NFL Picks – Week Five
10/08/2010 | Posted by
Devin
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Buffalo Bills - When I started realizing that the Bills had a real shot at going 0-16, I quickly looked up the schedule again to see if there were any potential wins remaining. I saw two. Jacksonville and Cleveland. Again, potential wins, not definite. Of course, all of this was before the Jaguars defeated the Colts last week. I know for a fact that the Bills wouldn't even be able to hang with the Colts, let alone beat them. That changed my mind on this game dramatically. The only way the Bills have a shot in this game is if they knock out David Garrard early and Captain Checkdown comes into play. That's my best case scenario for this game. (Jaguars)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals - I'm sure how I can explain the Begansl losing to Cleveland. This team is simply not a contender, despite a wealth of talent on the offensive side of the ball. I'd be hard pressed to argue that few QBs in the NFL have regressed quite like Carson Palmer has. He is a far cry from the player he was five years ago. (Bengals)
Atlanta Falcons @ Cleveland Browns - If the Falcons want to win the NFC South, they will need to win the winnable games. I know, sound logic. They are tied with New Orleans at 3-1 but currently have the tie-breaker. There is no way they continue that lead or build on it by losing to Cleveland. Nobody will take them seriously if that happens. It's bad enough they struggled against San Francisco and got bailed out by Nate Clements. (Falcons)
St. Louis Rams @ Detroit Lions - The Rams bottomed out for two straight years but they got their franchise QB in the process. Sam Bradford has been crazy good so far in the first four weeks. He has the Rams at 2-2, tied for first in the NFC West and he's doing it with really no good receivers around him. I find it especially impressive. (Rams)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Indianapolis Colts - I was going to say that the Chiefs will be brought back down to Earth this week as they are currently the lone remaining undefeated team, but I don't think anybody believes that they are for real anyways. For further proof, please see that the line for this game has Indianapolis favored by 8.5 points. In case you're wondering, that is the biggest line of the week. (Colts)
Green Bay Packers @ Washington Redskins - I have no idea what happened in the NFC East but it's suddenly turned into a giant pile of mediocrity. Washington is 2-2 and tied for first place. With three other 2-2 teams. It's like they're competing with the NFC West to see who can be worse and still make the playoffs. And just for the record, the 2-2 Rams already blew away the Redskins. That should tell you all you need to know. (Packers)
Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers - The Bears just aren't as good as their 3-1 record would indicate, but luckily for them, Carolina is worse. Personally, I'm shocked that Jimmy Clausen has struggled so far in the NFL. I thought for sure he would be a star after going to the greatest college EVER. (Bears)
Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens - I just want to thank Baltimore personally for taking down the Steelers at Heinz Field last Sunday. It was a little too close, considering the fact that the Steelers were starting Chaz Batch, but a win is a win. They need to keep the momentum rolling and steamroll the Broncos. (Ravens)
NY Giants @ Houston Texans - Thanks to Jacksonville, the Texans are alone in first place heading into Week Five. It's uncharted territory for Houston and they absolutely need to keep it going. The Jags aren't going to be any threat as the season goes on, so they need to hold on to the 1.5 game lead they have over Indianapolis. (Texans)
New Orleans @ Arizona Cardinals - Last season, New Orleans pounded the Cardinals 45-14 in the playoffs. Flash forward to this year, where the Cardinals are without Kurt Warner and are significantly worse, and yes, this game has blowout written all over it. Adding to the equation, the Cardinals are starting Max Hall at QB. Oh boy. (Saints)
San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders - This game will probably be closer than it should be, but mostly because the Chargers are the hardest team to get a handle on. I have no idea what to make of them right now. I'll answer that question in December. For now, they're on a week-to-week basis with me. (Chargers)
Tennessee Titans @ Dallas Cowboys - I'm pretty sure the Titans are the better team, but they're on the road and Dallas has had two full weeks to prepare for the game. (Cowboys)
