UFC 99 Preview

It's time again for yet another UFC pay per view, this time it's UFC 99 taking place in Cologne, Germany. Just a reminder, since this card does take place in Germany, you can catch in on pay per view at both 3pm EST and again at 10pm EST on Saturday, June 13th. I've heard many say that this card isn't a particularly good one, but I'd have to disagree and say that the main card itself is one of the better ones we've seen in a while.

The main event between Wanderlei Silva and Rich Franklin promises to be full of action as both like to press forward. Cheick Kongo and Cain Velasquez has big implications in the heavyweight division. Mike Swick vs. Ben Saunders could move us towards the next contender at welterweight, while Marcus Davis and Dan Hardy's war of words and love of throwing bombs should make for another exciting fight. Finally, we have the UFC return of Mirko Cro Cop who has to have a good showing if he wants to stick around this time. For the sake of space and time, I'm only going to break down the two main event fights, but suffice it to say that I think this could be a very entertaining card heading into next month's blockbuster UFC 100.

Rich "Ace" Franklin vs. Wanderlei "The Axe Murderer" Silva - Catchweight: 195 lbs.

Both these fighters are heading in opposite directions as Franklin prepares to move back to the light heavyweight division, mostly because nobody wants to see him get killed by Anderson Silva again, while Wanderlei is heading down to 185 and the middleweight division. First, however, they're going to meet in the middle and fight at 195 lbs. This fight will doubtfully be boring, mostly because Silva is involved and he always presses the action. He's probably the most aggressive fighter in the world of MMA and has a tendency to either knockout his opponent or get knocked out. Franklin tends to be similar, but to a lesser degree. Both of them will certainly prefer to be on their feet however.

Rich Franklin brings a 24-4-1 record into this fight and most recently lost a very close split decision to Dan Henderson back at UFC 93. The fight was marred a bit by some accidental headbutts that opened up some nasty cuts on Franklin's head, as well as a late fight eye poke that Rich suffered. Overall, Rich has 4 losses, which include the one to Henderson, the two brutal KOs by Anderson Silva, and a long, long ago loss to Lyoto Machida, which suddenly doesn't look too bad either. Franklin lost a lot of his prestige after Silva destroyed him twice, but people forget that Rich was one of the best in the world heading into those fights. He beat Evan Tanner for a 2nd time at UFC 53 to capture the middleweight title and defended it twice before The Spider took it away. Franklin's wins are comprised of 13 by way of either KO or TKO and 9 via submission, though only one of those submission wins has come in the UFC. Only twice has Franklin gone to decision, winning the first two before the latest lost to Henderson.

Wanderlei Silva has a career mark of 32-9-1, with 1 No Contest, and has been on a clear slump over the last 3 years, going 1-4 in his last 5 fights. To be fair, those losses came at the hands of Mirko Cro Cop, Dan Henderson, Chuck Liddell, and Rampage Jackson, who are all elite level fighters. Losses earlier in his career also include Ricardo Arona, Mark Hunt, Tito Ortiz, and Vitor Belfort, again, all of which are well known fighters. Along the way, he's also beaten many top opponents, such as Arona, Rampage x2, Dan Henderson, and Sakuraba x2. Silva is a former Pride Middleweight (205 lbs) champ, which he defended 4 times, in addition to winning the 2003 Middleweight Grand Prix. However, his time in the UFC hasn't been such a success, thus far only beating Keith Jardine. His reputation as a ruthless striker who always presses the action makes him an opponent to always be feared, but he desperately needs a win at this point.

Common Opponents

I always like to take a look at any common opponents that two fighters have had before they do battle to try and gauge how they might fare against one another, and in this case, there is only one man that both have faced. Wanderlei Silva first beat Dan Henderson almost 9 years ago in December of 2000. Silva won a unanimous decision on that night, giving Henderson his first career loss. When the two would fight again, in February of 2007, it was for Silva's middleweight title. This time around Henderson knocked out Silva with a brutal left hook to become the first person to hold title's in 2 different weight classes in a major promotion. Franklin, as already mentioned, did battle with Henderson at UFC 93 in January of this year and lost a very close split decision. The first Silva/Henderson fight can kind of be thrown out in my opinion since it was nearly 9 years ago, and the later fight is much more indicative of where both fighters are at in their careers now. Franklin doesn't quite have the power of Henderson, but that's not to say he can't knock somebody out.

Of Interest


One of the major stories leading into this fight is that Anderson Silva called up Rich Franklin and invited him to come train with him prior to this fight. The reason this is of interest is because Anderson was a former training partner of Wanderlei's back at the Chute Boxe Academy in Brazil. It seems as though Anderson is not pleased with Wanderlei moving down to his weight class and decided to try and help Franklin gameplan to beat him. This may or may not help of course, but one thing that comes quickly to mind for me is the clinch game. It was Anderson Silva's Muay Thai clinch that helped him so completely destroy Franklin when they fought. If Anderson was able to help Franklin learn how to properly defend it, it would be very advantageous as Wanderlei posesses the same ability to throw brutal knees and elbows from that position.

Prediction

This is a tough one to pick for me because both guys really need the win. Right now, I like Rich Franklin's skills a little more as Wanerlei has been on a clear downswing in ability as of late. I expect them to stand and exchange in the early going, and of course either one could get caught and have a short night, but I think Franklin's defense is much tighter and if he can fend off Silva's onslaught in the early going, he should be able to take over and dictate the pace and place the fight occurs at. I see Franklin catching a very tired Silva late in the fight and following it up with strikes for a TKO victory.

