D and S Sports: NFL Picks

NFL Picks – Week 3

9/24/2009 | Posted by Devin

After starting off the season with a great 13-3 start, my picks fell back to Earth in Week Two with terrible 9-7 performance. If the NFL wanted parity, they got it. Teams with very good defensive performances in Week One struggled to duplicate that in Week Two which resulted in some home losses (Green Bay, Tennessee, Jacksonville). The defending Super Bowl champions have a kicker who missed a grand total of four kicks last season, already miss two this season and both of which most likely cost them a win this past Sunday. The Titans, a team that lost only three games last season, is currently 0-2 and staring at a big hole in their division. The Jets are 2-0 with a rookie QB and rookie Head Coach. Tom Brady has thrown two touchdowns in two games, half of what Trent Edwards has thrown. The 49ers are 2-0 with Shaun Hill starting at QB. As the great Vince Lombardi once said, "What the hell is going on around here?" Now that we're clear that nothing is making sense anymore, let's get to the picks.

Washington Redskins @ Detroit Lions

It's true; the Lions haven't looked especially great so far, but nobody really expected them to. They almost shattered a ton of eliminator pools last week when they were leading 10-0 over Minnesota late into the second quarter. They did win up losing 27-13 but really, that is much better than I thought in terms of a losing margin. Matthew Stafford has looked a little rough so far, but let us keep in mind, he is a rookie QB on a winless team from 2008. Enough of all that nonsense though, let's get to the real reason why I'm picking the Lions to finally end their 19 game regular season losing streak.

The Redskins suck. Man do they suck. Speaking of shattering eliminator pools, the Redskins did their part to scare half the country before finally pulling off a 9-7 nail biter against the Rams, one of the worst teams in the league. On paper the Redskins have a ton of talent offensively, but none of it has shown so far. This game should be a slam dunk. The Redskins should crush the Lions. But after seeing Washington struggle at home to the Rams, how am I supposed to believe that they'll take on Detroit on the road? Plus I feel like picking an upset.

Green Bay Packers @ St Louis Rams

The Rams are the perfect bounce-back game for the Packers. They get to go on the road in a nice quiet dome stadium and beat up on a bad team. Perfect for those who have Aaron Rodgers, Ryan Grant, and Greg Jennings on your fantasy roster. I still can't believe Green Bay lost to the Bengals at home, but like a wise man once said, that is why they play the games. The Packers will be fine though. They are still going to win the NFC North and will still go deep into the playoffs.

San Francisco 49ers @ Minnesota Vikings

Mike Singletary is a smart guy. I've been praising him since last season ended so I would know this. So I'm sure he knows the game plan, stop Adrian Peterson and beat the Vikings. Unless Brett Favre steps into a time machine and the Brett Favre from a decade ago shows up, he isn't going to carry the Vikings to a victory anytime soon. If any fan of the Vikings is impressed with Favre or happy he joined the team, please put the crack pipe down, and feel free to contact me as to why you're happy this bum is starting.

Atlanta Falcons @ New England Patriots

New England definitely isn't who we thought they were, but this is usually when they come back with a huge statement win against a very good team, so I wouldn't be shocked if they beat the Falcons on Sunday. The addition of Tony Gonzalez has been huge for Atlanta. The added weapon for Matt Ryan has made him look so much better this year and that is bad news for those in the NFC this year. The Patriots defense allowed 90 yards rushing to the Bills in Week One and 117 last week against the Jets so look for Michael Turner to finally break loose with a potential big game. Home field advantage is completely dead for New England so I'm going with the better road team in this matchup.

Tennessee Titans @ New York Jets

I really wanted to pick Tennessee in this game but I just couldn't do it. I can't see Jeff Fisher allowing his team to start 0-3 and match their regular season loss total from a season ago in the first month, but I have a feeling it's going to happen. Last year when the Titans were booted from the playoffs far too early, it was at the hands of the Baltimore Ravens. I'm sure by now you know where I'm going with this and why I'm picking the Jets so let's just move on.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Philadelphia Eagles

Who knows if Donovan McNabb is going to be back for this game, but I'm sure glad I drafted him to be my fantasy starter in one league. The good news for Philly is that they should beat the Chiefs this Sunday with or without Kevin Kolb. I haven't been very nice about Kolb since the season started and now you know why. He was terrible last Sunday. Michael Vick comes back this week and he might get more playing time with McNabb out, but I don't think he is going to start or even play half the game.

The Chiefs on the other hand, they should be embarrassed by last week's performance. They dominated the Raiders in almost every aspect of the game and still found a way to lose. JaMarcus Russell looked so bad that I'm honestly wondering how long it will be before he is starting for the California Redwoods. Matt Cassel didn't look too good for Kansas City and that's a bad sign. They gave up a second round pick to get him and signed him to a huge deal. I know it's only one game, but could it have been the coaching/talent surrounding him last year that made him so good? Time will tell.

New York Giants @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Giants are a very good team as evidenced by my power rankings earlier this week. Ever since the Giants started their little run which resulted in a Super Bowl victory, I've looked at Eli Manning in a different light. He went from being 'Peyton's little brother' to 'Eli Manning: Real Deal QB'. His drive at the end of the Dallas game was very good and while watching it, I almost felt like he was definitely going to get them in position to win the game. Much like how I felt Monday night watching Peyton, it was basically a foregone conclusion that he was going to get it done. Very few QB's have that and Eli is one of them. I still love the "Manning Face" and refuse to give that up though.

