Week 14 Picks
12/09/2010 | Posted by
Devin
About halfway through this season, I decided to stop writing full-blown picks articles and focus more on the upcoming Bills game. This was a solid strategy but when it comes to a week like this it's borderline impossible. I've sat here at the computer for well over an hour trying to come up with a good Bills vs Browns preview. Here is what I've been able to come up with so far:
1. The Bills offensive line is a mess and might get destroyed on Sunday
2. The weather will be really bad
3. Jake Delhomme sucks
4. Peyton Hillis is going to plow through the Bills horrendous run defense
That's it. That's all I've been able to come up with. There is no possible way I can write a full preview when every thought I have centers around those four ideas. So I decided, at least for this week, that I would revert back to old form and just pick all the games and throw a few lines up about each game instead.
Picks are in bold.
Indianapolis @ Tennessee
- For the NFL wanting to showcase Thursday night football games and hold it against cable companies because they don't have the games, they are sure picking some awful matchups. Granted it isn't their fault and they can't predict the future, but these have been some crap games. The Falcons/Ravens game was a nice start, but it's been pure garbage since then, this game included. Next week we have San Diego and San Francisco. (How does San Francisco get so many primetime games?!?) The following week it's Carolina/Pittsburgh on Thursday and Dallas/Arizona on Saturday. I have a feeling some Time Warner executive is sitting back cackling about this and the NFL's demands to carry the network. Regardless, I'm glad I have them because sometimes any football is better than no football.
Back to the game though. I can't see any possible way that the Colts lose this game. For the first time that I can remember, their back is against the wall and their playoff hopes are in serious jeopardy. On top of that, Peyton Manning has been pure garbage for the past three weeks and he's going to eventually rebound in a big way. Luckily for all of us fantasy players, it's happening around fantasy playoff time. This is a huge change from previous years where Manning owners were carried to the playoffs and then screwed over as Indianapolis rested their starters.
On top of that, the Titans have fallen into the tank and are finished for the season. They are two games back in the division with games against the Colts, Texans, Chiefs, and Colts. There isn't an easy game remaining on the slate. Vince Young is finished for the season, Kerry Collins is showing his age, and Rusty Smith is Rusty Smith. All of this must be affecting CJ2K because he's rushed for 58 yards in the last two games combined. All of this leads to my one big question about Tennessee. At what point do people start pointing the finger at Jeff Fisher? There seems to be constant character issues in Tennessee and to be quite honest, what exactly has he done? He's been the coach for almost 20 years with only one Super Bowl appearance to date.
Cleveland @ Buffalo
- As I highlighted above, Peyton Hillis is going to run all over the Bills. If the reports are true and Buffalo does get a huge blizzard, I expect even more running and an even bigger day for Hillis. As if he isn't hard enough to tackle, now do it when the conditions suck and it's freezing outside. The only hope I have right now is that Hillis turns the ball over a few times and the Bills are able to hang with them and make it close. For a game that I thought was a definite win earlier in the season, I have little hope at this point and don't expect a whole lot.
Green Bay @ Detroit
- Crazy thought of the day. If the season were to end today, the Packers would not make the playoffs. A large part of this is because the awful NFC West will get a team in no matter what, but also because Chicago has a full game lead on Green Bay and the tie-breaker as of now. Because of all this, Green Bay is full must-win mode for the final four games of the season. They face the Giants and Bears in the final two weeks, the two teams ahead of them in the wild card and division. Combine this with the fact that they are playing Detroit, and there is no way Green Bay can lose this game.
New York Giants @ Minnesota
- If there was one annoying thing about last week's Vikings/Bills game, it was the whole "Tarvaris Jackson is good" idea that kept getting thrown out there. Listen, he wasn't good at all. His one touchdown was a toss-up to Sidney Rice, who made a great catch to pull it down in between two Buffalo defenders. But let's not get crazy. I could've thrown that pass. It wasn't Jackson's great pass at all; it was Rice's tremendous effort. On top of that, Jackson threw three interceptions to a defense that had four going into the day. The reason Minnesota won was because A)Adrian Peterson ran all over the league's worst run defense and B) The Bills turned the ball over five times, including twice that gave Minnesota the ball in the red zone and once on the one yard line where they were poised to score.
