NFL Power Rankings - End of the Preseason

Since D and S Sports debuted last January when the football season was winding down, I never got a chance to debut my NFL picks and NFL power rankings on the site. This year I worked on a new formula where my power rankings will be almost all computer calculated (I'm attempting to remove the bias from my rankings). As we've seen from the BCS, computer rankings always work out.

On a serious note, although most of the rankings will be done through a computer formula, I will still be adding my own little touch. If I know a team is better than their computer ranking says, I will no doubt make the necessary adjustment(s).

Before the NFL season starts this Thursday night in Pittsburgh, I thought it would be a good time to unveil my first batch of power rankings. Since no games have been played yet, there is no possible way for me to use my computer formula in finding out the rankings. Therefore I'm loosely basing these on last year's results, offseason activity, and my personal expectations for each team going into the 2009 NFL season.

1. Pittsburgh Steelers – It pains me to do this, but I have choice but to rank the Steelers at number one. They are the defending champs so they at least deserve to start the season in the top spot. The only real significant loss they suffered in the offseason was when slot receiver Nate Washington went down to Tennessee. In typical Steelers fashion, they have someone already waiting in the wings to take over for Washington. In this case its second year receiver Limas Sweed. Assuming he can actually catch the ball this time around, the Steelers really shouldn't miss a beat without Washington.

2. New England Patriots – The Patriots probably had the biggest upgrade this offseason when Tom Brady came back from injury. Even without Brady they somehow managed a solid 11-5 record with Matt Cassel running the show. Cassel headed off to Kansas City for a huge payday so it's now the Tom Brady show again in New England. Assuming he stays healthy and doesn't have any ill effects from his injury, there is no reason to think that New England won't return to dominance against this season. I'd say as a Buffalo fan I'm not looking forward to it, but it's about 100 times more embarrassing to lose to a Matt Cassel led team than getting blown out by Brady, Moss, and Welker. At least now there is that built in excuse.

3. Tennessee Titans – The Titans collapsed last year once the playoffs rolled around but I have a feeling they will be an even better team this season. Sure they lost Albert Haynesworth, but they were also able to use that money wisely and I'm sure the rotation they now have to replace Haynesworth will do a fine job. The Titans season could still come crashing down if Kerry Collins goes out for an extended period of time and Vince Young is forced to take over. As long as Collins is healthy, the Titans are in good shape. It's going to be a brawl atop of the AFC this season.

4. Indianapolis Colts – If I were betting on who would win the AFC South this season, it would literally come down to a coin flip. I like Peyton Manning and the entire Indianapolis offense, but I think the smash mouth style of the Titans would win out. I'm fairly certain that they will split their season series with each home team grabbing the win. Actually, I'd bet that Tennessee will definitely win their home game and the game in Indy could be a toss up. It's not like Lucas Oil Stadium is really a huge home field advantage for the Colts. I also don't know what to make of the Colts after they inexplicitly lost at San Diego in the Wild Card round last January. For now I'll leave them at four but I'm not exactly positive on that.

5. Philadelphia Eagles – Just so we're on record with this, even before the Michael Vick signing, the Eagles were my pick to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl this season. If anything, the Vick signing might have actually hurt their chances. Sure he might be an added weapon on the field, but it's also an added headache and circus that the Eagles didn't absolutely need. If they can weather the storm and continue to improve, then I'll feel confident in my pick. They upgraded their offensive line, backup running back position, wide receiver position, and this is all on top of a team that was minutes away from advancing to the Super Bowl last season.

6. New York Giants – The Giants were definitely affected by the actions of Plaxico Burress last season. Now that he is officially gone (and headed to prison), the Giants have had a full offseason to work on replacing Burress. The Giants wisely locked up Eli Manning with a huge contract extension and will continue to build around him and their bruising running game. As of right now I have the Eagles finishing better than them in the division but there is a very good chance it comes down to a late Week 14 matchup between the two rivals.

7. San Diego Chargers – The Chargers weren't exactly deserving of the playoffs last season when they finished with an 8-8 record and qualified for the postseason above an 11-5 New England team. Unfortunately, sometimes that happens in sports when there is an overly weak division. The Chargers at least showed they belonged once the playoffs started by defeating the Colts at home before losing to Pittsburgh in the second round. Without Shawne Merriman and an ailing LaDanian Tomlinson, the Chargers were forced to air it out last season which resulted in Phillip River's best season as a passer. This year both players are back, 100% healthy, and ready to prove themselves again without breakout seasons. That is, assuming Merriman doesn't land a suspension for his latest incident. If the Chargers don't win the West this year, everyone involved should be fired.

