NHL Playoff Predictions - Round Two

--Written By: Devin Dombrowski --

One round down, three more to go. For the teams involved, four wins down and twelve more to glory. Before getting to my picks for round two, I’d like to discuss the first round for a little bit.

1. Welcome to the playoffs Columbus. You have a stud rookie goalie who could possibly win both the Calder Trophy and the Vezina Trophy, but none of that mattered once the second season started. The only thing I could think of when pondering the first post-season appearance in Columbus franchise history was how much it resembled Elaine dancing on “Seinfeld”. It was a nice effort but to everyone else watching, an epic disaster. Hopefully they have more playoff appearances in the future, and hopefully they actually win a game or two next time.

2. Happy 100th season Montreal! This season could potentially be classified as a natural disaster up in Montreal. I mean, I know they limped into the playoffs and definitely weren’t deserving of any playoff glory, but I thought they would at least put up a fight against Boston. This is one of their most hated rivals. Just one year ago the top seeded Canadiens were given all they could handle by the 8th seeded Bruins, couldn’t the Habs have at least returned the favor and looked like they cared? I think the only thing worse than missing the playoffs is getting swept in the first round. Embarrassing.

3. Want to win in the playoffs? Here is your key: goaltending. It’s the reason teams like Philly, Montreal, San Jose and St Louis are going home early. Nothing against their respective goaltenders, but goaltenders are the players that absolutely have to turn it up a notch once the playoffs start. It’s the reason a little seventh seeded team like the Rangers can put up such a fight against Washington (and I covered this very exact scenario in my first round picks). Despite losing in the first round and somewhat struggling, if the match-up stays Lundqvist vs. Theodore, the Rangers are moving on and not the Caps. It’s the reason why Buffalo would’ve at least put up a fight against Boston and it’s definitely the reason why the Pens went to the Finals last season (and have a great shot again this year).

4. Can we PLEASE stop with this trend of having the home crowd dress the same? PLEASE?? I’m not going to pick on crowds in Washington and Pittsburgh (the two cities where I first noticed the trend this year) because Buffalo has been guilty of this in the past as well. I’m going to pick on all crowds guilty of this trend, regardless of what city it is in. This goes for the NBA too. Nothing screams “Amateur Hour” more than this trend. Why can’t the fans just wear shirts, jerseys and related team merchandise while rooting on their team like a bunch of rabid jackals? Why do we have to hand out matching shirts and to create this illusion on television? It’s embarrassing. It started with the real fans getting priced out by corporate greed, and now we’re giving those wagon hoppers identical shirts to give this idea to the home viewer that the crowd is “crazy” and “die-hard”. I can see this for a fan base like the Carolina Hurricanes since they could easily change their team name to the Carolina Bandwagons, but please… the real fans aren’t falling for this. STOP IT ALREADY! (Ok, I’m done ranting).

5. San Jose…whoa there buddy. I mentioned in my first round picks that we’ve seen this before but that this year will be different. I guess you can count me in with the rest of the idiots who thought this year was going to be different. Once a choke artist, always a choke artist. For as bad as I’ve seen fans of other teams react (ahem Buffalo), I can only imagine what San Jose fans must be feeling right now.

6. Finally, here are the standings through the first round in our pick contest. Each person received five points for picking the series winner and an extra five points if they picked the number of games correctly.

Chuck: 35 Points (Boston, Pittsburgh in 6, Detroit in 4, Carolina, Washington)
Scott: 30 Points (Boston, Pittsburgh in 6, Detroit, Washington in 7)
Devin: 25 Points (Boston, Detroit, Vancouver, Chicago, Washington)
Brian: 20 Points (Boston in 4, Detroit, Carolina)

And now on to the picks for round two:

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Detroit Red Wings (2) vs Anaheim Ducks (8)

Luckily I’m not a fan of Detroit because this series would scare the crap out of me if I were. Remember the 2002-03 season when Anaheim came out of nowhere to take the Western Conference crown before losing to New Jersey in seven games? Few things to note:

1. Mike Babcock was the coach of that Ducks team and he is now… the coach of the Red Wings.
2. The Ducks were a 7 seed that year and swept Detroit in the first round.

This year’s Ducks remind me exactly like that team. Maybe it’s because nobody expected them to make it past the first round, maybe it’s because they are being led by a relatively unknown goaltender, I haven’t decided just yet. One thing for sure, Detroit better bring their best game or they’ll be joining San Jose on the golf course soon.

I thought Detroit would struggle a bit more with Columbus than they did. If Detroit has one glaring weakness, it’s goaltending. Combine that with the fact that Columbus was led by rookie sensation Steve Mason, I figured Columbus could steal a game or two. Granted the Jackets almost took game four as Osgood returned to form, the Wings still found a way to score more. I don’t think Detroit will be as lucky in the second round. One could argue that Mason suffered through some playoff jitters, but Jonas Hiller definitely won’t be. He already shut down the President’s Trophy winners, so I doubt he’ll care that Detroit racked up 295 goals during the regular season (3.6 goals a game).

