2010 Buffalo Sabres Season Preview

Last season was an exciting one for Buffalo fans as the Sabres ended their two year playoff hiatus by winning the Northeast Division and eventually winning the Stanley Cup flopping in the first round to the sixth seeded Boston Bruins. This was due in large part to Ryan Miller and the best season of his career. To many Buffalo fans, Miller has always been that "really good" goalie that had trouble crossing over into the great category. Not only did he affirm himself as a top three goaltender in the NHL, he almost helped lead Team USA to a stunning gold medal victory in the Olympics. The big question this season will be whether or not he builds on that success or slips a little now that greatness will be expected of him.
Key Additions: Rob Niedermayer (F), Jordan Leopold (D), Shaone Morrisonn (D)
Key Losses: Toni Lydman (D), Henrik Tallinder (D), Tim Kennedy (F), Adam Mair (F)
As usual, it wasn't an exciting offseason for Buffalo (unless you count the death of the slug). On the surface, it would appear that losing Lydman and Tallinder will hurt the blue line quite a bit. But as you'll remember, I've never been overly impressed with either player. Last offseason I was hoping they would both get traded and the Sabres would get something in return for them. Naturally this didn't happen, but the Sabres essentially traded in these two guys for Leopold and Morrisonn during the summer. Are they an upgrade? Well, let's take a look.
2008-09 | GP | Goals | Assists | +/- | Blocked Shots |
T. Lydman | 80 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 166 |
H. Tallinder | 66 | 1 | 11 | -2 | 81 |
J. Leopold | 83 | 7 | 17 | -15 | 100 |
S. Morrisonn | 72 | 3 | 10 | +4 | 98 |
2009-10 | |||||
T. Lydman | 67 | 4 | 16 | +2 | 98 |
H. Tallinder | 82 | 4 | 16 | +13 | 95 |
J. Leopold | 81 | 11 | 15 | -2 | 138 |
S. Morrisonn | 68 | 1 | 11 | +8 | 104 |
Use those numbers and draw whatever conclusion you would like. But I have two last things to consider when evaluating these players. Toni Lydman is 32 years old and Henrik Tallinder is 31. Jordan Leopold is 30 years old and Shaone Morrisonn is 27. Also, Tallinder and Lydman were signed by their new teams for a total of $6,675,000 against the cap. Leopold and Morrisonn will count for a combined $5,075,000 against the cap. Sounds to me like a pretty solid deal.
But enough with the defensemen, let's talk about the forwards.
The only notable addition via free agency is Rob Niedermayer. He won't light up the score sheet for sure, but he provides some good veteran depth and leadership. I don't think it's a coincidence at all that the Sabres matured last season when Mike Grier came back for his second stint with the team. I think the Niedermayer signing is a similar one in that aspect. It's also worth noting that Niedermayer is now the only player on the Sabres current roster with his name on the Stanley Cup. That has to count for something, right?
Leaving the team is Adam Mair and Tim Kennedy. Mair was on the outside looking in when last season started and struggled for the bulk of the season. To his credit though, when the playoffs started, Mair was very noticeable on the ice. Unfortunately for him, Cody McCormick was called up during the playoffs and seemed to play just as well. With that, McCormick looks like he'll be a permanent Sabre this season and Mair was sent packing. I have nothing against Adam Mair and wouldn't have minded it if he came back, but I do like this move. McCormick is younger, might have a little more scoring in him and will definitely drop the gloves when necessary. We've already seen that much so far in the preseason.
Kennedy was the hometown boy that impressed many last season. He definitely had his rough spots during the season and was horrid at taking faceoffs, but overall it would've been worthwhile to bring him back. Kennedy was a RFA and there was little doubt that he'd be back this season. The Sabres offered him a little over $800,000 and a two way contract to remain with the team. Kennedy balked at that offer, mostly the two way part, because he didn't want to be held accountable for his play. If he were to slip up like he did last season, the Sabres would now have the option to send him down to Portland. So Kennedy took the team to arbitration and was rewarded with a $1 million/1 year deal. Because the amount was under a certain limit, the Sabres had no choice but to accept the offer. So the Sabres promptly bought out his contract and sent him packing. Recently, Kennedy has been waived by the Rangers. This means he'll either be playing in the AHL or be unemployed. One has to think that maybe he should've just shut up and taken the Sabres initial offer.
