Sunday, January 18, 2009

6:30 PM EST - CBS Sports

Baltimore Ravens (13-5) VS Pittsburgh Steelers (13-4)

It would be easy for me to tell you that as soon as the playoff brackets were finalized, this was the matchup I had for the AFC Championship, but since there is no documentation of this fact, you'll have to take my word for it. The reasoning behind that pick is a simple one. I'm a firm believer in the old adage that defense wins championships. Well, it doesn't get any better than #1 vs. #2 right? The Steelers and their top ranked defense will host the second best unit in the league when the Ravens come to Pittsburgh for the AFC Championship.

These teams are certainly no stranger to one another, both residing in the AFC North, they've already faced off two times this season. Pittsburgh won both of those games, but they were very tight contests and I think we can expect the same this coming Sunday. Nearly every time these two teams do battle, it's a close, hard hitting game and a chance to go to the Super Bowl will only serve to amplify those facts. Before we take a look at the previous matchups from this season, let's first see how both teams made it this far.

Baltimore snuck into the postseason as the 6th seed, edging out New England for the final Wild Card spot. As the final seed, they were forced to win on the road if they wanted to progress in the playoffs. Their first stop was South Beach, to battle the AFC East Champion Miami Dolphins. To nobody's surpise, Baltimore used it's stellar defensive play to force 5 turnovers out of a team who has only coughed up 13 in the regular season. NFL Comeback Player of the Year, Chad Pennington has perhaps his worst performance of the season, throwing 4 interceptions, as the Ravens dominated the Dolphin offense. Baltimore walked away with a 27-9 victory, advancing to face the top seeded Tennessee Titans.

Tennessee had a very stout defense of their own, and there was some concern as to whether or not rookie QB Joe Flacco would be effective in leading the Raven offense. As it would turn out, he didn't necessarily have to be, as the defense continued to prove itself as Baltimore's best weapon. The Titans were also stingy with turnovers throughout the regular season, but the Ravens managed to force 3, while not giving up the ball themselves. With less than a minute to go, Matt Stover kicked a 43 yard field goal to put the Ravens up 13-10, which proved to be the final score.

Pittsburgh finished the regular season with the 2nd best record in the AFC, and in the process, earned themselves a first round bye. After San Diego managed to knock off the early favorite of many in the Indianapolis Colts, they headed to Heinz Field to face the Steelers. As if Pittsburgh's league best defense needed any extra help, they got it when LaDainian Tomlinson was ruled out of the game due to an injured groin. Still, many were impressed by the performance of his replacement, Darren Sproles in the Indy game, and thought he would be capable of putting up big numbers yet again. Pittsburgh had other ideas though. The Steelers took away San Diego's ground attack completely, holding the Chargers to a mere 15 yards on the ground. Despite good numbers from Phillip Rivers, the Steelers has an answer for him as well. In what has to be one of the most lopsided quarters in playoff history, Pittsburgh held the ball for 14:47 in the 3rd quarter, allowing San Diego only one play, which was an interception thrown by Rivers. Willie Parker lead a ground control attack, on his way to 146 yards and 2 TDs. The Steelers never looked back and advanced with a 35-24 victory.

As I stated earlier, these two teams are very familiar with one another as division rivals. Their first contest of the season took place in week 4 on Monday Night Football in Pittsburgh. Close is far and away the best word for this game. Statistically, there was very little difference between the teams in what turned out to be a game marred by injuries. Baltimore ran the ball fairly well even after Willis McGahee was knocked out of the game, as Le'Ron McClain picked up the slack. Joe Flacco only threw for 192 yards, but 137 of them went to the man who has become his primary target, Derrick Mason. The difference making play in the game came as James Harrison, who had 10.5 tackles and 2 sacks in the game, hit Flacco and forced a fumble, which LaMarr Woodley then picked up and ran into the end zone. McClain would score late in the 4th quarter to tie up the game, but in overtime, Pittsburgh marched down the field with their first possession and Jeff Reed hit a 46 yard field goal to give the Steelers the 23-20 victory.