I still can’t bring myself to pick Anaheim though. For weeks leading up to the playoffs, Detroit was my pick to repeat as the Stanley Cup Champs and I can’t change that on the fly just because of one gigantic upset. Detroit has been through the playoff grind plenty of times so they will be ready to play and not rattled by huge expectations. San Jose on the other hand…they seem rattled in every game that isn’t on the regular season schedule.

My Pick: Detroit in 6

Vancouver Canucks (3) vs Chicago Blackhawks (4)

This series has the makings of being a classic seven game slugfest. At first glance, I’d give the advantage to Vancouver because they have been the hotter team down the stretch, they have great goaltending and they dusted off the St Louis Blues like they were a minor league team. However, the Blackhawks will be much tougher competition. Not only are they are better overall team than St Louis, they have a Stanley Cup champion between the pipes. Never underestimate that experience when games are being played in May and June.

My pick in the Vancouver/St Louis series was almost dead on. In fact, my pick for the ‘Hawks was equally as close. In both series, I missed the prediction by one single game and I was the only person out of our pick group to even pick the winner for both series. If I lose this prediction contest, you can point to those two series where I left 10 points on the table.

It’s important when picking games to not over think a match-up. So for that reason alone, I’m going with the Canucks. Like I said in the first paragraph, my gut says Vancouver. Rather than sitting here and analyzing stats, I’m going with my first impression and hoping it pays off.

My Pick: Vancouver in 7

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Boston Bruins (1) vs Carolina Hurricanes (6)

Boston has had a very long layoff after dusting away Montreal which could affect them in the first game, but I don’t see it being a very big problem afterwards. With San Jose out of the way, Boston is the highest seeded team remaining which means they will have home-ice throughout the remainder of the playoffs.

The fact that Carolina is in the second round both surprises me and enrages me. If there has ever been a luckier team in the NHL, I’ve yet to see it. Twice in the series they pulled a game out when it was just about over. To give credit where credit is due, I applaud the effort of the team to not give up and to pull it out. But to think that Carolina will keep getting these lucky bounces against a far superior team, well that is just borderline crazy.

It should be interesting to see if the Hurricanes “fans” can actually sell these games out. I’m 100% positive if I were in the area I could easily get tickets on game day. I still haven’t figured out why the organization hasn’t just given up with this charade of saying what great fans they have and start covering seats up like they do in Jacksonville. Nobody is falling for it.

I’m picking Boston to win this series for a few reasons:

1. Boston is the better team
2. Boston defense > Carolina Defense
3. Tim Thomas > Cam Ward
4. I hate Carolina

My Pick: Boston in 6

Washington Capitals (2) vs Pittsburgh Penguins (4)

Oh boy. I’m sure when Gary Bettman saw this match-up he wet himself. This is the absolute dream match-up that the NHL has been wishing for since Crosby, Malkin and Ovechkin came into the league. This is so big that ESPN might even start Sportscenter with hockey highlights for the first time in the network’s history.

I’ve said it a million times so what does one more time hurt… goaltending wins above all in the playoffs. Marc-Andre Fleury absolutely saved Pittsburgh in the first round. If it weren’t for him, they might not have advanced. Then again, the Flyers were trotting Martin Biron out so who knows. I talked in my first round predictions about how Jose Theodore could be the downfall for Washington and it took only one game for that to come true. Now Washington has Simeon Varlamov in net and he has looked very solid so far. I only had the pleasure of watching him once in the regular season and I wasn’t very impressed. Regardless, he came into a pressure packed situation and helped Washington get rid of the annoying Rangers. (Has there ever been a better scene than a dejected Sean Avery sitting on the bench with his head down at the end of Game 7?)

Despite what all the media will tell you, this series is going to come down to more than just Crosby, Malkin and Ovechkin. So please, don’t fall for the media hype. It’s going to be a great series between two very good teams. I wouldn’t be shocked if the winner of this series advanced to the Finals, along with the winner of the Detroit/Anaheim series. I have to admit, Fleury knows when to turn it on and I don’t see this series being any different.

(Side Note: Remember my article a few months ago about how Ovechkin should be the face of the league and not Crosby? The very same that was chastised because the NHL wouldn't want a cocky Russian being the face of the league (as opposed to a whiny crybaby who jumps people with the same testicular fortitude of a 14 year old girl). Well look who is being nominated for the Hart Trophy this year? Crosby? Nope. It's not a coincedence. Crosby isn't even the best player on his own team, let alone the entire league. Can we finally lay this discussion down to rest? Thanks.)

When a series is very close, there has to be a few defining factors that pushes the winning team over the edge. Since I’ve been watching the NHL playoffs, these factors have been A) Goaltending B) Playoff Experience C) Luck D) Injuries. Here is how I see this series breaking down according to those factors.