8. New Orleans Saints – The Saints are another team that I expect big things out of this year. Drew Brees is one of the best quarterbacks in the game right now and when a team has that, you can never fully count them out. Pierre Thomas emerged as a legit running back last season and he should provide a nice one-two punch with Reggie Bush. Gregg Williams takes over the defense in New Orleans and while he will forever be etched in my head as one of the worst head coaches I've ever seen, I will admit that the man knows his defense and should have the New Orleans squad dramatically improved this season.

9. Arizona Cardinals – Let's be honest. If Arizona wasn't in the NFC West, they probably wouldn't have even made the playoffs last season. I give them all the credit in the world for what they accomplished once the playoffs started, but I can't get over that simple fact which is why they are starting the season ranked ninth. They will most likely win their division again, but I don't think they are better than the teams listed above. If my highly scientific computer formula states otherwise once the season starts, so be it. One thing that is for sure in Arizona, Larry Fitzgerald is definitely the best receiver in the game right now.

10. Baltimore Ravens – The Ravens shocked the NFL world last season when they went all the way to the AFC Championship game with rookie quarterback Joe Flacco leading the way. They had an extremely tough defense and a solid running game to back him up, but he still got the job done in many difficult situations. The Ravens are looking to build on last season and take control of the AFC Central, although that means they would have to defeat the Steelers at least once, something they couldn't do in three tries last season. The Ravens lost their defensive coordinator Rex Ryan to the NY Jets but the overall philosophy should stay the same and I don't expect a dramatic drop-off. Plus it's hard to count the Ravens out when they have the best running back in the league on their roster. What? He isn't even starting anymore? Wow, I never would've saw that coming.

11. Atlanta Falcons – Much like the Ravens last season, the Falcons made a huge turnaround and qualified for the playoffs with their own rookie quarterback, Matt Ryan. The Falcons fell short in the wild card round but that shouldn't take away from what Ryan and rookie Head Coach Mike Smith accomplished. When both came to Atlanta a little over a year ago, the Falcons were a complete mess as an organization. They were reeling from the Michael Vick saga and the fact that Bobby Petrino couldn't even last one full season before completely quitting on the team. Ryan returns this year with Michael Turner leading the way at running back and the addition of future Hall of Fame tight end Tony Gonzalez. The pieces are in place for the Falcons to build on last season and advance much further, it will just be a matter of whether or not Ryan can continue to grow as a successful NFL quarterback.

12. Green Bay Packers – I have a good feeling about Green Bay this season. I really liked how Aaron Rodgers played last season and I would guess he is only going to be better this season. The defense is switching to a 3-4 scheme so much of their success this season will hinge on whether or not they can adapt. Dom Capers is a good defensive coach however and I have confidence that he'll get the job done. If anything, I'm rooting for Green Bay just to take down Minnesota. I'm also hoping there are a ton of Favre jersey fires and batteries thrown his way when the Vikings visit Green Bay. Favre going to Minnesota was the biggest stab in the back towards the Packers and their fans. If they aren't outraged by this, I'd check to see if they still have a pulse.

13. Miami Dolphins – I have the Dolphins pretty low for a defending division champion for one simple reason: I don't like them. Oh I'm kidding of course Dolphins fans…but seriously…I'm not. Chad Pennington is still the QB and last time I checked, he still has a noodle arm. The Wildcat will no longer catch people by surprise and Ted Ginn Jr is still the number one receiver. But not all is terrible with Miami. Bill Parcells is still running the show and Tony Sparano appears to be a real deal coach. I have no doubt that I'll be bumping Miami up these rankings fairly fast, I just figured I'd get my cheap shots in now before the season starts.

14. Dallas Cowboys – There isn't much I like about Dallas this season. Fourteen is fairly low for them so we'll see whether or not my criticism is justified early on. Two early home games against the Giants and Panthers should help settle that debate. If they lose both and start out 3-2 before the bye, they will most likely be right where I have them pegged. If they win one or both of those games and hit the bye at 4-1 or 5-0, I'll be moving them much higher in between bites of crow. If they are worse than 3-2, which means they have lost to Tampa Bay, Denver, or Kansas City…well…bad times will be had by all Cowboys fans.

15. Carolina Panthers – I have the Panthers right around the middle of the pack despite being a much better team. The defense is tough, running game borders on great, and they have enough veterans to help lead the team. The one thing that scares the living crap out of me when it comes to the Panthers is Jake Delhomme. When you think of the playoffs last year and Delhomme's performance, two words come to mind: epic meltdown. Don't remember? Let me refresh your memory. After finishing the regular season 12-4 and hosting Arizona at home for the playoffs (keep in mind that Arizona hadn't won on the East Coast for the entire season), Delhomme proceeded to go 17 for 34, 1 touchdown, and 5 interceptions in a 33-13 loss. I just wonder how he'll mentally bounce back from such a horrible performance in a big game.

