How Good Are The Sabres?
1/23/2010 | Posted by
Devin
A) Really good. Potentially scary good.
B) I'm not sure. They have potential, but I'm nervous of a letdown.
C) Not very good at all. They are a huge tease.
Sometimes when I answer this question, I answer with choice B.
Like the other night in Anaheim when I blinked my eyes and Patrick Lalime had helped dig an early 4-0 hole that forced Ryan Miller into action. The obvious key to the Sabres success for the remaining 33 games and playoffs is Ryan Miller. It doesn't exactly give me warm and fuzzy thoughts when Miller is forced to play 48 minutes and 27 seconds on his night off. But hey, I'll give Lalime a pass on that one game, just as long as it doesn't become a habit. Unfortunately for him, the Sabres might have had enough of him. He has had his moments this season, like coming off the bench for Miller down 3-0 to Pittsburgh, and helping Buffalo get the 4-3 win. To be honest, I don't answer with choice B very often.
Most times I answer with choice A. This is partly because I'm a huge Sabres homer, and partly because this is the best Sabres team we've seen since the lockout. Or at least on par with those teams.
Buffalo is on pace to finish the season with approximately 112 points this season. They finished with 113 points in 2006-07, which was good enough to win the President's Trophy. I don't think I'm saying anything outlandish when I say that the 2005-06 team was much better as a whole. That particular team finished 110 points, but that year it only netted them fourth in the Eastern Conference. The 2006-07 team looked great on paper. Best team in the league. Most goals scored. Four players with 30 or more goals. They had everything in their favor. Except they crumbled in the playoffs. That Sabres team only averaged 2.75 goals per game in the postseason after averaging 3.63 during the regular season.
In 2005-06, the Sabres averaged 3.33 goals per game in the playoffs, and many would argue that injuries to the defense were what really caused their demise. Seriously, what are the odds that your top four defensemen all suffer major injuries during a playoff run? Slim to none would be my guess.
Anyways, back to the main point. Yes, I really think the 2009-10 Sabres team is better than those two teams, or at least equal to them, and it goes without saying that they are better than the last two non-playoff teams. I know I'm going to catch some flak for that because they have had some obvious issues so far, but I am pretty confident in stating that they will easily overcome them down the stretch and into the playoffs. Let's break it down a little more.
Reasons Why They Are Better: Younger players assuming more leadership; Ryan Miller/overall team defense; balanced scoring; regaining the ability to come back/ability to hold on to a lead/finishing a team off instead of letting them back into the game.
When the Sabres allowed Chris Drury and Daniel Briere to walk in free agency, it caused an uproar from the fan base, and rightfully so. To let two of your top scorers AND co-captains walk for nothing was a hard pill to swallow. However, there were several Sabres fans that felt like this was part of the plan. Let's be honest, the Sabres probably weren't going to win the Cup with the team they had after the 2006-07 season. Anybody that saw that playoff run could see they were severely lacking in several departments. So instead of investing even more money in those two players, who weren't exactly very young, they let them walk and invested their money into the younger players to develop a core.
Judging by both players output for the Rangers and Flyers, I'd say I'm perfectly okay with that decision.
I'm not going to lie and say it was an easy transition. The last two years have been extremely painful to watch at times. But it appears as if things are coming together this year and they are poised for a real run. There is even better news, but I'll defer to the Sporting News for the quote:
"Eleven of the Sabres' top 15 scorers are age 28 or under, six are 24 or under and no key forwards, besides Tim Connolly in 2011, are scheduled for unrestricted free agency, meaning this is a collection that will be competitive for years to come."
Personally, I like the way that sounds. Included in the discussion of younger players assuming more leadership is a fellow on defense by the name of Tyler Myers. Myers is only 19 and has appeared in all 49 games this year. He is fifth on the team with 28 points, which is obviously first for all defensemen, and he leads the team in average ice time by a fairly large margin. If you were a casual person just watching the game, it would be very difficult to tell that he is a rookie by the way he plays and by the way the coaching staff and team trusts him. Needless to say, far fewer people are crying about losing Brian Campbell this season. That brings us to Ryan Miller. Miller has easily been one of the top two goaltenders this season and has been mentioned several times as a serious candidate for the Vezina and Hart trophy this season. While it might sound ridiculous, it really isn't. Think about the true definition of an MVP. To me, most valuable is defined as what the player means to the team. Without Miller, the Sabres are nowhere near the top of the conference and are most likely on the outside of the playoff picture. For evidence of that, take a look at last season once Miller got injured. The Sabres took a seemingly good position in the Conference and it all slipped away as they went 4-7-2 through a crucial part of the season and never really recovered.
Last season Miller had a 2.53 GAA, .918 save percentage, and five shutouts. So far this year he has put up a 2.02 GAA, .935 save percentage, and five shutouts. Mind you, that is in 17 less games than last season. To say Miller has dramatically improved is an understatement. He went from being Tim Thomas' backup in the Olympics to the definite starter for Team USA. As Miller goes, so go the Sabres. The evidence is in the standings.
As an overall team, the Sabres have a 2.29 GAA this season. The last time it was lower than that was the 2000-01 season when the Sabres had some guy named Dominik Hasek in net for 67 games. Oh by the way, he won the Vezina Trophy that season. I'm not comparing the two players by any means, just pointing out how good the Sabres defense/goaltending really has been this season.
The Sabres have always had a decent balance of scoring, but this year it appears to be much more evident. In 05-06, they had one 30 goal scorer and five with 20 or more. In 06-07, they had one 43 goal scorer, three 30+ goal scorers, and two 20+ goal scorers. This year the leading goal scorers have 14, 13, 13, 12, 12, 12, 11, 9, 8, and 8. Yes the numbers are down as a whole right now, but look at how well balanced that is. (I should also point out that Buffalo has 33 more games to play this season) The Sabres currently have 13 forwards who have appeared in at least 36 of the 49 games this season. The numbers above represent 10 of those 13 forwards. Just curious, but how does the opposition effectively game plan for the Sabres? It's not like there is one major line to focus on and shut down. The Sabres are rolling four lines and quite frankly, anybody on the ice at any given time can potentially score. Call me crazy, but that sounds like it is much more difficult to stop.
The final three reasons why I feel they are better can be rolled into one giant reason for the purposes of explaining it. Any Sabres fan can tell you, they were never out of it during the playoff years. There was always that potential to make a comeback and many times they actually did. The previous two years definitely lacked that luster. In addition to that, they seemed to fall apart in the third period when holding the lead or being tied and would eventually lose it. It was extremely frustrating.
Not this year. This was evident in game number two when the Sabres were trailing Phoenix 1-0 to start the third and walked away with a regulation win, 2-1. Two nights later in Nashville, the game was tied 0-0 late in the third when Mike Grier scored the game winner and Buffalo walked away with a 1-0 win. More recently, Buffalo was trailing Colorado 3-1 and scored two in the third to force overtime before eventually losing the shootout. (Had they continued to just play hockey, Buffalo would've definitely won. A skills competition is a stupid way to settle the tie) Prior to that, in two consecutive games against Pittsburgh and Atlanta, the Sabres overcame 3-0 deficits and won 4-3. I could go on and on all day about this, but these examples should be sufficient enough.
This team is definitely different. They don't fall apart late in the game. They do find a way to come back against seemingly impossible odds. They have balanced scoring from all four lines. They have an even better defense. Ryan Miller has been dominant so far.
To put it simply, this reminds me exactly of the playoff years, only better. I almost never turn a game off or walk away during a game, but I especially wouldn't think of it this year. As long as time remains in the game, the Sabres have a chance.
And as long as Ryan Miller is in net, the possibilities are endless.
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NFC Championship Preview
1/22/2010 | Posted by
Scott Lunn
The two highest powered offenses in the league will meet up on Sunday as the Minnesota Vikings head to New Orleans to take on the Saints for the right to advance to the Super Bowl. The Vikings were efficient on offense in dispatching of the Dallas Cowboys last weekend, but it was the defense that proved most impressive. They held Dallas to just 3 points and 248 total yards en route to a 34-3 victory. Brett Favre continued his terrific season by throwing 4 TD passes, including 3 to his new favorite target, Sidney Rice. Adrian Peterson continued to struggle however, managing just 63 yards on 26 carries, numbers that have to be at least a little concerning to Vikings fans.
