the game. You might remember this move from the Bears/Packers Monday Night game a few weeks ago when Jay Cutler pulled a similar stunt on the game winning drive. And this is why the pass interference rules need to change. It's a cop-out for a team struggling and desperate at the end of the game. I complain quite a bit about the way NCAA football operates, but two things they have 100% correct are overtime and pass interference rules.
3. New England Patriots (NR) – I was pretty shocked to see New England defeat Baltimore yesterday. I watched Buffalo pretty much march all over New England's awful defense and figure Joe Flacco and Ray Rice would have a field day. Apparently not. The stats were decent for both, but the 20 total points definitely wasn't. You know what else wasn't good? Tom Brady whining like a little baby when he was hit after the pass. If I were a Patriots fan, I'd be so embarrassed with his antics. I liked the fact that he got face to face with Terrell Suggs after the play, but it doesn't make up for temper tantrum seconds before. Brady officially reminds me of the rich kid that nobody likes in school, yet people still want to be friends with him so they can swim in his pool on the weekends. Just another reason to dislike Boston.
4. NY Giants (NR) - The Giants didn't exactly handle Detroit like I thought they would, but a win is a win. The tough part of their schedule is about to start. They have 10 games remaining, six of those against Washington, Dallas and Philadelphia. The others against Green Bay, Minnesota, Jacksonville and Seattle. Only the Jacksonville game looks like a sure win at this point which makes me wonder just how good the Giants will be. Right now I have them fourth but they still have a lot to prove in the upcoming weeks.
5. Baltimore Ravens (NR) – Every single time I want to think Baltimore is ready to take that next step, they slip and fall down. Despite that, they are 4-2 with road wins at Pittsburgh and the Jets. That's still pretty impressive, but I hate how inconsistent they are. I'm pretty they will be taking their frustrations out on Buffalo this Sunday, so I have that to look forward to. I see at least five definite wins on their remaining schedule, which means they are still looking good in terms of the playoffs. It won't mean much when they have to go to Heinz Field in January so they can lose again though.
6. Houston Texans (NR) – Houston really frustrates me. During Sunday's game, I was sure that Kansas City was going to win and even sent a text to Scott that Houston peeked during Week One. Then they come back and pull the rug out from under the Chiefs. So now they are 4-2 at the bye, first place in the AFC South, with a rematch against Indianapolis looming. I'm really hesitant to put Houston this high because I have a hard time trusting them. Every time we think they're good, they finish the season 8-8 and we peg them as a super sleeper for next season. I'll give them a high ranking for now but if they lose to Indianapolis in two weeks, they'll be in class with the Dolphins.
7. Philadelphia Eagles (NR) – Sometimes I love the NFL. We have teams like the Bills, Browns, 49ers and others who barely have one NFL caliber starting QB. Then we have a team like the Eagles with both Michael Vick and Kevin Kolb. First it was Kolb's job, then he gets injured and Vick snatched it away. Then Vick gets hurt and Kolb lights Atlanta up. What a problem to have. I can only imagine the arguments between fans right now. After living through the Rob Johnson/Doug Flutie nightmare, I fear for QB controversies such as this one.
(If you don't think there is one, wake up)
8. Atlanta Falcons (NR) – So I was pretty sure Atlanta was the top team in the NFC until they decided to play dead in Philly. What a horrendous performance. In my defense, it's been pretty difficult trying to get a grasp on things so far this season. I blame the NFL and parity for that. I'm starting to get the feeling that Atlanta will always be just good enough to lose in the second round, nothing more. I guess the good news for Falcons fans is that I'm almost always wrong with my predictions, so they have that going for them.
9. New Orleans Saints (NR) – Speaking of my predictions going wrong, I couldn't have been more wrong when I predicted a Tampa Bay upset over New Orleans. For the first time in the 2010 season, the Saints looked like the defending Super Bowl champs. They should destroy Cleveland next week by a similar margin, but then they have Pittsburgh at home. That will be the game that tells me whether or not New Orleans is for real this season or just hanging around with no real plans to repeat.
10. Indianapolis Colts (NR) – I know the Colts are 4-2, but they just don't look good overall. Their two losses were to division teams, while their four wins were outside of the division. What does that mean? Well it means a whole lot when it comes down to tie-breakers in December. The reason I still have the Colts at 10 is simply because of Peyton Manning. I just can't rule him out. He's too good and the Colts will always be a contender as long as he's lining up (which might literally be for another decade). But let it be known, the Colts are not the same powerhouse that they usually are. On the positive side of that, they most likely won't be able to rest their starters in the final weeks of the season, which is huge for people in fantasy playoffs. I'm excited.
