NFL Picks - Week 1
The time is finally here. It's the opening weekend of the 2009 NFL season. My first batch of power rankings were unveiled earlier this week and now come my picks for Week One.
And now without any further rambling on, here are my picks for Week One (aka The Most Anticipated Weekend EVER!).
Tennessee Titans @ Pittsburgh Steelers
No joke, I don't think there is a single football fan outside the Cleveland area that dislikes Pittsburgh more than me. So as you can tell, this football season has gotten off to a terrible start since I had to rank the Steelers number one in my power rankings and now I have to pick them in the opener. You might be thinking that I could very well just pick Tennessee, but the numbers are so in Pittsburgh's favor that even I can't pick against them.
Since 2004 the defending Super Bowl champs have opened the season on a Thursday night and since 2004 the defending champs have won every single time. That's a pretty a strong stat in favor of Pittsburgh. But I also found out recently via Adam Schefter's Twitter page that dating back to the 2003 season, Pittsburgh has won six straight openers. When you consider these two factors, there is no way I can pick Tennessee.
Miami Dolphins @ Atlanta Falcons
Conventional wisdom would state that if the Falcons succeeded with a rookie QB and now have added a Hall Of Fame TE, they should be better. Conventional wisdom also states that gimmick offenses usually don't succeed after all the NFL teams have had a full offseason to study and prepare for them.
This is why I'm picking Atlanta in this game. I don't think Miami will be nearly as effective as they were last year and I think Atlanta is going to be much better. I'm fairly certain about this one too. In fact, if it weren't for New England playing Buffalo or the Lions playing at all, I'd make this my weekly pick in my eliminator pool.
Denver Broncos @ Cincinnati Bengals
I don't have much faith in the Broncos this season. Hey, it's all great that they hired the former Patriots offensive coordinator and it's even better that he wears those sloppy gray hoodies just like Bill Bellicheck, but that doesn't mean he is as good of a coach. And it doesn't change the fact that Kyle Orton is the starting quarterback for Denver.
The Bengals aren't much better and in fact are considerably worse if Carson Palmer isn't completely healthy and ready to lead the team. This has the makings of one of those painful games that are extremely difficult to watch and conveniently the one my local CBS will air on Sunday. Great.
Minnesota Vikings @ Cleveland Browns
Here, I'll just get it out of the way to save FOX some time this weekend.
Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre. Favre.
There, I hope FOX isn't too upset that I stole their thunder. Despite having Captain Interception as their starting QB, the Vikings should win this game by at least 20 points. I mean, we're talking about the Browns here. I can only imagine that when the schedule came out fantasy owners of Adrian Peterson immediately circled it on their calendar while drooling uncontrollably. But hey, maybe this is the year that Brady Quinn finally resembles an NFL QB. You know, assuming Eric Mangini announces a starter by kickoff.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts
The Colts and Jaguars have historically played some pretty close games and this one shouldn't be any different. The Jaguars will be much improved over last season's debacle, but not enough to defeat Indianapolis on opening day. Unlike last year, Peyton Manning comes into this season 100% healthy and ready to perform on a high level. The only way I see Jacksonville winning this game is if they force a couple of early turnovers and MJD runs wild on the Colts defense. Neither of which are farfetched.
Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints
This game has the makings of one of those games that destroy about 838,847,939 different survivor/eliminator leagues if Detroit pulls off the win. Nobody is picking Detroit, right? I really don't care how much they have improved over last season. The only way I see Detroit winning this game is if Drew Brees misses his flight and watches the game from home. Or he blows out his ACL and MCL on the first drive and also destroys every single fantasy league on the planet. Essentially this game has catastrophic possibilities if the Lions win. When you look at it like that, even Lions fans should be rooting for the Saints this week.
Dallas Cowboys @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Cowboys should really have no problem with Tampa Bay. Byron Leftwich isn't a very good quarterback and he doesn't have the greatest team surrounding him. Combined with a rookie head coach, the Bucs are one of three teams to have already fired their offensive coordinator. I don't think any of those three teams will finish the season on a high note.
The Bucs defense has typically been good, but they now enter their first season in a long time without Monte Kiffin running the show. They have also changed up the roster quite a bit since relieving Jon Gruden of his coaching duties. Really, if Dallas loses this game it will signal some very bad things for the Cowboys.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Carolina Panthers
Much like Dallas but not quite to that extent, the Eagles should be able to take on Carolina. I have them ranked fairly high in my rankings but that is only until I see whether or not Jake Delhomme can come back after imploding in the playoffs last season. I mostly like Philadelphia because they were my early NFC pick for the Super Bowl and I can't see my Super Bowl pick losing to the Panthers on opening day.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Baltimore Ravens
Another popular eliminator pick, the Ravens should have zero issues disposing of the Chiefs on opening day. They are at home, they are clearly the better team, and the Chiefs are in the same boat as Tampa Bay since they have a new coach and have fired their offensive coordinator.