One of the biggest reasons that Kennedy was expendable to the Sabres was the emergence of Tyler Ennis and possibly Nathan Gerbe. Gerbe has had plenty of opportunities to impress the Sabres during numerous call-ups and could never really accomplish much. I'm absolutely in that crowd as I was just about sick of hearing about Gerbe and his "potential". To his credit though, Gerbe got increased playing time during the playoffs and started to impress me. If he can bring that type of game every night, he surely deserves a roster spot.
Ennis got his call-up later than Gerbe or Kennedy, but blew both out of the water when his style of play. In 10 regular season games, Ennis contributed nine points. Similarly, in six playoff games, Ennis chipped in four points. Granted it's a small amount of games, but Ennis has shown the ability to be a near point per game player and I'm all for that. Last time the Sabres thought they had one on the roster they signed him to a 2 year/4.5 million dollar deal.
It's no secret that by the end of last season, I was about as down as you could be on the "core" of the Sabres. But this is where selective memory comes into play. I've all summer to calm down and relax about them. I'm taking a homeristic view into the season that they have another season under their belts and will be more experience and ready to contribute. Just as a disclaimer though, this goes for about the first 10 games of the season. If it becomes more of the same (I'm sure it will) from Pominville, Connolly and the gang; I'll be all for trading them and getting fresh faces in Buffalo. I can only take so much ineptitude and I get the bulk of that from the Bills already.
Looking at the Northeast Division, Boston is really the only team I see as a legit threat to take the title away from Buffalo. Ottawa is getting older and signing Sergei Gonchar didn't exactly address that particular issue. I'm still not enamored by their goaltending situation, though I never really have been. Montreal will be a solid team, but I'm pretty sure trading Halak and keeping Carey Price was the textbook definition of a wrong move. Price has already been booed mercilessly after allowing four goals in the preseason opener. I see that ending well. The Leafs will be improved with J.S. Giguere in net, but well, they're still the Leafs.
And because of the reasons listed above (barring some major injury), I fully expect the Sabres to make a trip to the playoffs again. Realistically I see them as a 4-6 seed, but winning the division is definitely in play.
NFL Picks – Week Five

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals - I'm sure how I can explain the Begansl losing to Cleveland. This team is simply not a contender, despite a wealth of talent on the offensive side of the ball. I'd be hard pressed to argue that few QBs in the NFL have regressed quite like Carson Palmer has. He is a far cry from the player he was five years ago. (Bengals)
Atlanta Falcons @ Cleveland Browns - If the Falcons want to win the NFC South, they will need to win the winnable games. I know, sound logic. They are tied with New Orleans at 3-1 but currently have the tie-breaker. There is no way they continue that lead or build on it by losing to Cleveland. Nobody will take them seriously if that happens. It's bad enough they struggled against San Francisco and got bailed out by Nate Clements. (Falcons)
St. Louis Rams @ Detroit Lions - The Rams bottomed out for two straight years but they got their franchise QB in the process. Sam Bradford has been crazy good so far in the first four weeks. He has the Rams at 2-2, tied for first in the NFC West and he's doing it with really no good receivers around him. I find it especially impressive. (Rams)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Indianapolis Colts - I was going to say that the Chiefs will be brought back down to Earth this week as they are currently the lone remaining undefeated team, but I don't think anybody believes that they are for real anyways. For further proof, please see that the line for this game has Indianapolis favored by 8.5 points. In case you're wondering, that is the biggest line of the week. (Colts)
