Getting Called Out

Sometimes when writing about sports you're wrong. I'm not talking about the type of wrong where you purposely write something because you believe in crazy things like jinxes or reverse jinxes. Because really, who would actually believe those things? I'm talking about just being flat out wrong in every way imaginable. It happens, its part of the gig, and I'm here to come clean.

I made a promise to myself recently that things are going to be different next decade. I'm even calling it "The Decade of Devin" and considering making a website for it. Seriously. I figure that everyone makes resolutions on December 31st and usually breaks those by January 10th, myself included. Well I wanted this year to be different. There is a huge list of things I want to change and I figured what better way to usher in those changes than to coincide them with the new decade.

(I'm aware that the 'end of the decade' could be 2010. I've really heard it both ways and I'm not sure which is right anymore. All I know is that when people talk about the 80's, they are talking about 1980-1989, so therefore I'm considering 2009 as the end of the decade. If you don't like it, tough.)

On my somewhat enormous list of changes, one is to hold myself more accountable. Hence the reason I'm calling myself out. Regular readers of the site may remember an article I wrote called Five Pre-Training Camp Predictions for the Buffalo Bills, where I posted my somewhat optimistic predictions for the current NFL season. They almost didn't make sense when you realize I also wrote about the Bills in my AFC East preview 45 days later and predicted a 5-11 record for the Bills. Of course this was after the preseason was played out and I saw what a steaming pile the Bills were going to be this year, but it was also a classic example of how I can't control my homer tendencies with my realistic tendencies. Remember, I'm the same person who once sat with my Dad at his birthday dinner in late October of 2008 and proclaimed Trent Edwards to be the real deal and said how nice it was that the Bills finally have a franchise QB, only to turn around one month later in a loss to San Francisco and scream so loud at Edwards on TV that I surely frightened members of my family that were in the room.

So as this year and decade come to a close, I want to come clean and hold myself accountable for things I've said. This is one of them. Here is a recap of my five predictions.


1. The Bills will eclipse 400 points scored for the entire season.

Where do I start with this? It seemed so easy on paper. Naturally I ignored the patchwork offensive line that was supposed to protect Trent Edwards. I also ignored the inadequacy of Trent Edwards as an NFL quarterback. When you go into the season fearing that Ryan Fitzpatrick might play any meaningful minutes, and then you're excited he is starting by late October, there is something seriously wrong.

As it stands with four games remaining in the season, the Bills have racked up an impressive 199 points scored. That is a mere 201 short of my prediction. Basically, they need to score 51 points per game in the next four games to just barely eclipse the 400 point barrier. I wouldn't rule it out against Kansas City after last year's game, but to be honest, they will be lucky to score 25 per game for the rest of the season.

In my defense, I wrote this prediction before they fired offensive coordinator Turk Schonert. Was he a good coordinator? Not so much. But it surely didn't help the offense that 10 days before opening night they had to adjust to a brand new coordinator. Then again, this one was doomed from the start.

2. Despite missing the first three games due to suspension, Marshawn Lynch will set a career mark for rushing yards.

Believe it or not, I'm listing these exactly like I had them in my original article and not ranking them on a level of how ridiculous they were.

I have to say, I really had faith in this one. Lynch had missed games in the past due to injury, so this was really no different on the surface. After seeing how well Fred Jackson ran in the first three weeks, I surely thought Lynch could pick up on that and run away with this one. Well so far in nine games; Lynch has a whopping 338 yards, or 37.5 per game. So much for Beast Mode, eh?

But I'm not worried. He only needs to average around 180 yards per game for the final four weeks to make me look like a smart guy. I suppose I could ignore the fact that Fred Jackson has rightfully reclaimed his spot as starting running back, so this definitely isn't even close to happening. Lynch will probably be lucky to average 18 yards per game to round out the season. On a more positive note, Jackson currently has 632 yards rushing this season, which puts the combination of the two players near 1000 yards with four more games to play. So I suppose if you could combine them into one running back, Marshawn Jackson, my prediction would be pretty spot on.

3. Aaron Schobel will finish with a double digit sack total for the first time since 2006 when he finished with 14.

Now this my friends, this is the crown jewel of my predictions. As I sit here today typing this, Schobel has seven sacks on the season, which is the most he's had since 2006. If you were to remove the words "double digit" from my prediction and just say "highest total since 2006", I'd be dead on with this one. Yes!!

Unfortunately, I did say double digit. Schobel will have to get at least three sacks in the next four games to make this come true. Luckily for the Bills, they have the Chiefs this weekend. Matt Cassel has been sacked 37 times in 11 games this season. My optimistic side says that Schobel could very well get all three sacks this Sunday. If he doesn't, they play the Falcons in two weeks who might be without Matt Ryan. Worst case, they have the Colts in the final week who may be resting Peyton Manning and throwing Joe Schmo in as starting QB.

This one has to happen, right?

4. The Bills will finish .500 or better within the AFC East this season.

There is hope for this one, albeit a slim amount of hope. The Bills are currently 2-3 in the division with one game remaining against New England. They met my expectations by splitting with the Dolphins, but fell short in splitting with the Jets. Of course, had they played the second game in Orchard Park, they surely would've won with another five interception game for The Sanchize.

The only issue with counting on a win against New England is that the Bills haven't defeated them since the opening of the 2003 season. So realistically, I don't see it happening. Although, the Patriots are starting to fall apart and this may be the perfect opportunity for the Bills to get a win against their somewhat hated rivals. Hell, the Browns just beat the Steelers so anything is possible.

I'm putting this one in the 'maybe' column with Aaron Schobel.

5. The Bills run defense will be in the top ten in the league.

Just kidding, that wasn't my fifth prediction. If it was, I'd be forced to turn in my fan card and start following the WNBA from now on. Alas…

5. The tight end position will once again become relevant for the Buffalo Bills.

I was really starting to believe this one on opening night when Shawn Nelson immediately contributed with a touchdown reception. Unfortunately, that was the highlight of his season. Nelson has battled through several injuries this season and has only amassed 11 receptions. To break that down, he needs roughly 7.25 receptions in the final four games to reach 40. The odds of this happening are right up there with me winning the Powerball this weekend.

On the positive side, the combination of Derek Fine, Derek Schouman, and Jonathan Stupar have contributed 20 receptions this season. This puts the entire set of tight ends just short of 40 with 31 receiptions. Much more attainable when you think about it that way. It also would have been a sure thing if Captain Checkdown has remained under center.

Oh well, you can't get everything right, much like my beloved Buffalo Bills.

Good thing we're both starting the next decade with a fresh start.



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