16. Minnesota Vikings – There are only two ways that I enjoy the Minnesota Vikings season in 2009. 1) They go 0-16. 2) Brett Favre misses a significant amount of time during the season and the Vikings are stuck with Sage Rosenfels or Tarvaris Jackson. You know, the QB's that completely got shafted by the Vikings during their pursuit of Favre. Yeah, those guy. I'd love to see their season hinge upon someone who was dumped for Favre before he could even play a meaningful minute this season. Once Dick Jauron gets fired, I'd say Brad Childress will definitely hold the title as the worst active coach in the league.

17. Houston Texans – Houston is an intriguing team. Matt Schaub can be a very good QB when he isn't constantly hurt. I have a crush on Steve Slaton and targeted him in every single fantasy draft I did and yet I managed to not get him in every single league. Andre Johnson is probably the second best receiver in the game right now (behind Fitzgerald) but some people still don't realize it because he plays in Houston. Mario Williams continues to get better on defense and make the Texans look smart for passing on Reggie Bush. I'd actually say they are poised to make the playoffs if it wasn't for the fact that they are in the AFC South. Unless they manage some huge upsets over Tennessee and Indianapolis, I see them falling short of the playoffs once again. Sorry Houston.

18. Jacksonville Jaguars – The Jags had a truly miserable season last year. You can tell a lot about a season when a team's best wide receiver has done a line of coke for every reception. But seriously, the Jags should be much improved this season. Of course, they have to stay healthy to do so. Like in the case of Seattle last season, I don't think they will be nearly as banged up this season and should be much improved. I think Jack Del Rio's a very good coach and is the right man for the job. I just wish most of Jacksonville knew about this, then again, that would require the fans to actually attend the games.

19. Chicago Bears – I know I run the risk of taking quite a bit of heat on this, but I really don't think the acquisition of Jay Cutler is going to automatically make Chicago a playoff team. If they had Jay Cutler during the season they went to the Super Bowl, there is a fairly good chance they would've defeated Indianapolis and been the champs. It's a well known fact that Rex Grossman single handedly held that team back during the course of that season. However, this isn't the same Bears team. Brian Urlacher, Lance Briggs, and Tommie Harris are all a little bit older. While that may not seem like a big deal, it really is in football. Not to mention that the Bears offense isn't all that great. Cutler's two best targets are his running back and tight end, both of which are very good I might add, but that leaves almost nobody at wide receiver. Their number one receiver is Devin Hester, who wasn't even a receiver coming out of college. Trust me, I know Hester is a great athlete and a legit threat, but it wouldn't fill me with confidence if he were the number one receiver on my team. I won't even bring up the fact that besides some great fantasy stats, Cutler hasn't done a whole lot of winning during his NFL career so far.

20. Washington Redskins – I don't see the Redskins going anywhere this season. Albert Haynesworth is a huge upgrade for the defensive line, but they were far more than one player away last season. I'd probably have them as a divison favorite if they were in the NFC West, but they aren't, so I don't. Instead they have six games against the Cowboys, Giants, and Eagles. That automatically puts them in a hole before they've even taken a snap this season. The success of the Redskins will depend highly on Jason Campbell. If he can perform well, continue to grow within the system, and shake off the fact that his employer openly lobbied for multiple other QB's to take his place, the Redskins might have some success this season after all.

21. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Tampa Bay finally fired Coach Jon Gruden after last season's disappointing finish. Also gone is starting QB Jeff Garcia. The Bucs drafted Josh Freeman in the first round but so far it's going to be the Byron Leftwich show in Tampa Bay. I don't know if I always agree with playing the rookie QB right away, but I don't see what it would hurt in this case. Leftwich failed in Jacksonville and Atlanta before getting his Super Bowl ring with Pittsburgh, but he didn't really do a whole lot to earn it. I'm fairly certain he is only holding the spot for this season until Freeman officially takes over, so why delay the inevitable?

22. Denver Broncos – In my AFC West preview, I predicted that Denver would finish the season 6-10. That was before I say Kyle Orton's debut against San Francisco. Uhhhh…what? Three interceptions in four series? That is quite the batting average you got there Kyle. I've said it a million times before, but Chris Simms should get a shot at the starting job. He has to be better than Orton…right? RIGHT?!?

