UFC 99 Preview


The main event between Wanderlei Silva and Rich Franklin promises to be full of action as both like to press forward. Cheick Kongo and Cain Velasquez has big implications in the heavyweight division. Mike Swick vs. Ben Saunders could move us towards the next contender at welterweight, while Marcus Davis and Dan Hardy's war of words and love of throwing bombs should make for another exciting fight. Finally, we have the UFC return of Mirko Cro Cop who has to have a good showing if he wants to stick around this time. For the sake of space and time, I'm only going to break down the two main event fights, but suffice it to say that I think this could be a very entertaining card heading into next month's blockbuster UFC 100.
Rich "Ace" Franklin vs. Wanderlei "The Axe Murderer" Silva - Catchweight: 195 lbs.
Both these fighters are heading in opposite directions as Franklin prepares to move back to the light heavyweight division, mostly because nobody wants to see him get killed by Anderson Silva again, while Wanderlei is heading down to 185 and the middleweight division. First, however, they're going to meet in the middle and fight at 195 lbs. This fight will doubtfully be boring, mostly because Silva is involved and he always presses the action. He's probably the most aggressive fighter in the world of MMA and has a tendency to either knockout his opponent or get knocked out. Franklin tends to be similar, but to a lesser degree. Both of them will certainly prefer to be on their feet however.


Common Opponents
I always like to take a look at any common opponents that two fighters have had before they do battle to try and gauge how they might fare against one another, and in this case, there is only one man that both have faced. Wanderlei Silva first beat Dan Henderson almost 9 years ago in December of 2000. Silva won a unanimous decision on that night, giving Henderson his first career loss. When the two would fight again, in February of 2007, it was for Silva's middleweight title. This time around Henderson knocked out Silva with a brutal left hook to become the first person to hold title's in 2 different weight classes in a major promotion. Franklin, as already mentioned, did battle with Henderson at UFC 93 in January of this year and lost a very close split decision. The first Silva/Henderson fight can kind of be thrown out in my opinion since it was nearly 9 years ago, and the later fight is much more indicative of where both fighters are at in their careers now. Franklin doesn't quite have the power of Henderson, but that's not to say he can't knock somebody out.
Of Interest
One of the major stories leading into this fight is that Anderson Silva called up Rich Franklin and invited him to come train with him prior to this fight. The reason this is of interest is because Anderson was a former training partner of Wanderlei's back at the Chute Boxe Academy in Brazil. It seems as though Anderson is not pleased with Wanderlei moving down to his weight class and decided to try and help Franklin gameplan to beat him. This may or may not help of course, but one thing that comes quickly to mind for me is the clinch game. It was Anderson Silva's Muay Thai clinch that helped him so completely destroy Franklin when they fought. If Anderson was able to help Franklin learn how to properly defend it, it would be very advantageous as Wanderlei posesses the same ability to throw brutal knees and elbows from that position.
Prediction
This is a tough one to pick for me because both guys really need the win. Right now, I like Rich Franklin's skills a little more as Wanerlei has been on a clear downswing in ability as of late. I expect them to stand and exchange in the early going, and of course either one could get caught and have a short night, but I think Franklin's defense is much tighter and if he can fend off Silva's onslaught in the early going, he should be able to take over and dictate the pace and place the fight occurs at. I see Franklin catching a very tired Silva late in the fight and following it up with strikes for a TKO victory.
Cheick Kongo vs. Cain Velasquez
This fight was set up on very short notice, as Kongo stepped up to replace an ill Heath Herring. The change wasn't made until May 20th, so Kongo only gets about 3 weeks to prepare for this fight. Kongo is looking to cement his spot as the next contender to the UFC Heavyweight title, while a win for Velasquez would certainly throw his name into the mix as well.


Strategy
Since these guys have no common opponents, I'll take a look at the strategies likely to be employed in this fight. Kongo is a striker first and foremost and possesses pretty vicious Muay Thai skills for a guy his size. Kongo's glaring weakness early on in his UFC career was his ground game as he has been held down with relative ease on more than one occasion. It's clearly something he's worked on however as he was able to keep Mirko Cro Cop grounded and beat away on him for 3 rounds in their fight. Still, I think there is little doubt that Kongo would much prefer to stay on his feet in this fight and try and pick apart Velasquez with his superior striking skills.
Velasquez also has pretty solid striking and I get the feeling he'll want to test himself on his feet with Kongo in the early going. This might not be the smartest strategy, but it surely hasn't stopped guys in the past from trying it. Cain's best chance in my opinion is to use his dominant wrestling to get Kongo on the ground and keep him there. He should grind away on him with strikes from the top and work for a ground and pound stoppage. It's my opinion that Velasquez has the ability to dictate where this fight goes and that he should use that advantage, I'm just not so sure he will. He's clearly very confident in himself and as a young guy in the business, I won't be surprised at all if he trys to bang it out.
Prediction
As I just mentioned, the outcome of this fight is going to be determined by where it's fought. If Velasquez decides to make it a ground war, he should stay in control, while if it stays on the feet, I think Kongo is the better striker and will do more damage. Either way, I'm expecting this fight to go the distance and end up in a decision, so it's just a matter of where they fight. My guess is it mostly stays standing and Kongo outpoints Velasquez with cleaner, more damaging strikes.
Other Fights

Full Fight Card
Main Card Fights:
Wanderlei Silva (32-9-1) vs. Rich Franklin (24-4)
Cain Velasquez (5-0) vs. Cheick Kongo (14-4-1)
Spencer Fisher (22-4) vs. Caol Uno (25-11-4)
Mike Swick (13-3) vs. Ben Saunders (8-1-2)
Marcus Davis (16-5) vs. Dan Hardy (21-6)
Mirko Cro Cop (24-6-2) vs. Mustapha Al-Turk (6-4)
Undercard Fights:
Terry Etim (12-2) vs. Justin Buchholz (8-2)
Dale Hartt (6-1) vs. Dennis Siver (13-6)
Stefan Struve (16-3) vs. Denis Stojnic (5-2)
Peter Sobotta (8-1) vs. Paul Taylor (9-5-1)
Paul Kelly (8-1) vs. Roli Delgado (6-5-1)

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