NHL Stanley Cup Finals: Preview and Predictions
5/29/2009 | Posted by
Scott Lunn
After some rather anti-climatic Conference Finals series, the battle for the best trophy in all of sports is finally upon us. Pittsburgh and Detroit both managed to advance without facing too much opposition and will now go at it once again in a rematch of last year's Finals. This is the first time in 25 years that two teams have made it to consecutive Stanley Cup Finals appearances, and Pittsburgh will be trying desperately to provide a different outcome this time around.
Pittsburgh looks to have hit their full stride at this point, cruising by Carolina in a 4 game sweep that wasn't ever really close. The Penguins outscored the Hurricanes by a 20-9 margin and only game 1 had any real drama to it. Marc-Andre Fleury was the only goaltender of the 4 in the Conference Finals to not have won a Stanley Cup already, but he may have out performed all his counterparts. So far in 17 games of the postseason, his GAA is 2.62 and he has a save percentage of .906. Not stellar numbers at first glance, but when you consider how well the Penguins score the puck, it's been plenty good enough to get them back in the Finals. The race for the playoff scoring title has turned into a 2 horse show, and both those horses belong to Pittsburgh. Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin each have 28 points so far in the playoffs and nobody else is really even close. Crosby's points have come on 14 goals and 14 assists, while Malkin has 12 goals and 16 assists thus far. Pittsburgh's one downfall though might be that after those two, the scoring falls off dramatically. If Detroit can find a way to even slow those guys down, it might be enough to help them hoist yet another Cup.
Last year, the Penguins made it to the finals as a young, fairly inexperienced team. This year however, they're back and they know what to expect. This group would love nothing more to win the first Cup for Pittsburgh since their only previous wins in 91 and 92. The Penguins looked overwhelmed in the first 2 games of last year's Final, and it ultimately cost them as they recovered a little too late. I wouldn't expect the same to happen this time around. As for Detroit, last year's victory was the team's 11th Stanley Cup and another one this year would put them at half of the mark of Montreal's ridiculous 24 Cups. The Red Wings have proven to be one of the best run organizations in sports for years now and yet another Finals appearance just further proves that.
Detroit faced a very young Chicago team in the Western Conference Finals and didn't have too much of an issue getting past them, as they won the series in 5 games. The series was certainly closer than that in the East though, as 3 of the games were decided in overtime. 2 players top the list of scorers for Detroit as well, though they have a more balanced attack and have had a lot of secondary contributors. Johan Franzen has lead the way with 10 goals and 9 assists, while Henrik Zetterburg has chipped in with 9 of each. All playoffs long, people have pointed to Chris Osgood as the weak link of Detroit, and even I have been somewhat guilty of this. The fact is that it's just not the case though. Osgood comes into the Finals with a 2.06 GAA and a .925 save percentage, both of which are outstanding. Add to that the fact that Osgood has 3 Cup wins to his name, 2 of which he was the starter for, is 10th all time in NHL wins, and has a career playoff GAA of 2.11. Osgood has proven himself and deserves more credit than he gets.
Amongst the biggest keys heading into this series is the health of the Red Wings. 6 regular starters missed Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals for Detroit, yet they managed to walk away with the win. Andreas Lilja, Kris Draper, Tomas Kopecky, and Jonathan Ericsson were all out, but more notably, Nicklas Lidstrom and Pavel Datsyuk both missed games 4 and 5 of that series. Lidstrom is perennially the best defenseman in the league, and while he's supposedly going to be back in time for Game 1 tomorrow, whether or not he's at 100% will be a big factor. Datsyuk doesn't appear to be in as good of shape at this point, and while he hasn't provided his usual scoring power in these playoffs (7 points, with only 1 goal), many forget that he is very talented defensively as well. Having him at his best to help try and slow down Crosby and Malkin would be a very important factor for Detroit.
The Red Wings have been getting offense from other players however as Johan Franzen, Dan Cleary and Valtteri Filppula have all stepped up their scoring efforts. Still, contributions from Datsyuk if he comes back and Henrik Zetterburg would certainly go a long ways towards Detroit capturing yet another Stanley Cup. Pittsburgh will need some more scoring from it's support as well though, as relying almost completely on Crosby and Malkin might not continue to work at this point. Players like Bill Guerin, Jordan Staal, Chris Kunitz, and Ruslan Fedotenko need to provide more scoring in support of the Penguins Big Two.
Special teams is another big key factor when looking at this series. Both these teams are dynamite on the power play, but Detroit in particular. The Red Wings have scored 19 times in 74 opportunities this postseason, for a success rate of 25.7%. Pittsburgh has converted 16 of 83 opportunities, scoring 19.3% of the time. 10 of those 16 goals for Pittsburgh have come from the Crosby/Malkin duo however, while Detroit's are much more spread out across the team. On the flip side of things though is where the story might be told. The Penguins have allowed 10 goals on the penalty kill through 61 opposition chances, good for a 83.6% success rate on the kill. Not stellar, but when you compare it to Detroit's penalty killing effort, it looks pretty good. The Red Wings have allowed 15 goals in 57 opportunities so far in the playoffs, killing only 73.7% of their penalties. Detroit simply must be better or must stay out of the box, or Pittsburgh is going to make them pay dearly. While I wouldn't want to give up many PP chances for Detroit if I were Pittsburgh either, they have to feel at least a little more comfortable with their ability to kill off any penalties.
