My Take on the Buffalo Bills and the 2010 Draft

What better time that Draft Day for me to finally get back to writing? If nothing else, maybe it'll get my mind of the Sabres and the misery they have decided to cause me in these playoffs. So the NFL has expanded the draft to 3 days this year and the first round will be getting the full prime time treatment this evening. This is interesting on a couple levels, but mostly in that it will force teams to sit back and think about what happened in the 1st round over night before getting back to it on Friday evening. This could result in some more wheeling and dealing than usual in my opinion. Rather than try to dissect the entire draft however, I just want to focus on the Bills and some of the options laid out before them.

As is always the case, everybody has their own opinion on what would be the best bet come draft time, and this is simply a forum for me to discuss some of the possibilities that I've heard mentioned so far. While discussing these options, I will of course give my two cents on how each could play out for Buffalo. With that being said, let's start with the name I've heard the most thus far in relation to the Bills.

Jimmy Clausen seems to be a bit of a polarizing figure to most, though that's often the case with any quarterback come draft time. Fans either think he could be the next savior or just another in a long series of busts. Clausen magnifies this idea a bit in part because he went to Notre Dame, which is a love 'em or hate 'em school for most folks. Additionally, he has a bit of a pretty boy image and displays a certain cockiness about himself. There seems to be a large contingency of people that believe this will be Buffalo's pick should he still be on the board when the Bills hit the clock with the 9th pick. Personally, I think somebody in front of Buffalo will snag him. The 4 teams directly in front of Buffalo all have a need for quarterback, it's just a matter of whether they are willing to use such a high pick on one. I'd expect Seattle to pass in favor of some other needs, and the same with Kansas City, despite Charlie Weiss campaigning for Clausen. That leaves Cleveland and Oakland as possible destinations. I once said that "Cleveland would need balls of steel to take a Notre Dame QB in the first round again" after Brady Quinn was mostly a flop. Well, that was also before they dealt away Quinn and Anderson, leaving them with recently acquired Jake Delhomme as the likely starter. It's clear Cleveland still needs a quarterback, but again, I see them taking care of other needs first, because they certainly have plenty of them. As for Oakland, we all know Al Davis is as crazy as they come, and has a history of taking puzzling picks, but I think Clausen will not make it past this spot. JaMarcus Russell's time seems to be done finally after consistently miserable performances, and while there are four other quarterbacks on the roster, their names happen to be Bruce Gradkowski, Kyle Boller, J.P. Losman, and Charlie Frye. That's a big pile of fail if you ask me.

Personally, I'd be happy with this scenario. I do believe Clausen has the physical ability to become a solid QB in the NFL, but I also think it depends a great deal on where he ends up. If he were to come to Buffalo, I think it would be an absolute disaster. He's going to crave attention and a national spotlight, and that's something Buffalo won't offer. Jim Kelly had a similar cockiness and attitude about him in the mid 80s, and he certainly made it work in Buffalo, but these are different times. I just can't see most Bills fans embracing Clausen and his prima donna image. He'd be expected to produce right away, and with the team the Bills have to surround him with, that's going to be nearly impossible. Clausen would be J.P. Losman all over again if he came to the Bills. He'd be given the chance to run with the team, make a few fantastic plays here and there, just enough so people say "well, maybe...", but then the mistakes would mount up and I think Clausen would crack in a hurry. If he gets in the right situation, he could flourish, but Buffalo is just not that place anyway you look at it.

While we are discussing quarterbacks, it would be a tragedy if I didn't discuss Tim Tebow. Now, I've gone on record time and time again saying that I don't believe Tebow will ever become a top tier quarterback in the NFL. Based on what I've seen in terms of his mechanics, his inability to properly read through progressions, and his quick reliance on taking to his feet to try and save a play, I just don't see it ever working out for him at that position. With all that being said, you can't help but love the guy's never say die attitude. He absolutely is willing to do what it takes to improve himself and he seems to be the type that will outwork everybody around him. Desire and effort can make up for a lot of things, but I just don't know if it can overcome all the obstacles I see facing him as a QB in the NFL. Word on the streets has it that the Bills are absolutely enamored with Tebow and could very well be positioning themselves to take him. I will say that I'm more ok with this right now than I was a few weeks ago, but I still think it would be a mistake. If they take Tebow at #9, I will have lost the remaining shred of faith I have in the team as an organization, but even I don't think the front office is quite that dumb.

If they were to take him in the 2nd round at #41, I could probably deal with it. See, unlike Clausen, I think Tebow's long term success will not depend nearly as much on the location in which he ends up. As I just mentioned, he is going to work his butt off and do everything he can to improve himself, and that is something Buffalo fans can certainly get behind with their blue collar mentality. Wherever he ends up, he's going to be a project at best. He will need a few years to learn an NFL system and to continue to work on improving his mechanics, and time is something Buffalo has in spades at this point. The Bills clearly aren't built to contend at this point and they could develop Tebow over the next few years. The problem with this yet again is he would need to be surrounded by more talent than this team currently has on the offensive side of the ball. Hopefully this could be improved over the next couple of seasons with the new regime in place. I know that requires putting a lot of faith in an organization that has been bound and determined to prove they don't deserve any for the last decade plus, but we'll try and stay a little optimistic here.