Just Missing Out: Chicago, Tennessee, Kansas City, Washington, Miami
Teams I didn't consider for .0001 of a second: Buffalo, Cleveland, Carolina
Bills future QB Update (in the ever-changing order that I like them):
1. Andrew Luck – OFF (Season: 1538 yards, 16 touchdowns, 4 interceptions, 166.86 QB rating)
2. Jake Locker – 21/35, 286 yards, 5 touchdowns, 1 interception (Season: 1431 yards, 13 touchdowns, 4 interceptions, 132.56 QB rating)
3. Ryan Mallett – 10/15, 96 yards, 1 touchdown (Season: 1844 yards, 14 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, 168.11 QB rating)
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Bills vs Jets Preview
10/02/2010 | Posted by
Devin
For the first time since 2004, the Bills will open the season with a 0-4 record. Sorry to put it so bluntly, but the Bills aren't a good team and the Jets are much better. When I projected the Bills schedule before the season, I said that the Bills would split the season series with the Jets. Despite my views on how much better the Jets are than the Bills, I still think that will be the case at the end of the season. Maybe. After this week, the Bills don't face the Jets until Week 17, so there is a very real possibility the the Bills will steal a win against the Jets backups. For the sake of getting a high draft pick, I almost hope this doesn't happen. We'll save that talk for Week 17 though, there is a game this Sunday to discuss.
Quarterbacks - For as much as I rip on The Sanchize, he is better than Ryan Fitzpatrick or Brian Brohm. Then again, that isn't saying much. The Sanchize has played very well in the past two weeks and it has a lot of people thinking he's turned the corner. Me? I'm not so sure. I'll get closer to that decision when we're about halfway through the season. Food for thought. In two games against Buffalo last year, The Sanchize threw for 223 yards, one touchdown and five interceptions.
Fitzpatrick is no Pro Bowl QB, but I think he can rack up some serious yards against the Jets. It looks like Revis Island will miss his second straight game, which would put mass producer Antonio Cromartie up against Lee Evans. As Fitzpatrick displayed last Sunday in New England, he isn't afraid to hit Roscoe Parrish and Stevie Johnson over the middle when they're open. If you think I'm crazy; consider this. The Jets currently rank 27th in the NFL in pass defense, allowing an average of 274.7 yards per game.
Running Backs - I have no idea what is going on with LaDainian Tomlinson. He apparently isn't totally
washed up like he appeared to be after his tenure in San Diego. My guess is he is rejuvenated and motivated, but does it last all season? Keep in mind, he's still 31 years old. Have you ever seen Rob Zombie's version of Halloween? (If not, I suggest you do.) There is a scene in the beginning where young Michael Myers beats a bully to death with a huge tree branch in a fit of rage. It's pretty brutal. If you know the scene I'm talking about, you know exactly what Shonn Greene has done to a number of my fantasy teams this year. Greene has 106 yards and zero touchdowns so far in three games. I could list the number of players that blew those numbers away in one game, but I think I've established my point already.
I like the Bills stable of running backs a lot more than the Jets, but unfortunately for Buffalo, they have to face the Jets run defense. Being optimistic, I can see the Bills maybe running for 50 yards combined (if they're lucky).
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends - I don't intend on sounding like a homer, but I'm not sold on the Jets receivers either. Jerricho Cotchery does nothing for me. Neither does David Clowney. If Brad Smith is lining up in the wildcat, I suppose he instills a little fear in me. And I only fear Braylon Edwards if he is driving on my street at 5AM.
Even without Revis, I'm not expecting much from Lee Evans. No slight against Lee, but this is what happens when he goes up against number one defenders every week. I've loved how Chan Gailey has worked Roscoe Parrish into the games so far this season. Since coming into the NFL and being completely mis-used by the Bills, the best season for Parrish was in 2007 when he grabbed 35 passes for for 352 yards. So far in three games this season, Parrish has nine receptions for 152 yards. I'm no mathematician, but it looks to me like this will be a career year for Roscoe.
Tight ends are another story. Dustin Keller is pretty good and the Bills are horrendous at stopping the tight end. For more information, please see exhibit A.
Exhibit A:
Those numbers are due in large part to the awful pass covering ability of Donte "Toast" Whitner and Chris Kelsay. I'd like to discuss this further but after the Bills gave Kelsay a $24MM extension, I'd rather just move on to another topic.