As impressive as the Vikings were offensively this year, the Saints were even better. They quickly eliminated any doubt that existed after dropping their last 3 regular season games, in which they only managed 17 points in each, by absolutely making the Arizona Cardinals look silly. The final score read 45-14 in the Saints favor, but I'm not even sure it was actually that close. Tim Hightower broke off a 70 yard touchdown run to put the Cardinals up 7-0 on their first play, but the Saints responded, with a vengeance. By the time the first quarter ended, it was 21-7 New Orleans, and the Saints didn't look back. New Orleans got contributions from everybody on offense while piling up 418 yards, but Reggie Bush was the star of the day. Bush had 5 carries for 84 yards, including a 46 yard touchdown run, and also added an 83 yard punt return touchdown to put the finishing touches on the game. Drew Brees tossed 3 touchdowns in another solid effort, while 4 different receivers had at least 4 catches. The defense also played fairly well, holding the high powered Cardinal offense to just the two scores.
Based on what we've seen all season long and thus far in the playoffs, there is no reason to doubt that this game will be anything short of an offensive slugfest. So the question becomes which defense can do just enough to propel their team to victory? Well, at first glance, the Vikings defense seems to be the stronger of the two and Tony Romo would likely verify that for you if you asked him. Romo was sacked 6 times and hit another 4 as he was under pressure all day long against Minnesota. The Vikings forced 3 turnovers and had 11 tackles for a loss as well on the day and really prevented Dallas from moving the ball successfully at all. Granted, New Orleans has a better offense and more options to attack with, but they aren't going to be facing the Cardinals again. Arizona's defense was torched 2 weeks in a row and didn't put up much resistance against the Saints. New Orleans did manage to hold the Cardinals in check for the most part, forcing Arizona to pass a great deal once a big lead was established. The Cardinals put up decent numbers in the passing game, but again, it's tough to tell if that was because New Orleans was relaxed with a big lead or not. It is clear though that the Saints could not get to the quarterback anywhere near as successfully as Minnesota did.
From the Vikings point of view, that amount of pressure is going be needed again this week. If they can get to Drew Brees and disrupt his timing, it will go a long ways towards slowing down the Saints offense. This is of course easier said than done though. Brees is much like Peyton Manning in that he is very intelligent at reading defenses and knowing what's available to him before the snap. This results in a relatively low number of sacks as Brees gets rid of the ball quickly for the most part. It doesn't hurt that he usually has a ton of options to throw to either. Between Marques Colston, Robert Meachem, Devery Henderson, Jeremy Shockey, and Reggie Bush out of the backfield, somebody is usually relatively open. One thing is for sure, if the Vikings fail to get pressure on him, it won't be for a lack of trying. They're going to bring the heat all day and live or die by it. On the offensive side of the ball, it would greatly benefit Minnesota if they could finally get their star running back to return to previous form. Adrian Peterson dominated for about the first 3 quarters of the season, but his production has slowed greatly since. Whether this is due to Brett Favre becoming pass happy and audibling out of run plays or not is still a bit of a mystery, but the results have been obvious. Peterson hasn't topped 100 yards since Week 10 against Detroit and has had games of 19, 35, 54 and last week's 63 yards during the stretch since. Being able to control the ball and therefore keep it out of the hands of Drew Brees would be extremely beneficial in helping the Vikings reach the Super Bowl.
It would stand to reason that the opposites would be true for New Orleans. If they can keep Brees upright and give him time to make throws, he'll prove why he is one of the best quarterbacks in the game. This depends directly on the success of the Saints rushing attack. Last week was probably the best ground attack the Saints have managed in awhile, but it was also against an Arizona defense that has looked like Swiss Cheese as of late. Still, the reemergence of Reggie Bush had to be a welcome sight for Saints fans, as he has had more downs than ups as of late. If he can combine with Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell to carve out even a decent day on the ground, it should help to buy the Saints some time with their pass block. If they fail to do so, letting the Vikings tee off all day is going to be tough to deal with. Defensively, the Saints should fair a little better against Favre and the Vikings passing game. The Cowboys are rather weak in the secondary and really showed no effort in trying to stop Sidney Rice last week. I expect the Saints DBs to put up a much better fight. They did a solid job keeping Larry Fitzgerald, Early Doucet, and Steve Breaston in check just a week after all three tore up Green Bay. Brett Favre threw very few interceptions this year, but it's something he's been prone to in the past due to forcing plays more than he should. If the Saints could get him to turn the ball over a couple of times and get Brees and company some extra possessions, they would be pretty tough to defeat.
Almost everybody I've seen is picking Minnesota with a fair bit of confidence this week. I understand that if their defense plays like it did last week, New Orleans is in for a very long day, but for some reason, I don't see them having the same success. Instead, I'm imaging a game more like the Vikings contest against Arizona in Week 13, where Favre attempts a ton of passes and ends up throwing some costly interceptions. The Cardinals completely shut down Peterson in that game, so it is certainly attainable for the Saints. I think turnovers determine the winner and Drew Brees makes the most of his chances.
My Pick: New Orleans (-4) over Minnesota
AFC Championship: Indianapolis (-7.5) over NY Jets
I think the matchup of New Orleans and Indianapolis with perhaps the 2 most talented quarterbacks in the game would be amazingly entertaining, not to mention the thought of a Minnesota/NY Jets Super Bowl complete with 2 weeks of Favre Hype and Rex Ryan quotes gives me severe indigestion. It's the Super Bowl, and since my team is never involved anymore, it needs to appeal me on some level, so I'm totally picking with my heart this weekend.
AFC Championship Preview
1/21/2010 | Posted by
Devin
Last week, the Colts eliminated the Ravens with the same kind of boring precision that allowed them to go 14-0 before throwing away their perfect season in the last two weeks. I credit this to myself for changing my pick to favor Baltimore at the last second. I obviously have the magic touch. With only three games remaining in the postseason, I think I'm officially going for the 0-11 record. I was in Detroit this past weekend and even made the point of riding the Detroit People Mover across town so I could see Ford Field. When attempting a winless record, I have to pull out all the stops. I wish I was kidding but I'm really not.
Anyways, back to the Colts. Even as they were up 17-3 at halftime, I had the sneaking suspicion that the Ravens could make this into a game. I suppose this was wishful thinking because I should've known Joe Flacco wasn't going to all of a sudden put together a good half of football. When your starting quarterback goes a combined 24 for 45, 223 yards, zero touchdowns, and three interceptions in the first two rounds of the playoffs, you're probably not thinking about the Super Bowl anymore. To be honest, I like Flacco and have nothing against him, but he was horrendous this postseason.
If this game was ever in doubt; that officially ended when the Colts took a 20-3 lead on a drive where Peyton Manning threw not one, but two interceptions to Ed Reed and still maintained possession. The first interception was nullified by a great play from Pierre Garcon. Its plays like that from lesser known players that separate the good teams and the bad teams. The second interception was cancelled out by the stupidity of the Ravens, which seemed to haunt them multiple times this season. I seem to remember a game against Pittsburgh that Baltimore eventually lost, mostly because of multiple penalties that continuously took points off the board.
The Jets game was a different story. I ignored all looming thoughts of the Jets stealing another playoff game from the Chargers because I figured this San Diego team was different. For one, they were 13-3 and riding an 11 game winning streak. Two, I didn't think Nate Kaeding would miss as many field goals in one game as he did for the entire 2009 season. However, that is exactly what happened. The Chargers played into the hands of New York for the entire afternoon until it finally bit them and ended their season. The Chargers game plan should've been extremely simple. Get an early double digit lead and force Mark Sanchez to win the game with his arm. Instead, the Chargers took a 7-0 lead and seemed content with that. To be fair, had Kaeding made his first two field goal attempts, the lead would've been 13-0 and we may not be discussing this at all. The Jets game plan was executed almost perfectly. Rely on their defense to hold them in the game and wait for San Diego to make one costly mistake. With a 7-3 lead, Phillip Rivers did exactly that when he threw one of the worst interceptions that I have ever seen not thrown by a guy with the last name of Sanchez. The Jets promptly took a 10-7 off the turnover and never looked back. While trying to grind out some more time on the clock, Shonn Greene did more than that when he broke off a 53 yard touchdown run and simultaneously ended the Chargers season and the Thomas Jones era in New York.
What followed this sequence was a perfect display of why coaching matters the most in the playoffs. At this point in the game, the Chargers were down 17-7 and would remain down by 10 after Kaeding's third miss of the afternoon. So for what it's worth, the Chargers were finished. But still, Rivers was able to rally the offense and cut the lead to 17-14 with just over two minutes remaining and one timeout left. Common sense would dictate that the Chargers kick it deep and simply stop the run. Even with only one timeout, they have the two minute warning on their side and could have easily forced a Jets punt with over one minute remaining in the game. Seeing that the Jets punter wasn't exactly on his game, the Chargers could've easily put themselves in position to kick a game tying field goal. Of course, that would have required Nate Kaeding to actually make a field goal, but you still have to take that chance.
