The NFL Coaching Carousel
1/16/2009 | Posted by
Scott Lunn
I must say, I was quite surprised to pull up the "worldwide leader's" website this evening and see that Jon Gruden had gotten in the axe in Tampa Bay today. One more victim in what seems like an ever growing trend, not only in the NFL, but in pro sports in general.
Here's the list of coaches that have been canned so far since the start of the season:
Lane Kiffin - Oakland
Scott Linehan - St. Louis
Mike Nolan - San Francisco
Romeo Crennel - Cleveland
Rod Marinelli - Detroit
Eric Mangini - N.Y. Jets
Mike Shanahan - Denver
Jon Gruden - Tampa Bay
Obviously some of these aren't so surprising, teams like Detroit, Cleveland, St. Louis, Oakland, and even San Francisco have performed quite poorly. New York is New York and Mangini was bound to have a short leash too, so you can maybe even lump that one is as well. Then you get to names like Shanahan and Gruden. How many people would have expected these guys to go, especially with respective records of 8-8 and 9-7 respectively? Yes, both teams missed the playoffs, but narrowly.
Shanahan was 146-95 in his career, including 8-5 in the postseason with 2 Super Bowl wins. Subtract out his early struggle in LA with the Raiders and you can bump him up to 138-86 with Denver, which is good for a .616 winning percentage. That ranks pretty high up there amongst the best in NFL history. However, 3 straight years of missing the playoffs seems to be more than the power that be in Denver can handle.
As for Gruden, his numbers are a little less outstanding at 95-81 between Oakland and Tampa, but he too has a Super Bowl ring on his hand. The last 6 years have only brought two playoff appearances however, and both were losses in the Wildcard Game. While there were at least mild rumblings out of Denver about Shanahan's job security, Gruden's firing today seems to come as a total surprise to most.
Personally, I fail to understand the logic of some of the coaching firings in the past few years in sports in general. Shanahan and Gruden both fall into this category for me. It would seem to me that you better have a replacement that you think can fair better if you're going to get rid of somebody, and at this stage in the game with more than half of the vacancies out there already filled, that seems fairly unlikely. It's a risky proposition at best replacing a known commodity like Mike Shanahan with a guy who has 3 years as an offensive coordinator under his belt. Sure, Josh McDaniels ran a prolific offense in New England during his stay there, but he also inherited quite a bit of talent while doing so. As for Tampa, the pickings are even slimmer, with only a few choice candidates remaining out there.
Perhaps the success of rookie head coaches Mike Smith in Atlanta, John Harbaugh in Baltimore, and Tony Sparano in Miami have embolden teams to go out and take a risk on a fresh face without the experience as a head coach. No doubt, those guys did remarkable jobs this past season, but this year seems exceptional in that fact. Looking back at the past seasons and many of the first time head coaches are the same ones now seeking employment. It is indeed a crapshoot at best, but in this "what have you done for me lately" environment, teams seem willing to gamble.
Only time will tell if these decisions pay off of course, but don't be the least bit surprised to see Shanahan and Gruden land elsewhere and likely be fairly successful within a year or two if given the chance. There is no denying that the trend is growing however with only 2 NFL coaches having lasted 10 years with the same team in Jeff Fisher (1994) and Andy Reid (1999), and only 4 others (Bill Belichick - NE, John Fox - Carolina, Marvin Lewis - Cinncy, and Jack Del Rio - Jacksonville) with at least 5 years in the same location. You can't help but wonder who might be next.
Here's the list of coaches that have been canned so far since the start of the season:
Lane Kiffin - Oakland
Scott Linehan - St. Louis
Mike Nolan - San Francisco
Romeo Crennel - Cleveland
Rod Marinelli - Detroit
Eric Mangini - N.Y. Jets
Mike Shanahan - Denver
Jon Gruden - Tampa Bay
Obviously some of these aren't so surprising, teams like Detroit, Cleveland, St. Louis, Oakland, and even San Francisco have performed quite poorly. New York is New York and Mangini was bound to have a short leash too, so you can maybe even lump that one is as well. Then you get to names like Shanahan and Gruden. How many people would have expected these guys to go, especially with respective records of 8-8 and 9-7 respectively? Yes, both teams missed the playoffs, but narrowly.
Shanahan was 146-95 in his career, including 8-5 in the postseason with 2 Super Bowl wins. Subtract out his early struggle in LA with the Raiders and you can bump him up to 138-86 with Denver, which is good for a .616 winning percentage. That ranks pretty high up there amongst the best in NFL history. However, 3 straight years of missing the playoffs seems to be more than the power that be in Denver can handle.
As for Gruden, his numbers are a little less outstanding at 95-81 between Oakland and Tampa, but he too has a Super Bowl ring on his hand. The last 6 years have only brought two playoff appearances however, and both were losses in the Wildcard Game. While there were at least mild rumblings out of Denver about Shanahan's job security, Gruden's firing today seems to come as a total surprise to most.
Personally, I fail to understand the logic of some of the coaching firings in the past few years in sports in general. Shanahan and Gruden both fall into this category for me. It would seem to me that you better have a replacement that you think can fair better if you're going to get rid of somebody, and at this stage in the game with more than half of the vacancies out there already filled, that seems fairly unlikely. It's a risky proposition at best replacing a known commodity like Mike Shanahan with a guy who has 3 years as an offensive coordinator under his belt. Sure, Josh McDaniels ran a prolific offense in New England during his stay there, but he also inherited quite a bit of talent while doing so. As for Tampa, the pickings are even slimmer, with only a few choice candidates remaining out there.
Perhaps the success of rookie head coaches Mike Smith in Atlanta, John Harbaugh in Baltimore, and Tony Sparano in Miami have embolden teams to go out and take a risk on a fresh face without the experience as a head coach. No doubt, those guys did remarkable jobs this past season, but this year seems exceptional in that fact. Looking back at the past seasons and many of the first time head coaches are the same ones now seeking employment. It is indeed a crapshoot at best, but in this "what have you done for me lately" environment, teams seem willing to gamble.
Only time will tell if these decisions pay off of course, but don't be the least bit surprised to see Shanahan and Gruden land elsewhere and likely be fairly successful within a year or two if given the chance. There is no denying that the trend is growing however with only 2 NFL coaches having lasted 10 years with the same team in Jeff Fisher (1994) and Andy Reid (1999), and only 4 others (Bill Belichick - NE, John Fox - Carolina, Marvin Lewis - Cinncy, and Jack Del Rio - Jacksonville) with at least 5 years in the same location. You can't help but wonder who might be next.
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