Defense: This came as a total shock to me, but the Bills have the 22nd overall defense in the NFL and the Jets only have the 20th. The Jets have the fourth overall run defense so their overall ranking is hurt by their all-of-a-sudden mediocre pass defense. I highlighted this above, but their pass defense will surely improve when Revis Island returns to the lineup from his injured hamstring (and ego).
Going into the season, I thought the strength of the Bills (if they even had one) would be their secondary. So far it's been a major disappointment. They are currently 18th in the NFL with an average of 221.3 yards per game. I still think the secondary is good, so I have to partially chalk this up to the competition. Facing Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady in consecutive weeks is no easy task. It will be interesting to see how they do this week for multiple reasons.
Special Teams: I have no idea how anybody would rank overall special teams. So I decided to look at two aspects of special teams to get a better grasp on things.
Kicking: Rian Lindell is 4/6 on the season, with his two misses being from 50+ yards. So in reality, he's been perfect this season.
Nick Folk is 6/7 on the season, with his one loss also being from 50+ yards. I would like to rip on Nick Folk for flopping last season and being released by Dallas, but Folk is the guy who helped pull off the ridiculous comeback Dallas had on MNF in Buffalo. Excuse me while I vomit.
Returns: Honestly, I know next to nothing about the Jets return game. I just looked it up on their depth chart and according to ESPN, Brad Smith is the main kick returner and Jim Leonhard is the punt returner. Uh, whatever. I suppose both are a threat to bring it back, but I'm not very worried.
This is one aspect during the Bills decade of awfulness that they continue to dominate. Currently C.J. Spiller is the main kick returner and he already showed what he can do last week against New England. In the event he isn't available, they have Leodis McKelvin, which aside from his fumble problems last opening day, is also an explosive kick returner.
Roscoe Parrish continues to return punts for Buffalo and honestly, he's a threat to bring it back every time. There are a few returners in the NFL who I legitimately think can take it back every time they touch the ball and Parrish is on that list. Maybe that is me partially being a homer, but give him a few blocks and he's gone. Trust me.
Prediction:. Jets 23, Bills 14.
2009 NFL Preview: AFC East
9/04/2009 | Posted by
Devin
Buffalo Bills
Key Additions: Drayton Florence (CB), Terrell Owens (WR), Seth McKinney (G), Dominic Rhodes (RB), Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB), Geoff Hangartner (C), Pat Thomas (LB)
Key Losses: Jabari Greer (CB), Robert Royal (TE), Derrick Dockery (G), Angelo Crowell (LB), Duke Preston (G), Jason Peters (T), John DiGiorgio (LB), Melvin Fowler (C), J.P. Losman (QB)
Draft Picks: Aaron Maybin (DE-Penn State), Eric Wood (C-Louisville), Jairus Byrd (CB-Oregon), Andy Levitre (G-Oregon State), Shawn Nelson (TE-Southern Miss), Nic Harris (LB-Oklahoma), Cary Harris (CB-USC), Ellis Lankter (CB-West Virginia)
The Bills started off last season with a solid 5-1 record before completely falling apart and finishing the season 7-9. Many people point to the injuries the Bills suffered as a reason for their demise. While it's true that Trent Edwards went down again with an injury and J.P. Losman filled in so well that he literally ran himself out of the league, I think there was another factor in the freefall. For me, I point to the fact that in those first five wins the Bills beat teams with a combined record of 24-56 while their one loss was to the eventual NFC Champion Arizona Cardinals. Good start or easy schedule? I say easy schedule.
The Bills won't have that benefit this year as they face the AFC South and NFC South teams 
The Bills also finally realized that they had a ton of dead weight on the roster and cut the main culprits; Derrick Dockery, Melvin Fowler, and Robert Royal. Also gone from the roster is former left tackle Jason Peters. Facing another possible long holdout, the Bills decided to cut their losses with Peters and deal him to Philadelphia where he promptly got the money he thinks he deserves. Frankly after last season, I was all for trading Peters. I wasn't a fan of his ridiculously long holdout and I wasn't a fan of him coming back completely out of shape and nearly getting Edwards and Losman killed on a weekly basis. If he is now willing to play up to his capabilities in Philly with his new contract, more power to him, but I'm glad he isn't in Buffalo anymore.