23. Seattle Seahawks – Seattle should be a much better team than they were last year for the simple fact that they were ravaged with more injuries than any NFL team ever. Ok, I made that stat up, but I have a feeling it was pretty close. The new coaching staff should be more centered on the run which could mean good things for Julius Jones and Edgerrin James' Corpse. It should also take the pressure off Matt Hasselbeck and hopefully keep him off his back the majority of the time. But when he does drop back, he'll have one of the better receivers running routes for him now in T.J. Houshmanzadeh.

24. Buffalo Bills – Buffalo had about the worst preseason I could imagine. They had an extra game, five total, and still didn't manage one touchdown from the starting offense. I realize that Terrell Owens missed all but one game, but still, that is pathetic. The Bills must have agreed since they canned offensive coordinator Turk Schonert last week after the final game, but that doesn't mean things will be alright in Buffalo. They have a tough schedule and word on the street is that Ralph Wilson will be looking to fire Dick Jauron if the Bills get off to another bad start.

25. San Francisco 49ers – If it wasn't for the QB position, I'd easily have the Niners challenging for the NFC West crown. I really like the coaching style of Mike Singletary and I was really impressed with their style of play after he took over last season. Unfortunately, to win in the NFL you need a semi-decent QB and I think the Niners are severely lacking in that department. I mean no disrespect towards Shaun Hill or Alex Smith…wait a second, yes I do…wait…where was I? Ugh…nevermind.

26. Cincinnati Bengals – I have no idea what to make of the Bengals. If Carson Palmer stays healthy, they are one of those sneaky teams that will steal some wins when it counts. I don't see them getting anywhere close to the playoffs though. For one, their division is way too tough with the Ravens and Steelers battling for first place. And two, they still have a lot of holes on that roster. Maybe Cedric Benson continues his turnaround and does well this season. Maybe Chad Ochocinco actually performs as well as he thinks he can. Maybe Marvin Lewis doesn't run the team into the ground. There are a lot of maybes surrounding the 2009 Bengals.

27. NY Jets – The Jets are ridiculous. They take a chance on bringing Brett Favre in last season and then act shocked when their season goes down in flames as he is blindly chucking up interceptions that literally destroy their season. We're talking about a QB that including last year, has thrown for 88 touchdowns and 84 interceptions in the past four seasons. Out of the top 13 QB's in touchdowns thrown in the last four seasons, Favre has 19 more interceptions than the second most. Meanwhile, he has thrown for only two more touchdowns than Carson Palmer, who has played in 15 less games during that time span. Terrible…just terrible. The Jets got everything they had coming to them.

28. Kansas City Chiefs – As stated in my AFC West preview, I really don't think the Chiefs were as bad as their record indicated last season. I also think they will begin improving with Scott Pioli now working in the front office. However, I completely disagree with their huge contract extension for Matt Cassel. It wasn't a terrible trade, but he really should've had to earn it a little more. There has been talk during the preseason that Cassel might not even start for KC, yet he has that huge deal now. That could really come back to haunt them if he doesn't perform well in the coming years.

29. St Louis Rams – The Rams are currently enduring a slow rebuilding process, however I feel that they are on the right track. Things went south for St Louis the past few seasons and it was going to take a dramatic change to turn things around. That is where Steve Spagnulo comes into the picture. He has quickly changed the culture around Rams camp and things are looking up. It's not going to happen overnight, but at least they are pointed in the right direction.

30. Oakland Raiders – When the highlight of the preseason for your team is the head coach punching out one of his assistants, you know you're talking about Oakland. If anything, they are no doubt a source of quality entertainment and a team that always makes me look at the bright side as the Bills start going down in flames around November. The Raiders might actually improve this season but that depends on how well JaMarcus Russell plays at QB. Free agent acquisition Jeff Garcia was a surprise cut at the end of the preseason so now Russell has nobody challenging him for the job. We'll see how wise that decision turns out to be.

31. Cleveland Browns – The Browns are terrible. Hey, let's fire one failed assistant of Bill Belichick and bring in another failed assistant. Oh, and that situation you have at QB? Let's have them battle it out in the preseason, that will work out well. What exactly was the point of trading up into the first round to get Brady Quinn if they were going to consistently have him battle with one hit wonder Derek Anderson? Is Quinn really that bad? Is that why all those other teams passed on him in the draft? Well…yes. I guess that is solved now.

32. Detroit Lions – I'd argue that the Lions are actually better than the Browns right now, but since they haven't played any meaningful games yet, I can't fully justify that statement. We'll have to wait until after Week One to figure that out. What? They play New Orleans in Week One? Crap.

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