Goaltending: Pittsburgh > Washington
Playoff Experience: Pittsburgh > Washington
Luck: Pittsburgh > Washington
Injuries: Pittsburgh = Washington

My Pick: Pittsburgh in 7

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--Written By: Scott Lunn –-


EASTERN CONFERENCE


#1 Boston Bruins vs. #6 Carolina Hurricanes


Boston tore through Montreal like a team on an absolute mission and earned themselves a little break between rounds. I'm not always sure that's a good thing however as it can certainly kill off any momentum a team has, and in this case, Carolina will bring a good deal in after taking out New Jersey in the final minute of a Game 7. If you ignore that aspect and simply look at ability alone, Boston is certainly the superior team. Personally, I think Carolina's luck is due to run out at this point. They scraped by against New Jersey, at one point blowing a 3 goal lead and getting a lucky bounce off a skate that ended up in the net with .2 seconds left on the clock to win one game. If the Devils win that game in OT instead, the series is as good as over. Then they win Game 7 by scraping together two goals in the last 1:20, a simply epic meltdown by the Devils. Boston is a much more physical team and will wear the Hurricanes out in this series. The only chance for Carolina is if Cam Ward catches absolute fire and can't be beat. But hey, at least those "Caniacs" get a few more chances to actually sell out a playoff game...


Boston in 5


#2 Washington Capitals vs. #4 Pittsburgh Penguins


The Capitals came out sluggish against the Rangers in their first round series and looked destined for an early exit, that is until their big guns came alive and lead them to win the last 3 games of the series. Ovechkin and Semin have started putting the puck in the net, and that's a scary trend for any opponent. In the NHL's wet dream, Pittsburgh dispatched of Philly with relative ease and set up the Ovechkin vs. Crosby/Malkin series that was made for VS. The Penguins didn't really have much trouble with Philly, though the series did go 6 games. Marc Andre Fleury was kind of up and down in this series though, and that has to concern Penguins fans. On the other hand, Malkin and Crosby combined for 17 points in those 6 games, which has to be reassuring. At any rate, the firepower is going to be unleashed between these two teams and it's going to come down to who can steal a game at the goalie position. Simeon Varlamov stepped in after Game 1 for the Caps and played fantastically, allowing only 1.17 goals against on average and showing almost no signs of pressure as a rookie in his first playoff action. I think he gets tested a little more in this series though. I expect a high scoring series and I expect to be absolutely sick and tired of hearing about 3 certain guys from the announce crews in short order.


Pittsburgh in 6


WESTERN CONFERENCE


#2 Detroit Red Wings vs. #8 Anaheim Ducks


Detroit scored 18 goals in just 4 games while dispatching of Columbus with relative ease and making goalie Chris Mason look like the rookie he is, despite a magnificent season. Meanwhile, they only gave up 7 goals in the series, 5 of which came in Game 4. The Red Wings power play is an absolutely scary thing to deal with and Anaheim better plan on not taking many penalties if they want to survive this series. The possible weak link in the armor for Detroit is Chris Osgood, who again, looked good until Game 4, but he doesn't appear to be 100% healthy and missed some fairly routine plays in that last game. Perhaps the time off between series will have helped him however. Anaheim is a team nobody really wants to face right now either. The Ducks took out the top seeded Sharks (who are making playoff choke jobs an art form these days) in 6 games. Goalie Jonas Hiller (who???) looked fantastic throughout and has a 1.65 GAA so far to show for it. As Devin pointed out the other day, and I had the very same thought myself, this Ducks team looks very much like the one that came out of nowhere to win the Cup behind the play of goaltender J.S. Giguere 2 years ago. Hiller is hot as can be and the Ducks are coming into this series with a lot of momentum on their side. I look for Detroit to stumble early because of this and their lengthy layoff and have to play catchup against the Ducks. Ultimately, I think the Red Wings simply have too much fire power to be beaten at this stage however, but the Ducks are going to put up a fight.


Detroit in 6


#3 Vancouver Canucks vs. #4 Chicago Blackhawks


My clear upset pick of St. Louis to win in the first round was obviously a foolish one, and I should be kicked for picking against Roberto Luongo. The Canucks had no real trouble at all in getting rid of the Blues in just 4 games. Luongo only allowed 5 goals in the 4 games and currently leads all net minders with a 1.16 GAA in the playoffs. The Sedin twins lead the way for Vancouver's offense, combining for 9 points in the series, though it's certainly not the offense you have to worry about when playing Vancouver. Chicago won it's first playoff series since 1996 by out battling the Calgary Flames in 6 games. This series was a very hard fought one and I was blown away by some of the physical play I saw. There is no doubt that the West is a much more physical conference. Everybody finishes their checks and it's amazing that some people walked away after the hits I saw. The Blackhawks are full of youth and energy and that ultimately seemed to propel them to the 2nd round. Khabibulin didn't look overly impressive in the net, but Chicago found plenty of offense to make up for it. 6 different players had 6 or more points in the series, lead by Kris Versteeg with 7. Patrick Sharp, Martin Havlat, and Cam Barker each chipped in with 3 goals and 3 assists apiece. So ultimatley this series would appear to be offense vs. defense, and I'm going to give the nod to great goaltending almost every time. I learned my lesson from the first round, and in Luongo I now trust!


Vancouver in 6

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