With all of the above in mind, the Giants will win this game. Their defense is much better than Buffalo's and they are a much more desperate team. They need to win this game to keep pace and setup a division deciding matchup next week against Philadelphia. Good teams don't lose the easy ones.
Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh
- When doing a little research on the Steelers, I came across one really impressive stat. Rashard Mendenhall has 1007 yards and nine touchdowns on the season. Normally that wouldn't be very impressive given the fact that he is good and the Steelers are also good, but it's amazing given the offensive line he has in front of him. This says a lot coming from a Bills fan, but the Steelers have the worst offensive line I've seen in a long time. The Bills have one of the worst defenses in recent memory and they were consistently putting pressure on Ben Roethlisberger. On top of that, the few times they were protecting him well was because they were always holding. I'm saying this as unbiased as I can, I have no idea how they are going to win in the playoffs with such a horrendous offensive line. They should win at least three of the next four games, but it will be interesting to see how this is addressed in the playoffs.
Tampa Bay @ Washington
- Tampa Bay pretty much blew their shot at the playoffs last week when they lost to Atlanta. Right now they are 7-5 and trail the Giants and Packers for the wild card. They would actually need a collapse from both teams (not happening) to gain the sixth seed. Even more of a long shot is to hope either New Orleans or Atlanta flop in the final four weeks and allow them to creep in. I've mentioned this before, but we can thank the awful NFC West for this, because as of now, the 6-6 St. Louis Rams would be hosting a playoff game. I addressed a similar issue in my fantasy league for next season; the NFL may want to do the same.
Atlanta @ Carolina
- When I was recently asked about how I'd pick for the Super Bowl, I said I'd have to pick Atlanta in the NFC if they have home-field throughout the playoffs. The formula is simple: the Falcons almost never lose at home. In three seasons, Matt Ryan has lost once inside the Georgia Dome. That is a crazy stat, but 100% true. Now that we know that, also know that the Falcons control their own destiny for the top seed in the NFC and have games against Carolina, Seattle, New Orleans, and Carolina. Three easy wins on that list and the hard game against New Orleans, it's at home. In other words, the Falcons have pretty much wrapped up home field throughout the playoffs.
Oakland @ Jacksonville
- I realize that Jacksonville is in first place in the AFC South and in the driver's seat to make the playoffs, but I refuse to believe they're a good team. They have exactly zero wins against teams with a record above .500. Their losses on the other hand, have come against teams with records of 6-6, 8-4, 5-7, 8-4, and 8-4. Do you see the point I'm making here? They play bad teams, they win. They play good teams, they lose. Sometimes it's really that simply. If the Jags somehow hold onto the South lead and host a playoff game, not only will it not sell out, but they'll be one and done for sure. Mark it down. The Jaguars are a joke.
Seattle @ San Francisco
- I have to think Seattle is going to win this game because right now they are dead-locked in first place at 6-6 with the Rams. That's my only reasoning. Well that and the 49ers aren't very good. Seattle beat them 31-6 on opening day and I don't see any reason why it would be different this week.
St. Louis @ New Orleans
- As of now, this would be a first round preview. Yikes. The Rams are much improved over past years, but they aren't beating the Saints on the road. To their credit though, the line is -8.5 for New Orleans and I think the Rams will at least cover the spread.
New England @ Chicago
- If we've learned one thing over the years, it's to not piss the Patriots off. The Jets pissed them off by constantly running their mouth without accomplishing anything and look what happened last Monday night. This week, Brian Urlacher came out and said the Bears are the best team in the NFL right now. I'm just guessing, but I don't think Tom Brady and company will respond very well to that.