The Ravens passing game has looked very impressive so far in the preseason so there is a solid chance that the Ravens improve from last season. In 2008, Joe Flacco was told to manage the game and basically lean on his defense and running game for support. So far this year, it looks a lot like he will be asked to throw a bit more and put up a ton more points. I'm anxious to see if he can take the next step this season.
I really hope Andre Johnson lights it up this week and every week in the 2009 NFL season. Why? Because I have him in at least three different fantasy leagues this year. It's going to be tough against the Jets since their one strong point is defense, however they should still win the game with relative ease.
I haven't hated what I've seen from Mark Sanchez so far, but I think the Jets offense as a whole will take some time to come around and it won't happen right away. Then again, the Jets could be poised for the upset. If they put the ball in Leon Washington's hands enough times, you never know what can happen.
Washington Redskins @ NY Giants
The Giants and Redskins renew their rivalry on opening day and it should be a good matchup. I expect this game to be relatively close, but the Giants should win by at least 10 points in the end. Simply put: they are the better team. Jason Campbell will be pressured all day by the Giants defense and the Redskins defense won't do nearly enough to contain Eli and company. Despite now having any major receiving threats, I think the Giants offense will be fine.
San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals start their NFC Title defense at home against division rival San Francisco. The Cardinals have all the makings of the Super Bowl loser who can't regain their swagger and struggle mightily during the following season. For the same reason listed above in the Houston/Jets matchup, I really hope Larry Fitzgerald tears it up this season. The Cardinals really should win this game, but I wouldn't be completely shocked if the Niners came out of Glendale with an early upset.
St Louis Rams @ Seattle Seahawks
Seattle begins this season against the one team that was more pathetic in the NFC West than them last season. With a new coaching staff in place in Seattle, they can officially begin to forget about the nightmare that was the 2008 season. The Rams are on the right path through rebuilding but this contest really shouldn't be close at all.
Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers
I must be the only person not on the Bears bandwagon. I realize that they now have a competent quarterback and could win the NFC, but that particular quarterback has yet to win anything in the NFL and now has Devin Hester as his number one receiver. It looks like Matt Forte and Greg Olsen are going to be some busy guys this year.
Meanwhile in Green Bay, it's been a year since Favre-gate and the Packers look like one of the better teams in the NFC. They are definitely my pick to win the NFC North and I would personally be shocked if they don't, despite the two new guys in Minnesota and Chicago.
Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots
The Bills are screwed. I've spent several months since the schedule came out trying to talk myself into a Week One upset in Foxboro on National TV and after this preseason, there is no way I can do it. The Bills have looked dreadful so far in the exhibition season and I don't see any reason why they will be better. Instead of firing Dick Jauron and trying to correct the issues with the team, they signed Terrell Owens and expected that to solve their problems. Although, it did help ticket sales maintain their high level so I guess it was a "success" in terms of what the Bills are trying to accomplish.
Another reason New England will cruise to victory in Week One? The Patriots are 16-2 against the Bills since the 2000 season. This redefines the word "domination". Honestly as a Bills fan, I don't even get mad when the Patriots run the Bills over. It's just something I expect and I hope it happens as quickly and painless as possible. I'm thinking that these types of games should be referred to as "Prostate Exam" games from this point going forward. In fact, excuse me while I email that idea to Bill Simmons.
San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders
The Raiders haven't defeated the Chargers since September 28, 2003.
That wasn't a joke. It's a fact. The Chargers were up 31-17 in that game before Rich Gannon hit Alvis Whitted for a 36 yard touchdown pass to make it 31-24. A few minutes later Charlie Garner scampered on a 24 yard touchdown run to send it to overtime before Sebastian Janikowski made a game winning 46 yard field goal. Players who starred in that game: Drew Brees, Jerry Rice, Tim Brown, Steve Christie, Rod Woodson, and Tyrone Wheatley.
There wasn't much to the above paragraph. I just wanted to point out the fact that Oakland hasn't defeated San Diego in a very long time and they won't be doing so this Monday night either.
Last Week:N/A
NFL Season: 0-0
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