NFL Picks - Week 2

It usually takes me a few weeks to get into the flow of picking games so you can only imagine how pleased I was with a solid 13-3 record in Week One. Either the NFL is becoming more predictable or I might actually know what I'm talking about. Then again, I could've just gotten lucky so I probably shouldn't get so cocky after one decent week.

Before I get to my picks for Week Two, there is something I want to cover very quickly: uniform changes. Why do teams change their uniforms? Mostly to make more money on merchandise. However, I think there is another reason for changing uniforms. Sometimes a franchise is so snake bitten and changing the uniform is kind of like a fresh start. Don't believe me? Let's take a look.

New England Patriots: When I was growing up on football, the Patriots were terrible. In fact, they only made the postseason three times from 1980-1992. They did make the Super Bowl back in 1985, but the game wasn't even close as the 1985 Chicago Bears destroyed the Patriots 46-10. What happened in 1993? They changed the logo and uniform and then proceeded to make the playoffs in 1994, 1996, 1997, 1998, 2001, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2007. Oh yeah, they also won the Super Bowl three times this decade.

Denver Broncos: While the Broncos weren't nearly as embarrassing as the Patriots, they didn't have a ton of success with their old "Orange Crush" uniform/logo design. Yes, they did have several historic moments in these uniforms, but they also lost three Super Bowls, including defeats of 55-10 and 42-10. The Broncos then radically changed their overall look in 1997 and subsequently won back to back Super Bowls. Coincidence? Maybe. They haven't won a championship since that time, but it's still a pretty interesting scenario.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Now the Buccaneers, they are a different story altogether. They were by far the worst franchise in the NFL for the longest time. The Buccaneers represented with Bucco Bruce from their inception into the league until 1996. In those 20 years, four playoff appearances. In 1997, the Buccaneers decided they needed a change and switched over to the uniform they currently wear. The result? Playoffs in 1997, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2005, and 2007. They also won their division in 1999, 2002, 2005, and 2007. Division championships in the first 20 years with Bucco Bruce? Two. And to top it off, Tampa Bay won Super Bowl XXXVII in 2002.

These three teams are obviously extreme examples because there are currently 32 teams in the NFL and many go through uniform changes. These three stand out to me because they are probably the most extreme case of changing a logo/uniform and all had success immediately afterwards.

Why do I bring this up? Back in 2002 the Buffalo Bills switched their uniform over to their current design, one that very few fans actually appreciate. Since that uniform change the Bills have had exactly one winning season (2004) which still resulted in them missing the playoffs. Something has to change at One Bills Drive and since it's not going to the owner, general manager, or head coach anytime soon, I think a uniform change is the next logical step. Granted what I'm going to say isn't a wholesale change because they used to wear the uniform, but the Bills need to make their current throwback uniforms the permanent uniforms. I've heard nothing but good things from the fans in terms of their blue throwbacks and the new white ones that debuted for the 50th anniversary season of the Bills and AFL have gotten rave reviews. Dear Buffalo, please please please get this done.

Ok, I'm done with my own personal little rant. Let's get to the picks.


Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons

Just for the record, this is what I said in my power rankings heading into Week One:

The one thing that scares the living crap out of me when it comes to the Panthers is Jake Delhomme. When you think of the playoffs last year and Delhomme's performance, two words come to mind: epic meltdown. Don't remember? Let me refresh your memory. After finishing the regular season 12-4 and hosting Arizona at home for the playoffs (keep in mind that Arizona hadn't won on the East Coast for the entire season), Delhomme proceeded to go 17 for 34, 1 touchdown, and 5 interceptions in a 33-13 loss. I just wonder how he'll mentally bounce back from such a horrible performance in a big game.

I suppose to answer my own question, you don't. The Panthers had faith in Delhomme despite his meltdown and gave him $20 million in guaranteed money to continue as the Panthers QB. Right now that is looking like a huuuuuge mistake. As a Bills fan, I pray Delhomme is still the starter when the Bills come to town.

The Falcons looked sharp in Week One and I'm thinking it will be a two team fight between them and the Saints for the division title this year. They handled the Dolphins pretty nicely and didn't even get a solid rushing performance out of Michael Turner. Assuming it was a one week glitch and Turner picks his game up, the Falcons are going to be a tough team to beat.

Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions

The Vikings get another cupcake game to start the Brett Favre era as they travel to Detroit to play Matthew Stafford and the Lions. This game could go a few different ways. Brett Favre could throw the ball up and down the field like Drew Brees did (not likely), or Adrian Peterson could go off on the Detroit defense like he tends to do. In the two games against Detroit last season, Peterson ran for over 100 yards each time. One way it isn't going, in the win column for the Lions. Seriously, what should the Detroit defense do? They could stack up against the run but then you run the risk of Favre exploiting the defense (again, not likely). Obviously that might not be the case since Brett Favre is far from being Drew Brees, but with Percy Harvin running around in the backfield things could get a little iffy for Detroit. Yes, in several leagues I've bumped Percy Harvin into the starting lineup. He can catch and run and the Vikings will surely use him more as the season progresses (I hope).

Cincinnati Bengals @ Green Bay Packers

I know I covered this in the rankings, but I really feel bad for the Bengals fans. As a Bills fan/someone very familiar with gut wrenching defeats, I felt for the fans as Brandon Stokely ran down the field for the game winning score. I've personally witnessed two opening day defeats in the last seconds from the stands of Ralph Wilson Stadium. There is almost no feeling quite as bad. You've spent all summer planning for the day, all morning tailgating, all afternoon screaming your head off and celebrating, only to see the other team snatch the victory away and celebrate on your team's field. It's a terrible feeling. And if you don't know what I'm talking about, you should be glad.

It doesn't get any easier for the Bengals. Now they travel to Green Bay and face a much better team than the Kyle Orton led Broncos. Orton didn't do a whole lot to impress me, but Aaron Rodgers did. He didn't have the gaudy numbers, but all things considered, really showed his worth in the win Sunday night. I fully expect him to bounce back fantasy wise and put up some very good numbers against the Bengals. If he doesn't, I might be screwed.









Ummm...Ok....Let's just move on.

Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans

You know, I don't know what to say about the Texans. It seems like every single year everybody (including myself) thinks this is the year Houston takes the leap and finishes with an above .500 record. This is the year they challenge for a playoff spot. Then they open at home against a somewhat depleted Jets team with a new head coach and a rookie QB, and they just suck it up to the max. On top of that, Tennessee has had extra time to rest up and prepare for their home opener. I don't even see this game being close. I'd be shocked if the Titans didn't win by at least seven points.

Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs

This might be the hardest game to pick. The Chiefs shocked me by hanging with the Ravens for the majority of the game despite missing their new franchise QB Matt Cassel. The Raiders shocked me by hanging with the Chargers at all and seeing that they were within a few minutes of actually winning, I'm very impressed with Oakland right now. So how do I pick this game? I have no idea.

Kansas City is at home and will have home field advantage. But they also might be starting Brodie Croyle again at QB and he currently owns a 0-9 record as a starter.

I'm going with the Chiefs but only because they are the home team. I'm literally 50/50 on this pick.

New England Patriots @ NY Jets

I gotta go with the Patriots but I'm almost expecting an upset by the Jets. Maybe it's because I just watched the Patriots struggle against the Bills or maybe it's because the Jets defense looked stronger than advertised down in Houston. If the Bills defense was able to pressure Tom Brady as much as they did, Rex Ryan and his crew must be licking their chops.

Then again, the Patriots were actually the team that lost to Buffalo 31-0 in a season opener and then won the Super Bowl that year. They still won the game and that's all that really counts, so maybe I shouldn't be looking too much into their Monday night performance. Last time I checked, Bill Belicheck is a pretty good defensive coach and Mark Sanchez is still a rookie QB. Sanchez looked absolutely flustered when he faced Baltimore in the preseason and I'm sure that tape is being played quite a bit this week.

New Orleans Saints @ Philadelphia Eagles

My initial gut reaction in this game was to pick Philadelphia on the basis of them being at home and having their rabid fans at their side. While the game is still at home and their fans will still be as rabid as ever, they are facing the possibility of not suiting up Donovan McNabb. Until he proves me otherwise, I have no faith in Kevin Kolb as a starting QB in this league. The Eagles could very well play Jeff Garcia, but I don't know how likely that is seeing he was signed less than a week before the game. One thing is for sure; don't expect another six touchdowns from Drew Brees this Sunday.

