Sometimes it seems as though there is a UFC show every other week, but the gap between this upcoming pay per view and the last seems like it's the longest we've seen in quite some time. The UFC returns to Montreal for UFC 97 this Saturday night when perhaps the best pound for pound fighter in MMA returns to the Octagon when Anderson Silva faces off with Thales Leites. Additionally, the other big fight on the card includes Chuck Liddell taking on Mauricio "Shogun" Rua in a battle of two men that were once considered the most dangerous strikers at light heavyweight.

While there aren't any other elite level names on the card, Cheick Kongo returns to action, along with several fighters from the last season of The Ultimate Fighter. Also back in the Octagon after a very long absence is David "The Crow" Loiseau. I'm going to focus on breaking down the two main fights, starting with Liddell vs. Rua.

Chuck "The Iceman" Liddell vs. Mauricio "Shogun" Rua - Light Heavyweight

Chuck Liddell sports a career record of 21-6 and is perhaps the most recognizeable face in all of MMA. Liddell is a former UFC Light Heavyweight Champ, who successfully defended his title on 4 straight occassions, a record which Anderson Silva will attempt to break on this same card. Things have not been so great for Liddell as of late though, losing 3 of his last 4 fights, though to be fair, the competition has been stiff. He lost his title to Quinton "Rampage" Jackson, was next defeated by top contender Keith Jardine, beat Wanderlei Silva in a highly publicized bout, then lost to now champion Rashad Evans. Liddell is now 39 years old and his carreer seems to be on a serious decline, but he's hoping to get some of his luster back in this fight.

Chuck is still regarded as one of the most dangerous knockout artists in the business and 14 of his 21 victories have come by way of KO/TKO. The list of who he has beaten is a who's who of the light heavyweight division including Randy Couture (2x), Tito Ortiz (2x), Renato Sobral (2x), Vitor Belfort, and of course Wanderlei as mentioned above. Liddell is definitely a striker first and foremost, but he also has a background in wrestling. He tends to use that background to keep fights standing rather than taking down opponents however. Liddell has no doubt lost some of his speed with age, and it seems to cost him his ability to stay out of the way of his opponent's strikes. He needs to be the first to land a true power shot or his chance at winning diminishes greatly.

Mauricio "Shogun" Rua was at one time thought to be perhaps the most versatile and feared fighter at 205 lbs. However, a series of injuries and very unimpressive performances since he came to the UFC have left most questioning his abilities. Rua was quite dominant during his time in the Pride organization in Japan and great things were expected once he moved to the US based Ultimate Fighting Championship. Rua has a career record of 17-3, losing only to Renato Sobral, Mark Coleman, and Forrest Griffin in his carreer, none of whom are slouches. Like Liddell, he's beaten an impressive list of fighters in his young career as well. Rampage Jackson, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, Kevin Randleman, and Mark Coleman in a recent rematch have all fallen at Shogun's hands.

Rua is significantly younger than Liddell at just 27, but injuries have definitely taken their toll. A dislocated elbow and a twice ruptured ACL likely have a lot to do with Rua's problems as of late, as do the different rules employed by the UFC as compared to Pride. Kicks and knees to the head of a downed opponent are not allowed within the UFC, and that was a method of victory utilized multiple times by Rua. The biggest criticism of Rua so far in his time in the UFC has been his cardio conditioning. In both of his fights he has clearly run of gas in the early going and looked nothing short of slow and lathargic late in the fight. Liddell is not particularly noted for his great conditioning, but if Rua has nothing left late in this fight, Liddell has the ability to pick him apart with his strikes.

