NBA Finals: Preview and Prediction

This just in! The Orlando Magic can play some basketball... I'm sure most people have them written off already in the Finals against the mighty Kobe and the Lakers, but I won't be one of them. See, I already made that mistake once when they played the Cleveland LeBrons. I was under the silly impression that things had changed in the Mistake by the Lake (I use that term in jest, I'm sure Cleveland is a fine city, and they certainly get my sympathy as a Buffalo sports fan), but that just wasn't the case. When it came down to crunch time, LeBron was left standing on his own and he simply didn't have enough answers.

See, at the beginning of the year, I told my younger brother who is a big time Cavs fan, mostly due to James of course, that Mo Williams wasn't the difference maker the media was trying to make him out to be. Throughout the regular season, I prepared to eat crow as it seemed that Williams really was a solid contributor and obviously made the Cavs a better team, as their NBA best record would attest to. The series with Orlando showed the truth however. When Cleveland desperately needed some help to show up for LeBron, nobody stood up. James put up out of this world numbers, and while that might work on a nightly basis against a different team in a different city, a 7 game series will exploit all the fatal flaws. But enough about that, this isn't about Cleveland anymore, because in the ever wise words of TNT's Kenny Smith and Charles Barkley, the Cavaliers have "Gone Fishin'".

Orlando proved what they are capable of and that beating Boston wasn't a mistake. Though I will agree with Devin, a healthy Garnett makes that series completely different. The Magic play team basketball and don't rely on any one person to carry the load at all times. They possess a very rare ability to make opponents pay in a variety of ways. They are deadly when they are hitting their 3's, something they did all series long against Cleveland. How do they get those wide open looks you ask? Pound the rock inside to the best center in the NBA. Dwight Howard's performance in Game 6 of the Conference Finals was one of the best I've ever seen from him, and keep in mind this is a 23 year old kid we're talking about. I will take a second to add that he has something else going for him that most NBA players don't either. He's a true devout Christian, which means he's not out there drinking, smoking, screwing, etc all the time. His body will thank him for that down the road and it could help him have a long and fruitful career.

Well, since it takes two teams to have a championship series, I'd be remiss if I didn't speak about the Lakers as well. Los Angeles frustrates me much of the time because they really pick and choose when they feel like showing up to play, as was witnessed early in the playoffs. Denver was a much better team than I gave them credit for, but the Lakers made it clear that when they put forth a true effort, nobody in the West could touch them. Game 6 in particular was just embarassing as the Lakers throttled the Nuggets and sent them packing. There is no doubt that Kobe is probably the best pure scorer in the NBA right now, and he shows it from time to time. The difference between him and LeBron is that the Lakers don't really need him to play that way. In fact, I think they are at their best when Bryant is more of a facilitator for others. If he scores 25-30 and has 10 assists, they're better off than the nights he drops 40+ and takes 35 shots.

Every time I think Bryant learns this lesson however, we see him revert and just jack up shots left and right. I think this is one of the reasons I've never been much of a fan. I won't deny his abilities in the least, but I think he has some very selfish tendencies and sometimes cares more about his own stat line than the success of his team. So unlike Devin, I will be clearly siding with Orlando in this series. Those who know me well, know that a large portion of the reason I've never been huge on the NBA is the lack of team ball that is played and the focus on individuals all the time. Orlando is one of the few examples where the team seems to come first.

This series is going to be an interesting one and to me, one factor will play the largest role in determining the outcome. It's all about the matchups. Cleveland couldn't figure them out at all, we'll see if the Lakers fair better. Do you try and shut down Howard in the middle and rely on hoping that the Magic don't make three point shots all night long? Do you deal with Howard owning the paint in trade for shutting down the outside shot? On the flip side, how are the Magic going to shut down Kobe Bryant? Do they let him go like they did LeBron and trust that nobody else will be able to help him and that he can't win it by himself? These questions will be the key to the series, and ultimately their answers rest in the hands of the coaches. That's one area where Orlando is at a decided disadvantage. Stan Van Gundy is a solid coach, even if listening to him on the sidelines makes me want to stuff large wads of cotton in my ears. However, he is not Phil Jackson. Sure Jackson has had the luxury of having a few of the most talented players in history on his side of things, but he doesn't own 9 rings because of that alone. Look for Jackson to make the adjustments necessary to win the matchup game.

Personally, if I were the Lakers, my first concern would be trying to eliminate the wide open 3's that Orlando is so good at getting. I'd take my chances with Dwight Howard, because as much as I enjoy watching him and as talented as I think he is, he has this very frustrating trend of not showing up from time to time. For every 35 point, 22 rebound game, there seems to be one of those 14 points and 13 rebound performances right around the corner. The Lakers have Andrew Bynum, Pau Gasol, and Lamar Odom to throw at Howard, none of whom can truly guard him when he plays as he is capable of, but I'd keep sending him to the foul line as much as possible. He's stepped up his free throw shooting as of late, but it's still his biggest weakness.

Conversely, I'd expect Orlando to throw some combination of Courtney Lee and Mickael Pietrus at Bryant. They're both good defenders and they might slow him down slightly, but there is no real use in thinking anybody is going to actually stop him. That is the only position I'd be really concerned about for Orlando though. I think they match up well defensively with the rest of the Lakers regulars. Though Trevor Ariza might be a little too athletic for Orlando's small forwards to handle. Another note of interest is the expected return of Orlando's point guard Jameer Nelson. I'm a little torn on this topic as the guy was an all star player before being lost to injury, but I'm a big believer of not messing with a team's chemistry at this time of year. Nelson would likely only play limited minutes coming off the bench at any rate, but he clearly wouldn't be in the physical condition needed for NBA Finals basketball. Point guard is the weakest spot for the Lakers however, and if the Magic can use Nelson along with Rafer Alston to exploit that and pick up some extra scoring there, it'll go a long ways towards the Magic's chances at their first NBA title.

Much like with the Stanley Cup Finals, my heart and head are torn in making a prediction with this series. I'd love for Orlando to win and send Kobe home with another frustrating loss and still no trophy sans Shaq, however, I think the Lakers are the more skilled and experienced team in this situation. As Devin mentioned in his article, the Lakers took care of business and made it clear that they hadn't reached their goal yet, while the Magic just looked like kids in a candy shop to even make the NBA Finals. That says a lot to me. I went with my head in the NHL, though it seems as though my heart might win out... I think I'll try the reverse curse practice here and hope it works as well.

Los Angeles in 6 games.

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