Philadelphia Eagles @ San Francisco 49ers - I have no way to explain my logic behind this pick. Just a gut feeling, nothing more, nothing less. (49ers)
Minnesota Vikings @ NY Jets - Minnesota's trade for Randy Moss can go in a few different directions. One, it will give Minnesota fans a reason to dig through their closet and put on their old Moss jersey. I know I enjoyed this when the Bills brought back Peerless Price. Two, it will give the Vikings' offense someone to draw attention away from Adrian Peterson and Percy Harvin. Three, Brett Favre, a QB who historically likes to close his eyes and bomb the football, now has a receiver who can make plays on the other end and bail him out. Four, Moss flames out, the Vikings are without a third round pick in next year's draft and Brett Favre cashes his $20MM check while chuckling to himself on the farm. (NY Jets)
Last Week: 8-6
Entire Season: 38-24
Scott's Picks:
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Buffalo Bills
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals
Atlanta Falcons @ Cleveland Browns
St. Louis Rams @ Detroit Lions
Kansas City Chiefs @ Indianapolis Colts
Green Bay Packers @ Washington Redskins
Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers
Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens
NY Giants @ Houston Texans
New Orleans @ Arizona Cardinals
San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders
Tennessee Titans @ Dallas Cowboys
Philadelphia Eagles @ San Francisco 49ers
Minnesota Vikings @ NY Jets
Last Week: 9-5
Entire Season: 36-26
Fantasy Update:
Scott is now up 2-1. I'm clearly ahead of him in my league and he is the same in his league. Our BZ Staff League has gone back and forth and while we're both 3-1, he has scored way more points than me and took the lead by virtue of that tie-breaker.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals - I'm sure how I can explain the Begansl losing to Cleveland. This team is simply not a contender, despite a wealth of talent on the offensive side of the ball. I'd be hard pressed to argue that few QBs in the NFL have regressed quite like Carson Palmer has. He is a far cry from the player he was five years ago. (Bengals)
Atlanta Falcons @ Cleveland Browns - If the Falcons want to win the NFC South, they will need to win the winnable games. I know, sound logic. They are tied with New Orleans at 3-1 but currently have the tie-breaker. There is no way they continue that lead or build on it by losing to Cleveland. Nobody will take them seriously if that happens. It's bad enough they struggled against San Francisco and got bailed out by Nate Clements. (Falcons)
St. Louis Rams @ Detroit Lions - The Rams bottomed out for two straight years but they got their franchise QB in the process. Sam Bradford has been crazy good so far in the first four weeks. He has the Rams at 2-2, tied for first in the NFC West and he's doing it with really no good receivers around him. I find it especially impressive. (Rams)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Indianapolis Colts - I was going to say that the Chiefs will be brought back down to Earth this week as they are currently the lone remaining undefeated team, but I don't think anybody believes that they are for real anyways. For further proof, please see that the line for this game has Indianapolis favored by 8.5 points. In case you're wondering, that is the biggest line of the week. (Colts)
Green Bay Packers @ Washington Redskins - I have no idea what happened in the NFC East but it's suddenly turned into a giant pile of mediocrity. Washington is 2-2 and tied for first place. With three other 2-2 teams. It's like they're competing with the NFC West to see who can be worse and still make the playoffs. And just for the record, the 2-2 Rams already blew away the Redskins. That should tell you all you need to know. (Packers)
Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers - The Bears just aren't as good as their 3-1 record would indicate, but luckily for them, Carolina is worse. Personally, I'm shocked that Jimmy Clausen has struggled so far in the NFL. I thought for sure he would be a star after going to the greatest college EVER. (Bears)
Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens - I just want to thank Baltimore personally for taking down the Steelers at Heinz Field last Sunday. It was a little too close, considering the fact that the Steelers were starting Chaz Batch, but a win is a win. They need to keep the momentum rolling and steamroll the Broncos. (Ravens)