Common Opponents

I always like to take a look at common opponents to try and guage how two fighters might do against one another, and Liddell and Rua have many in common. In fact, 4 men have fought both fighters during the course of their career. Renato Sobral, Quinton Jackson, Alistair Overeem, and Kevin Randleman appear on both men's fight cards, with mostly success for both parties. Overeem was beaten once by Liddell and twice by Rua, all coming via KO/TKO due to strikes. Randleman was knocked out by Liddell in 2001 and submitted to a Rua kneebar 5 years later. Liddell beat Sobral twice, both by way of strikes, while Rua's first career loss was at the hands of a guillotine by Sobral in just his 5th fight. Rua beat Rampage Jackson in the first round of Pride's 2005 Middleweight (205 lb.) Grand Prix on his way to winning the tournament. Rua dominated Jackson throughout the first 5 minutes of the fight before getting the TKO win with soccer kicks. On the other hand, Liddell's personal kryptonite comes in the form of Rampage. First losing to Jackson in the 2003 Pride Middleweight Grand Prix when his corner through in the towel in the 2nd round to stop a beating. The much anticipated rematch came in the UFC in 2007, when Rampage KO'd Liddell quickly to win the Light Heavyweight belt.

Looking simply at these common opponents, Rua would seem to have the advantage. He lost to Sobral, but it was so early in his career, it can almost be forgotten. On the other hand, he handled Jackson with ease while Liddell had no answer for Rampage on 2 separate occassions, 4 years apart. Of course, fighting each other is completely different than having fought the same opposition, so perhaps the fights against Jackson aren't so relevant. This is why they fight though right?

Prediction

This fight was originally scheduled to take place over a year ago, but injuries to both fighters put them on separate paths until this weekend. 2 or 3 years ago, this would have been one of the most important fights in MMA history, but due to the recent poor performances by both parties, this fight is now more about sticking around in the UFC limelight. Rua is the more versatile of the fighters, possessing a black belt in BJJ in addition to his obvious striking abilities, but his complete lack of conditioning in the past 2 fights is obviously cause for concern. He's got 12 years on Liddell, but you wouldn't know that by watching his UFC matches. Liddell is the heavier hitter of the two and likely can control where the fight goes with his wrestling ability, which likely means they'll stay on their feet.

As far as we know, Rua comes into this fight injury free and better have his cardio where it needs to be. If he doesn't, Liddell is going to pick him apart with punches and eventually land one that puts the lights out. Rua is aggressive by nature, while Liddell likes to hang back and counter strike whenever possible. Chuck's speed is a concern now though, so if he can't maintain quick defense, Rua can hit enough shots to put him down, and I don't like Liddell's chances on the ground. It's probably an upset, but I think Rua finally shows some flashes of what made him famous and takes the fight to Chuck. Liddell just isn't what he used to be and maybe this fight will finally get him to retire while he still has some of his dignity remaining. I'll take Rua via TKO in the 2nd round.

Anderson "The Spider" Silva vs. Thales Leites - UFC Middleweight Championship

To anybody that pays any attention to Mixed Martial Arts, Anderson Silva needs no introduction. He has established himself as perhaps the best pound for pound fighter on the planet and is attempting to defend his title for the 5th time, a feat which has never been done in UFC history. Silva has a career record of 23-4, with 9 consecutive victories, 8 of which are in the UFC. The native of Curitiba, Brazil's 4 losses are a bit misleading even. He lost his first professional fight via split decision back in 2000, and his next loss came by way of a triangle choke while in Pride in 2003. Ryo Chonan defeated Silva for a third time with perhaps the most insane submission in MMA history, as he caught him with a flying scissor heel hook at Pride Shockwave on New Year's eve of 2004 that has to be seen to be believed (video below). Finally his last loss came at the hands of the UFC's Yushin Okami due to a disqualification for a kick (which knocked Okami out) that was deemed illegal. Okami was on his knees at the time, while Silva was flat on his back, and Silva had dominated the fight up until that point.



Since debuting in the UFC, Silva has not lost and in fact, has dominated virtually every fight he's been in. He destroyed Rich Franklin to win the Middlweight Title and again in the subsequent rematch. He's also submitted Dan Henderson and jiu-jitsu specialist Travis Lutter along the way, showing his versatility. Simply put, Silva is the most devastating striker in the game right now, showing pin point accuracy as well as the power needed to knock out his opposition. Add to that his black belt in BJJ earned from the Nogueira brothers and you have a walking weapon on your hand. Silva has even begun to bounce back and forth between the 185 and 205 lb. weight classes due to a lack of competition.