Green Bay Packers @ Washington Redskins - I have no idea what happened in the NFC East but it's suddenly turned into a giant pile of mediocrity. Washington is 2-2 and tied for first place. With three other 2-2 teams. It's like they're competing with the NFC West to see who can be worse and still make the playoffs. And just for the record, the 2-2 Rams already blew away the Redskins. That should tell you all you need to know. (Packers)
Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers - The Bears just aren't as good as their 3-1 record would indicate, but luckily for them, Carolina is worse. Personally, I'm shocked that Jimmy Clausen has struggled so far in the NFL. I thought for sure he would be a star after going to the greatest college EVER. (Bears)
Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens - I just want to thank Baltimore personally for taking down the Steelers at Heinz Field last Sunday. It was a little too close, considering the fact that the Steelers were starting Chaz Batch, but a win is a win. They need to keep the momentum rolling and steamroll the Broncos. (Ravens)
NY Giants @ Houston Texans - Thanks to Jacksonville, the Texans are alone in first place heading into Week Five. It's uncharted territory for Houston and they absolutely need to keep it going. The Jags aren't going to be any threat as the season goes on, so they need to hold on to the 1.5 game lead they have over Indianapolis. (Texans)
New Orleans @ Arizona Cardinals - Last season, New Orleans pounded the Cardinals 45-14 in the playoffs. Flash forward to this year, where the Cardinals are without Kurt Warner and are significantly worse, and yes, this game has blowout written all over it. Adding to the equation, the Cardinals are starting Max Hall at QB. Oh boy. (Saints)
San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders - This game will probably be closer than it should be, but mostly because the Chargers are the hardest team to get a handle on. I have no idea what to make of them right now. I'll answer that question in December. For now, they're on a week-to-week basis with me. (Chargers)
Tennessee Titans @ Dallas Cowboys - I'm pretty sure the Titans are the better team, but they're on the road and Dallas has had two full weeks to prepare for the game. (Cowboys)
Philadelphia Eagles @ San Francisco 49ers - I have no way to explain my logic behind this pick. Just a gut feeling, nothing more, nothing less. (49ers)
Minnesota Vikings @ NY Jets - Minnesota's trade for Randy Moss can go in a few different directions. One, it will give Minnesota fans a reason to dig through their closet and put on their old Moss jersey. I know I enjoyed this when the Bills brought back Peerless Price. Two, it will give the Vikings' offense someone to draw attention away from Adrian Peterson and Percy Harvin. Three, Brett Favre, a QB who historically likes to close his eyes and bomb the football, now has a receiver who can make plays on the other end and bail him out. Four, Moss flames out, the Vikings are without a third round pick in next year's draft and Brett Favre cashes his $20MM check while chuckling to himself on the farm. (NY Jets)
Last Week: 8-6
Entire Season: 38-24
Scott's Picks:
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Buffalo Bills
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals
Atlanta Falcons @ Cleveland Browns
St. Louis Rams @ Detroit Lions
Kansas City Chiefs @ Indianapolis Colts
Green Bay Packers @ Washington Redskins
Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers
Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens
NY Giants @ Houston Texans
New Orleans @ Arizona Cardinals
San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders
Tennessee Titans @ Dallas Cowboys
Philadelphia Eagles @ San Francisco 49ers
Minnesota Vikings @ NY Jets
Last Week: 9-5
Entire Season: 36-26
Fantasy Update:
Scott is now up 2-1. I'm clearly ahead of him in my league and he is the same in his league. Our BZ Staff League has gone back and forth and while we're both 3-1, he has scored way more points than me and took the lead by virtue of that tie-breaker.

End of an Era: Marshawn Lynch

The Bills finally solved their three-headed running back situation on Tuesday by shipping Marshawn Lynch off to Seattle for a fourth round pick in 2011 and a conditional pick in 2012. On the surface, this is a good deal for the Bills, Seahawks and Lynch. Let me explain.