NY Giants @ Houston Texans - Thanks to Jacksonville, the Texans are alone in first place heading into Week Five. It's uncharted territory for Houston and they absolutely need to keep it going. The Jags aren't going to be any threat as the season goes on, so they need to hold on to the 1.5 game lead they have over Indianapolis. (Texans)
New Orleans @ Arizona Cardinals - Last season, New Orleans pounded the Cardinals 45-14 in the playoffs. Flash forward to this year, where the Cardinals are without Kurt Warner and are significantly worse, and yes, this game has blowout written all over it. Adding to the equation, the Cardinals are starting Max Hall at QB. Oh boy. (Saints)
San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders - This game will probably be closer than it should be, but mostly because the Chargers are the hardest team to get a handle on. I have no idea what to make of them right now. I'll answer that question in December. For now, they're on a week-to-week basis with me. (Chargers)
Tennessee Titans @ Dallas Cowboys - I'm pretty sure the Titans are the better team, but they're on the road and Dallas has had two full weeks to prepare for the game. (Cowboys)
Philadelphia Eagles @ San Francisco 49ers - I have no way to explain my logic behind this pick. Just a gut feeling, nothing more, nothing less. (49ers)
Minnesota Vikings @ NY Jets - Minnesota's trade for Randy Moss can go in a few different directions. One, it will give Minnesota fans a reason to dig through their closet and put on their old Moss jersey. I know I enjoyed this when the Bills brought back Peerless Price. Two, it will give the Vikings' offense someone to draw attention away from Adrian Peterson and Percy Harvin. Three, Brett Favre, a QB who historically likes to close his eyes and bomb the football, now has a receiver who can make plays on the other end and bail him out. Four, Moss flames out, the Vikings are without a third round pick in next year's draft and Brett Favre cashes his $20MM check while chuckling to himself on the farm. (NY Jets)
Last Week: 8-6
Entire Season: 38-24
Scott's Picks:
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Buffalo Bills
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals
Atlanta Falcons @ Cleveland Browns
St. Louis Rams @ Detroit Lions
Kansas City Chiefs @ Indianapolis Colts
Green Bay Packers @ Washington Redskins
Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers
Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens
NY Giants @ Houston Texans
New Orleans @ Arizona Cardinals
San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders
Tennessee Titans @ Dallas Cowboys
Philadelphia Eagles @ San Francisco 49ers
Minnesota Vikings @ NY Jets
Last Week: 9-5
Entire Season: 36-26
Fantasy Update:
Scott is now up 2-1. I'm clearly ahead of him in my league and he is the same in his league. Our BZ Staff League has gone back and forth and while we're both 3-1, he has scored way more points than me and took the lead by virtue of that tie-breaker.
Labels:
NFL Picks
End of an Era: Marshawn Lynch
10/05/2010 | Posted by
Devin
The Bills finally solved their three-headed running back situation on Tuesday by shipping Marshawn Lynch off to Seattle for a fourth round pick in 2011 and a conditional pick in 2012. On the surface, this is a good deal for the Bills, Seahawks and Lynch. Let me explain.
It was a good deal for the Bills because like I said above, it solves their running back situation. While running Lynch, they were taking carries away from Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller. Now the Bills can effectively use Jackson as the number one back and let Spiller see some more action. On the surface, this is a great move. Although I suppose I have to remind everyone that the Bills are still terrible and it most likely won't make a huge difference.
The Bills also got a good return for Lynch. In terms of draft picks, the Bills might have been able to score a
third round pick, but that is very doubtful. So getting a fourth and a conditional is the next best thing. They also weren't going to get a player of any interest to help them this season. Keep in mind, this year has been renamed Operation Bottom Out. A draft pick is much more preferred over some random bench warmer. Let's just hope Buddy Nix uses the pick wisely. This was a good deal for Seattle because they just picked up a number one running back for a fourth round pick and a conditional pick. Small price to pay for a guy in his fourth year and ran for 1,000 yards in his first two. Besides Justin Forsett, there really isn't much going on in Seattle's backfield. Keep in mind, this is a division where 8-8 can win it, so Seattle needs to improve now and take advantage of the situation.