Miami @ NY Jets
- While last week's loss to New England was certainly deflating for the Jets playoff hopes, they still have a wild card berth nearly locked up so hope is still high in Jersey. The key to this game will be how well the Jets run the ball because cold weather + important game = Mark Sanchez implosion when he's forced to throw the ball. Speaking of running the ball, LaDainian Tomlinson has slowed down a bit in recent weeks. I wrote about this earlier in the season but I was of the mind that his body and age would slow him up and he wouldn't keep up his hot start. He's gone over 100 yards this season one time. The last time he even ran for more than 60 yards was in Week Five. Look, all I'm trying to say is that Tomlinson is old and washed up.
Denver @ Arizona
- Interim coaches are 2-0 this season in their debut, which is the sole reason for me picking Denver. Seriously. I have no other reasoning.
Kansas City @ San Diego
- If San Diego loses this game, they will be eliminated from winning the AFC West. They won't be out of the wild card "mathematically," but believe me they'll be out of it. Crazy to think at how they've done with the amount of talent they have. Also worth noting in this game, Matt Cassel had an emergency appendectomy this week. I'm no medical expert, but I can't imagine him playing very well on such short rest after a rather major operation. And if he doesn't play, it appears to be Brodie Croyle under center. Not looking good for Kansas City this Sunday.
Philadelphia @ Dallas
- Dallas has been much improved since Jason Garrett took over for Wade Phillips, which further proves that Dallas had simply quit on Phillips. If Jerry Jones had made the move sooner, I bet we'd be discussing the playoff chances for Dallas. But for as well as they've played, I don't think they'll keep up with Philadelphia. The Eagles might be the fastest team in the league and their NFC leading 344 points prove that point. Ironically, for as good as the Eagles have been, they are only 8-4 and tied for first place. Without a win against the Giants earlier this season, the Eagles would actually be out of the playoffs because of an opening day loss to Green Bay. I find this all very interesting because as good as they are; they are one slip-up away from golfing on wild card weekend.
Baltimore @ Houston
- This game is a combination of Baltimore losing, Baltimore being angry, and Houston not being very good. It's shaping up for a blowout in Baltimore's favor. But don't worry, Houston still won't fire Gary Kubiak. They still have hope for finishing 9-7 and out of the playoffs yet again.
Last Week: 12-4
Entire Season: 123-69
Scott's Picks:
Indianapolis @ Tennessee
Cleveland @ Buffalo
Green Bay @ Detroit
New York Giants @ Minnesota
Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh
Tampa Bay @ Washington
Atlanta @ Carolina
Oakland
@ Jacksonville
Seattle
@ San Francisco
St. Louis @ New Orleans
New England @ Chicago
Miami @ NY Jets
Denver @ Arizona
Kansas City @ San Diego
Philadelphia @ Dallas
Baltimore @ Houston
Last Week: 12-4
Entire Season: 118-74
1. The Bills offensive line is a mess and might get destroyed on Sunday
2. The weather will be really bad
3. Jake Delhomme sucks
4. Peyton Hillis is going to plow through the Bills horrendous run defense
That's it. That's all I've been able to come up with. There is no possible way I can write a full preview when every thought I have centers around those four ideas. So I decided, at least for this week, that I would revert back to old form and just pick all the games and throw a few lines up about each game instead.
Picks are in bold.
Indianapolis @ Tennessee
- For the NFL wanting to showcase Thursday night football games and hold it against cable companies because they don't have the games, they are sure picking some awful matchups. Granted it isn't their fault and they can't predict the future, but these have been some crap games. The Falcons/Ravens game was a nice start, but it's been pure garbage since then, this game included. Next week we have San Diego and San Francisco. (How does San Francisco get so many primetime games?!?) The following week it's Carolina/Pittsburgh on Thursday and Dallas/Arizona on Saturday. I have a feeling some Time Warner executive is sitting back cackling about this and the NFL's demands to carry the network. Regardless, I'm glad I have them because sometimes any football is better than no football.
