Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars (Thurs)

Congrats to the Jaguars for actually selling out a game. Too bad it wasn't until Week 15 before they did so. The Jaguars are such an up and down team that I can't get a grasp on them at all. Their best stretch this season has been a three game winning streak where they defeated Kansas City, the Jets, and Buffalo by a combined eight points. Out of their seven wins this season, the only one that came against a team currently with a record above .500 was their win against the Jets.

So why am I picking them to knock off the undefeated Colts? Simple. I pick against the Colts every single week. But seriously, this has to be the week they finally go down. They clinched the number one seed in the AFC so they literally have nothing to play for anymore. Coach Jim Caldwell has said that the healthy starters will continue to play, but I don't believe totally believe him. That is my first factor in picking against them. Second, these two teams played on opening day and the Jags only lost by two points, which was due to a missed two point conversion late in the fourth quarter. They are division "rivals" and always tend to play close games. Third, the Jags need this game desperately to keep their playoff hopes alive and will simply be the hungrier team.

Dallas Cowboys @ New Orleans Saints (Sat)

I really could see a Dallas upset but I have to pick smart if I want to catch Scott, and picking the Cowboys in December against the best team in the NFL isn't exactly smart. I'm five games back of Scott with three weeks remaining so I have to pick and choose my upsets a little more wisely.

I highlighted this point in my rankings this week, but Dallas could very well be on the outside of the playoff picture by the end of this week if they lose to New Orleans and the Giants beat Washington. So if you're Dallas, the playoffs have basically already started. It's not inconceivable to think that if Dallas pulls off this upset, they get on a mini-run and plow through the playoffs. As recently as last year, we watched Arizona do something similar and we watched the Giants pull it off the year before. Then again, those two teams weren't coached by Wade Phillips.

New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills

I suppose picking the Bills is the polar opposite of picking up upsets wisely, but hear me out. The Patriots have currently defeated the Bills 12 consecutive times. You know who else had a 12 game winning streak against a division foe? The Steelers over the Browns. What happened to that last week? The Browns finally upset the no longer dominant Steelers and ended the streak. The Patriots are in the same boat as Pittsburgh. A once dominant team suddenly isn't what they thought they were and is showing signs of demise. Randy Moss is potentially quitting on the team, the defense can't stop anybody, and Tom Brady is human. We saw this in Week One when the Bills almost pulled off the upset in Foxboro, and I think this is the week to do it.

The Patriots greatest strength is their passing game. Randy Moss and Wes Welker routinely eat them alive. I still think both of those guys have big days because Welker is still himself and Moss is probably a little pissed off over all the accusations of quitting last week against Carolina. However, the greatest strength of the Bills is their pass defense. Rookie safety Jairus Byrd is the league leader with nine interceptions on the season. They are ranked fifth overall in the NFL in pass defense. They are first in the entire NFL with 25 interceptions overall. Hell, Donte Whitner has two on the season which has equaled his career total from the previous three years.

The Bills biggest weakness is their run defense. Every single week teams just run all over them. It's almost amazing at how bad they are. Despite that fact, teams continue to pass on them for some reason. I'm not sure if they can't get over their ego or they just like throwing the ball. Luckily for the Bills, the Pats really don't have a great running game. Their leading rusher is Laurence Maroney and he has been less than spectacular, only rushing for 654 yards on the season.

So I see the Bills pulling off the upset and finally ending the 12 game losing streak to New England and it will come down to three things. One, bottle up Maroney as much as possible. It's a given that he'll get his 100 yards but if they can contain him as much as possible, they should be fine. Two, double Wes Welker at all times. He is clearly the most dangerous weapon on the Patriots offense. Watch Randy Moss going deep, but otherwise single coverage should be fine. He isn't exactly fond of going over the middle. Three, give the ball to Fred Jackson. Whether it's out of the backfield running the ball or catching screen passes, the Bills offense goes as Jackson goes. Feed him the ball early and often to help move the chains and keep the clock running.

Arizona Cardinals @ Detroit Lions

Not good news for the Lions. They already aren't a great team and would be overmatched against Arizona, but now Arizona is a little miffed after being embarrassed on Monday Night Football. You know the Cardinals will be taking out their frustrations on Detroit. Even if Larry Fitzgerald isn't completely healthy (which I pray he is), the Cards should have no issues putting 30+ points on the board. If you find yourself in the playoffs of your fantasy football league and you're playing against Kurt Warner, look out.