Instead, Norv Turner calls for the onside kick and the Jets predictably recover the ball. They are stopped all three times before facing a fourth down. Seeing that the Jets were already deep enough into Charger territory to risk losing the ball, Rex Ryan calls for them to go for it and they easily get the first. Game over. Take that entire sequence, but place it down inside the Charger 30 yard line and the Jets are definitely punting the ball and giving Rivers one more shot to go down the field. This was an awful decision the second Turner made it and it remains an awful decision after the fact. And for those who think I might be piling on Turner, check my Twitter, I tweeted at that exact moment that it was a horrendous call.
And so here we stand. We have the Colts and the Jets with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. If you would've told me that the Jets would be playing in the AFC Championship game before the season had started, I would've bet my life savings against it. Maybe there is something to Rex Ryan and has inflated sense of confidence in his team. The team that ended the perfect season for Indianapolis now has a chance to ruin their Super Bowl dreams as well. Here is some food for thought. The Colts yanked their starters against the Jets because the Colts were concerned with keeping everyone healthy for a potential Super Bowl run and didn't seem to care about the perfect season. When they pulled the starters, it allowed the Jets to win and pretty much allowed them to cakewalk into the playoffs. Now the Jets have a chance to beat them again and completely finish their season. Had the Colts actually tried for the perfect season, they would've beaten the Jets, the Jets wouldn't have made the playoffs, and this scenario would've never played out. Football works in mysterious ways sometimes.
Continuing with the Jets trend this postseason, I expect a low scoring game that will start to favor New York as time goes by. The biggest factor in this will be the play of Mark Sanchez, or more like how the Jets will keep him under control. If they are smart, they keep the game plan close to the same as the past two weeks and limit his opportunities to throw at a minimum. I highlighted this in my Brian Schottenheimer article, but when the Jets start to pass the ball more and get away from a clock controlling ground game, they almost always lose. This is kind of stating the obvious, but in every single playoff game so far this year, the team with the least amount of turnovers has won the game.
Then again, the Colts could do what the Chargers failed to do and get a decent sized lead early and then just pick Sanchez apart. If there is one thing Peyton Manning is good at, it's marching right down the field for the early lead. As it stands now, it really could go either way. My pick would definitely be better served if it was made after the first quarter and I could accurately judge how this game will go.
I'd like to say the Colts will need a good running game to win, but I just don't think that is true. In the wild card round, the Jets allowed the Bengals to rush for 171 yards and still won with relative ease. Last week against Baltimore, the Colts ran for a whopping 42 yards on 25 carries, and the game was never really in doubt. Normally I would say that a solid running game is the most important part of winning, but I'm starting to think that having a QB like Peyton Manning simply renders that point obsolete.
Contrary to popular belief, the Jets can be beat through the air. If Reggie Wayne is nullified by Darrelle Revis, that simply leaves Dallas Clark, Austin Collie, and Pierre Garcon open to make plenty of plays. Last Sunday against New York, Rivers did throw the ball for 298 yards. Vincent Jackson caught seven passes for 111 yards, Antonio Gates caught eight passes for 93 yards, and six other players contributed with at least one reception. On the flip side, Mark Sanchez cannot win this game on his own. If the Colts can hold the Jets to under 100 rushing yards, they will win the game. I know it isn't totally fair to refer back to the meeting in Week 16 because of the circumstances surrounding the game, but I will anyways. The Jets ran the ball for 202 yards that day while Sanchez only attempted 19 passes. I can't reiterate this enough. It is not a coincidence. Sanchez will not win the game for the Jets, but he absolutely will lose the game for them.
With all that being said, the Jets just beat one of the hottest teams in the NFL, and even if they lose this Sunday, it will be a very close game. Unfortunately for me and the rest of America, I see the Jets actually winning this game and finally returning to the Super Bowl. Cue the Joe Namath footage. Err…I mean cue the Joe Namath Super Bowl footage, not the Joe Namath sloppy drunk "I want to kiss you" footage.
My Pick: New York Jets (+7.5) over Indianapolis Colts
NFC Championship:
Minnesota Vikings (+4) over New Orleans Saints
Sanchez! Favre! It's Super Bowl XILV!!
Is Chan Gailey the Answer?
1/19/2010 | Posted by
Scott Lunn
Perhaps the biggest feather in the cap of Chan Gailey is the simple fact that he has some head coaching experience. Granted, most of it is at the college level where he spent 6 years at the helm of Georgia Tech. During his tenure with the Yellow Jackets, Gailey amassed a record of 44-32 and never had a losing season. Despite those numbers, he was let go and had his contract bought out in 2007, due in part to 6 straight losses against main rival Georgia, and perhaps for a subpar record in bowl games. Before that time, Chan spent 2 seasons with the Dallas Cowboys, going 18-14 and making the playoffs in both years. Both seasons ended with first round losses however, and owner Jerry Jones had seen enough. Jones now claims it was a mistake to let Gailey go for what it's worth. Gailey has had stints as offensive coordinator in Denver, Pittsburgh, Miami, and most recently Kansas City, but has never spent more than 2 seasons in that position with any team. Reports also claim that Bill Cowher had tapped Gailey as his offensive coordinator, if he were to return to the sidelines. When meeting with the Bills, Cowher seems to have given Gailey his recommendation.
Apparently, since the Bills couldn't convince Cowher to come back and take the job, they figured they might as well get the guy he spoke highly of. Honestly, I see little other reason the Bills would make this hire. In Gailey's most recent job with the Chiefs, he failed to make any impact with the offense, which to be fair, was about the worst in the league when he took them over. He was one of the 3 OC's relieved of their duty in the preseason this past year. It concerns me a great deal that the guy wasn't good enough to be the OC for Kansas City, yet the Bills think he has the ability to turn around a franchise mired in a decade of futility. According to Adam Schefter's story on the hiring, the Bills are supposedly impressed with Gailey's ability to take franchises to the playoffs, despite having a subpar quarterback, citing seasons with Mike Tomczak, Kordell Stewart, and Jay Fiedler. I'm not sure whether to cry or laugh hysterically at that last sentence. Instead of fixing the problem of not having had any stability or outstanding skill at the quarterback position since Jim Kelly left, the Bills choose to hire a guy who has had some luck getting teams to the playoffs with bad QBs!
If the Bills were hiring Gailey as on offensive coordinator, I'd probably be alright with it. He does have a decent enough track record in that position (although the 2 year stints everywhere he's gone concern me) to warrant giving him a chance. Especially when you consider how truly awful the offense has been in Buffalo the past few seasons. It's very clear that somebody with a mind for that side of the ball is a necessity. However, this guy has never impressed as a head coach. When this entire process started for the Bills, I was in the group that desired a proven head coach over any other candidates, with the key word being proven. Gailey has a little experience, but I find him far from proven at the NFL level. Now, I understand that the Bills were being backed into a corner after numerous potential candidates declined the offer to even interview for the job, but that doesn't change the fact that it was still the only current vacancy in the league. Buffalo seemingly had all the leverage in this situation, yet still seem to have found a way to mess things up. Once Shanahan, Cowher, and any other proven NFL winning head coaches were clearly out of the realm of possibility, the next logical step would be to go after a coordinator who had proven themselves at that level, but hadn't yet had the chance to take over the big job. Once again, Gailey doesn't fit that bill.
Leslie Frazier seemed the front runner of those candidates, having interviewed with the Bills and by all accounts being impressive. On top of that, his Viking defense has been outstanding all year and just finished dominating a red hot Dallas Cowboys squad in the playoffs last weekend. No, Frazier isn't one of these 30 something hot shots who could revolutionize the game like Sean Payton or Josh McDaniels, but that would never fit the Bills mold anyways. Sure, Frazier wasn't the ideal candidate to most Bills fans, myself included, but out of those still left standing, he seemed like the best choice. A proven commodity at his current job, looking to get a chance to do more. Instead, we're getting Chan Gailey, a man with moderate success as a coordinator, and a proven "middle of the road" head coach, who has struggled with everything he has done lately. Yup, that sounds like a Buffalo Bills move.
Before I continue to just run this hiring into the ground, let me say that Chan Gailey might not be awful. I don't want to completely write him off before he has even had a chance in Buffalo, because that's not exactly fair. The problem is that his hiring is a complete symbol of what is so wrong with the organization as a whole at this point. 10 years with no playoffs and just one winning season in that time. 5 different head coaches in that time frame and no quarterback that has been able to stick for more than 3 years since Jim Kelly. The problems run very deep and everybody knows it. Hell, even owner Ralph Wilson appears to know it since he recently stated that some serious efforts had to be made in order to turn things around. Folks, Chan Gailey is not a serious effort. He's another guy in the Dick Jauron mold who comes in with mild previous success, and more recent failure. A guy that is just looking for his last chance to make it as a head coach in the NFL. A guy that more than likely isn't going to rock the boat in Buffalo and is just another warm (hell, next to Jauron he probably seems quite lively even) body to fill the job for a few more years. The best I see out of Gailey is some flirtations with .500 for a year or two, but no ability to take us any further because he doesn't have the talent on the team to make it happen. In other words, even more of the same.
Is Chan Gailey the answer? I highly doubt it, but then again, I'm not sure there is an answer right now. So many things have to change for the Buffalo Bills to even be taken seriously by the rest of the league at this point that the list is growing about a mile long. Splashes need to be made, and I don't mean signing one big name free agent with a risk factor in order to sell more tickets like this past season. This team needs a real head coach that knows how to win, a quarterback who isn't frightened by his own shadow and knows how to lead, and perhaps... an owner that actually gives a damn.
What Is So Special About Brian Schottenheimer Anyways?
1/18/2010 | Posted by
Devin
Schottenheimer served as the Quarterbacks Coach in Washington and San Diego from 2001-2005 working underneath his Dad Marty, who was the Head Coach of those teams at the time. While my main intention was to research these seasons to see how well Schottenheimer did, it would be far too hard to judge the effects that the QB Coach had on those teams. For the sake of argument, during that time, those teams made a grand total of one playoff appearance (2004 Chargers). That same season featured a Pro Bowl season from Drew Brees, while under the tutelage of Schottenheimer. While this might not seem especially impressive, it was good enough to land him his current position, Offensive Coordinator of the Jets.
This season marked Schottenheimer's fourth with the Jets. His first season in New York started out well enough, as the Jets finished 10-6 and qualified for the playoffs. However, it didn't last long as they were ousted by the Patriots in the first round. The Jets offense finished 25th in the NFL that season, averaging 19.8 points per game. Chad Pennington was the QB that year and finished with mediocre numbers, 17 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. The Jets leading rusher was Leon Washington, who had a pedestrian 650 yards on the ground. On the surface, nothing to write home about.
The following season was a disaster for the Jets, as they finished 4-12 and were even swept by the Bills. Ouch. As you can probably guess by now, the Jets offense was about as good as their record. In fact, they finished 26th in the league as Pennington and Kellen Clemens split the QB position. Combined, the two players threw for 15 touchdowns and 19 interceptions. The scoring for the Jets decreased as well, only averaging 16.8 points per game. The lone highlight for the Jets that season was running back Thomas Jones, who finished with 1119 yards, but only one touchdown.
The 2008 season was a marked improvement for both the Jets and their offense, as they finished 9-7 but well short of the playoffs again. At one point in late November that season, the Jets were 8-3 and in clear control of their playoff destiny. Of course, I'm not going to hang that on Schottenheimer. He was merely a victim of Brett Favre being Brett Favre. Oh that's right, didn't I mention that? Favre was on the Jets that season. Replacing Pennington and Clemens with a first ballot Hall of Famer had to improve the offense, and it clearly did, as they finished 16th in the NFL. The Jets had their best season in terms of scoring, averaging a solid 25.3 points per game. Of course it helps the average when the NFC West allows a combined 103 points in two games.
Heading into the 2009 season, the Jets had just fired Eric Mangini and were searching for their next Head Coach. Having served as Offensive Coordinator for the previous three seasons, Schottenheimer got his chance to interview. However, in the long run the Jets decided to go with Rex Ryan and retain Schottenheimer as his usual position. Why is this relevant? Because Schottenheimer was interviewed by the team that currently employs him and the Jets felt at that point that he wasn't good enough. That fills me with confidence.
The Jets finished this season with the same 9-7 record that they had in 2008; however this time it was because they finished the season with two consecutive wins, rather than two consecutive losses. The offense as a whole dipped a little bit this year compared to last, but that is bound to happen when replacing someone like Brett Favre with an untested rookie like Mark Sanchez. The Jets offense finished the regular season 20th overall in the NFL. To be fair, they did have the number one rushing offense, but the passing offense ranked 31st, which was enough to drag down the overall rankings and put them on par with the previous three seasons. If there is one thing that stands out in Schottenheimer's tenure in New York, it's consistency. Maybe that is why fans in Buffalo were so enamored with Schottenheimer. You say consistency and the Buffalo Bills come right to mind. Three straight 7-9 seasons followed by 6-10 will do that for you.
Since the only memory people have is the most recent memory, I feel inclined to bring up a very key point. Yes, the Jets offense was effective last week in defeating Cincinnati. Before that, not so much. I'm going to completely discount Week 16 and 17 since both the Colts and Bengals rolled over and played dead with the Jets and examine the first 15 weeks of the season.
One game that sticks out in my mind is Week Six, when the Jets hosted Buffalo in New Jersey. The Bills eventually won that game 16-13 in overtime, but that wasn't the real story. The real story was how the Jets racked up 318 rushing yards and still lost the game. How is that even possible? Well, you can thank Mark Sanchez and his five interceptions for the rare Buffalo victory. While I'm sure people will argue that Schottenheimer wasn't on the field and can't control Sanchez's erratic arm, he can control the play calling. In fact, last time I checked, that is the job of the offensive coordinator. Simply put, there is no excuse for losing a game in which your team runs for 300+ yards. Sanchez attempted 29 passes that game, connecting on just 10 of them to Jets players. Don't you think at some point Schottenheimer would've realized this and just pounded the ball on the ground to seal the victory? To me, this is awful coaching. Just plain awful.
Of course, if I'm willing to just ignore the one good playoff game and focus on the one bad game, I should be fair and look at the entire body of work. So without further ado, here are the other games in which the Jets offense accumulated 99 or more yards rushing and still lost the game by allowing Sanchez to throw the ball 20 or more times. Week Four at New Orleans. Week Five at Miami. Week Six vs. Buffalo. Week Eight vs. Miami. Week 10 vs. Jacksonville. Week 11 at New England. Week 15 vs. Atlanta.
In case you're wondering, that is all seven losses this season. The Jets had the number one overall defense and the number one overall rushing offense in the entire NFL, and still lost seven games because in all seven, they allowed their rookie QB to throw the ball 20 or more times instead of just pounding the run and controlling the clock. Amazing!
And before everyone chirps up about how the Jets might have been down a lot of points and were forced into throwing the ball, they weren't. The Jets were down 3-0 to New Orleans in the second quarter with the ball at the Saints 15 yard line. Sanchez promptly threw an interception that was returned 99 yards for the touchdown and a 10-0 Saints lead. Still, only down 10, Sanchez then dropped back to pass later that quarter and was sacked, which was resulted in a fumble and another Saints defensive touchdown. If you're scoring at home, the Jets were actually down 17-10 to the Saints late in the fourth quarter and had held the highest scoring offense in the NFL to three total points at that point in the game. Had they just run the ball when they were down 3-0 in the first quarter, this game probably goes a little differently.
Besides New Orleans, the only other loss all season that was by double digits was a 31-14 defeat at the hands of the Patriots. In this game, I suppose you could argue that the Jets were down so much early that they were forced to abandon their game plan and throw the ball often. Of course, if Sanchez didn't hand New England an early 7-0 lead via an interception return, the whole flow of the game could've gone differently. Still, once down 24-0 in the first half, the running game goes right out the window. I understand that one.
So that brings us to the playoffs. The Jets offense was very efficient and the Jets disposed of the Bengals to advance to the second round. New York ran for 171 yards and only allowed Sanchez to throw the ball 15 times total. Funny how that worked out. In fact, upon some further digging around, in five of their nine regular season wins, the Jets attempted 19 or less passes total.
In the second round against San Diego, it was more of the same. The Jets ran the ball for a team total of 169 yards and relied on their strong defense to keep them in the game late. Sanchez only threw the ball 23 times total on Sunday.
Do you see a trend here? When the Jets offense runs the ball, controls the clock, and wears down the opposing defense, they usually win the game. When they get pass happy and starting chucking the ball down the field, they usually wind up losing the game. Reminds me of myself when I'm playing Xbox. Yet somehow it took almost the entire season for Schottenheimer to come to this realization and adjust their play calling accordingly. Hell, I don't even know if he fully realized it yet. I guess we'll see this weekend in Indianapolis.
So before everybody mourns the fact that Schottenheimer passed up the opportunity to interview with the Bills, maybe we should take a step back and be thankful. Not only will he not bring his erratic play calling to Orchard Park, but he is staying in the AFC East, where his offense is bound to give the Bills another one of their few wins.