Back to the game though. I can't see any possible way that the Colts lose this game. For the first time that I can remember, their back is against the wall and their playoff hopes are in serious jeopardy. On top of that, Peyton Manning has been pure garbage for the past three weeks and he's going to eventually rebound in a big way. Luckily for all of us fantasy players, it's happening around fantasy playoff time. This is a huge change from previous years where Manning owners were carried to the playoffs and then screwed over as Indianapolis rested their starters.
On top of that, the Titans have fallen into the tank and are finished for the season. They are two games back in the division with games against the Colts, Texans, Chiefs, and Colts. There isn't an easy game remaining on the slate. Vince Young is finished for the season, Kerry Collins is showing his age, and Rusty Smith is Rusty Smith. All of this must be affecting CJ2K because he's rushed for 58 yards in the last two games combined. All of this leads to my one big question about Tennessee. At what point do people start pointing the finger at Jeff Fisher? There seems to be constant character issues in Tennessee and to be quite honest, what exactly has he done? He's been the coach for almost 20 years with only one Super Bowl appearance to date.
Cleveland @ Buffalo
Green Bay @ Detroit
- Crazy thought of the day. If the season were to end today, the Packers would not make the playoffs. A large part of this is because the awful NFC West will get a team in no matter what, but also because Chicago has a full game lead on Green Bay and the tie-breaker as of now. Because of all this, Green Bay is full must-win mode for the final four games of the season. They face the Giants and Bears in the final two weeks, the two teams ahead of them in the wild card and division. Combine this with the fact that they are playing Detroit, and there is no way Green Bay can lose this game.
New York Giants @ Minnesota
- If there was one annoying thing about last week's Vikings/Bills game, it was the whole "Tarvaris Jackson is good" idea that kept getting thrown out there. Listen, he wasn't good at all. His one touchdown was a toss-up to Sidney Rice, who made a great catch to pull it down in between two Buffalo defenders. But let's not get crazy. I could've thrown that pass. It wasn't Jackson's great pass at all; it was Rice's tremendous effort. On top of that, Jackson threw three interceptions to a defense that had four going into the day. The reason Minnesota won was because A)Adrian Peterson ran all over the league's worst run defense and B) The Bills turned the ball over five times, including twice that gave Minnesota the ball in the red zone and once on the one yard line where they were poised to score.
With all of the above in mind, the Giants will win this game. Their defense is much better than Buffalo's and they are a much more desperate team. They need to win this game to keep pace and setup a division deciding matchup next week against Philadelphia. Good teams don't lose the easy ones.
Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh
- When doing a little research on the Steelers, I came across one really impressive stat. Rashard Mendenhall has 1007 yards and nine touchdowns on the season. Normally that wouldn't be very impressive given the fact that he is good and the Steelers are also good, but it's amazing given the offensive line he has in front of him. This says a lot coming from a Bills fan, but the Steelers have the worst offensive line I've seen in a long time. The Bills have one of the worst defenses in recent memory and they were consistently putting pressure on Ben Roethlisberger. On top of that, the few times they were protecting him well was because they were always holding. I'm saying this as unbiased as I can, I have no idea how they are going to win in the playoffs with such a horrendous offensive line. They should win at least three of the next four games, but it will be interesting to see how this is addressed in the playoffs.
Tampa Bay @ Washington
- Tampa Bay pretty much blew their shot at the playoffs last week when they lost to Atlanta. Right now they are 7-5 and trail the Giants and Packers for the wild card. They would actually need a collapse from both teams (not happening) to gain the sixth seed. Even more of a long shot is to hope either New Orleans or Atlanta flop in the final four weeks and allow them to creep in. I've mentioned this before, but we can thank the awful NFC West for this, because as of now, the 6-6 St. Louis Rams would be hosting a playoff game. I addressed a similar issue in my fantasy league for next season; the NFL may want to do the same.
Atlanta @ Carolina
- When I was recently asked about how I'd pick for the Super Bowl, I said I'd have to pick Atlanta in the NFC if they have home-field throughout the playoffs. The formula is simple: the Falcons almost never lose at home. In three seasons, Matt Ryan has lost once inside the Georgia Dome. That is a crazy stat, but 100% true. Now that we know that, also know that the Falcons control their own destiny for the top seed in the NFC and have games against Carolina, Seattle, New Orleans, and Carolina. Three easy wins on that list and the hard game against New Orleans, it's at home. In other words, the Falcons have pretty much wrapped up home field throughout the playoffs.