Miami Dolphins @ Tennessee Titans

Like my pick of Jacksonville over Miami last week, I have zero confidence in this pick. I just find myself not completely trusting this Miami team. I'm sure they realize what's at stake for them if they get the win, but I'm just not fully confident they will get it done. It doesn't help that they need to win and hope Buffalo knocks off New England.

If Tennessee has any aspirations of continuing their miracle run towards the postseason, they absolutely have to win this week. There is no way possible they will make the playoffs at 8-8, and I would even argue that 9-7 won't be good enough once it comes down to Week 17 and tie-breaking scenarios. Regardless of that, they can only control what they do on the field and that starts this week. This is a playoff game for them.

Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs

I've seen both of these teams play several times this year and both are atrocious. However, last week Cleveland got a huge win against Pittsburgh which may get the ball rolling for them, sort of. Meanwhile, Kansas City lost by six to Buffalo and Matt Cassel threw four interceptions, three in the fourth quarter. To put that into perspective, the Bills begged the Chiefs to come back and win the game, and the Chiefs absolutely refused. On an interesting side note, the Chiefs home field advantage is completely out the window. In my brief lifetime, I've never seen a worse crowd at Arrowhead. I realize they are struggling, but come on Kansas City. That showing was terrible.

Houston Texans @ St. Louis Rams

I'm so scared of this game and its all fantasy football related. I made the playoffs in four of my eight leagues, which puts me at a neat and tidy 50% success rate. Although in my mind it will be a complete failure if I don't win and I haven't won in quite a few years. All that aside, I only really gave a crap about five of the leagues I ran, the other three were just joined out of boredom and I probably should've never joined them in the first place. So in one league I'm in, I've battled all season and clinched the number two seed last week to make the playoffs. Only four teams out of 12 make the playoffs. So I already feel somewhat accomplished. Then I realized my playoff matchup involves me playing someone who is starting Matt Schaub against the Rams. I am so incredibly screwed. Sometimes I hate fantasy football.

Atlanta Falcons @ NY Jets

The Falcons have been an epic failure this year. Of course, a lot of that has to do with injuries to their starting QB, RB, and WR. Nevertheless, their playoff hopes will officially end this Sunday in the Meadowlands. The Falcons only win on the road this year came against San Francisco, which feels like it took place 10 years ago. Granted the Falcons have been better than the Chiefs this year, but you have to wonder if Tony Gonzalez regrets his move at least a tiny bit.

I was convinced the Jets were going to lose last week to Tampa Bay. It had letdown written all over it but they kept it together for a resounding win. Of course it helps when Josh Freeman throws three interceptions and only puts up 93 passing yards, good for 12.1 rating on the day. The Jets best shot at the playoffs is the wild card. They could still win the AFC East, but it would take losses by both Miami and New England to even give them that chance. Getting swept by Miami this season and their overall poor division record is going to come back to haunt them. Normally I wouldn't care about the Jets and their playoff chances, but I do this year. There really is something about Rex Ryan that is unlikeable. Maybe he is just what I needed to spark my inner hate towards a division team that I started to care less and less about in recent years.

San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles

Kudos to the Niners for keeping their playoff hopes alive. It was nice to see them respond with a big win instead of rolling over and handing the division to Arizona. In fact, I would almost give San Francisco a chance at taking the division if it wasn't for the schedule in the remaining three weeks. The Cardinals have two straight games against the Lions and Rams, while the 49ers have the pleasure of taking on the Eagles this week before also getting the Lions and Rams. It would take a minor miracle for Arizona to lose those two games and have San Francisco beat Philly. If this game were happening earlier in the season, I might be able to talk myself into an upset, but the Eagles are playing their best ball right now and aren't going to let this one slip by as they already have a stranglehold on the NFC East. Although, even if San Francisco loses, they could still win the division at 8-8 if Arizona loses out. Remember, this is the NFC West we're talking about. An 8-8 division champion is a definite possibility.

Chicago Bears @ Baltimore Ravens

Getting swept by Cincinnati really killed their chances at the AFC North crown, but it's still possible for Baltimore. More realistically, their chances at the wild card are looking pretty good. Their final three games are very winnable. It started last week with a home game against Detroit and continues this week as the crappy Bears visit M&T Bank Stadium. As much as they want to scoreboard watch, they need to focus on the business at hand and that is winning. As long as they win out, things should take care of themselves. This isn't a sure thing, but it's really all they can hope for.