NFL Divisional Round Preview: Part 2
1/15/2010 | Posted by
Devin
Before we get to this week's previews and picks; here is a quick word or two on the teams that will no longer be joining us in the quest for the Super Bowl.
After starting out 7-2 this season, the Bengals finished 3-4 in the regular season, and then capped it off by completely rolling over to the Jets twice within one week. I realize they have suffered through two tragedies this season, but this tailspin started long before the last two weeks. In their final three wins of the season, Cincinnati defeated Cleveland, Detroit, and Kansas City. So as you can see, there is a valid argument to be made that they could've easily lost their last seven games had they played anybody worthwhile.
After being in the driver's seat and on their way to the NFC East crown, the Eagles completely fell apart and were outscored 58-14 by the Cowboys in two straight weeks. Six straight victories towards the end of the season are now completely meaningless as the Eagles are once again watching the playoffs at home and debating the future of Donovan McNabb. Personally, I see no way that he is let go. Two good games by Kevin Kolb can't justify ending the McNabb era just yet. However, Michael Vick is another story. I don't see any way possible that the Eagles can justify hanging on to him and paying him what his second year option is worth.
I'm not sure where to start with New England. They clearly weren't the same team from the beginning of the season; where they needed the Bills to just completely give away the game to manage a one point victory over a team that they always dominate. Still, I was part of the majority that thought Tom Brady just needed to get back into the swing of things and the Patriots would be a top AFC team again. Obviously, I was wrong. The turning point of their season had to be the game at Indianapolis. I defended Bill Belichick's decision to go for it on fourth and two, and while I will still defend that call, it was a game changing and ultimately a season changing decision gone wrong.
After that game, New England managed three unimpressive wins against Carolina, Buffalo, and Jacksonville before being booed off the field this past Sunday in Foxboro. If there is one person that personified the lifelessness the Patriots displayed on Sunday, it is Randy Moss. He was awful in every sense of the word. Even after catching a ball, you could tell he was either going to go down quickly or run out of bounds before anybody could touch him. He looked about as interested in this game as I would look at a live taping of "The View".
Green Bay…oh Green Bay. I was genuinely rooting for the Packers on Sunday. I have nothing personal against Arizona, in fact I'm a big fan of Larry Fitzgerald, but I really wanted to see Green Bay pull it out. To me, they remind me a little bit of Buffalo. It's a small town that cares deeply for their football team and usually deserves better than what they get. Plus it would've been great to see them take Brett Favre down in the playoffs and get ultimate revenge.
While I'm not going to make any excuses for the Packers, I do want to point out that the referees were horrendous more than once in Sunday's game. On a 3rd quarter touchdown to Fitzgerald, the Packers were also flagged for roughing the passer. Looking back on the play, Cullen Jenkins looked to be held or even pushed into Warner, and it definitely didn't warrant a penalty. On top of that, Fitzgerald completely plowed over Charles Woodson, and received no penalty for offensive pass interference. Then on the first drive of overtime, the Packers were flagged for holding, meanwhile the Cardinals clearly went helmet to helmet on Aaron Rodgers and no flag was thrown. Finally, on the game winning turnover, Rodgers nearly had his head twisted off and there was no facemasking penalty. I have no idea if that changes the game, but those were three pretty big misfires by the officials.
Through all that, once Packers fans lick their wounds and are ready for football next season, they should be especially excited. Aaron Rodgers is the real deal and they have themselves a QB who is going to be great for a long time. I can clearly see why the Packers organization had zero interest in bringing Favre back after his first retirement and stuck with Rodgers. As a Bills fan, I'm jealous.
And with that, let's get to this week's games.
Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings (1:00PM EST, FOX)
Last week we saw the Cowboys finally get that playoff monkey off their back as they thrashed Philadelphia for a second consecutive week. That now makes a four game winning streak for Dallas in which they've outscored their opponents 99-31. I think it's safe to say that Wade Phillips will still have his job in Dallas after this season is over.
Tony Romo also played very well in an important game, something he's had trouble doing in his career. He finished the game 23 for 35, two touchdowns, zero interceptions, and a QB rating of 104.9. Romo was well supported with a great running game that contributed 198 yards of offense Saturday night. Miles Austin also continued to cement himself as the number one receiver in Dallas as he led the team in targets, receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns.However, the real key to victory was the play by their defense. Donovan McNabb was consistently harassed and didn't have nearly enough time to operate the offense. Demarcus Ware had another great game as he chipped in two more sacks to his ever growing career total. The defense had four sacks total, but the stats don't always tell the whole story. The Eagles offensive line was overwhelmed for the majority of the game and it was definitely a glaring issue. Good thing they spent so much money on Jason Peters. But hey, he did make the Pro Bowl again.
The Vikings clinched the second seed and had a chance at the number one seed until Brett Favre decided to be Brett Favre. By that I mean Minnesota took a 10-1 record and proceeded to finish 12-4. While that is a good record, I wouldn't be filled with confidence in a team that lost three out of their last five games to round out the season, especially when you factor in Favre's recent late season play. But I digress. This preview isn't all about the Wrangler God, much to his dismay.
As it was shown in all four losses for Minnesota, the key to beating the Vikings is putting an insane amount of pressure on Favre and forcing him into bad throwing situations. As you read above, this appears to be a specialty for Dallas. In other words, I like how this matches up for the Cowboys. Not to be outdone, Minnesota has a pretty solid defense themselves. They are led by Jared Allen, who finished the season with 14.5 sacks, which was second in the NFL. Antoine Winfield has also been great at cornerback for Minnesota, although injuries as of late have really slowed him down. He is definitely one of the best in the league at stopping the run, but his health will be a huge factor. I fully expect Tony Romo to test him a few times early.
One huge advantage for Minnesota might actually be the fact that they are hosting this game. I don't usually put a ton of stock in home field advantage but it appears to be a real force for Minnesota as they went 8-0 this year in home games. Then again, Minnesota had an extremely difficult time selling out their playoff game last year, so there is a very good chance that Cowboys fans will be flooding the dome this Sunday.
I like Dallas in this game and I hate myself for it. As much as I dislike the Cowboys franchise for past misdeeds, there is no way in my current lifetime that I will ever root for Brett Favre. But all bias aside, I really think Dallas is the better team. We've seen it time and time again, the playoffs don't always represent a season's worth of work and it's more about who is hot at the current moment. The Cowboys are easily the hottest team in the NFC and they are rolling into Minnesota right now. After seeing how they harassed Donovan McNabb all game, I expect more of the same this week against Favre.
My Pick: Dallas (+3) over Minnesota
NY Jets at San Diego Chargers (4:40PM EST, CBS)
I should've known better than to trust the Bengals, who haven't won a playoff game since 1990, to beat the Jets this past Saturday. Even in today's pass happy NFL; the Jets led the league in team rushing and team defense, two of the most important factors in picking a game. Still, I didn't want to trust the Sanchize (or is it Sanchise?) in the playoffs. As I stated before, I was very wrong last week. Sanchez did exactly what he had to do, which is to not lose the game. He was very efficient, going 12 of 15 for 182 yards, and one touchdown. More importantly, the Jets as a team committed zero turnovers.
In my mind, the biggest disappointment was Thomas Jones, who managed only 34 yards on 15 carries. Does this disappointment have anything to do with him being on my Playoff Challenge roster last week? Yes, yes it does. Luckily for him and the Jets, rookie Shonn Greene picked up the slack, rushing for 135 yards on 21 carries. The Jets defense was very effective in shutting down the Bengals passing game, but Cedric Benson still managed 169 yards and one touchdown. In the battle between Chad Ochocinco and Darrelle Revis, Revis won yet again. Although I suppose for the Bengals fans, you could say Ochocinco won since he caught two passes for 28 yards, while Revis only managed one catch for 20 yards. This week won't be nearly as easy for Rex Ryan's crew though. They now get to face the hottest team in football, and in my opinion, the best team in the AFC. After starting the season with an unimpressive 2-3 start, the Chargers reeled off 11 straight victories and cruised to the second seed in the AFC. Phillip Rivers is sometimes forgotten by the common fan because his draft class has already produced three Super Bowl victories to his zero, but I would easily rank him as the best QB from the 2004 draft. Then again, J.P. Losman's UFL championship might have me reconsidering that thought.
Rivers finished this season with 28 touchdowns and only nine interceptions, good for a solid 104.4 QB rating, which was third in the NFL this regular season. The weakest link for San Diego this season was their usually dominant running game. LaDainian Tomlinson never looked like his old self and only mustered 730 yards on the season. Of course, I'm sure most fantasy players are aware of this after Tomlinson was taken in the first round of most drafts. Suckers.