The Bucs…what should I say that I haven't already? They are a bad team. Since I'd just be repeating myself when talking about the Bucs, I'll take this time to thank Byron Leftwich for finally allowing Donte Whitner to make an impact play for the Bills. All Bills fans have been waiting for a play like that (or any play at all) from Whitner since he was drafted, so from the Buffalo fans, THANK YOU BYRON!!

Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens

Talk about a mismatch. A top five team against a bottom five team. This game has to make Browns fans sick. There is no way Baltimore loses this game…right? No way.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans

I'm so close to writing off the Jaguars that it's practically already done. The only thing that can save Jacksonville from this is to beat Houston at home. Houston on the other hand, I might've been a little too harsh on them after the first week. They came back with a very impressive performance on the road as Matt Schaub went off on the Titans' defense for four passing touchdowns. The scariest part about Houston is that Steve Slaton has yet to really get going. I'm assuming he will and when he does, the Texans will be that much harder to beat.

New Orleans Saints @ Buffalo Bills

The Bills had a nice win against a team they should beat, but the Saints are not the Buccaneers. I'd tell you that this game worries me but with my expectations being fairly low for Buffalo and me already penciling in a loss this week, I'm really not worried at all. Either the Bills perform like I think and Drew Brees goes off again or the Bills pull off a huge upset and I'm a very happy boy. It's almost like a win/win scenario, except for the fact that if Brees goes off I have to watch the Bills get throttled Sunday afternoon.

Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks

The Bears were going to win this game anyways, so with Seneca Wallace making the start; it's really a matter of how much Chicago is going to win by. Although the Bears were aided by two missed field goals in Week Two, it was still a nice win against the defending Super Bowl champions. Jay Cutler bounced back impressively after stinking it up on opening night and showed why the Bears wanted him so badly. Just imagine if he has some really good receivers to throw to.

Miami Dolphins @ San Diego Chargers

This is the way these types of games usually go. Miami dominates at home and still finds a way to lose in the previous week. I essentially write them off because now they've had a very difficult loss, short week, and are traveling across the country for a game against a good team. Then on Sunday afternoon I'm cursing up a storm as Miami pulls off the win.

Despite what usually happens, I'm still picking San Diego. For one, I hate picking the Dolphins. For two, the Chargers would really have to try and lose this game. Seriously, stop the Wildcat and you stop the Dolphins. It is that simple. Enough of the Wildcat. ENOUGH.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals

I said it after Week One and I'm saying it now, the Steelers do not look like a great team, or at least a team poised to repeat as Super Bowl champion. If there were to line up against Baltimore right now, the Ravens would win by at least 10 points. Pittsburgh's defense is hurting without Polamalu and Ben Roethlisberger has hardly looked impressive so far. Then again, he isn't going up against Shaquille O'Neal's flag football team so he can't be expected to look great.

All that being said, they should still beat the Bengals. Cincinnati should be 2-0 but they stand at 1-1 with a chance to beat Pittsburgh and knock them into third place in the AFC North. It's a nice spot for Cincy but I don't see it happening. The Steelers are the better team and haven't lost to the Bengals since September 24, 2006. Then again, I never would've thought that the Bengals would win in Green Bay so we'll have to wait until they play the game.

Denver Broncos @ Oakland Raiders

The Broncos get another easy game this week as they travel to Oakland. And before you give me this jive about how Oakland almost beat San Diego at home, I urge you to watch some of the Raiders/Chiefs game first. I'm chalking up the Monday night performance as a bad game by the Chargers and an overly good game by Oakland. I'm fairly certain the real Raiders were what we saw this past Sunday. Why else would Jeff Garcia ask for his release before the season (Or so it is rumored that he did)? He would definitely be close to starting in Oakland and is now buried in Philly with McNabb, Kolb, and Vick. If he just wanted to play, staying in Oakland was his best bet. I'm guessing he saw something that we are starting to see with the Raiders.

Indianapolis Colts @ Arizona Cardinals

If the Cardinals beat the Colts I'll have to officially take back my harsh words about how they were hung-over from the Super Bowl and should still be taken seriously. Luckily for me, it isn't happening. Sure the Cardinals throttled Jacksonville and defied my prediction of them playing on the East Coast. But it was the Jaguars for crying out loud. The Colts are not the Jaguars (obviously).

The Colts biggest problem Monday night was stopping the run, particularly the Wildcat. Arizona basically has no running game. The combination of Tim Hightower and Beanie Wells has resulted in 160 yards rushing for the first two weeks. Again, that is a combined total. So essentially it takes two players to gain 80 yards a game. Just for comparison, Fred Jackson ran for 163 yards by himself last week against Tampa Bay.

If the Cardinals hope to win, this game is going to turn into an aerial shootout. As a fantasy owner of Larry Fitzgerald, I'm all for this.

Carolina Panthers @ Dallas Cowboys

This game can go a few different ways. Both teams could play a hard fought defensive battle that comes down to the very end (15% chance). Both teams could play a mistake filled, turnover heavy game that gets ugly near the end and one team loses on a missed field goal (85% chance). ESPN could talk about the Cowboys new stadium all night and how Jerry Jones is the greatest human being on the planet (100% chance).

Here is something to think about. Dallas allowed Steve Smith of the Giants to catch 10 passes for 134 yards and one touchdown. How are they going to handle Carolina's version of Steve Smith? Easy, they won't.

Last Week: 9-7

NFL Season: 22-10

Scott's Picks: