So we're finally here; the Olympic break. A two week rest from NHL hockey while we focus on the world's best playing in Vancouver for the 2010 Winter Games. The Sabres ended their longest losing streak of the season in good fashion last Saturday night against San Jose and head into the break on a positive note, so let's review the team 60 games into the season.


 
Where They Stand

The Sabres are currently second in the Northeast Division and fifth in the Eastern Conference with 75 points. They trail the Ottawa Senators by one point in the division and have three games in hand on them. They trail Pittsburgh by one point in the conference with two games in hand on them. Out of the four teams ahead of them in the conference, the Sabres have played the fewest games, which means they have the best opportunity to gain the most points once play resumes. This is a HUGE advantage.


 
If the Playoffs Started Today

This is highly unscientific and subject to change on a near nightly basis when the games are on, but here is what the playoff matchups would look like if the playoffs started today.

Washington/Montreal, New Jersey/Boston, Ottawa/Philadelphia, and Buffalo/Pittsburgh.

Missing from the playoffs: New York Rangers. Odd. I never would've guessed that.


 
Projecting the Playoffs

When projecting the playoffs, things look much different. On their current pace, the Sabres are projected to still win the Northeast Division and finish third in the Eastern Conference. These projections are very muddled at the bottom of the conference, but that is to be expected when there is a boat load of parity in the East. Here is what the projected matchups look like.

Washington/Tampa Bay or Atlanta, New Jersey/Boston, Buffalo/Philadelphia, and Pittsburgh/Ottawa.

Missing from these projections: New York Rangers. Shocking!

I like this scenario better. I would be very confident with a first round matchup against Philadelphia. Of course, much of this would depend on what the Flyers do at the trade deadline to shore up their goaltending. If they do nothing, it will be a very quick exit for Philly. Ironically enough, Philly could bring back Martin Biron for the stretch run after letting him walk last summer for Ray Emery. Biron has had very good success against the Sabres since leaving Buffalo so this would definitely make the series more difficult.

The other matchup I really like is Pittsburgh and Ottawa. Both of these teams frighten me for different reasons so a matchup where they both beat each other up and one of them definitely gets eliminated in the first round sounds great to me.

Ottawa has owned Buffalo as of late and it really seems like they are in their head. Of course, it was the same way back in 2005-06 until the Sabres defeated them 4-1 in the second round of the playoffs, so you never know. Regardless, avoiding Ottawa would be a good thing for the Sabres. Until Buffalo proves to me that they can actually beat them, my confidence in that matchup will remain at an all time low.

I also don't like the possible matchup against Pittsburgh, but that is for all personal reasons. I live in the heart of bandwagon Penguins/Steelers country and the last thing I want to deal with is Penguins fans crawling out of the woodwork for a playoff series against Buffalo. Minus the fans, the actual matchup doesn't scare me a great deal. The Sabres have taken three of a possible six points from the Penguins so far this season while the Penguins have grabbed four out of six points. Neither Ryan Miller nor Marc-Andre Fleury has played great in these games, besides the first matchup of the season where the Penguins won 2-1 in a shootout. Backup goaltender Patrick Lalime took the loss in that particular game. Miller let up three goals in the next game against Pittsburgh before being pulled and allowed five more goals in their next game.

As you can see, the Sabres haven't had great success against Pittsburgh this season, but they also haven't played their best game. This is why the matchup doesn't register an automatic loss with me. In my mind, Pittsburgh has yet to see the Sabres at the top of their game. Then again, have the Sabres seen the Penguins with their "A game" yet? The two teams return from the Olympic break to face each other for the fourth and final time of the regular season so maybe we will get a sneak preview.


 
Grading the Forwards

Before I get to anything else on the forwards, I need to correct a mistake from a previous blog that I wrote. In this blog, I wrote that every forward that played for Buffalo last season is on pace to score fewer points this season than last besides Patrick Kaleta. That is in fact false, as Jochen Hecht is also on pace to score more this season than he did last season. To be more specific, Hecht and Kaleta have already exceeded their point totals from last season and still have 22 more games to add on to that total.