San Diego's defense never seemed like anything special this season, as they finished with the 16th overall defense. In comparison, the Bills were 19th and finished 6-10. Their run defense was 20th in the NFL and allowed an average of 117.6 yards per game. If you're a Chargers fan and you're reading this, it should be alarming. I'm not a coach, but if I were working on San Diego's staff, I would be game planning to just stack the line and make Sanchez beat me. I know he had a decent game against Cincinnati, but his track record still isn't all that great and his numbers won't be nearly as good if the game is put on his shoulders and he can't lean on his running backs to pick up the slack.
All week I've been listening to people say how this is the perfect matchup for the Jets and the worst possible matchup for the Chargers. Basically, everyone is preparing for an upset or at the very least, an extremely close game. Well you know what? It isn't happening. San Diego has been too good down the stretch and this is the year they are going to finally break through and take the AFC.
My Pick: San Diego (-8) over NY Jets
Saturday's Games:
Arizona (+7) over New Orleans
Baltimore (+7) over Indianapolis
NFL Playoffs: Divisional Preview Part 1
1/14/2010 | Posted by
Scott Lunn
Arizona Cardinals @ New Orleans Saints: Saturday, 1/16/10, 4:30pm on Fox
If Arizona's game against Green Bay from last weekend is any sort of indicator, we should be in for some more offensive fireworks this Saturday. The Cardinals managed to advance past the Packers by virtue of a 51-45 victory in overtime, where the only time defense was featured was on the game winning play. In the highest scoring game in NFL playoff history, Kurt Warner turned in an absolutely masterful performance, showing why he is one of the greatest playoff quarterbacks we've ever seen. Warner finished the game 29 of 33 with 379 yards and 5 touchdowns. All that without Anquan Boldin playing as well. The entire Cardinal offense chipped in though as Early Doucet and Larry Fitzgerald each had 2 touchdowns and Steve Breaston filled in as the #2 WR with a touchdown of his own, to go along with 7 catches for 125 yards. Beanie Wells added in a solid day on the ground to top it all off, gaining 91 yards on 14 carries.
The Cardinals needed every bit of that offense though as their defense had no luck in trying to stop Green Bay from moving the ball all game long. Despite causing some turnovers earlier in the game, the defense really didn't shine until overtime, when Michael Adams hit Aaron Rodgers in the arm and knocked the ball loose. The ball bounced off Rodgers' foot and right into the hands of Karlos Dansby who had a short trip into the end zone to finish off the game. The Cardinals defense looks to have its hands full again this weekend when they head to New Orleans to deal with a Saints team that showed its ability to put points on the board early and often this year.
The Saints lead the league in both yards per game at just a shade over 400, as well as points per game, averaging 31.9 on the year. Drew Brees finished 2nd in the MVP voting this year behind Peyton Manning, but his numbers were very impressive in their own right. Brees finished the year with 4,388 yards and 34 touchdowns, while throwing just 11 interceptions. Some of that success can be attributed to having so many targets to get the ball to. 7 different receivers had at least 35 catches on the year, lead by Marques Colston with 70. Colston, along with Robert Meachem, also had 9 touchdown receptions. Their ability to spread the ball all over the field is what made the Saints so potent all year long. Their running attack was solid as well, with multiple backs dispersing the load. Pierre Thomas lead the way with 793 yards and 5 touchdowns, but Mike Bell added 654 yards of his own. Bell and Reggie Bush also had 5 touchdown carries apiece. Injuries have been a concern at that position all year for New Orleans, but a bye week in the playoffs added some extra time for everybody to get healthy. Thomas, who has been dealing with a rib injury, is expected to be available on Saturday.
That offense is going to have to be on top of its game come Saturday though, because the defense for the Saints struggled a bit all year. They finished up 25th overall in yards allowed per game, and were particularly troubled against the pass where they ranked 26th, allowing 235.6 yards per game. After the display the Arizona offense put on last Sunday, Saints fans have to be at least a little worried. Injuries to the secondary contributed to some of the issues for New Orleans, but Jabari Greer, who missed 7 games on the season, is back and healthy. Darren Sharper is as well, which is good news considering he tied for the league lead with 9 interceptions on the season, 3 of which he returned for touchdowns.
So by just looking at the numbers, this game would figured to come down to which offense can outperform the other, much like the Cardinals/Packers game. I'm not so sure about that though. Arizona's defense is capable of much more than they showed last week, at least based on their season stats. Additionally, the New Orleans offense, while unstoppable early on in the year, slowed greatly down the stretch. New Orleans scored at least 24 points in each of their first 13 games while going undefeated, reaching the 40 point mark 4 times along the way. However, the team went 0-3 to finish the season, scoring 17 points in each of those games. Sure, they didn't really put in much effort in Week 17 because they had the #1 seed locked up, but the two previous games they were definitely still trying. Also, one of those games was against a Tampa team with an awful defense. I'd be rather nervous about that stretch if I were a Saints fan. It's hard to turn that type of thing around, but with the pressure on in the playoffs, they absolutely have to. Relying on their defense to win this game is going to get them a trip to the golf course and little else.
I'm not sure Arizona can repeat their offensive performance from last week, but they don't exactly have to either. If the defense steps it up a bit against a struggling-as-of-late Saints offense, Kurt Warner and company can probably do enough to get the win. The Saints on the other hand absolutely need their offense to show up back in early season form and for the defense to put in one of their best efforts of the year. This one is very tough to pick in my book.
New Orleans are 7 point favorites as of the writing of this article and I see no way they cover that spread. I think the Saints can pull out a win, but I'll take Arizona +7 happily.
Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts: Saturday, 1/16/10, 8:15pm on CBS
I picked New England to beat Baltimore by 9 last week... boy did I mess that up. The Ravens came flying out of the gate on Sunday and took it right to the Patriots in Foxboro. By the time the first quarter was over, the scoreboard read 24-0 in favor of the Ravens. The game finished up with Baltimore advancing by the score of 33-14, due in large part to their running game. In fact, Joe Flacco contributed next to nothing as he was 4 of 10 with 34 yards and an interception. The combination of Ray Rice and Willis McGahee took care of things offensively for Baltimore though. Rice had 159 yards and 2 touchdowns, including an 83 yard score on the Ravens first play. McGahee chipped in with 62 yards and a touchdown of his own. That coupled with a very lackluster performance from New England's Tom Brady (3 interceptions) was enough to allow the Ravens to hand the Patriots their first ever postseason lost at Gillette Stadium.
For the Ravens, it really was as simple as falling back on their strengths to get the win. Defense and running the football have been the staple of the Ravens attack for a long time now, and they showed why on Sunday. Causing 3 of the 4 New England turnovers in the first quarter helped propel the Ravens out to a lead that the Patriots simply couldn't recover from. Baltimore was highly impressive in dispatching New England from the postseason, but they are going to need to keep it up if they want to do the same against Indianapolis.
The faces may change a bit in Indianapolis, but the story has stayed pretty much the same. There is a new head coach in Jim Caldwell, and a crop of new receivers behind Reggie Wayne, but there is one big constant that allows the Colts to be so successful. Peyton Manning brought home his 4th MVP trophy this season, and deservedly so. 4,500 yards and 33 touchdowns from Manning helped Indy clinch the top seed in the AFC with a 14-2 record. Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark each finished up with 100 receptions, 10 touchdowns, and over 1,000 yards, but Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon both emerged as reliable targets for Manning as well. Joseph Addai was steady as always out of the backfield with 828 yards rushing, 51 receptions, and a combined 13 scores. As usual, the Colts were a top 10 offense, but the defense also allowed the 8th fewest points in the NFL.
The defense for the Colts is going to have to find a way to slow down the running game of Baltimore to be successful this Saturday. That won't be the easiest task in the world either, as Indianapolis gave up 126.5 rushing yards per game this season, only good enough for 24th in the league. The Ravens succeeded despite Joe Flacco not performing well at all against New England, so if the Colts can find a way to force Baltimore to throw, it would be highly beneficial. The pass rush of Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis can cause a lot of headaches and mistakes for opposing quarterbacks, and despite this being his 4th playoff game already in just 2 seasons, Joe Flacco is still rather young. Forcing Flacco to make plays in order for Baltimore succeed must be the number one goal of the Indy defense, because otherwise Ray Rice and company can run all day long and keep the ball out of Peyton Manning's hands.