Cheick Kongo vs. Cain Velasquez

This fight was set up on very short notice, as Kongo stepped up to replace an ill Heath Herring. The change wasn't made until May 20th, so Kongo only gets about 3 weeks to prepare for this fight. Kongo is looking to cement his spot as the next contender to the UFC Heavyweight title, while a win for Velasquez would certainly throw his name into the mix as well.

Cheick Kongo is a 34 year old native of Paris, France and has one of the most imposing figures in all of MMA. At 6'4 and somewhere around 235 lbs., the man looks like a wall of muscle, ready to kick your head off at any moment. Kongo is very adept at both Muay Thai and Kickboxing, which leads to him being one of the top strikers in the heavyweight division of the UFC. His career record is 14-4-1 and he's 7-2 in the UFC. He doesn't have the most distinguished list of opponents, but he has beaten Mirko Cro Cop and his current 3 fight TKO win streak was capped off most recently by beating Antoni Hardonk at UFC 97. His losses include a rather embarassing effort against the man he's replacing, Heath Herring at UFC 82, as well as a loss to Carmelo Marrero at UFC 64. As mentioned, Kongo has won his last 3 fights, all via TKO, with only the Hardonk fight making it into the 2nd round. A win would likely cement his place as the next heavyweight to get a shot at the title, once Brock Lesnar and Frank Mir decide who owns it at UFC 100.

Cain Velasquez is one of the most promising young heavyweights in the world. He comes into this fight with an umblemished 5-0 record, having won every one of his fights by TKO due to punches. Velasquez is just 26 years old and trains with American Kickboxing Academy in San Jose, California. His background includes being a 2 time All American in wrestling while at Arizona State University. While Cain is a wrestler first and foremost, he has proven himself to be a powerful striker as well, as I mentioned, finishing all 5 of his pro fights via stoppages due to strikes. Virtually everybody speaks of this guy as being one of the most well rounded fighters in the division and the expectations for his career are sky high. He really hasn't fought anybody too notable as of yet and his last fight against Dennis Stojnic at Fight Night: Lauzon vs. Stephens was his first to make it past the first round. This will be by far the biggest test of his career thus far and a win could catapult him right to the top of the UFC's heavyweight ranks.

Strategy


Since these guys have no common opponents, I'll take a look at the strategies likely to be employed in this fight. Kongo is a striker first and foremost and possesses pretty vicious Muay Thai skills for a guy his size. Kongo's glaring weakness early on in his UFC career was his ground game as he has been held down with relative ease on more than one occasion. It's clearly something he's worked on however as he was able to keep Mirko Cro Cop grounded and beat away on him for 3 rounds in their fight. Still, I think there is little doubt that Kongo would much prefer to stay on his feet in this fight and try and pick apart Velasquez with his superior striking skills.

Velasquez also has pretty solid striking and I get the feeling he'll want to test himself on his feet with Kongo in the early going. This might not be the smartest strategy, but it surely hasn't stopped guys in the past from trying it. Cain's best chance in my opinion is to use his dominant wrestling to get Kongo on the ground and keep him there. He should grind away on him with strikes from the top and work for a ground and pound stoppage. It's my opinion that Velasquez has the ability to dictate where this fight goes and that he should use that advantage, I'm just not so sure he will. He's clearly very confident in himself and as a young guy in the business, I won't be surprised at all if he trys to bang it out.

Prediction

As I just mentioned, the outcome of this fight is going to be determined by where it's fought. If Velasquez decides to make it a ground war, he should stay in control, while if it stays on the feet, I think Kongo is the better striker and will do more damage. Either way, I'm expecting this fight to go the distance and end up in a decision, so it's just a matter of where they fight. My guess is it mostly stays standing and Kongo outpoints Velasquez with cleaner, more damaging strikes.

Other Fights

As I mentioned in the opening, there are some other intriguing fights on the main card of this show, including Mike Swick (13-2) vs. Ben Saunders (7-0) in a battle of potential #1 contenders for the welterweight title. Marcus Davis (16-4) and Dan Hardy (21-6) have had an interesting war of words leading up to their fight, and both of those guys love to throw, so it should be explosive. Finally, Mirko Cro Cop (24-6-2, 1NC) makes his return to The Octagon in a virtual must win situation. He was given a one fight deal by Dana White to try and redeem his previous poor performance when he went 1-2 while in the UFC. He's gone 2-0 along with a no contest since leaving and returns to fight Mostapha Al-Turk (6-4) who was last seen getting destroyed by Cheick Kongo at UFC 92. Cro Cop seems to have fully recovered from some health problems centering around his knee and will hopefully be back in his previous form for this go round.

Full Fight Card

Main Card Fights:
Wanderlei Silva (32-9-1) vs. Rich Franklin (24-4)
Cain Velasquez (5-0) vs. Cheick Kongo (14-4-1)
Spencer Fisher (22-4) vs. Caol Uno (25-11-4)
Mike Swick (13-3) vs. Ben Saunders (8-1-2)
Marcus Davis (16-5) vs. Dan Hardy (21-6)
Mirko Cro Cop (24-6-2) vs. Mustapha Al-Turk (6-4)

Undercard Fights:
Terry Etim (12-2) vs. Justin Buchholz (8-2)
Dale Hartt (6-1) vs. Dennis Siver (13-6)
Stefan Struve (16-3) vs. Denis Stojnic (5-2)
Peter Sobotta (8-1) vs. Paul Taylor (9-5-1)
Paul Kelly (8-1) vs. Roli Delgado (6-5-1)

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