Marshawn Lynch will miss the first three games for Buffalo after another offseason of trouble, but like anybody who watched the Bills play last season will tell you, having Fred Jackson in the game won't be a huge drop-off. The Bills also signed Dominic Rhodes during the offseason so that combination should have zero issues covering for Lynch while he is gone. Also consider the fact that Lynch has yet to finish a full 16 game schedule in his two year career and this really shouldn't affect the Bills too much.
The Bills have an extremely difficult schedule this year and that will be their biggest obstacle as they look to make the playoffs for the first time in a decade. If they can get off to a strong start, maybe even shock the Patriots on opening day, who knows what will happen. I'm not going to lie, that is my most optimistic side talking. But with no meaningful games being played yet, I refuse to be overly negative and let that ruin my season before it starts. (Although that is very difficult)
Last Season: 7-9
2009 Prediction: 5-11
Miami Dolphins
Key Additions: Jake Grove (C), Jason Taylor (DE), Gibril Wilson (S), Joe Berger (G)
Key Losses: Vonnie Holliday (DE), Samson Satele (C), John Beck (QB), Andre Goodman (CB), Renaldo Hill (S), Derek Smith (LB)
Draft Picks: Vontae Davis (CB-Illinois), Pat White (QB-West Virginia), Sean Smith (CB-Utah), Patrick Turner (WR-USC), Brian Hartline (WR-OSU), John Nalbone (TE-Monmouth), Chris Clemons (S-Clemson), Andrew Gardner (T-Georgia Tech), J.D. Folsom (LB-Weber State)
The Dolphins shocked the football world last season when they went from 1-15 to 11-5 and won the AFC East. Last season did nothing but help cement the legacy of Bill Parcells even more. Cam Cameron was done after his one miserable season and Parcells brought in his guy, Tony Sparano. Without a set number one QB in the preseason, the Dolphins benefited from the Jets ridiculous move to bring in Brett Favre by signing Chad Pennington once he was released by New York. Pennington rewarded the Dolphins with his second career Comeback Player of the Year award and a playoff berth down in Miami.
It was a combination of Pennington's solid play, the Wildcat offense, Joey Porter's reemergence, and Tom Brady's injury that helped lead Miami back to the top of the division. With teams having a full off-season to prepare for the Wildcat, it might be a little bit harder for the Dolphins to pull off that stunt this season. Then again, they did draft Pat White from West Virginia so now they have a legit QB with a cannon of an arm to help run it. So far in the preseason it doesn't look that will be a real possibility for Miami.
After one failed season in Washington, Jason Taylor is back in the fold which just goes to prove that the grass isn't always greener on the other side. If he can stay healthy and play up to form, the Dolphins got a great deal by signing him after his release in Washington.
This appears to be a definite make or break season for wide receiver Ted Ginn Jr. as he heads into his third full season in the NFL. After being drafted far too high by Cam Cameron, Ginn came on last season and proved he could also be an effective receiver. Now that he is the clear cut number one receiver Miami he will have to perform like it.
The Dolphins are going to have a tough time repeating this season. Like I said above, teams have had a full off-season to study their game and prepare for it. Last season I could argue that they took teams by surprise with the Wildcat and the fact that Pennington was signed by Miami after training camp had started. Don't get me wrong, the Dolphins won't be pushovers like they were two seasons ago, but they aren't winning the division again.
Last Season: 11-5
2009 Prediction: 9-7
New England Patriots
Key Additions: Shawn Springs (CB), Greg Lewis (WR), Leigh Bodden (CB), Joey Galloway (WR), Alex Smith (TE), Andrew Walter (QB), Fred Taylor (RB), Tully Banta-Cain (LB), Chris Baker (TE), Derrick Burgess (DE)
Key Losses: LaMont Jordan (RB), Heath Evans (RB), Larry Izzo (LB), Ellis Hobbs (CB), Kelley Washington (WR), Rodney Harrison (S), Junior Seau (LB), Jabar Gaffney (WR), Deltha O'Neal (CB), Roosevelt Colvin (LB), Tedi Bruschi (LB)
Draft Picks: Patrick Chung (S-Oregon), Ron Brace (DT-Boston College), Darius Butler (CB-UConn), Sebastian Vollmer (T-Houston), Brandon Tate (WR-UNC), Tyrone McKenzie (LB-South Florida), Rich Ohrnberger (G-Penn State), George Bussey (G-Louisville), Jake Ingram (LS-Hawaii), Myron Pryor (DT-Kentucky), Julian Edelman (RB-Kent State), Darryl Richard (DT-Georgia Tech)
Coming off their 18-1 season and looking to return to the Super Bowl yet again, the Patriots
Cassel has moved on to Kansas City now that Brady is back and apparently 100% healthy. Most people still have concerns about whether or not he will return to form, but as evidenced by the trade of Cassel, the Patriots don't share those concerns. Randy Moss and Wes Welker are joined by veteran Joey Galloway which should only make their receiving corps that much more dangerous. Brady has been airing it out in the preseason so I don't expect much drop off when the regular season kicks off.
