UFC 100 Preview and Predictions


I'm going to take a look at those 3 big fights, breaking each one down and giving you my prediction of the outcome. First up is the middleweight battle of Ultimate Fighter coaches, Dan Henderson and Michael Bisping, with the winner getting the next shot at Anderson Silva's title. Next, we have a welterweight championship bout between top challenger Thiago Alves and 2 time defending champion, Georges St. Pierre. Finally, we'll take a look at the heavyweight championship showdown between Interim title holder Frank Mir, and the reigning champion, Brock Lesnar.
Dan "Hendo" Henderson vs. Michael "The Count" Bisping:
These two just finished up coaching the most recent season of The Ultimate Fighter, in a special US vs. UK edition, where the UK seemed to get the better of the action and Bisping certainly did the majority of the trash talking. As has become the tradition, the two coaches now face off in The Octagon, this time with a shot at the middleweight title on the line.

Henderson is a world class wrestler and a former US Olympian in both 1992 and 1996 in the discipline of Greco-Roman wrestling. He's also known for both having an incredibly durable chin, having never been knocked out, as well as big time punching power, particularly in his right hand. After a rough start in his return to the UFC, losing title matches to both Rampage Jackson and Anderson Silva in his first two fights, Henderson has gone 2-0 since with decision victories over Rousimar Palhares, and most recently Rich Frankliln at UFC 93 in January. Henderson seeks to gain another shot at Anderson Silva and the middleweight champion if he can win at UFC 100.

In addition to the lack of talent Bisping has faced, he's also had a bit of a luxury in the fact that 4 of his past 6 fights have been on his home turf in England. 11 of his 17 wins have come by way of either KO or TKO, as Bisping's primary discipline is kickboxing. Michael Bisping is known for talking a whole lot of trash, and this fight has been no exception. Throughout The Ultimate Fighter show and in the time since, he's made sure to tell anyone who will listen that he is going to defeat Henderson, even going so far as to say that Henderson won't take him down in the fight.
Strategy:
Normally, this is the point where I'd break down any common opponents the two fighters have had in the past in an attempt to see how they might fare against one another. However, these two, despite a combined 51 fights, have never fought the same person. Again, this is a huge indicator of just how different the talent levels that each man has dealt with are. Bisping truly needs to win this fight to earn his spot as one of the top middleweights, because up to this point, he's pretty much had his fights gift wrapped for him as the UFC's UK poster boy.
Henderson has a huge advantage in the wrestling department, as I've already mentioned his credentials. He should be able to dictate where the fight takes place because of this, and if I were to guess, I'd say he'd prefer to keep it on the ground. Bisping is certainly the more technical striker of the two, but his power is not on the same level of Henderson. Henderson throws absolute bombs all the time, with every punch having the capability of knocking out his opponent. Feel free to ask Wanderlei Silva how his jaw felt when Henderson's left hook caught it at Pride 33. Bisping tends to wear his opponents out with a multitude of strikes, eventually finishing them off with a TKO win once they can't fight back. Henderson's jaw should hold up to this test much better than Bisping's past opposition. Neither man's conditioning should come into question, since this is only a 3 round fight, and both guys have gone the distance on several occassions.
Prediction:
Count me amongst those that are highly skeptical of just how good Michael Bisping really is. Between his level of opposition and frequent fights in his home area, he just hasn't proven too much to me. A win here could change that drastically however as there is no doubt that Henderson is one of the best the sport has had to offer in the past 5 years, coupled with the fact that this bout isn't taking place in England. I just don't see it happening though. Anything Bisping can throw at Henderson, Dan has seen before, while the opposite won't be true. Bisping has never dealt with a wrestler anywhere near Henderson's caliber, and he'll be at Dan's mercy in terms of where the fight takes place. In the end, I see Henderson continually wearing on Bisping in the clinch and on the ground, causing more damage along the way. I'm calling for Henderson to win via unanimous decision.
Thiago "Pitbull" Alves (Challenger) vs. Georges "Rush" St. Pierre (Champion)- Welterweight Championship:
Georges St. Pierre's welterweight title is on the line as he faces off with fierce striker, Thiago Alves, who has certainly proved deserving of this shot. Many have viewed GSP as nearly unbeatable in this weight class as he has already dispatched of most of the division, but Alves is potentially his most dangerous opposition to date. This fight could very well boil down to who is able to dictate where the action takes places.

