NHL Playoffs: 1st Round Predictions
WESTERN CONFERENCE
San Jose Sharks (1) vs Anaheim Ducks (8)
The Sharks are coming off an impressive regular season which netted them the President’s Trophy after finishing with a 53-18-11 record, including 32-5-4 at home. However, we’ve seen this show before. For the past several seasons the Sharks have had a very solid season, only to fall far short of the Stanley Cup once the playoffs start.
The Ducks finished off a wildly inconsistent season where they squeezed into the playoffs finishing two points above ninth place Minnesota. The Ducks finished the season going 7-2-1 in their last 10 games and finished with a better road record than home for the regular season.
I still don’t see those factors being enough to allow Anaheim to pull off the first round upset. San Jose has the better overall team, more consistent goaltending and they have been on a mission all season to be the best team in the league.
My Prediction: San Jose in 6 games
Detroit Red Wings (2) vs Columbus Blue Jackets (7)
I’ve said this before, but Detroit is a franchise that I’m quite envious of. Despite having a salary cap after the lockout, Detroit has maintained their dominance and continued to win consistently. After winning the Stanley Cup last season, Detroit only went out and picked up Marian Hossa who chipped in 40 goals and 31 assists. I think if Detroit has one glaring weakness, its goaltending; however Chris Osgood seems to have a second gear that kicks in once the playoffs start. It will be interesting to see if he struggles since Dave Babcock has shown he is willing to make the switch between the pipes, much like he did last year.
Columbus has been a good story this season and they’ve earned their first playoff berth in franchise history. Rookie goaltender Steve Mason has been absolutely amazing going 33-20-7 with a solid 10 shutouts. There should be an all out conspiracy theory started if he doesn’t win both the Calder trophy and the Vezina this summer.
The Jackets will provide a good fight for Detroit, but ultimately I don’t see them winning this series. A lot of playoff match-ups come down to experience and Detroit has an overwhelming advantage in that category. I was going to predict this series ending in very few games, but Detroit has shown some slow starts in the first round before kicking it up so I’m taking that trend into consideration.
My Prediction: Detroit in 6 games
Vancouver Canucks (3) vs St Louis Blues (6)
As stated several times in my NHL rankings, the Canucks heated up in the second half and were easily one of the best teams in the league. They finished the season winning three in a row to net them a division title and home ice in the first round finishing just two points ahead of Calgary.
The Blues were on the verge of missing the playoffs one week ago, but instead of fading away, they turned it up a notch and took control of their own destiny. They finished 8-1-1 in their last 10 including a 1-0 shutout on the final day of the season which would’ve been the difference between facing the Canucks and facing the Sharks in the first round.
Both teams have been hot down the stretch and this should be an excellent match-up. I think when considering a series like this, there has to be one factor that stands out above all when making a prediction. In this series, it has to be goaltending. This is no knock on the Blues goaltending situation, but Roberto Luongo is one of the few goalies that falls into that “elite” category, and he will be the difference this spring for Vancouver.
My Prediction: Vancouver in 5 games
Chicago Blackhawks (4) vs Calgary Flames (5)
The Blackhawks finished off an impressive regular season which saw them eclipse the 100 point plateau for the first time since I stopped purchasing cassette tapes and listening to them in my walkman. Chicago finds themselves in the interesting situation of technically finishing with the third most points in the conference, but receiving the fourth seed due to division winners. This is a situation that Buffalo found themselves in back in 2005-06 when they fell 20 minutes short of going to the Stanley Cup Finals.
Calgary really flamed out during the stretch (pun intended). They finished the regular season with a solid home record of 27-10-4 but they went 19-20-2 on the road, which will be their downfall in the first round. I really expected more during the season from Calgary, but they let me down much like “Yes Man” did after viewing it this weekend. I have very little confidence in them making a run. I realize that if Miika Kiprusoff can get hot it will be the difference, but right now I just can’t pick Calgary until they prove it to me.
I think if Calgary had somehow won the division and this was a match-up between Chicago and Vancouver, I’d be picking the Canucks in a short series. There is something about Chicago that I don’t quite trust. However, they aren’t playing Vancouver and therefore will win their series in the first round.
My Prediction: Chicago in 7 games
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Boston Bruins (1) vs Montreal Canadiens (8)
It’s funny how one season can change so much, but change so little. At this time last year, we were faced with picking between the top seeded Canadiens and the upstart Bruins, who just squeaked into the playoffs. The series ended up going a full seven games before Montreal pulled it out, only to choke it away in the second round.
This season it has been Boston who has pretty much reigned supreme in the Eastern Conference. If these two teams were a concert series, Montreal would’ve been that summer tour that was supposed to be the best, but instead ended up being some Skid Row tribute band that toured the clubs in North Dakota, while Boston was Ozzfest from the early 2000’s (before Sharon Osbourne ruined another good thing).
Most of the games between these two teams were close this season, so despite the large difference in team play throughout the regular season, I think the series could end up being close. Boston should prevail and it would be an epic disaster if they were upset in the first round, however I don’t see it happening.
My Prediction: Boston in 7 games
Washington Capitals (2) vs New York Rangers (7)
I have no idea what to make of this series. Washington has definitely earned the second seed in the East, but they don’t strike me as that elite team like San Jose, Detroit or even Boston. There is just something about the Caps that tells me they will fall flat on their face in the playoffs.
I think it has to be their lack of solid goaltending. Comparing Jose Theodore and Henrik Lundqvist is like comparing Winger to AC/DC. Having an elite goalie like Lundqvist definitely puts the Rangers in good shape for the first round upset. Combine that with playoff hero Chris Drury, goalie assassin Scott Gomez and the biggest pest in the league Sean Avery, and you can definitely make a case for the Rangers.
Despite their lack of solid goaltending, the Capitals finished the season with a goal differential of +27 goals compared to -8 for the Rangers. That is my main reason in picking Washington. Alexander Ovechkin is one of the few players in the league that most teams must fear heading into a playoff series and I’m sure he wants to prove himself in the post-season since that is the one category that Sidney Crosby has over him.
My Prediction: Washington in 6 games
New Jersey Devils (3) vs Carolina Hurricanes (6)
This has to be the most uninteresting, most boring series for the entire league. Not only do I have zero interest in either team, but I think its going to put most of America to sleep before the second period even starts.
The Hurricanes finished the season on a tear before getting shellacked by Buffalo on Thursday night and then finished it off with a loss to…the Devils!! Ok, maybe I shouldn’t be so excited by that, but something has to spice this series up.
My Prediction: New Jersey in 4 games
Pittsburgh Penguins (4) vs Philadelphia Flyers (5)
This is one of the most intriguing match-ups in my opinion. These two teams are very evenly matched and this has the potential of being a very high scoring series. Both teams finished the season with exactly the same amount of points and goals scored, but the Penguins had one more win in the standings which gives them the extra home game (if needed).
Before I started writing this, I was leaning towards the angle of saying how inconsistent the Flyers goaltending situation is with Martin Biron between the pipes. Then I looked at the goal differential of Pittsburgh (25) and Philadelphia (26) and my decision only became that much harder.
Pittsburgh pretty much owned Philadelphia this regular season when it came to head to head games, so my pick is pretty obvious in this close series.
My Prediction: Philadelphia in 7 games
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