For Baltimore, the opposite proves true. The Colts were the worst rushing team in the league this season and are highly dependent on Manning's ability to dispense the ball all over the field. The problem from the Ravens point of view is that there is really not much hope of making the Colts try to run the ball. Simply put, blitzing the Colts really doesn't work. Here is a list of Manning's sack totals each year, going backwards from this one: 10, 14, 21, 14, 17, 13. I could go on, but you get the point, Manning is extremely difficult to bring down. This is a combination of the Colts having a pretty solid offensive line coupled with the fact that Manning is simply the smartest quarterback in the game. Between reading coverages and calling audibles, and his ability to deliver the ball quickly, he just doesn't give opposing defense a chance to get to him. The best the Ravens can hope for is their secondary to make some very good plays on the ball and create some turnovers that way, though that's not real likely either.
Essentially, if the Indianapolis defense can find a way to slow down the Ravens rushing attack and make Joe Flacco win the game, they should be in great shape. And conversely, if Baltimore can keep the ball in the hands of their running backs and eat away the clock, keeping Peyton Manning off the field, that gives them their best chance. The problem with the Ravens strategy is that even if it's successful, Manning has a knack for making the most of little time. I could very easily see the Ravens having a huge edge in time of possession and still coming up short in this one.
Indianapolis is favored by 7 at home in this game, but much like the New Orleans/Arizona game that seems like too much. I think the Colts win this one late, but the Ravens are going to keep it close with ball control. Colts win, but I'm taking Baltimore +7.
Sunday Games:
Dallas @ Minnesota (-3) - The Cowboys have been absolutely impressive, but they need their defense to step it up again to slow down the Vikings. I think they do it and win outright, promptly begging the question "Will Brett Favre Retire?"
NY Jets @ San Diego (-8) - San Diego has been the best team in the league coming down the stretch and the layoff hurts them a bit in my mind. The Jets combination of defense and running has been great, and Sanchez couldn't have been asked for more than his performance on Saturday. I think he costs the Jets this week though. I hate this line, the spread is too big when a defense like the Jets have is involved, so I'm taking the Chargers to win, but the Jets will stay within the 8 point spread.
The Never-Ending Buffalo Bills Coaching Saga
1/12/2010 | Posted by
Scott Lunn
The fact that Buffalo is currently the only available head coaching gig in the league probably has a great deal to do with it. The Bills currently have the luxury of taking their time to pursue whoever they'd like because they have no competition. Rumor has it that the Raiders will be firing Tom Cable sooner rather than later, but Oakland and working for Al Davis might be one of the only jobs less desirable than Buffalo at this point. With the quick transitions of Mike Shanahan in Washington and Pete Carroll in Seattle, the Bills no longer have to deal with those spots looking like a better choice than theirs. Thus far, only 2 candidates are known to have had actual interviews for the position, those being former interim head coach Perry Fewell along with current Minnesota Vikings defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier. Fewell was pretty clearly not going to get the job, but it was still beneficial to both the organization as well as the man himself to interview for it just the same. Frazier on the other hand seems to be the front-runner so far. That could very well be due to a lack of competition however.
It seems as though multiple possible candidates have actually declined to be interviewed for the job. This is almost a mind boggling situation really. How bad must the Bills organization look in the eyes of others around the league if assistants aren't even willing to interview for a head coaching vacancy? The latest addition to this list is Russ Grimm. The offensive line coach of the Arizona Cardinals reportedly will not accept an invitation extended by the Bills, though it is unclear if it's simply because it's Buffalo offering or if he has decided he isn't ready to take on the role of head coach quite yet. Either way, it looks bad for Buffalo. The Bills have also contacted the Jets about interviewing their offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer. With the Jets still involved in the playoffs, finding a good time for an interview with him would be tricky. Again, this is one benefit of the Bills having no direct competition at the moment.
I would be remiss if I didn't of course mention the big fish in this competition however. It's far from a secret that both the Bills, and more obviously, Buffalo fans, are extremely interested and coaxing Bill Cowher out of retirement. Cowher had a long and successful campaign at the helm of the Steelers and has been out of the coaching game for the past 3 seasons. He currently can be found manning a spot on the CBS NFL studio show and has remained rather tight lipped on the situation. It has been reported that the Bills made contact with Cowher to discuss their interest in bringing him to Buffalo, but the level of reciprocation has been very unclear. Rumors have ranged from Cowher having a second "secret" meeting with the Bills in Orchard Park to several noted NFL media types saying Cowher absolutely will not be the next coach of the Bills. It is clear that Cowher has the upper hand in this situation as he has a comfortable job and there is no immediate need for him to return to the sidelines, the demand for his services will remain for at least a few more years. The interesting part in all of this is the silence from the actual parties involved. Buffalo has said little more than that they made contact with him, and owner Ralph Wilson went so far as to say that he had no idea what's Cowher's interest level really was. For his part, Cowher isn't speaking either. He has thus far declined to comment on his intentions not only for Buffalo, but for a return to coaching in general. Wouldn't he just come out and say so if he had no desire to coach in Buffalo? Well, perhaps not. The possibility remains that he is simply trying to leverage himself into the best possible position for any other offers that might come along. Once again, with only one available choice on the market, there is no need from his point of view to rush to a decision.
Clearly Bills fans are incredibly anxious for a result at this point. A decade mired in mediocrity and little visible hope of a return to the glory of four straight Super Bowls in sight have left fans incredibly discouraged, and rightfully so. The question that needs to be asked however, is does it really matter who the choice is at this point? It could easily be argued that with the current state of the Bills, failure is the most obvious outcome. There are some fans out there that are still willing to give the next hot commodity coordinator a chance to prove himself at the next level and hope for the best. There are far more that seem willing to settle for nothing less than a man with real experience and a proven track record. With names like Gregg Williams and Mike Mularkey in the Bills' recent past, who can really blame them? At the end of the day though, owning Super Bowl championships are simply an indicator of past performance and not a guarantee of future success.
It matters for another reason though. For several years now, there has been an ever growing consensus that owner Ralph Wilson has been unwilling to spend the money necessary to turn the franchise around. Now, there are of course counters to that argument like the fact that Daniel Snyder spends money like he's playing Monopoly in Washington and has nothing to show for it, or the fact that Ralph has at times seemed willing to spend cash in the free agency market and the team has just failed miserably with their decisions. However, with Bills fans in their darkest hour in a very long time, if Wilson were to spend the large amount of money necessary to land somebody the caliber of Bill Cowher, it would at least be a sign of good faith towards the fan base. At least they might believe he is really trying this time.
Without delving too deep into the subject, suffice it to say that the Bills could gain a lot with their fans by putting on the full court press. The secrecy and lack of discussion emanating from One Bills Drive is doing absolutely nothing to quell the ever growing sentiment amongst Bills fans that Mr. Wilson just doesn't truly care about the team or its fans. While they may not land the man they and the fans are after, the least they could do is prove they're trying. In the end, a large portion of the fan base will still be upset with any result short of landing the "big one", but winning back a few would be better than losing them all.
NFL Wild Card Preview: Part 2
1/08/2010 | Posted by
Scott Lunn
Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots: Sunday, 1/10/10, 1:00pm on CBS
The Baltimore Ravens were in complete control of their fate last Sunday and took advantage of the fact by easily handling the Oakland Raiders to earn their way into the playoffs. The Ravens wound up at 9-7 on the year and took an interesting route to get there. Early in the year, the Ravens didn't really resemble years past as they took to the air on offense. Joe Flacco had 3 games with 300+ yards passing in the first 6 weeks of the season and earned his way into the starting lineup of fantasy teams everywhere. During that stretch, the Ravens won their first 3 games, but dropped the next 3 against opponents that all went on to make the playoffs. In fact, it's that second point that has me concerned going into this game. Against teams that went on to make the playoffs, the Ravens went 1-7, with the lone win coming against San Diego in Week 2. While that win might qualify as impressive, I'd also consider that the Chargers struggled a bit the first few weeks before becoming the hottest team in the league down the stretch. The winning percentage of the teams they did beat was well below .500. This screams to me that the Ravens can't handle the tougher competition and could be in some trouble come Sunday.