Alves has punishing Muay Thai strikes, especially his knees, and often uses them to secure his victories. Only 5 of his fights have gone the distance, all 5 of which he won, and 4 of them by way of a unanimous decision. Thiago is absolutely huge for a guy who fights at 170 lbs., and while I'm not sure what weight he generally walks around at, he's probably the largest fighter to grace the welterweight division in the UFC. That should present an interesting dynamic as Georges St. Pierre is more often than not the larger, stronger fighter in his bouts, but it won't be the case this time around.

St. Pierre is widely recognized as one of the most diversely talented mixed martial artists fighting today. Initially, he relied mostly on his striking, including his background as a black belt in Kyokushin Karate, but has continually developed other aspects of his game, including a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, and most recently an unprecedented ability as a wrestler. Despite not having any background in wrestling while developing as a fighter, St. Pierre is now thought to possess the most effective wrestling in MMA. He has recently shown the ability to dictate where a fight goes with such top level wrestlers as Matt Hughes, Josh Koshcheck, and Jon Fitch, both taking them down at will, as well as stuffing their takedown attempts. Most consider St. Pierre as the best pure athlete in the UFC, and it'll take his diverse abilities to be able to stop Alves in this fight.
Common Opponents:
Alves and St. Pierre actually have an extensive list of common opponents to draw analysis from. Each has fought Josh Koshcheck, Matt Hughes, Jon Fitch, and Karo Parysian at some point in the past. Alves has a record of 3-1 against the group, while St. Pierre is 5-1 against them. Taking a look at each competitor, both men beat Koscheck by unanimous decision, with both essentially dominanting him throughout the fight. Alves did it with strikes, while St. Pierre utilized his wrestling for the most part. St. Pierre beat Parysian by unanimous decision in his UFC debut back in January of 2004, while Alves stopped him early in the 2nd round with strikes in April of 08. Jon Fitch was able to get past Alves with a late 2nd round TKO in June of 06, while GSP dominated Fitch completely for 5 straight rounds in August of last year. Finally, Alves caught Hughes with a flying knee and finished him with strikes early in the 2nd round of their UFC 85 fight last June, while GSP has a more complicated past with him. St. Pierre's first career loss came by way of a Matt Hughes armbar with just one second left in the first round of their title fight at UFC 50 in October, 2004. GSP had been winning the round, but make a critical mistake and was caught by Hughes. The two fought again for the title at UFC 65 in November, 2006, and this time GSP caught Hughes with a head kick in the 2nd round and followed it up with punches to capture his first title. The rubber match in the series was for the interim welterweight title at UFC 79 and this time it was St. Pierre catching Hughes with the armbar at the end of Rd. 2 to capture his second title.
So what can we learn from all that? Well, we know both of them faired pretty well, but I think the slight edge has to go to St. Pierre, as most of his fights were against those guys when they were on top of their game. Not to mention a few of those were title fights in his case as well. Clearly both of them fair well against wrestlers for the most part however.
Prediction:
It's no secret that I'm a huge GSP fan, but this fight has me more worried than any of his I can recall in the past. Alves is no joke and will give St. Pierre a huge test. Both possess tremendous striking ability, but the edge goes to Alves, mostly because he has more finishing power than GSP does. St. Pierre is an incredible wrestler, but so far Alves, while not known for wrestling at all, has been able to neutralize some of the best wrestlers in the weight class, though St. Pierre did the same. The question will be whether or not Alves can use his massive size and strength to keep GSP from dragging him down like he's done to so many others. St. Pierre's best bet is to try and smother Alves on the ground, much like he did recently to BJ Penn. Ground him and frustrate him, neutralizing his striking ability. Easier said than done of course, but I think St. Pierre is one of the few who can manage it. The longer this fight goes, it has to favor GSP, as he's been in many 5 round fights, while Alves has rarely gone the distance in 3 rounders. Also, Alves has to make a huge weight cut which could suck his energy too. My prediction is that St. Pierre finds a way to avoid Alves' strikes early on and stays out of danger, ground and pounding his way to a TKO victory in the 4th round.
Frank Mir (Interim Champion) vs. Brock Lesnar (Champion) - Heavyweight Championship:
The main event for the evening is a rematch between Frank Mir and Brock Lesnar, but this time the UFC Heavyweight title is on the line. Mir was able to defeat Lesnar in Brock's first UFC fight via submission, but took plenty of damage in a short period of time before doing so. The rematch should be an interesting one, with neither man lacking confidence, and both coming in with a belt around their waist.