Cincinnati Bengals @ San Diego Chargers

Working in Baltimore's favor is the fact that Cincinnati has to travel out West to face the red-hot Chargers. I would be picking San Diego in this game no matter what, but it's even more of a sure thing since it is a home game for them. Just to review, the Bengals are 0-1 in the state of California this season and that loss came against a much worse team.

I've started to shy away from the Bengals in recent weeks. They have a great record but have been less than impressive in almost every win. I've ignored that for the most part this season because winning is all that counts, but they need to start playing much better if they want to actually advance past the first round. As it stands right now, they have one and done written all over them. I'll change that tune if they get a team like Jacksonville in the first round, otherwise it's going to be a disappointing January for Bengals fans.

Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos

The schedule makers were kind to Denver and it should provide a clear and easy path to the playoffs. Don't believe me? Let me introduce you to Charlie Frye. All signs point to him starting for Oakland this week.

On a related side note, the Raiders came to terms with UFL champion QB J.P. Losman, a former first round pick of the Bills. This isn't exactly great news for the Raiders, although I would argue that Losman is an upgrade over Frye or Russell. However, I think its good news for Losman. He could've very easily taken a backup role last summer when he was an unrestricted free agent, but he chose to go to the UFL and get some more playing time/experience with Jim Fassel. It took some guts to go that route and I'm happy he landed back on his feet. Unlike most Bills, I have no animosity towards him. Was he a great QB? No. Was he a first round bust? Yes. Do I hate him for it? No. So it didn't work out. Not all things do. The Bills fans that still spit venom when the topic of Losman is brought up need to get over it and move on.

Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Everyone has officially given up on Pittsburgh. They have lost five in a row and things are ugly. I've read several comments from die-hard Steelers fans where they are questioning just how good Mike Tomlin is and have even criticized Ben Roethlisberger. To clarify, Tomlin won a Super Bowl less than a calendar year ago. Roethlisberger has two Super Bowl titles under his belt and is only 27 years gold. I never thought I'd see the day when the fans would actually say anything negative about the guy. But this is when Pittsburgh rises from the dead. They need to win their remaining three games to even have a shot at the playoffs. The final three are against teams that all have winning records. Their current five game losing streak involves losses to three of the worst teams in the league. All signs point to a Green Bay win on the road. And that is exactly what the Steelers want.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Seattle Seahawks

Neither team is good, but there is no way the Bucs travel across the country and win in Seattle. Despite the Seahawks sucking this year, Qwest Field still gives them a home field advantage and Josh Freeman isn't going to overcome that.

Minnesota Vikings @ Carolina Panthers

If the Vikings still have any hope at all of clinching home field throughout the playoffs, they have to take care of business against Carolina. Luckily for them, they should be able to sleepwalk through this game and still come out with a win. I'm not 100% sure Matt Moore is starting his third game in a row for the Panthers, but it shouldn't really matter. Let me remind everyone that the alternative is Jake Delhomme.

NY Giants @ Washington Redskins

The Giants suffered a crushing loss last week against Philadelphia, but the good news for them is Dallas is imploding before our very eyes. The next two games for the Giants should be wins if all goes according to plan, and their final game against Minnesota might also be somewhat easy if New Orleans has the first seed wrapped up by then. So really, things are laid out pretty nicely for the G-Men. The scary thing about them is I absolutely won't write them off in the playoffs because of what they accomplished in 2007. In fact, I would argue that them limping into the playoffs with a wildcard spot is actually more dangerous than getting the first round bye like they did one year ago. Seems to me like Eli does a little better on the road than at home around this time of year. Seeing that the top two seeds in the NFC are dome teams and well, don't rule them out. That's all I'm saying. Of course, I can't really tell you what to do or think as that's been thrown in my face plenty of times this season.



Last Week: 9-7

NFL Season: 135-86



Scott's Picks:



Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars (Thurs)

Dallas Cowboys @ New Orleans Saints (Sat)

New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills

Arizona Cardinals @ Detroit Lions

Miami Dolphins @ Tennessee Titans

Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs

Houston Texans @ St. Louis Rams

Atlanta Falcons @ NY Jets

San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles

Chicago Bears @ Baltimore Ravens

Cincinnati Bengals @ San Diego Chargers

Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos

Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Seattle Seahawks

Minnesota Vikings @ Carolina Panthers

NY Giants @ Washington Redskins

Last Week: 11-5

NFL Season: 140-81