Thales Leites debuted in the UFC in 2006 and after dropping his first fight, he has reeled off 5 straight wins. His overall record stands at 14-1, with the lone loss coming by way of a unanimous decision loss to Martin Kampann at The Ultimate Fighter 4 Finale. 8 of the 14 wins Leites has earned have come by way of submissions, which would be why he is known as a BJJ specialist. Leites hasn't fought much in the way of elite competition so far in his young career, but does hold victories over UFC regulars Pete Sell, Drew McFedries, and Nate Marquardt.

Common Opponents

Anderson Silva and Thales Leites do have one opponent in common, that being the aforementioned Nate Marquardt. Both fighters hold victories over the common opponent, but how they got those wins are extremely different. In his first title defense (the Lutter bout was non-title due to Lutter not making weight), Silva finished off Marquardt in the first round like he has so many others, earning the TKO win due to punches with just 10 seconds left in the round. Leites beat Nate via split decision, but only due to multiple penalties on Marquardt's side of things. Marquardt lost a point in both the 2nd and 3rd rounds due to illegal strikes and still had enough points to win on at least one judge's scorecard. Without the penalties, Marquardt surely would have won the match.

Prediction

Since this is a title fight, it's scheduled for 5 rounds. Even though Silva has been in plenty of championship bouts, he has never come close to going that deep into a fight. In fact, his last fight against Patrick Cote was the first time Silva had gone past the 2nd round in the UFC. Speaking of the Cote fight, Silva's behavior was odd at best in that match as he danced around endlessly, seemingly showboating rather than attempting to win. The fight was ended very early in the 3rd round as Cote had suffered an injury and was unable to continue. Silva apologized for his behavior afterwards and said he was trying to put on a show, but that wouldn't happen again in the future. Essentially I think he was bored with destroying everybody and wanted to try something new.

Leites is going to be overwhelmed in so many ways in this fight, it could get ugly very quickly. This will be the first time Leites has fought in the main event of a pay per view, his first title fight, and his first fight against an opponent with any real name value at all. Leites is a competent striker but is not even close to the level that Silva possesses, so his only real prayer is to take this one to the ground. Even there, it's not safe as Silva has demonstrated his BJJ abilities in the past and he's at least as good, if not better than Leites in that area as well. I really don't think this fight ever makes it that far though as Silva is just going to pick the kid apart with his strikes like everybody else. Look for some huge knees and a few punches to crumple Leites in the first and Silva will finish him with a TKO win.

The last time the UFC went to Montreal, the crowd as absolutely amazing and it was one of the loudest fight cards I've ever seen. Of course, hometown hero Georges St. Pierre was in the main even that night and that probably had something to do with it, but I expect another hot crowd this Saturday. UFC 97 is only available on Pay Per View and begins at 10pm EST on Saturday, 4/18.

Full Fight Card:
Main Card Bouts:
Anderson Silva (23-4) vs. Thales Leites (14-1)
Mauricio "Shogun" Rua (17-3) vs. Chuck Liddell (21-6)
Luiz Cane (9-1) vs. Steve Cantwell (7-1)
Cheick Kongo (13-4-1) vs. Antoni Hardonk (8-4)
Brian Stann (6-1) vs. Krzysztof Soszynski (16-8-1)

Preliminary Bouts:
Nathan Quarry (10-3) vs. Jason MacDonald (21-11)
Denis Kang (31-11-1) vs. Xavier Fouka-Pokum (20-9)
David Loiseau (18-8) vs. Ed Herman (16-7)
T.J. Grant (13-2) vs. Ryo Chonan (15-9)
Mark Bocek (6-2) vs. David Bielkheden (13-6)
Matt Wiman (11-5) vs. Sam Stout (13-5-1)
Eliot Marshall (7-3) vs. Vinny Magalhaes (6-4)