New England finished up the year at 10-6 and only lost back to back games once on the year. Interestingly, they didn't fare all that well against playoff bound teams either, going just 2-3. Their wins came against the Jets as well as this very same Baltimore team back in Week 4 at home, but more about that game momentarily. Tom Brady made his return after missing virtually all of last year due to injury and played pretty well for the most part. He had some bumps in the road and has battled with nagging injuries throughout the year, but still managed to finish up with just a shade under 4,400 yards along with 28 touchdowns to just 13 interceptions. A big part of that success could be attributed to Wes Welker and another monster year. Of course, we all saw what happened to Welker last week when the case for resting players was made very clearly. Welker apparently suffered both a torn MCL and ACL and will not be back this season. That's a major blow to the Pats because the possession receiver role plays a huge part in their offense. Welker is very adept at running option routes and taking whatever opposing defenses are willing to give up. Julian Edelman is his replacement, and while he showed some skills on Sunday, I don't think his abilities are on par with Welker. Of course, Randy Moss is still on the other side of the field and he accounts for most of the teams touchdowns, so the Ravens defense is likely to focus there instead.The running game is of great interest to me for both teams. For Baltimore, after that abnormal first few weeks, it was the ground game that returned as their main focus on offense. Ray Rice lead the way with 1,339 yards rushing and 7 touchdowns, while Willis McGahee also turned in 544 yards and found the end zone 12 times. McGahee showed last Sunday that he is still capable of big games from time to time, but keep in mind it was the Raiders that he torched. Rice also contributes a great deal by catching the ball out of the backfield. He hauled in 78 grabs for an additional 702 yards on the year. In fact, the Ravens passing game relies heavily on Rice (who lead the team in catches), as well as tight end Todd Heap, who also had 6 scores. By contrast, the Patriots running game has continued to be a bit of a question mark. Laurence Maroney got the majority of work on the season, gaining 757 yards and 9 TDs, but 4 different backs had at least 60 carries and 250+ yards on the year. In addition to Maroney, Kevin Faulk, Sammy Morris, and Fred Taylor all saw duty in the New England backfield. The Patriots have the truest "running back by committee" scheme of any team in the league, and each back brings something slightly different to the table. Faulk in particular is an above average receiver as well and is often utilized as such. The Patriots are obviously a pass first team, but I think they need to rely a little more on their running attack than usual against Baltimore. Otherwise, the time of possession could heavily favor the Ravens.
As I mentioned before, these teams already faced each other once this season, squaring off in Week 4. New England was home for that game, much like they will be again this Sunday, which is great for them, considering they struggled quite a bit on the road this season. That first meeting was a very closely battled game that saw the Patriots take home a 27-21 victory. Late in that game, Joe Flacco found Mark Clayton for a would be first down inside the Patriot 10 yard line, but Clayton simply dropped the ball and with under 30 seconds left, the Ravens were out of chances. In that game, Flacco played pretty well and put up numbers similar to Tom Brady. In addition, the Ravens were very successful running the football as Ray Rice had 103 yards on just 11 carries. The problem was that they played from behind for the most part and were forced to go to the air. On the flip side, the Patriots garnered almost no rushing attack at all, totaling just 85 yards on 30 carries.
Looking at the keys for each team in this game, the Ravens need to dominate with their running game. The Pats have struggled a bit against the run all year, and that is what the Ravens do best. Joe Flacco is still young, and while he did take this team to the AFC Championship from the same #6 seed last year, he's relatively inexperienced. He needs to manage the game and not be relied on to go out and win it for Baltimore. Conversely, the Patriots will have to find a new game plan with Welker missing and that should include trying to establish the run early on as well as plenty of short passes to the running backs and tight end. The Patriots are one of the best teams at running screen plays and should use that to their advantage against a still very tough, but aging Baltimore defense.
At the end of the day, I think the Patriots are simply the better team and it will show. The Patriots are favored by 3.5 points as of my writing this, and I expect them to cover that. I'm picking New England by 9 in this one.
Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals: Sunday, 1/10/10, 4:40pm on Fox
If it weren't for the Minnesota Vikings handling them twice this season, the Green Bay Packers would have looked like one of the elite teams in the NFL. Despite those two losses to the Vikings, the Packers still managed a record of 11-5. Their reward? Traveling to Arizona to face the Cardinals, despite having a better record. The secret to the Packers success this year is not really a secret at all. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers had a fantastic season, earning himself a trip to the Pro Bowl in the process. Rodgers stat line is a fantasy owner's dream come true, racking up 4,434 yards, 30 touchdowns, and only 7 interceptions. Drew Brees and Peyton Manning are the only reason Rodgers isn't a serious contender for MVP of the league this season. For the sake of consistency, the Packers record against eventual playoff teams this season stands at 3-3. I mentioned the two losses to the Vikings, but the Bengals also topped the Packers in Week 2. The Cowboys, Ravens, and the Cardinals all fell at the hands of the Packers. Green Bay finished up 7-1 in the second half of the season and their lone loss was by just a single point at Pittsburgh. What does all this mean you ask? Well, I think it's safe to say that the Packers are one of the top teams in the NFL at this point, despite not getting the same recognition as some other teams.Arizona made it to the Super Bowl last season, and came very close to winning it despite nobody really believing they had a chance when the playoffs started. Part of the issue with the Cardinals is that they are tough to gauge. They play in what is easily the worst division in football and also have a real tendency to look unstoppable one week, while looking putrid the next. The Cardinals finished 10-6 this season, but when you play the Rams and Seahawks twice each, 4 wins are pretty much assured. Only 3 of the teams on their schedule made the playoffs, and Minnesota was the only one they were able to beat. Indianapolis and Green Bay both thrashed the Cardinals, though to be fair, they clearly weren't trying to hard against the Packers. Kurt Warner was pretty solid as usual with 3,753 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions to his credit. It certainly doesn't hurt to have Larry Fitzgerald (97 receptions, 1,092 yards, 13 TDs) and Anquan Boldin (84 receptions, 1,024 yards, 4 TDs) on the other end of your passes though. It was the emergence of a running game that made the Cardinals look a little different this season however. The combination of Tim Hightower and rookie Beanie Wells at running back was a mostly successful one in the desert. Hightower finished with 598 yards and 8 TDs, while Wells had 793 yards and 7 TDs. Hightower also contributed to the passing game a great deal with 63 catches. The Cardinals have been known for their offensive prowess for awhile now, but it was an impressive season for the defense as well, especially against the run. They dropped off a bit later in the year, but in the early going, Arizona proved very difficult to run the ball against.
All signs would indicate this game is going to be a score fest with two high powered offenses going at it. I just discussed the Cardinals ability to both pass and run the ball, but the Packers were the only team in the league to have a 4,000 yard passer, 1,000 yard rusher, and two 1,000 yard receivers. Ryan Grant quietly ran for 1,253 yards and 11 touchdowns this season, while both Donald Driver and Greg Jennings surpassed the 1,000 yard mark while combining for 138 receptions and 10 scores. To top it off, Jermichael Finley has established himself as one of the top threats at tight end as well, hauling in 5 touchdowns himself. With such a variety of weapons at their disposal, it's going to be tough for the Cardinals to choose who to try and shut down.
These two teams are amongst the 3 Wild Card matchups that are repeats of Week 17 games. Unfortunately, I don't think there is much to be learned from that game in this case. The Packers pretty clearly went out and played as normal, while the Cardinals didn't show much effort at all. Green Bay took home a 33-7 victory, but in the end, the result was rather meaningless. Nothing was going to change due to the result of the game, so the Cardinals took the opportunity to rest up their starters. Though, like New England, they might have waited a bit too long to do so, as Anquan Boldin suffered an injury to his leg. As of right now, the MRI results are not available, but speculation is that Boldin will not be able to play on Sunday. Steve Breaston is a very talented 3rd receiver for Arizona, but he's no Boldin either.
Essentially what this game boils down to is who's defense can slow the other team down enough to get the win. The Packers most glaring problem all year has been their inability to keep Aaron Rodgers standing upright. He was sacked a ridiculous 50 times on the year, tying him for the most in the league. The Cardinals also get to the quarterback quite successfully, finishing 6th in the NFL with 43 sacks on the season. This could obviously result in a long day for Rogers, but he's managed to be very successful despite this issue. The fact that he only threw 7 interceptions despite the pressure he faced says a great deal about his ability to withstand it. While Arizona was improved on defense this season, they still ranked 20th overall, while the Packers were #2. Green Bay was also the top run defending team in the league. Add those numbers up, and it tells me that Green Bay is much more likely to slow down the Cardinal defense, especially without Boldin, than Arizona is likely to stop a Green Bay team that is just loaded with weapons.
I've had this funny feeling that we hadn't seen the last of the great Favre/Vikings/Packers saga for the year for awhile now, and it still looks like a realistic possibility to me. Arizona is the 1 point favorite with the odds makers, but Green Bay is going to win this one outright. I'm taking the Packers by double digits.
Saturday Games:
NY Jets @ Cincinnati (-2.5) - #1 Defense in the league + #1 Rushing attack in the league = Playoff success, despite rookie QB. I'll take the Jets to win outright by 3 in an ugly one.
Philadelphia @ Dallas (-4) - Dallas has sold me lately, but I still can't trust them. McNabb has one of his random unreal games and goes off on the 'Boys. Eagles outright by 6.
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