St. Louis Rams @ Washington Redskins

Even the Redskins can't screw this up. Washington looked pretty terrible last week against the Giants in a game that wasn't nearly as close as the score would indicate. However, the Rams looked even worse against Seattle. St Louis was the only team to get shutout in the opening weekend and therefore remains the only team to have no scored this season. The problem with Washington wasn't their defense, but it was the offense and specifically the play of Jason Campbell. This week he returns home and faces a fairly week opponent.

Last week, the Rams defense allowed the Seahawks to run for 167 yards on 34 combined carries for an average of 4.9 yards per carry. This week they face an even tougher test as they try and stop Clinton Portis. I honestly don't see it happening. Sure there have been upsets before, but Washington would really have to try to lose this game.

Arizona Cardinals @ Jacksonville Jaguars

For me, this game comes down to one factor. Last year before winning at Carolina in the divisional round of the playoffs, the Cardinals were winless when playing on the East Coast. While the win in Carolina did debunk the myth that they couldn't win at all on the East Cost, I still don't like their odds.

That one factor would help me decide this game even if the Cardinals were in Super Bowl form. Luckily for Jacksonville, they are far from it. The hungover Cardinals struggled in their home opener and eventually lost to San Francisco as Old Man Warner looked like the complete opposite of the player I drafted on my keeper league team. So in a battle that will involve the Cardinals, Jaguars, and the black tarp that covers half the stadium, Jacksonville should move to 1-1 this Sunday.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Buffalo Bills

Last week Tampa Bay fell in their home/season opener to Dallas, 34-21. Despite the score being somewhat close, it really wasn't. Tampa Bay scored a touchdown with 1:28 remaining in the game to make it look respectable. Their defense as an overall unit allowed Dallas to rack up 462 total yards, including over 300 in the air as Tony Romo shredded the Tampa Bay secondary all day long. The one bright spot for the Buccaneers has to be their offense. Byron Leftwich finished the day 25 for 41, 276 yards, and one touchdown. Cadillac Williams and Derrick Ward combined for 159 yards rushing and one touchdown each on 25 combined carries.

Buffalo began their Monday night opener with extremely low expectations. Nobody gave them a fighting chance to stay within 20 points of New England. They led for most of the game until they unleashed their late game collapse on the Monday night

audience once again and New England walked away with a 25-24 victory. Instead of focusing on the negatives, I'm going to present a few positives for Buffalo. Trent Edwards finished the night 15 for 25, 212 yards, two touchdowns, and a QB rating of 114.1. This was easily his best game in terms of opponent, playing on the road, and playing in front of a national TV audience. Fred Jackson did his best to help everyone forget who Marshawn Lynch is by chipping in 57 yards on 15 carries and catching five passes for 83 yards and one touchdown. While Terrell Owens and Lee Evans weren't major factors in terms of stats, New England was constantly doubling those receivers up or at the very least, devoting safety help over the top to prevent the two receivers from making a big impact. Because of this, Edwards was able to exploit the New England defense with shorter passes and effectively move the ball up the field, including his two touchdowns to Jackson and rookie tight end Shawn Nelson.

The Bills defense was far from great, but they exceeded almost every expectation in terms of shutting down the New England offense and keeping them out of the end zone. Brady threw for almost 400 yards but he attempted to throw the ball 53 times and his only two touchdowns came late in the fourth quarter. The larger passing numbers are also because the Patriots couldn't run the ball at all on Buffalo. Laurence Maroney, Fred Taylor, Tom Brady, and Kevin Faulk all combined to run for 73 yards on 23 carries (3.2 avg) and one goal line touchdown from Taylor.

This game marks the home opener for Buffalo and a game they should win. Byron Leftwich isn't Tom Brady, nor are his receivers Randy Moss and Wes Welker. Tampa Bay's defense allowed three long touchdowns through the air last Sunday and now has to face the tandem of Owens and Evans. They can either allow them to play one on one, or they can devote help like New England did and watch Edwards dink and dunk the ball up and down the field. Edwards ran the no-huddle effectively enough to noticeably wear down the New England defensive line and will have a much easier time running it this week at home where he doesn't have to deal with an opposing crowd. I know I'm sometimes up and down with the Bills, but I said before the Patriots game that the Bills should still beat Tampa Bay, and now I fully expect it after watching Week One. I've got Trent Edwards in my starting lineup for fantasy and I'll surely have my popcorn ready this Sunday.

Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers

Even if it is Week Two, who would've thought that we'd be discussing a game between Seattle and San Francisco for sole possession of first place in the NFC West? Like I've said several times before the season started, I've been impressed and continue to be impressed with the job Mike Singletary has done since he was promoted to Head Coach of the 49ers. The Niners are going to be a frisky team this year and who the hell knows what will happen in such a crap division.

I try to keep my picks simple (never mind the four paragraphs I wrote about the Bills/Bucs game above) so I tried to find the one factor that will make a difference in this game. No, it isn't home field advantage. I think it's an established fact by now that home field advantage is almost completely dead. For me it's the QB position: Matt Hasselbeck > Shaun Hill.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Chicago Bears

I'll be rooting for the Bears, but I have zero faith that they can beat Pittsburgh. Jay Cutler struggled mightily in his first game for the Bears and now he faces probably the best defense in the league. Simply put, if he had trouble with the Packers defense, he's in a world of trouble this weekend. I'd keep discussing this game, but out of fear of saying anything else nice about the Steelers, I'm moving on to the next game.

Baltimore Ravens @ San Diego Chargers

This has "good game" written all over it. Normally I side with the home team when the visitors are traveling cross country, but I'm picking the Ravens in this one. The Chargers left me feeling very underwhelmed Monday night when they squeaked out a win against the Raiders. Oakland caused two San Diego turnovers, sacked Phillip Rivers three times, and had seven tackles for a loss. Now if the Chargers had a hard time with the Raiders defense, imagine what they are going to deal with when Baltimore comes to town.

The Ravens, normally a running team, showed a new side to their offense last week when Cam Cameron called for Joe Flacco to throw all over the field. Baltimore finished the game with 501 total yards, including 303 in the air and another 198 on the ground. Obviously the Chargers defense will be better than the Chiefs, but considering the fact that the Ravens advanced all the way to the AFC championship game last season without much offense, the idea of them opening it up like this should be pretty scary for other AFC teams.

Cleveland Browns @ Denver Broncos

I'm so glad this game is at 4:00 and the Bills play at 4:00 because if I was forced to watch this crap fest, I might go all Serena Williams on the first person that got near me. I swear to God, if you make me watch the Browns and Bengals this Sunday, I'm ******* going to take this ******* ball and shove it down your ******* throat, you hear that?

NY Giants @ The Cowboys Scoreboard Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys were impressive last Sunday, but they were expected to be. This week it will be a much tougher test as they face the Giants at home. The Giants defense completely dominated Washington last week and I expect more of the same this week. Of course, now that Dallas doesn't have T.O. they are apparently a much better team. How do I know this? BECAUSE EVERY SINGLE NETWORK MENTIONED IT 8,000 TIMES LAST SUNDAY.

Indianapolis Colts @ Miami Dolphins

Big game for the Dolphins. Coming off their surprising 11-5 season last year, they really need to prove that it wasn't a fluke or an easy schedule or Tom Brady being injured all season as the reason they made such an improvement and returned to the playoffs. They did a poor job of that last week as Atlanta pretty much dominated them all afternoon. I do expect the game to be close but much like the 49ers/Seahawks game; I look at the QB matchup as a potential deciding factor. Peyton Manning or Noodle Arm Pennington? I'm going with Manning.

Last Week: 13-3

NFL Season: 13-3


Scott's Picks for Week 2:

Carolina @ Atlanta
Minnesota @ Detroit
Cincinnati @ Green Bay
Houston @ Tennessee
Oakland @ Kansas City
New England @ NY Jets
New Orleans @ Philadelphia
St. Louis @ Washington
Arizona @ Jacksonville
Seattle @ San Francisco
Tampa Bay @ Buffalo
Pittsburgh @ Chicago
Cleveland @ Denver
Baltimore @ San Diego
NY Giants @ Dallas
Indianapolis @ Miami

Last Week: 13-3

NFL Season: 13-3


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