Oakland @ Jacksonville
- I realize that Jacksonville is in first place in the AFC South and in the driver's seat to make the playoffs, but I refuse to believe they're a good team. They have exactly zero wins against teams with a record above .500. Their losses on the other hand, have come against teams with records of 6-6, 8-4, 5-7, 8-4, and 8-4. Do you see the point I'm making here? They play bad teams, they win. They play good teams, they lose. Sometimes it's really that simply. If the Jags somehow hold onto the South lead and host a playoff game, not only will it not sell out, but they'll be one and done for sure. Mark it down. The Jaguars are a joke.
Seattle @ San Francisco
- I have to think Seattle is going to win this game because right now they are dead-locked in first place at 6-6 with the Rams. That's my only reasoning. Well that and the 49ers aren't very good. Seattle beat them 31-6 on opening day and I don't see any reason why it would be different this week.
St. Louis @ New Orleans
- As of now, this would be a first round preview. Yikes. The Rams are much improved over past years, but they aren't beating the Saints on the road. To their credit though, the line is -8.5 for New Orleans and I think the Rams will at least cover the spread.
New England @ Chicago
- If we've learned one thing over the years, it's to not piss the Patriots off. The Jets pissed them off by constantly running their mouth without accomplishing anything and look what happened last Monday night. This week, Brian Urlacher came out and said the Bears are the best team in the NFL right now. I'm just guessing, but I don't think Tom Brady and company will respond very well to that.
Miami @ NY Jets
Denver @ Arizona
- Interim coaches are 2-0 this season in their debut, which is the sole reason for me picking Denver. Seriously. I have no other reasoning.
Kansas City @ San Diego
- If San Diego loses this game, they will be eliminated from winning the AFC West. They won't be out of the wild card "mathematically," but believe me they'll be out of it. Crazy to think at how they've done with the amount of talent they have. Also worth noting in this game, Matt Cassel had an emergency appendectomy this week. I'm no medical expert, but I can't imagine him playing very well on such short rest after a rather major operation. And if he doesn't play, it appears to be Brodie Croyle under center. Not looking good for Kansas City this Sunday.
Philadelphia @ Dallas
- Dallas has been much improved since Jason Garrett took over for Wade Phillips, which further proves that Dallas had simply quit on Phillips. If Jerry Jones had made the move sooner, I bet we'd be discussing the playoff chances for Dallas. But for as well as they've played, I don't think they'll keep up with Philadelphia. The Eagles might be the fastest team in the league and their NFC leading 344 points prove that point. Ironically, for as good as the Eagles have been, they are only 8-4 and tied for first place. Without a win against the Giants earlier this season, the Eagles would actually be out of the playoffs because of an opening day loss to Green Bay. I find this all very interesting because as good as they are; they are one slip-up away from golfing on wild card weekend.
Baltimore @ Houston
- This game is a combination of Baltimore losing, Baltimore being angry, and Houston not being very good. It's shaping up for a blowout in Baltimore's favor. But don't worry, Houston still won't fire Gary Kubiak. They still have hope for finishing 9-7 and out of the playoffs yet again.
Last Week: 12-4
Entire Season: 123-69
Scott's Picks:
Indianapolis @ Tennessee
Cleveland @ Buffalo
Green Bay @ Detroit
New York Giants @ Minnesota
Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh
Tampa Bay @ Washington
Atlanta @ Carolina
Oakland
@ Jacksonville
Seattle
@ San Francisco
St. Louis @ New Orleans
New England @ Chicago
Miami @ NY Jets
Denver @ Arizona
Kansas City @ San Diego
Philadelphia @ Dallas
Baltimore @ Houston
Last Week: 12-4
Entire Season: 118-74
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