Baltimore would have to wait until week 15 to have a chance at revenge, as the Steelers headed to M&T Bank Stadium. The Ravens once again ran the ball fairly effectively against the usually stingy Pittsburgh defense, but Joe Flacco would struggle, managing only 115 yards passing and 2 interceptions. Despite this, Baltimore found itself leading 9-6 late in the 4th quarter. Ben Roethlisberger (22-40, 246 yards) would go 7-11 during a 92 yard drive and find Santonio Holmes on a 4 yard TD with under a minute remaining. There was some controversy however as the TD had to be reviewed. Holmes was standing in the end zone with his arms outstretched in front of him, in the field of play, as he caught the ball, and was hit from behind knocking him back into the playing field at nearly the same time. The review ruled that the ball had broken the plain of the goal line when Holmes caught it and therefore the TD was good. Pittsburgh snuck away with a 13-9 win.

With the track record between these two teams, and the two tight battles from this season, it stands to reason that more of the same can be expected in Pittsburgh this weekend. Both teams will be coming into this game fairly healthy this time around, with only the Ravens possibly missing a few key players. So far, the Ravens have relied very heavily on their defensive playmakers creating turnovers to advance in the postseason, while Pittsburgh showed a bit more offensive prowess in their victory over San Diego. Willie Parker looked very good against the Chargers, but the Chargers defense can't really be compared to that of the Ravens either. I'd expect them to slow him down greatly, and force Big Ben to make plays instead. Pittsburgh will likely try a similar tactic in making Joe Flacco have to win the game for Baltimore. Flacco is the first rookie QB to win 2 postseason games, but he has merely managed both wins thus far.

Roethlisberger may only be in his 5th season, but he obviously has a big experience advantage in this matchup, having already won a Super Bowl in his short time in the league. Ben has not been known to be a big play quarterback so far in his career, instead also playing the manager role for the Steelers. He has however shown flashes of brilliance with an occassional 300+ yard, multi-touchdown game. I would suspect you won't see one of those against the Ravens however.

The keys to winning this game for both teams are very similar. Whichever team is able to establish the run first and take some of the pressure off their quarterback will hold the advantage. Both defenses are simply going to bring it and turnovers will likely play a huge role in this game as well. I would put money on the fact that there will be a defensive touchdown scored in this game at some point. While I don't think either team will be particularly successful in their running attack, I'd give the edge to Willie Parker and the Steelers, again, based on experience.

Key matchups for this game also look similar for both teams. For Baltimore, it will be the play of Joe Flacco facing Pro Bowlers at linebacker in James Harrison and safety in Troy Polamalu. Flacco is going to have to be kept away from Harrison as well as LaMarr Woodley to avoid making mistakes and if he can't, Polamalu is the type of player that always capitalizes. The Ravens offensive line has their work cut out for them stopping the Steelers blitzes as well as trying to make space in the middle for the running game against big tackle Casey Hampton. By contrast, Pittsburgh faces much the same issue. This time, it's Roethlisberger facing Pro Bowlers Ray Lewis and Ed Reed. Much has been made about Ed Reed in recent weeks, with some going so far as to call him the best player in football right now. I don't agree and I think it's simply a case of most people in the media being infatuated with what's happening right this second. Surely I'm not going to discount Reed's big play ability, but his tackling has been highly suspect as of late. He has dealt with some neck and shoulder injuries and it's very obvious when you watch him try to bring guys down. He has done a lot of arm tackling lately and not lead with his shoulder. Watch for this to play a role if Parker manages to get past the nasty Raven linebackers and into the secondary. Additionally, Pittsburgh has been running several plays from a Trips Bunch package. 3 WRs lined up tight together, interweaving routes and generally breaking down the defense into leaving one guy open. These are middle range routes and are going to require the safeties coming up to make the tackles.

All this being said, I still think this is going to be a fairly low scoring, defensive battle, you'd almost be foolish to say otherwise. Ultimately, I think it comes down to Flacco being pressured or not. If the Steelers can't get to him for some reason, the Ravens will have their best shot at a victory. I just don't see that being the case though. The Steelers fans will be crazy as ever with Terrible Towels in hand and they'll pump up their defense to make big plays. I see this one coming down to a turnover forced in the 4th quarter leading to Pittsburgh getting the late game winning score yet again. Steelers 20-13.