I'd be remiss in discussing Lynch if I didn't bring up his legal troubles. Lynch has had two run-ins with the law already and is most likely one more incident away from a year long suspension. So with that in mind, Seattle also took a bit of a risk. The way I see it, this lowered his trade value considerably which is why I'm so happy with what the Bills got in return.
Finally, this is a good deal for Lynch. He wanted out of Buffalo and needed a change of scenery. The city embraced Beast Mode early in his career, but the fans quickly became sick of his off the field transgressions. Lynch was also not getting a full workload because again, he was sharing carries with Jackson and Spiller. While he still might share carries with Forsett in Seattle, sharing with one instead of two is a better thing for all involved.
I was a huge fan of Lynch when he was drafted by the Bills. I was willing to look past his first incident. Then came his second and I quickly quoted on Facebook, "I don't want felons on my team." I still stand by that statement. Last year I couldn't stand Lynch. He looked fat and uninterested in helping the team. I've had a brief change of heart this year because he's looked much better on the field and I'd like to think he's not stupid enough to screw up again off the field.
All in all, this is a slightly sad day for me as a Bills fan. I know it's for the betterment of the franchise and for Lynch, but I'll miss him. He was a knucklehead, but there were lots of good times mixed in as well. Lynch took the sting away when the Bills traded Willis McGahee, who set the world record for being my favorite current Bill to the guy I couldn't stand anymore. For that, I'll always appreciate those few good years with Lynch.
Best of luck Marshawn.
Bills vs Jets Preview
10/02/2010 | Posted by
Devin
For the first time since 2004, the Bills will open the season with a 0-4 record. Sorry to put it so bluntly, but the Bills aren't a good team and the Jets are much better. When I projected the Bills schedule before the season, I said that the Bills would split the season series with the Jets. Despite my views on how much better the Jets are than the Bills, I still think that will be the case at the end of the season. Maybe. After this week, the Bills don't face the Jets until Week 17, so there is a very real possibility the the Bills will steal a win against the Jets backups. For the sake of getting a high draft pick, I almost hope this doesn't happen. We'll save that talk for Week 17 though, there is a game this Sunday to discuss.
Quarterbacks - For as much as I rip on The Sanchize, he is better than Ryan Fitzpatrick or Brian Brohm. Then again, that isn't saying much. The Sanchize has played very well in the past two weeks and it has a lot of people thinking he's turned the corner. Me? I'm not so sure. I'll get closer to that decision when we're about halfway through the season. Food for thought. In two games against Buffalo last year, The Sanchize threw for 223 yards, one touchdown and five interceptions.
Fitzpatrick is no Pro Bowl QB, but I think he can rack up some serious yards against the Jets. It looks like Revis Island will miss his second straight game, which would put mass producer Antonio Cromartie up against Lee Evans. As Fitzpatrick displayed last Sunday in New England, he isn't afraid to hit Roscoe Parrish and Stevie Johnson over the middle when they're open. If you think I'm crazy; consider this. The Jets currently rank 27th in the NFL in pass defense, allowing an average of 274.7 yards per game.
Running Backs - I have no idea what is going on with LaDainian Tomlinson. He apparently isn't totally
washed up like he appeared to be after his tenure in San Diego. My guess is he is rejuvenated and motivated, but does it last all season? Keep in mind, he's still 31 years old. Have you ever seen Rob Zombie's version of Halloween? (If not, I suggest you do.) There is a scene in the beginning where young Michael Myers beats a bully to death with a huge tree branch in a fit of rage. It's pretty brutal. If you know the scene I'm talking about, you know exactly what Shonn Greene has done to a number of my fantasy teams this year. Greene has 106 yards and zero touchdowns so far in three games. I could list the number of players that blew those numbers away in one game, but I think I've established my point already.
I like the Bills stable of running backs a lot more than the Jets, but unfortunately for Buffalo, they have to face the Jets run defense. Being optimistic, I can see the Bills maybe running for 50 yards combined (if they're lucky).