New England also added veteran back Fred Taylor to the mix as he will most likely share carries with Sammy Morris and Lawrence Maroney. The Patriots tend to use the running back by committee approach which makes the addition of Taylor that much more dangerous. Taylor's biggest concern during his career has been his durability. With him splitting time with multiple other running backs, he should be plenty healthy once the playoffs roll around.
Make no mistake about it, the Patriots are back. It says a lot about an organization that an 11-5 season is a down year, but that is just what last year was. As long as Tom Brady stays healthy, the Patriots will return to dominance and are currently my pick to win the AFC crown.
Last Season: 11-5
2009 Prediction: 13-3
New York Jets
Key Additions: Jim Leonhard (S), Larry Izzo (LB), Bart Scott (LB), Lito Sheppard (CB)
Key Losses: Laveranues Coles (WR), Mike Nugent (K), Hank Poteat (S), Abram Elam (S), David Bowens (LB), Eric Barton (LB), Kenyon Coleman (DE), Brett Ratliff (QB), Brett Favre (QB), Chris Baker (TE), Bubba Franks (TE), Ty Law (CB)
Draft Picks: Mark Sanchez (QB-USC), Shonn Greene (RB-Iowa), Matt Slauson (G-Nebraska)
So where do I start with the Jets? Well, they thought they were Super Bowl contenders and swung a trade to acquire Brett Favre last August. In doing so, they released their longtime QB Chad Pennington who subsequently led the Dolphins to the playoffs while Favre single handedly destroyed the Jets season down the stretch. As if that wasn't bad enough, it was fairly obvious from the start that Favre didn't even want to play in New York, yet the Jets didn't take that hint and flushed their season down the drain anyways. Good move.
Since that move failed, the Jets decided to start over this season and it started with the head coach. Gone is the "Mangenius" Eric Mangini and in is first time Head Coach Rex Ryan, formerly of the Baltimore Ravens. Ryan wasted no time making headlines in New York by proclaiming how the Jets will have more attitude and how he didn't come to New York to kiss Bill Belicheck's rings. While I somewhat like his style, I also think it probably wasn't the best course of action. I mean, he basically just pissed Bill Belicheck off and last time I checked, that usually never ends well for the other team.
The Jets traded up in the draft to take USC QB Mark Sanchez in the first round. Sanchez's former coach Pete Carroll argued that Sanchez should've probably stayed in school for another season but Sanchez still chose to take his game to the NFL. All eyes will be on Sanchez to see if he can handle the game, handle the New Jersey crowd, and handle the media storm that will ensue. He has shown some good things so far in the preseason but that is hardly enough to judge him on.
The Jets defense will be much more improved since that was Ryan's specialty in Baltimore. He brought over his old LB Bart Scott and S Jim Leonhard to help anchor the new look Jets defense and the team acquired CB Lito Sheppard from Philadelphia. Considering the fact that the offense will most likely struggle in at least the early parts of the season games will lean heavily on the Jets defense to hold them in contests.
The Jets will have a very solid running game to back them up however. Thomas Jones returns to New Jersey along with Leon Washington and new draft pick Shonn Greene. All three of these backs are capable of carrying the load, so if they run a committee approach it can easily wear down opposing defenses.
With the departure of Laveranues Coles at receiver, the Jets now have a glaring need at that position. Jerricho Cotchery returns as the number one receiver but he will most likely see ton more double coverage with Coles gone. His surrounding cast includes Chansi Stuckey, David Clowney, and Brad Smith. Uh…right. Good luck with that.
Even with an improved defense, I think that all of the questions on offense will lead to a season of rebuilding and frustration for the Jets. Very few rookie QB's come right into the league and find success and even fewer find that success with a bunch of number three and four receivers starting the game. Add to that the fact that TE Chris Baker is gone and Dustin Keller hasn't fully shown he can be the complete blocking TE; things could get messy for the Jets offense.
Last Season: 9-7
2009 Prediction: 6-10
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