It was a good deal for the Bills because like I said above, it solves their running back situation. While running Lynch, they were taking carries away from Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller. Now the Bills can effectively use Jackson as the number one back and let Spiller see some more action. On the surface, this is a great move. Although I suppose I have to remind everyone that the Bills are still terrible and it most likely won't make a huge difference.
The Bills also got a good return for Lynch. In terms of draft picks, the Bills might have been able to score a
This was a good deal for Seattle because they just picked up a number one running back for a fourth round pick and a conditional pick. Small price to pay for a guy in his fourth year and ran for 1,000 yards in his first two. Besides Justin Forsett, there really isn't much going on in Seattle's backfield. Keep in mind, this is a division where 8-8 can win it, so Seattle needs to improve now and take advantage of the situation.
I'd be remiss in discussing Lynch if I didn't bring up his legal troubles. Lynch has had two run-ins with the law already and is most likely one more incident away from a year long suspension. So with that in mind, Seattle also took a bit of a risk. The way I see it, this lowered his trade value considerably which is why I'm so happy with what the Bills got in return.
Finally, this is a good deal for Lynch. He wanted out of Buffalo and needed a change of scenery. The city embraced Beast Mode early in his career, but the fans quickly became sick of his off the field transgressions. Lynch was also not getting a full workload because again, he was sharing carries with Jackson and Spiller. While he still might share carries with Forsett in Seattle, sharing with one instead of two is a better thing for all involved.
I was a huge fan of Lynch when he was drafted by the Bills. I was willing to look past his first incident. Then came his second and I quickly quoted on Facebook, "I don't want felons on my team." I still stand by that statement. Last year I couldn't stand Lynch. He looked fat and uninterested in helping the team. I've had a brief change of heart this year because he's looked much better on the field and I'd like to think he's not stupid enough to screw up again off the field.
All in all, this is a slightly sad day for me as a Bills fan. I know it's for the betterment of the franchise and for Lynch, but I'll miss him. He was a knucklehead, but there were lots of good times mixed in as well. Lynch took the sting away when the Bills traded Willis McGahee, who set the world record for being my favorite current Bill to the guy I couldn't stand anymore. For that, I'll always appreciate those few good years with Lynch.
Best of luck Marshawn.
Bills vs Jets Preview

For the first time since 2004, the Bills will open the season with a 0-4 record. Sorry to put it so bluntly, but the Bills aren't a good team and the Jets are much better. When I projected the Bills schedule before the season, I said that the Bills would split the season series with the Jets. Despite my views on how much better the Jets are than the Bills, I still think that will be the case at the end of the season. Maybe. After this week, the Bills don't face the Jets until Week 17, so there is a very real possibility the the Bills will steal a win against the Jets backups. For the sake of getting a high draft pick, I almost hope this doesn't happen. We'll save that talk for Week 17 though, there is a game this Sunday to discuss.
Quarterbacks - For as much as I rip on The Sanchize, he is better than Ryan Fitzpatrick or Brian Brohm. Then again, that isn't saying much. The Sanchize has played very well in the past two weeks and it has a lot of people thinking he's turned the corner. Me? I'm not so sure. I'll get closer to that decision when we're about halfway through the season. Food for thought. In two games against Buffalo last year, The Sanchize threw for 223 yards, one touchdown and five interceptions.
Fitzpatrick is no Pro Bowl QB, but I think he can rack up some serious yards against the Jets. It looks like Revis Island will miss his second straight game, which would put mass producer Antonio Cromartie up against Lee Evans. As Fitzpatrick displayed last Sunday in New England, he isn't afraid to hit Roscoe Parrish and Stevie Johnson over the middle when they're open. If you think I'm crazy; consider this. The Jets currently rank 27th in the NFL in pass defense, allowing an average of 274.7 yards per game.