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends - I don't intend on sounding like a homer, but I'm not sold on the Jets receivers either. Jerricho Cotchery does nothing for me. Neither does David Clowney. If Brad Smith is lining up in the wildcat, I suppose he instills a little fear in me. And I only fear Braylon Edwards if he is driving on my street at 5AM.
Even without Revis, I'm not expecting much from Lee Evans. No slight against Lee, but this is what happens when he goes up against number one defenders every week. I've loved how Chan Gailey has worked Roscoe Parrish into the games so far this season. Since coming into the NFL and being completely mis-used by the Bills, the best season for Parrish was in 2007 when he grabbed 35 passes for for 352 yards. So far in three games this season, Parrish has nine receptions for 152 yards. I'm no mathematician, but it looks to me like this will be a career year for Roscoe.
Tight ends are another story. Dustin Keller is pretty good and the Bills are horrendous at stopping the tight end. For more information, please see exhibit A.
Exhibit A:
Those numbers are due in large part to the awful pass covering ability of Donte "Toast" Whitner and Chris Kelsay. I'd like to discuss this further but after the Bills gave Kelsay a $24MM extension, I'd rather just move on to another topic.
Defense: This came as a total shock to me, but the Bills have the 22nd overall defense in the NFL and the Jets only have the 20th. The Jets have the fourth overall run defense so their overall ranking is hurt by their all-of-a-sudden mediocre pass defense. I highlighted this above, but their pass defense will surely improve when Revis Island returns to the lineup from his injured hamstring (and ego).
Going into the season, I thought the strength of the Bills (if they even had one) would be their secondary. So far it's been a major disappointment. They are currently 18th in the NFL with an average of 221.3 yards per game. I still think the secondary is good, so I have to partially chalk this up to the competition. Facing Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady in consecutive weeks is no easy task. It will be interesting to see how they do this week for multiple reasons.
Special Teams: I have no idea how anybody would rank overall special teams. So I decided to look at two aspects of special teams to get a better grasp on things.
Kicking: Rian Lindell is 4/6 on the season, with his two misses being from 50+ yards. So in reality, he's been perfect this season.
Nick Folk is 6/7 on the season, with his one loss also being from 50+ yards. I would like to rip on Nick Folk for flopping last season and being released by Dallas, but Folk is the guy who helped pull off the ridiculous comeback Dallas had on MNF in Buffalo. Excuse me while I vomit.
Returns: Honestly, I know next to nothing about the Jets return game. I just looked it up on their depth chart and according to ESPN, Brad Smith is the main kick returner and Jim Leonhard is the punt returner. Uh, whatever. I suppose both are a threat to bring it back, but I'm not very worried.
This is one aspect during the Bills decade of awfulness that they continue to dominate. Currently C.J. Spiller is the main kick returner and he already showed what he can do last week against New England. In the event he isn't available, they have Leodis McKelvin, which aside from his fumble problems last opening day, is also an explosive kick returner.
Roscoe Parrish continues to return punts for Buffalo and honestly, he's a threat to bring it back every time. There are a few returners in the NFL who I legitimately think can take it back every time they touch the ball and Parrish is on that list. Maybe that is me partially being a homer, but give him a few blocks and he's gone. Trust me.
Prediction:. Jets 23, Bills 14.
End of an Era: Kawika Mitchell
10/01/2010 | Posted by
Devin
In the 2010 NFL season, better known to Bills fans as Operation Bottom Out, the Bills released another veteran player who never really amounted to much in Buffalo. Just days after releasing Captain Checkdown, the Bills also reached an injury settlement with Kawika Mitchell, who at the time was on injured reserve.
I think Mitchell’s signing in Buffalo can be traced back to December 23, 2007. On this day, the New York Giants made a trip to Ralph Wilson Stadium to face the Bills. I remember that game and thought it was just another meaningless game (it was). I also never thought the Giants had a shot at going anywhere in the playoffs that season, let alone winning the Super Bowl. The Bills were ahead in the fourth quarter until in typical Trent Edwards fashion, he threw an interception that was returned for a touchdown. The man who made the play? Kawika Mitchell.