Also at this point in the season, Clarke MacArthur is on pace to finish with the same amount of points as he did last season. MacArthur started off on a hot streak but tailed off right around mid-season. At the break he is currently on a two game point streak so there is some potential for MacArthur to join Hecht and Kaleta as players who improved from last season.

Speaking of Hecht, he is on pace to finish with approximately 39 points this season, which would be 12 better than last season. While that is a nice improvement, this only magnifies just how poorly he played last season. Add to that the fact that he currently makes around 3.5 million per season and is under contract for the next two seasons, and all of a sudden this doesn't sound that great. I'd be fully on board with dumping his salary at the trade deadline if the opportunity were there.

Patrick Kaleta has only played in 41 of 60 games this season as he has recently battled some minor injuries. The good news for Buffalo is that he should be back after the two week break and ready to go for the final 22 games. Anybody who watches the Sabres on a consistent basis will tell you, the Sabres are a much different and better team with Kaleta in the lineup.

The rest of the forwards are still on pace to finish with fewer points. The two closest to last year's production are Tim Connolly and Drew Stafford. Because Connolly only played in 48 games last season, he has already exceeded his point production from last season. The reason I still have him on the list is because he roughly averages .92 points per game compared to .98 last season. So far the contract that the Sabres gave Connolly at last year's trade deadline has been a good one.

The three biggest and most obvious names on this list are Derek Roy, Thomas Vanek, and Jason Pominville. The only positive spin I can put on this for Sabres fans is that they are all currently picking up their pace in the last few games. Specifically, in the last eight games before the break; Vanek had seven points, Roy had six, and Pominville also had six. Needless to say, if this continues, the Sabres will be in a good shape going forward. Still, I think the Sabres need to make a deal or two for some more scoring before returning to action against Pittsburgh.

The name on my list is Ray Whitney from Carolina. And yes, I'm perfectly ok with them giving him a two year extension along with the trade. Whitney makes almost an identical amount of money as Jochen Hecht and out performs his greatly. Since the lockout, Whitney has finished the regular season with 55, 83, 61, and 77 points. He has 48 so far this season.

In the same amount of time, Hecht has contributed 42, 56, 49, and 27 points. He has 29 so far this season.

So again, Darcy, please make the deal for Whitney. Give him his two year extension. Even at his age, he is well worth that amount of money. Please…I'm begging you.


 
Grading the Defense/Goaltending

It's no secret that any Sabres defenseman not named Tyler Myers has struggled for a good part of the season. While I advocated for the signing of Steve Montador in the summer and applauded the Sabres for actually signing him, Montador is doing his best to make me look like a fool. His latest slip up (literally) cost the Sabres the game in overtime against Carolina.

Captain Craig Rivet has also struggled a great deal this season and has even had me saying that he should be stripped of the C. While that might have been an overreaction, I'll stand by that statement. Hopefully the two week break gives these two guys a nice rest because they definitely need to be playing better if the Sabres want to do anything in the postseason.

The break also comes at a great time for Myers, because it has appeared lately like he is hitting the rookie wall. Myers has played in all 60 games for Buffalo this season and leads the team in average ice time with 23:33 per game. The next closest person is almost a full three minutes less, as Chris Butler averages 20:55 per game.

I've already documented the goaltending situation ad nauseam, so I'll spare everyone my rants about Miller, the Olympics, and the backup goaltender situation this time. Just let it be known, I will definitely have a say by the trade deadline whether the Sabres make a move or not.

So there you have it. This will most likely be the last piece on the Sabres for quite a while since nothing new will be happening. Our focus will turn more towards the Olympics and more specifically Team USA. Once the Olympic roster freeze expires, expect quite a bit about the action (or lack thereof) by the Sabres.