NFC Championship Preview
The two highest powered offenses in the league will meet up on Sunday as the Minnesota Vikings head to New Orleans to take on the Saints for the right to advance to the Super Bowl. The Vikings were efficient on offense in dispatching of the Dallas Cowboys last weekend, but it was the defense that proved most impressive. They held Dallas to just 3 points and 248 total yards en route to a 34-3 victory. Brett Favre continued his terrific season by throwing 4 TD passes, including 3 to his new favorite target, Sidney Rice. Adrian Peterson continued to struggle however, managing just 63 yards on 26 carries, numbers that have to be at least a little concerning to Vikings fans.
As impressive as the Vikings were offensively this year, the Saints were even better. They quickly eliminated any doubt that existed after dropping their last 3 regular season games, in which they only managed 17 points in each, by absolutely making the Arizona Cardinals look silly. The final score read 45-14 in the Saints favor, but I'm not even sure it was actually that close. Tim Hightower broke off a 70 yard touchdown run to put the Cardinals up 7-0 on their first play, but the Saints responded, with a vengeance. By the time the first quarter ended, it was 21-7 New Orleans, and the Saints didn't look back. New Orleans got contributions from everybody on offense while piling up 418 yards, but Reggie Bush was the star of the day. Bush had 5 carries for 84 yards, including a 46 yard touchdown run, and also added an 83 yard punt return touchdown to put the finishing touches on the game. Drew Brees tossed 3 touchdowns in another solid effort, while 4 different receivers had at least 4 catches. The defense also played fairly well, holding the high powered Cardinal offense to just the two scores.
Based on what we've seen all season long and thus far in the playoffs, there is no reason to doubt that this game will be anything short of an offensive slugfest. So the question becomes which defense can do just enough to propel their team to victory? Well, at first glance, the Vikings defense seems to be the stronger of the two and Tony Romo would likely verify that for you if you asked him. Romo was sacked 6 times and hit another 4 as he was under pressure all day long against Minnesota. The Vikings forced 3 turnovers and had 11 tackles for a loss as well on the day and really prevented Dallas from moving the ball successfully at all. Granted, New Orleans has a better offense and more options to attack with, but they aren't going to be facing the Cardinals again. Arizona's defense was torched 2 weeks in a row and didn't put up much resistance against the Saints. New Orleans did manage to hold the Cardinals in check for the most part, forcing Arizona to pass a great deal once a big lead was established. The Cardinals put up decent numbers in the passing game, but again, it's tough to tell if that was because New Orleans was relaxed with a big lead or not. It is clear though that the Saints could not get to the quarterback anywhere near as successfully as Minnesota did.
From the Vikings point of view, that amount of pressure is going be needed again this week. If they can get to Drew Brees and disrupt his timing, it will go a long ways towards slowing down the Saints offense. This is of course easier said than done though. Brees is much like Peyton Manning in that he is very intelligent at reading defenses and knowing what's available to him before the snap. This results in a relatively low number of sacks as Brees gets rid of the ball quickly for the most part. It doesn't hurt that he usually has a ton of options to throw to either. Between Marques Colston, Robert Meachem, Devery Henderson, Jeremy Shockey, and Reggie Bush out of the backfield, somebody is usually relatively open. One thing is for sure, if the Vikings fail to get pressure on him, it won't be for a lack of trying. They're going to bring the heat all day and live or die by it. On the offensive side of the ball, it would greatly benefit Minnesota if they could finally get their star running back to return to previous form. Adrian Peterson dominated for about the first 3 quarters of the season, but his production has slowed greatly since. Whether this is due to Brett Favre becoming pass happy and audibling out of run plays or not is still a bit of a mystery, but the results have been obvious. Peterson hasn't topped 100 yards since Week 10 against Detroit and has had games of 19, 35, 54 and last week's 63 yards during the stretch since. Being able to control the ball and therefore keep it out of the hands of Drew Brees would be extremely beneficial in helping the Vikings reach the Super Bowl.
It would stand to reason that the opposites would be true for New Orleans. If they can keep Brees upright and give him time to make throws, he'll prove why he is one of the best quarterbacks in the game. This depends directly on the success of the Saints rushing attack. Last week was probably the best ground attack the Saints have managed in awhile, but it was also against an Arizona defense that has looked like Swiss Cheese as of late. Still, the reemergence of Reggie Bush had to be a welcome sight for Saints fans, as he has had more downs than ups as of late. If he can combine with Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell to carve out even a decent day on the ground, it should help to buy the Saints some time with their pass block. If they fail to do so, letting the Vikings tee off all day is going to be tough to deal with. Defensively, the Saints should fair a little better against Favre and the Vikings passing game. The Cowboys are rather weak in the secondary and really showed no effort in trying to stop Sidney Rice last week. I expect the Saints DBs to put up a much better fight. They did a solid job keeping Larry Fitzgerald, Early Doucet, and Steve Breaston in check just a week after all three tore up Green Bay. Brett Favre threw very few interceptions this year, but it's something he's been prone to in the past due to forcing plays more than he should. If the Saints could get him to turn the ball over a couple of times and get Brees and company some extra possessions, they would be pretty tough to defeat.
Almost everybody I've seen is picking Minnesota with a fair bit of confidence this week. I understand that if their defense plays like it did last week, New Orleans is in for a very long day, but for some reason, I don't see them having the same success. Instead, I'm imaging a game more like the Vikings contest against Arizona in Week 13, where Favre attempts a ton of passes and ends up throwing some costly interceptions. The Cardinals completely shut down Peterson in that game, so it is certainly attainable for the Saints. I think turnovers determine the winner and Drew Brees makes the most of his chances.
My Pick: New Orleans (-4) over Minnesota
AFC Championship: Indianapolis (-7.5) over NY Jets
I think the matchup of New Orleans and Indianapolis with perhaps the 2 most talented quarterbacks in the game would be amazingly entertaining, not to mention the thought of a Minnesota/NY Jets Super Bowl complete with 2 weeks of Favre Hype and Rex Ryan quotes gives me severe indigestion. It's the Super Bowl, and since my team is never involved anymore, it needs to appeal me on some level, so I'm totally picking with my heart this weekend.
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