The thing with Tim Tebow is that somebody is going to be willing to take a chance on him and draft him in a spot higher than where his ability dictates he should go. Again, with the teams right in front of us in Round 2 needing quarterbacks, it seems likely he'd come off the board here somewhere. So if the Bills really want him, I think they would need to trade up into either the bottom of Round 1 or the very front of Round 2. Both of these ideas make it not worth drafting him to me. We have too many issues to address to be giving up extra picks to take a chance on a guy. So in conclusion, if he's there at 41, and the Bills are truly that set on taking him, I can deal... but otherwise, let him go.

There is one other quarterback that seems to be slipping most people's mind and has garnered no discussion in relation to Buffalo that I've heard. Colt McCoy managed to lead Texas to a 45-8 record in his 4 seasons at the helm. That stands right up there with what Tebow accomplished at Florida and is certainly an impressive number. I personally believe that McCoy's abilities more readily transfer to the NFL as well, and would be much more in favor of Buffalo taking him at #41. Not to say McCoy doesn't need to work on his game as well, because like any quarterback coming into the league, he's not going to be ready instantly. I do see McCoy being much more like Tebow than Clausen however in terms of having a chance to succeed regardless of location. He strikes me as having a strong work ethic as well and being willing to take a year or two to learn and grow into the NFL lifestyle, where as Clausen seems like he will be more challenging to coach. Subtracting Sam Bradford from the equation since he will pretty clearly be gone right away, I think that McCoy has the best chance of being a success in Buffalo of the 3 top quarterbacks being discussed.

Assuming the Bills do take either Tim Tebow or Colt McCoy at #41 (and of course it's all assumption at this point because trying to predict a draft is pretty near impossible), that leaves the question of who they will take with the 9th pick. My answer to that is the same as it has been for years with the Bills. Address the lines! Both the offensive and defensive lines still need a great deal of help and it seems as though the Bills conveniently ignore this time and time again. I will give them credit for last year's draft and taking Andy Levitre and Eric Wood, as both seem to be on the right path to being quality players. There is still work to be done however, and as long as that is the case, I don't care who is at quarterback for Buffalo, they're going to have a hard time succeeding. Tackle is a pressing need and it seems as though there should be a quality one on the board when the Bills go to make their first pick. Most figure Russell Okung of Oklahoma St. and Trent Williams from Oklahoma will be gone at that point, but Iowa's Bryan Bulaga is worth of a #9 pick in most everybody's book. Shoring up the offensive line would go a long way towards allowing the offense to have any sort of success in the future.

On the flip side, the defensive line needs help as well, especially as the Bills transition to a 3-4 defense this season. Nobody on the roster currently seems capable of manning the nose tackle position in this style of defense. My absolute dream draft would see the Bills nabbing either Ndamukong Suh or Gerald McCoy, as both seem like sure fire, can't miss picks that would bring immediate production to the field. Unfortunately, they're both likely to be long gone before Buffalo gets a chance to make a selection. The next best consensus DT is Dan Williams from Tennessee. He has the size and potential ability, though most mocks seem to have him lasting a bit longer and going somewhere in the teens. It might be a bit of a stretch for Buffalo to take him at 9, but at least it would be addressing a top need.

The last remaining name I've heard in connection with Buffalo a great deal is Clemson running back CJ Spiller. Spiller is an explosive talent without a doubt, and will likely benefit any team that selects him as a spot duty back as well as a kick returner. I like Spiller's big play ability, especially since it's something the Bills have generally been lacking for a long time. I don't like him as the #9 pick for Buffalo though. In the long list of pressing needs for the team, running back is not chief among them. I realize most seem to believe that the Bills intend on moving troubled RB Marshawn Lynch, and many are quite in favor of the idea. I'm not wholly opposed to it myself after he disappointed in multiple ways last season, but he does still have some talent and keeping him around would allow us to focus on greater needs. In fact, it troubles me greatly that after Lee Evans, the next wide receiver on our current depth chart is a guy that has 10 receptions in 16 games over 2 seasons. James Hardy may yet prove himself to be a value in Buffalo, but he's an unknown entity at this point. If the Bills were insistent on ignoring the biggest needs and going with a skill position player at #9, I'd rather they take a chance on Dez Bryant than CJ Spiller.

The draft is really a crap shoot in so many ways, both in terms of trying to predict it and in terms of the success of the players selected. It's always an intriguing time of year and every person has their preferences in terms of what their favorite team should do. While I've outlined my preferences here, the truth of the matter is that it would be fairly hard for the Bills to screw up this draft too badly. With so many needs, you'd hope they would at least managed to address a few of them. Here's to hoping a new regime can start to right the ship beginning this evening!

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