Running Backs - I have no idea what is going on with LaDainian Tomlinson. He apparently isn't totally
Have you ever seen Rob Zombie's version of Halloween? (If not, I suggest you do.) There is a scene in the beginning where young Michael Myers beats a bully to death with a huge tree branch in a fit of rage. It's pretty brutal. If you know the scene I'm talking about, you know exactly what Shonn Greene has done to a number of my fantasy teams this year. Greene has 106 yards and zero touchdowns so far in three games. I could list the number of players that blew those numbers away in one game, but I think I've established my point already.
I like the Bills stable of running backs a lot more than the Jets, but unfortunately for Buffalo, they have to face the Jets run defense. Being optimistic, I can see the Bills maybe running for 50 yards combined (if they're lucky).
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends - I don't intend on sounding like a homer, but I'm not sold on the Jets receivers either. Jerricho Cotchery does nothing for me. Neither does David Clowney. If Brad Smith is lining up in the wildcat, I suppose he instills a little fear in me. And I only fear Braylon Edwards if he is driving on my street at 5AM.
Even without Revis, I'm not expecting much from Lee Evans. No slight against Lee, but this is what happens when he goes up against number one defenders every week. I've loved how Chan Gailey has worked Roscoe Parrish into the games so far this season. Since coming into the NFL and being completely mis-used by the Bills, the best season for Parrish was in 2007 when he grabbed 35 passes for for 352 yards. So far in three games this season, Parrish has nine receptions for 152 yards. I'm no mathematician, but it looks to me like this will be a career year for Roscoe.
Tight ends are another story. Dustin Keller is pretty good and the Bills are horrendous at stopping the tight end. For more information, please see exhibit A.
Exhibit A:
Those numbers are due in large part to the awful pass covering ability of Donte "Toast" Whitner and Chris Kelsay. I'd like to discuss this further but after the Bills gave Kelsay a $24MM extension, I'd rather just move on to another topic.
Defense: This came as a total shock to me, but the Bills have the 22nd overall defense in the NFL and the Jets only have the 20th. The Jets have the fourth overall run defense so their overall ranking is hurt by their all-of-a-sudden mediocre pass defense. I highlighted this above, but their pass defense will surely improve when Revis Island returns to the lineup from his injured hamstring (and ego).
Going into the season, I thought the strength of the Bills (if they even had one) would be their secondary. So far it's been a major disappointment. They are currently 18th in the NFL with an average of 221.3 yards per game. I still think the secondary is good, so I have to partially chalk this up to the competition. Facing Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady in consecutive weeks is no easy task. It will be interesting to see how they do this week for multiple reasons.
Special Teams: I have no idea how anybody would rank overall special teams. So I decided to look at two aspects of special teams to get a better grasp on things.
Kicking: Rian Lindell is 4/6 on the season, with his two misses being from 50+ yards. So in reality, he's been perfect this season.
Nick Folk is 6/7 on the season, with his one loss also being from 50+ yards. I would like to rip on Nick Folk for flopping last season and being released by Dallas, but Folk is the guy who helped pull off the ridiculous comeback Dallas had on MNF in Buffalo. Excuse me while I vomit.
Returns: Honestly, I know next to nothing about the Jets return game. I just looked it up on their depth chart and according to ESPN, Brad Smith is the main kick returner and Jim Leonhard is the punt returner. Uh, whatever. I suppose both are a threat to bring it back, but I'm not very worried.
This is one aspect during the Bills decade of awfulness that they continue to dominate. Currently C.J. Spiller is the main kick returner and he already showed what he can do last week against New England. In the event he isn't available, they have Leodis McKelvin, which aside from his fumble problems last opening day, is also an explosive kick returner.
Roscoe Parrish continues to return punts for Buffalo and honestly, he's a threat to bring it back every time. There are a few returners in the NFL who I legitimately think can take it back every time they touch the ball and Parrish is on that list. Maybe that is me partially being a homer, but give him a few blocks and he's gone. Trust me.
Prediction:. Jets 23, Bills 14.
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