After Mir won the title from Sylvia back at UFC 48 in June of 2004, he was in a serious motorcycle accident that shattered his leg. It was nearly 2 years later when he made his way back after battling problems with alcohol, prescription medications, and depression, and it was a very dissapointing return at that. Mir went 1-2 and looked like a shadow of his former self, including 2 quick first round TKO losses. As the story goes, his wife lit a fire under his ass, threatening to leave him if he didn't pull himself together, and beginning with his fight against Antoni Hardonk in 2007, we've seen the resurgenge of Frank Mir. He tapped out Hardonk early in the 1st round at UFC 74, then did the same against Lesnar at UFC 81, and finally, became the first man to stop Minotauro Nogueira with a TKO in the 2nd roudn to win at UFC 92. Mir seems to be back on top of his game, but hopefully he's prepared for a different Brock Lesnar the 2nd time around.

Lesnar has been a very polarizing figure thus far in the UFC. He had a built in fan base from his days in the WWE, and he also carried some of his brash showmanship along with him, which made many despise him. As already stated, many think he's been pushed too quickly, too soon, but he's grabbed the ball and ran with it thus far. He has legit credentials as a former NCAA wrestling champion, and if ever there were somebody deserving of the label of "freak", it's Lesnar. The man is absolutely massive, but possesses some explosive quickness and agility along with that size, making him nearly impossble to control. His fist look like large hams, and have proven themselves capable of massive damage in a short amount of time.
Strategy:
With them having already fought each other once, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out what each wants to do here. While Mir has made claims of having the better stand up ability, I don't think he really wants to stand right in front of Lesnar in the least. Mir certainly showed much improved stand up striking against Nogueira, but Brock's head is a brick wall, and I don't think Mir could knock him out with a free shot to the chin 9 times out of 10. Lesnar on the other hand, could certainly end Mir's night with just one punch. Lesnar will also own a nearly 50 lb. weight advantage come fight time too. He cuts down to the limit of 285, but will probably fight closer to 300. Mir usually weighs in around 250 lbs. Lesnar is going to be tempted to go back to his instinct like he did in the first fight and take Mir down the first chance he gets, but this of course could be a tricky proposition. He has surely worked his submission defense greatly since the first go round, but he still runs the risk of Mir catching him while on the ground. On the other hand, holding people down and wearing them out is what Lesnar does best. He might be better off to try and stick to the feet and attempt to land a power shot instead.
Prediction:
Lots of questions marks presenst themself in this fight. Will Mir be focused and in shape like the last few fights, or will he revert to the old unmotivated, quick to gas Frank Mir? Has Brock improved his defense enough to keep Mir at bay and not have to worry about getting submitted while on the ground? Can Frank Mir endure an enslaught of Lesnar fists if he gets caught with a punch and knocked down? Ultimately, I think we'll see a much improved Lesnar from their first fight. He's had plenty of time to work on his skills and there is no question the determination is there. The man had money from pro wrestling, he's in the UFC because he's a competitor and legitimately likes to beat the hell out of people. Mir on the other hand, isn't likely to have improved significantly beyond what we've seen before and I seriously question his motivation level. I see Lesnar avoiding the submissions and pounding Mir on the ground much like the first go round, this time managing to get the TKO win when Mir can't take any more of a beating. Lesnar by TKO in the 2nd.
Full Card:
Pay Per View Fights:
Frank Mir (12-3) vs. Brock Lesnar (3-1)
Georges St. Pierre (18-2) vs. Thiago Alves (15-3)
Jon Fitch (18-3) vs. Paulo Thiago (11-0)
Dan Henderson (24-7) vs. Michael Bisping (18-1)
Yoshihiro Akiyama (12-1) vs. Alan Belcher (14-5)
Preliminary Bouts:
Mark Coleman (15-9) vs. Stephan Bonnar (13-5)
Mac Danzig (21-6-1) vs. Jim Miller (13-2)
Jon Jones (8-0) vs. Jake O'Brien (11-2)
Dong-Hyun Kim (11-0-1) vs. T.J. Grant (14-2)
C.B. Dollaway (11-2) vs. Tom Lawlor (6-2)
Matt Grice (9-2) vs. Shannon Gugerty (11-3)

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