Yet another key to this series, and a storyline which I'm sure television will play up to death is that of the Red Wings' forward Marian Hossa. Hossa was with the Penguins last season and despite a very healthy contract offer after the season, he decided to bolt town, declaring that the Penguins were a one trick pony of sorts and he wanted to go play for a Cup contender. He signed with Detroit, and now he faces his former mates with the biggest prize on the line. Hossa has been solid, but not stellar for Detroit this postseason, chipping in with 6 goals and 6 assists thus far. The capability is still there however as he scored 40 goals along with 31 assists in the regular season for the team. Pittsburgh surely would like to make Hossa regret his decision and I can think of no better way than to beat his new team for Lord Stanley's Cup. It'll be interesting to see how Hossa reacts to the pressure in this series.
Ultimately, this series is a matchup of two teams with outstanding scoring abilities mixed in with some goalies playing at a very high level. It's pretty much what you'd expect from the last two teams standing. How the keys I mentioned above play out will likely end up determining who gets to parade around the ultimate trophy, and in particular, I think the injury issues for Detroit might be the biggest factor of all. If perennial Norris Trophy winner Niklas Lidstrom returns and can play at his usual level and the same is true for Hart Trophy candidate Pavel Datsyuk, the Red Wings will be very tough for Pittsburgh to handle. However, if those guys can't return, or aren't playing close to 100%, the series may very well be the Penguins' to lose.
Since the Red Wings have always been my second favorite team behind Buffalo, along with the fact that I don't particularly care for Pittsburgh and especially Mr. Crosby, my heart tells me to take Detroit. However, I have a bad feeling about this series, and the injuries in particular concern me a lot, so my head says Pittsburgh is going to win. As much fun as it is to pick with my heart, I rarely ever do it...
Pittsburgh wins in 6 games.
In other news, you have may have noticed by now that our site officially has a new address. You can now find us at www.dandssports.com though our previous address will also redirect you to the proper location. Along with the official domain name, we're also toying with some other ideas on ways to change the site up some, so be on the lookout for that in the near future. Additionally, as always your feedback is greatly appreciated and if you have any suggestions for changes you'd like to see here, feel free to let us know. You can shoot us an email at feedback@dandssports.com. Devin will be by either tonight or tomorrow with his preview and picks, as well as updated standings for the prediction contest heading into the Finals. Be sure to check back!
Pittsburgh looks to have hit their full stride at this point, cruising by Carolina in a 4 game sweep that wasn't ever really close. The Penguins outscored the Hurricanes by a 20-9 margin and only game 1 had any real drama to it. Marc-Andre Fleury was the only goaltender of the 4 in the Conference Finals to not have won a Stanley Cup already, but he may have out performed all his counterparts. So far in 17 games of the postseason, his GAA is 2.62 and he has a save percentage of .906. Not stellar numbers at first glance, but when you consider how well the Penguins score the puck, it's been plenty good enough to get them back in the Finals. The race for the playoff scoring title has turned into a 2 horse show, and both those horses belong to Pittsburgh. Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin each have 28 points so far in the playoffs and nobody else is really even close. Crosby's points have come on 14 goals and 14 assists, while Malkin has 12 goals and 16 assists thus far. Pittsburgh's one downfall though might be that after those two, the scoring falls off dramatically. If Detroit can find a way to even slow those guys down, it might be enough to help them hoist yet another Cup.
Last year, the Penguins made it to the finals as a young, fairly inexperienced team. This year however, they're back and they know what to expect. This group would love nothing more to win the first Cup for Pittsburgh since their only previous wins in 91 and 92. The Penguins looked overwhelmed in the first 2 games of last year's Final, and it ultimately cost them as they recovered a little too late. I wouldn't expect the same to happen this time around. As for Detroit, last year's victory was the team's 11th Stanley Cup and another one this year would put them at half of the mark of Montreal's ridiculous 24 Cups. The Red Wings have proven to be one of the best run organizations in sports for years now and yet another Finals appearance just further proves that.
Detroit faced a very young Chicago team in the Western Conference Finals and didn't have too much of an issue getting past them, as they won the series in 5 games. The series was certainly closer than that in the East though, as 3 of the games were decided in overtime. 2 players top the list of scorers for Detroit as well, though they have a more balanced attack and have had a lot of secondary contributors. Johan Franzen has lead the way with 10 goals and 9 assists, while Henrik Zetterburg has chipped in with 9 of each. All playoffs long, people have pointed to Chris Osgood as the weak link of Detroit, and even I have been somewhat guilty of this. The fact is that it's just not the case though. Osgood comes into the Finals with a 2.06 GAA and a .925 save percentage, both of which are outstanding. Add to that the fact that Osgood has 3 Cup wins to his name, 2 of which he was the starter for, is 10th all time in NHL wins, and has a career playoff GAA of 2.11. Osgood has proven himself and deserves more credit than he gets.
Amongst the biggest keys heading into this series is the health of the Red Wings. 6 regular starters missed Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals for Detroit, yet they managed to walk away with the win. Andreas Lilja, Kris Draper, Tomas Kopecky, and Jonathan Ericsson were all out, but more notably, Nicklas Lidstrom and Pavel Datsyuk both missed games 4 and 5 of that series. Lidstrom is perennially the best defenseman in the league, and while he's supposedly going to be back in time for Game 1 tomorrow, whether or not he's at 100% will be a big factor. Datsyuk doesn't appear to be in as good of shape at this point, and while he hasn't provided his usual scoring power in these playoffs (7 points, with only 1 goal), many forget that he is very talented defensively as well. Having him at his best to help try and slow down Crosby and Malkin would be a very important factor for Detroit.
The Red Wings have been getting offense from other players however as Johan Franzen, Dan Cleary and Valtteri Filppula have all stepped up their scoring efforts. Still, contributions from Datsyuk if he comes back and Henrik Zetterburg would certainly go a long ways towards Detroit capturing yet another Stanley Cup. Pittsburgh will need some more scoring from it's support as well though, as relying almost completely on Crosby and Malkin might not continue to work at this point. Players like Bill Guerin, Jordan Staal, Chris Kunitz, and Ruslan Fedotenko need to provide more scoring in support of the Penguins Big Two.
Special teams is another big key factor when looking at this series. Both these teams are dynamite on the power play, but Detroit in particular. The Red Wings have scored 19 times in 74 opportunities this postseason, for a success rate of 25.7%. Pittsburgh has converted 16 of 83 opportunities, scoring 19.3% of the time. 10 of those 16 goals for Pittsburgh have come from the Crosby/Malkin duo however, while Detroit's are much more spread out across the team. On the flip side of things though is where the story might be told. The Penguins have allowed 10 goals on the penalty kill through 61 opposition chances, good for a 83.6% success rate on the kill. Not stellar, but when you compare it to Detroit's penalty killing effort, it looks pretty good. The Red Wings have allowed 15 goals in 57 opportunities so far in the playoffs, killing only 73.7% of their penalties. Detroit simply must be better or must stay out of the box, or Pittsburgh is going to make them pay dearly. While I wouldn't want to give up many PP chances for Detroit if I were Pittsburgh either, they have to feel at least a little more comfortable with their ability to kill off any penalties.
Yet another key to this series, and a storyline which I'm sure television will play up to death is that of the Red Wings' forward Marian Hossa. Hossa was with the Penguins last season and despite a very healthy contract offer after the season, he decided to bolt town, declaring that the Penguins were a one trick pony of sorts and he wanted to go play for a Cup contender. He signed with Detroit, and now he faces his former mates with the biggest prize on the line. Hossa has been solid, but not stellar for Detroit this postseason, chipping in with 6 goals and 6 assists thus far. The capability is still there however as he scored 40 goals along with 31 assists in the regular season for the team. Pittsburgh surely would like to make Hossa regret his decision and I can think of no better way than to beat his new team for Lord Stanley's Cup. It'll be interesting to see how Hossa reacts to the pressure in this series.
Ultimately, this series is a matchup of two teams with outstanding scoring abilities mixed in with some goalies playing at a very high level. It's pretty much what you'd expect from the last two teams standing. How the keys I mentioned above play out will likely end up determining who gets to parade around the ultimate trophy, and in particular, I think the injury issues for Detroit might be the biggest factor of all. If perennial Norris Trophy winner Niklas Lidstrom returns and can play at his usual level and the same is true for Hart Trophy candidate Pavel Datsyuk, the Red Wings will be very tough for Pittsburgh to handle. However, if those guys can't return, or aren't playing close to 100%, the series may very well be the Penguins' to lose.
Since the Red Wings have always been my second favorite team behind Buffalo, along with the fact that I don't particularly care for Pittsburgh and especially Mr. Crosby, my heart tells me to take Detroit. However, I have a bad feeling about this series, and the injuries in particular concern me a lot, so my head says Pittsburgh is going to win. As much fun as it is to pick with my heart, I rarely ever do it...
Pittsburgh wins in 6 games.
In other news, you have may have noticed by now that our site officially has a new address. You can now find us at www.dandssports.com though our previous address will also redirect you to the proper location. Along with the official domain name, we're also toying with some other ideas on ways to change the site up some, so be on the lookout for that in the near future. Additionally, as always your feedback is greatly appreciated and if you have any suggestions for changes you'd like to see here, feel free to let us know. You can shoot us an email at feedback@dandssports.com. Devin will be by either tonight or tomorrow with his preview and picks, as well as updated standings for the prediction contest heading into the Finals. Be sure to check back!
Labels:
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