Bills vs Jets Preview
10/02/2010 | Posted by
Devin
For the first time since 2004, the Bills will open the season with a 0-4 record. Sorry to put it so bluntly, but the Bills aren't a good team and the Jets are much better. When I projected the Bills schedule before the season, I said that the Bills would split the season series with the Jets. Despite my views on how much better the Jets are than the Bills, I still think that will be the case at the end of the season. Maybe. After this week, the Bills don't face the Jets until Week 17, so there is a very real possibility the the Bills will steal a win against the Jets backups. For the sake of getting a high draft pick, I almost hope this doesn't happen. We'll save that talk for Week 17 though, there is a game this Sunday to discuss.
Quarterbacks - For as much as I rip on The Sanchize, he is better than Ryan Fitzpatrick or Brian Brohm. Then again, that isn't saying much. The Sanchize has played very well in the past two weeks and it has a lot of people thinking he's turned the corner. Me? I'm not so sure. I'll get closer to that decision when we're about halfway through the season. Food for thought. In two games against Buffalo last year, The Sanchize threw for 223 yards, one touchdown and five interceptions.
Fitzpatrick is no Pro Bowl QB, but I think he can rack up some serious yards against the Jets. It looks like Revis Island will miss his second straight game, which would put mass producer Antonio Cromartie up against Lee Evans. As Fitzpatrick displayed last Sunday in New England, he isn't afraid to hit Roscoe Parrish and Stevie Johnson over the middle when they're open. If you think I'm crazy; consider this. The Jets currently rank 27th in the NFL in pass defense, allowing an average of 274.7 yards per game.
Running Backs - I have no idea what is going on with LaDainian Tomlinson. He apparently isn't totally
washed up like he appeared to be after his tenure in San Diego. My guess is he is rejuvenated and motivated, but does it last all season? Keep in mind, he's still 31 years old. Have you ever seen Rob Zombie's version of Halloween? (If not, I suggest you do.) There is a scene in the beginning where young Michael Myers beats a bully to death with a huge tree branch in a fit of rage. It's pretty brutal. If you know the scene I'm talking about, you know exactly what Shonn Greene has done to a number of my fantasy teams this year. Greene has 106 yards and zero touchdowns so far in three games. I could list the number of players that blew those numbers away in one game, but I think I've established my point already.
I like the Bills stable of running backs a lot more than the Jets, but unfortunately for Buffalo, they have to face the Jets run defense. Being optimistic, I can see the Bills maybe running for 50 yards combined (if they're lucky).
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends - I don't intend on sounding like a homer, but I'm not sold on the Jets receivers either. Jerricho Cotchery does nothing for me. Neither does David Clowney. If Brad Smith is lining up in the wildcat, I suppose he instills a little fear in me. And I only fear Braylon Edwards if he is driving on my street at 5AM.
Even without Revis, I'm not expecting much from Lee Evans. No slight against Lee, but this is what happens when he goes up against number one defenders every week. I've loved how Chan Gailey has worked Roscoe Parrish into the games so far this season. Since coming into the NFL and being completely mis-used by the Bills, the best season for Parrish was in 2007 when he grabbed 35 passes for for 352 yards. So far in three games this season, Parrish has nine receptions for 152 yards. I'm no mathematician, but it looks to me like this will be a career year for Roscoe.
Tight ends are another story. Dustin Keller is pretty good and the Bills are horrendous at stopping the tight end. For more information, please see exhibit A.
Exhibit A:
Those numbers are due in large part to the awful pass covering ability of Donte "Toast" Whitner and Chris Kelsay. I'd like to discuss this further but after the Bills gave Kelsay a $24MM extension, I'd rather just move on to another topic.
Defense: This came as a total shock to me, but the Bills have the 22nd overall defense in the NFL and the Jets only have the 20th. The Jets have the fourth overall run defense so their overall ranking is hurt by their all-of-a-sudden mediocre pass defense. I highlighted this above, but their pass defense will surely improve when Revis Island returns to the lineup from his injured hamstring (and ego).
Going into the season, I thought the strength of the Bills (if they even had one) would be their secondary. So far it's been a major disappointment. They are currently 18th in the NFL with an average of 221.3 yards per game. I still think the secondary is good, so I have to partially chalk this up to the competition. Facing Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady in consecutive weeks is no easy task. It will be interesting to see how they do this week for multiple reasons.
Special Teams: I have no idea how anybody would rank overall special teams. So I decided to look at two aspects of special teams to get a better grasp on things.
Kicking: Rian Lindell is 4/6 on the season, with his two misses being from 50+ yards. So in reality, he's been perfect this season.
Nick Folk is 6/7 on the season, with his one loss also being from 50+ yards. I would like to rip on Nick Folk for flopping last season and being released by Dallas, but Folk is the guy who helped pull off the ridiculous comeback Dallas had on MNF in Buffalo. Excuse me while I vomit.
Returns: Honestly, I know next to nothing about the Jets return game. I just looked it up on their depth chart and according to ESPN, Brad Smith is the main kick returner and Jim Leonhard is the punt returner. Uh, whatever. I suppose both are a threat to bring it back, but I'm not very worried.
This is one aspect during the Bills decade of awfulness that they continue to dominate. Currently C.J. Spiller is the main kick returner and he already showed what he can do last week against New England. In the event he isn't available, they have Leodis McKelvin, which aside from his fumble problems last opening day, is also an explosive kick returner.
Roscoe Parrish continues to return punts for Buffalo and honestly, he's a threat to bring it back every time. There are a few returners in the NFL who I legitimately think can take it back every time they touch the ball and Parrish is on that list. Maybe that is me partially being a homer, but give him a few blocks and he's gone. Trust me.
Prediction:. Jets 23, Bills 14.
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