Projecting the 2010 Buffalo Bills


Back in 2008 when I wrote articles here and there at Billszone, I tried my hand at projecting the Bills schedule before the season started. In that article, I made one huge fatal mistake that doomed the entire article. For a brief moment, I turned into a total homer and completely forgot that the team was still coached by Dick Jauron. Looking back at it, I can't believe that I actually thought the Bills would finish 10-6. At least my negative opinion on Brett Favre has remained consistent throughout the years.

I never projected the 2009 Bills schedule; however I did predict them to finish 5-11 in my AFC East preview, so that kind of counts, right? Unlike the Bills, I made a huge improvement within one season. This excites me greatly. And with that, let's break down the 2010 Buffalo Bills schedule in brutal game-by-game detail.

Week 1: Miami Dolphins

I can see the Bills winning this game for a couple of reasons. First, it's opening day and that is usually the week where most upsets occur. Let us not forget that on two separate opening weeks in Foxboro, the Bills came within a handful of points of upsetting the Patriots. Second, spinning off my first point, the Dolphins aren't the Patriots and this game is being played in Buffalo. Third, the Bills throttled the Dolphins at home last season and I'd like to think the Bills are a little bit better going into this season (maybe). On a positive note for the Dolphins, Brandon Marshall will play a huge role in this game since it's unlikely that he'll be arrested this early in the season. (1-0)

Week 2: @ Green Bay Packers

I really see no way that the Bills can beat the Packers, let alone beating them in Green Bay. The last time Buffalo and Green Bay faced each other, the Bills came out on top thanks in large part to multiple bonehead turnovers from the turnover machine himself, Brett Favre. However Green Bay has moved on and improved greatly in this area. The Bills strongest point is their pass defense, but I still don't think it will be good enough to stop Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay passing attack. In case everyone forgot his last meaningful game, Rodgers went off in Arizona to the tune of 28 for 42, 423 yards, 4 touchdowns, and a 121.3 QB rating. Granted the Green Bay secondary was shredded worse by Kurt Warner, but um, the Bills will most likely be starting Trent Edwards, who isn't exactly Kurt Warner. Interesting note, this game has the potential to be the Brian Brohm grudge match if he wins the starting job. Seriously, this is what we've resorted to as Bills fans. (1-1)

Week 3: @ New England Patriots

It's been so long since Buffalo defeated New England that I can barely remember when it happened. I'm not even going to look this up but I feel pretty confident in stating that the Bills have never won a game in Gillette Stadium since it became the new home for the Patriots several years ago. With that in mind, I see no reason to think that this year will be any different. My Boston angst continues. (1-2)

Week 4: NY Jets

The Bills and Jets are usually good for splitting the season series, despite how good or bad each team is. Last year they split and the Bills were a five win team while the Jets were one win away from the Super Bowl. In 2008 the Jets swept Buffalo, but that is only because the glorious combination of Losman and Jauron decided to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. They must have been returning the favor because in 2007 the Bills swept. In 2003, 2004, 2005, and 2006, all splits. So really for me, it's a matter of which game do the Bills get and which do the Jets get. Since their second meeting will be in Week 17 where the Jets will probably have the playoffs locked up and playing scrub ball, I'll give this game to the Jets and that game to the Bills. (1-3)

Week 5: Jacksonville Jaguars

Last season the Bills almost beat the Jags in Jacksonville. Given the circumstances, it really showed how bad the Jags were. The Bills had just fired their coach and Ryan Fitzpatrick was starting the game. If that wasn't enough, Fitzpatrick hit Terrell Owens for a 98 yard touchdown at one point in the game. I have to be honest, even in past seasons when the Jags were playoff bound, I've never really thought of them as a good team. Given that this game is early in the season and in Buffalo, I can very well see the Bills stealing this game with a last second field goal. (2-3)

Week 6: BYE

Week 7: @ Baltimore Ravens

Coming out of the bye week, it's the Willis McGahee revenge game: part two. The first revenge game was won by Buffalo, but to be honest, it felt like a loss. If it wasn't for Rian Lindell bailing out the pathetic Bills offense with four field goals, the Bills easily lose that game. In addition to that, the Bills benefitted from some horrendous play calling by Baltimore and their now former coach, Brian Billick. Finally, McGahee scored on a 46 yard touchdown run and finished the day with 114 yards, so it wasn't like the Bills shut him down and proved any point. If anything he stuck it to Buffalo a little bit, despite losing the game. This time the game is in Baltimore and the Ravens have Joe Flacco, not Kyle Boller. (2-4)