Fast forward to the next season when Mitchell is on the Bills. The Bills started out 5-1 that season and were
led by Mitchell, who made a couple of big plays including a game ending interception against the Chargers. From that point on....nothing.
Mitchell literally did nothing. He would play in 15 more games for the Bills, amassing two sacks and one interception. Like usual for the Bills, it wasn’t money well spent.
Mitchell went on IR last season and was poised for a return this year. Then he got injured right before the season started and the Bills put him on injured reserve again. At first glance, this reeked of a typical Bills move and I felt bad for Mitchell. But then I read, via his Twitter, that it was a 12 week injury. At that point, I figured the Bills were well within their rights to put him on injured reserve. It’s not like he was going to come back and make an impact in the final five games of the season.
For whatever reason, Mitchell asked for his release today and the Bills promptly obliged with an injury settlement that set him free. Be careful what you wish for. He’s still hurt and I don’t think there will be teams knocking down his door for his services. Or at least I wouldn’t be if I were a GM.
Another thing to consider if you’re a GM. This is a player who twice ripped the organization he worked for on his Twitter site. Last year he ripped the Bills to shreds for picking up Richie Incognito off waivers. You know, never mind the fact that the Bills were decimated at offensive line and he could help the team (something Mitchell wasn’t doing). Then this year he did it again when the Bills released Trent Edwards.
Overall I like the move for the Bills. They need to get rid of the higher priced veterans and make way for the younger players. You don’t effectively rebuild and start over by treading water and signing guys like Mitchell. His signing essentially represents everything that was wrong with the Dick Jauron era.
It also gets rid of a tough talker on Twitter that never backed it up on the field. If only they would release Donte Whitner, we would be set.
I think Mitchell’s signing in Buffalo can be traced back to December 23, 2007. On this day, the New York Giants made a trip to Ralph Wilson Stadium to face the Bills. I remember that game and thought it was just another meaningless game (it was). I also never thought the Giants had a shot at going anywhere in the playoffs that season, let alone winning the Super Bowl. The Bills were ahead in the fourth quarter until in typical Trent Edwards fashion, he threw an interception that was returned for a touchdown. The man who made the play? Kawika Mitchell.
Fast forward to the next season when Mitchell is on the Bills. The Bills started out 5-1 that season and were
led by Mitchell, who made a couple of big plays including a game ending interception against the Chargers. From that point on....nothing. Mitchell literally did nothing. He would play in 15 more games for the Bills, amassing two sacks and one interception. Like usual for the Bills, it wasn’t money well spent.
Mitchell went on IR last season and was poised for a return this year. Then he got injured right before the season started and the Bills put him on injured reserve again. At first glance, this reeked of a typical Bills move and I felt bad for Mitchell. But then I read, via his Twitter, that it was a 12 week injury. At that point, I figured the Bills were well within their rights to put him on injured reserve. It’s not like he was going to come back and make an impact in the final five games of the season.
For whatever reason, Mitchell asked for his release today and the Bills promptly obliged with an injury settlement that set him free. Be careful what you wish for. He’s still hurt and I don’t think there will be teams knocking down his door for his services. Or at least I wouldn’t be if I were a GM.
Another thing to consider if you’re a GM. This is a player who twice ripped the organization he worked for on his Twitter site. Last year he ripped the Bills to shreds for picking up Richie Incognito off waivers. You know, never mind the fact that the Bills were decimated at offensive line and he could help the team (something Mitchell wasn’t doing). Then this year he did it again when the Bills released Trent Edwards.
Overall I like the move for the Bills. They need to get rid of the higher priced veterans and make way for the younger players. You don’t effectively rebuild and start over by treading water and signing guys like Mitchell. His signing essentially represents everything that was wrong with the Dick Jauron era.
It also gets rid of a tough talker on Twitter that never backed it up on the field. If only they would release Donte Whitner, we would be set.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Follow Us