Week 8: @ Kansas City Chiefs

For as bad as the Bills have been the past two seasons, Kansas City has actually been worse. If you don't believe me, please see exhibit A and exhibit B. In fact, the Chiefs haven't defeated the Bills since 2003. You can go ahead and put me in the group of people that was never really impressed with Matt Cassel and figured that Kansas City was making a huge mistake last season. I don't see any reason why this year will be any different. Plus I'm sure Chan Gailey would like to get back at his former team just a little bit. (3-4)

Week 9: Chicago Bears (Toronto)

I'm sure the Bills could beat the Bears, but that would require the Bills to actually win a game in the lifeless "Bills in Toronto" series that makes just about every Bills fan sick. I have absolutely no fear of the Bills leaving for Canada, so that isn't the reason this game bothers me at all. It's more along the lines of the Bills throwing away a home game, playing on a crappy field in the Rogers Centre, and playing in front of about 30,000 fans who could give a damn about the Bills. It's practically a neutral field game. Reminds me of those junky bowl games in mid-December that nobody cares about. At least the Bills smartened up and stopped giving away division games. (3-5)

Week 10: Detroit Lions

The Lions might be an improved team, which isn't saying much, but the Bills should be able to get a win here. Don't get me wrong, the Bills are a bad team, but please also remember that the Lions are a team that has two combined victories in their last 32 regular season games. It will be interesting to see these two teams actually play a real game though. I'm so used to just seeing them play their annual scrub bowl game in the last week of the pre-season that this should be a nice change of pace for sure. Then again, a week 10 meeting between the Bills and Lions isn't exactly a marquee matchup. (4-5)

Week 11: @ Cincinnati Bengals

I bet you're thinking there is no way the Bills can beat the Bengals on the road this late in the season. This is where I say you're wrong. I know this means absolutely nothing in regards to the game this year, but does anybody realize the last time the Bengals even defeated the Bills. I'll give everyone a hint: I was only three years old. That's right; it was in January of 1988. Again, I know this has no bearing on the game this season, but when you're a Bills fan, crazy trends and statistics are about all we have to go on. (5-5)

At this point I'd like to note that this will officially start the "mathematically in the playoff race" talk for the Bills, when in reality, there is no way they are making the playoffs. It's an annual tradition for us Bills fans and late November seems like a good time to start it off.

Week 12: Pittsburgh Steelers

For me personally, not all Bills fans, these two weeks of the season are going to be pure hell. Even the occasional reader of this site should be able to pick up on the fact that I really dislike all Pittsburgh sports and I'm not exactly wearing Wranglers and joining the Brett Favre fan club anytime soon. Honestly, the Bills could go 2-14 this season with these two games being the only wins, and I'd be perfectly content with that. All that being said, the Bills will lose these two games and make my life a living hell until at least early February. On the positive side, I'm pretty sure I'm going to break the record for most rapist jokes told in a one week span. (5-6)

Week 13: @ Minnesota Vikings

If I were a fortunate sports fan, things would make sense, and Brett Favre would turn the ball over at least four times and throw away an easy victory against the Bills. Watching Brett Favre play is like being a little kid and waking up on Christmas morning. The anticipation of the inevitable turnover that costs his team the game is overwhelming at times. Last season Favre did his best to disprove this theory, but the world righted itself when it mattered most and as we all know, the Saints went on to win the Super Bowl. So like I said, if things made sense, the sports gods would throw me a bone and let the Bills win this game while forcing multiple turnovers. But that isn't the way things work for Buffalo fans and I'm starting to accept that. Instead Favre will most likely go off for at least three touchdowns while posting a perfect 158.3 QB rating. Oh and I'm pretty sure whoever I'm playing in fantasy that week will start Favre and ruin my season there as well. (5-7)

Week 14: Cleveland Browns

The Bills should be able to beat the Browns at home. Then again, they should've been able to beat the Browns at home the past two seasons as well. In fact, the Browns have actually defeated the Bills in the past three seasons, all by a combined 13 points. This includes a game that ended 8-0 and 6-3. Let's just say these two teams don't get together and put on the greatest show for the fans. Something has to give though. I can't possibility mark down a fourth consecutive loss to the Browns. (6-7)

Week 15: @Miami Dolphins

I hate how the NFL schedule has the Dolphins in Buffalo for the early game and the Bills in Miami for the late game. We all know it should be flipped around so the Dolphins are playing in the elements. Not that it matters though. By this point in the season the Bills will probably have an NFL leading 26 people on injured reserve and starting players that just finished their UFL season. (6-8)

Week 16: New England Patriots

If the Patriots haven't sealed the division by this point of the season, this game should do the trick. The Patriots have dominated the Bills so much recently that I wouldn't be surprised if they just became part owners of the team. The trend has to end sometime but there is no way I'm predicting it. I've been down that road before and it's ruined my credibility. What? I never had any credibility to start. Hmm, oh well. (6-9)

Week 17: @ NY Jets

As I highlighted above, the Bills and Jets are a safe bet to split the season series which would give the Bills the Week 17 victory and a solid seven wins for the 2010 season. One way this would be avoided is if the Jets need this victory to make the playoffs and actually show up to play. Otherwise, mark it down as a split. (7-9)

I have to be completely honest; predicting the Bills to finish 7-9 is taking a gigantic leap of faith. They could realistically be a two or three win team in 2010. However, that would give the Bills the number one or two overall draft pick in 2011, and we wouldn't want that to happen. The Bills have specialized in being bad enough to consistently miss the playoffs, but good enough to at least have mid-round draft pick. 7-9 sounds just right.

Jordan Leopold Reaction


The news on July 1st that the Sabres only signed Jordan Leopold was met with this type of reaction.

Sabres: "The Sabres have reached an agreement with Jordan Leopold"

Generic Fan A: "Who is that?"
Generic Fan B: "Some guy from Pittsburgh."
(Frantically Googling 'Jordan Leopold')
Generic Fan B: "He isn't a big name, I hate this."
Generic Fan A: "Wow, the Sabres are awful. How could they do this to me?"
Needless to say, it was an overreaction of epic proportions. Is Jordan Leopold the answer? Hardly. Is he a great signing? Not really. Was it that terrible? No, it wasn't.

Combine this with the overreaction to losing Toni Lydman and Henrik Tallinder and what you're left with is a massive headache. Just to review a few things, Lydman and Tallinder are easily replaceable. Neither was overwhelming during their time in Buffalo. In fact, before last season, most of the Sabres fan base wanted Tallinder run out of town. You can put me in that crowd. In fact, I wrote numerous times last offseason that I wanted the Sabres to dish off both contracts before they expire, even if it resulted in them getting a bag of pucks in return.

Flash forward to this season and all of a sudden losing both guys is a bad thing. Just for the sake of argument, here are the numbers for all three players for the past two seasons. Numbers don't tell the whole story, but they help paint a picture.

2009-10

GP
Goals
Assists
Points
PP Points
+/-
Leopold
81
11
15
26
1
-2
Tallinder
82
4
16
20
0
+13
Lydman
67
4
16
20
0
+10


 

2008-09

GP
Goals
Assists
Points
PP Points
+/-
Leopold
83*
7
17
24
1
-15
Tallinder
66
1
11
12
0
-2
Lydman
80
3
20
23
0
0

*Traded at deadline which accounts for one extra game played.

Leopold got identical money as Lydman got from Anaheim. +/- is the only real stat that Lydman was better than Leopold in. Otherwise, they are basically the same. The real difference between the two is that Leopold scores more goals. Just throwing this out there, but the Sabres could use some more goal scoring from their blue line.

As for Tallinder, where do we start? I already mentioned how nobody wanted him around but what changed this past season? Well for one, he had a major bounce back season that must have brain washed the fans' minds into thinking he was good again. So why did he have a bounce back season? Contract year? Paired up with Tyler Myers? You decide. I'm no expert (obviously), but watch New Jersey regret his contract roughly halfway through its tenure.

Again, I'm not getting on my soap box and backing this decision 100%. In fact for the sake of argument, here is what I wrote about him just before free agency started. But I also realize that it's only July 6th and the Sabres don't lace up the skates for a number of weeks still.

In a solid and under the radar signing, the Sabres re-inked Cody McCormick to another one year deal. The big difference this season compared to last is that this year it's a one way deal, which would indicate that he'll be spending the entire season up with Buffalo as opposed to Portland.

I was extremely high on McCormick in my Sabres season preview, maybe even a little too high on him seeing that he didn't even make the roster. That being said, he was called up during the playoffs and played very well in the final three games. Apparently the Sabres front office agrees because it looks like he'll be replacing Adam Mair or Matt Ellis. Actually, both might not return with this move.

From what I know about McCormick, I'm pretty excited to see him in Buffalo all season long.

So what's the next move gonna be?

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