2009 NFL Preview: AFC South

Houston Texans

Key Additions: Rex Grossman (QB), Dan Orlovsky (QB), Cato June (LB), Antonio Smith (DE), Buster Davis (LB), Shaun Cody (DT), Deltha O'Neal (CB), Adrian Jones (G), Khary Campbell (LB)

Key Losses: Sage Rosenfels (QB), Ahman Green (RB), Ron Dayne (RB), Ephraim Salaam (OT), Morlon Greenwood (LB), Anthony Weaver (DE), Will Demps (S), Mark Bruener (TE), Cecil Sapp (FB),

Draft Picks: Brian Cushing (LB-USC), Connor Barwin (DE-Cincinnati), Antoine Caldwell (C-Alabama), Glover Quin (CB-New Mexico), Anthony Hill (TE-NC State), James Casey (TE-Rice), Brice McCain (CB-Utah), Troy Nolan (S-Arizona St.)

The Houston Texans finished up 8-8 in 2008, much the same as the previous year. That may not seem like an impressive record, but considering they play in the AFC South with some very talented teams, it's not so bad. This team has been steadily building and improving over the past few seasons, and if they played in different division, like the AFC or NFC West, they'd probably be contenders to make the playoffs at this point. That is not the case however, so while the Texans get better, the playoffs still seem like a pretty far off destination.

Last year's team can best be described as streaky. They started off 0-4 last year, then won 3 in a row, lost 3 in a row, and won 4 in a row before splitting the final 2 games of the season. They went 3-3 within the AFC South, but lost both games to Indianapolis. They did however keep both games very close and were leading for much of the first meeting, until Sage Rosenfels (playing for an ill Matt Schaub) choked away the game with an epic fumble that was returned for a TD.

Schaub had a pretty solid season in '08, but missed 5 games due to illness/injury. The Texans will need him healthy for the entire season if they hope to make any noise, as new backups included Rex Grossman and Dan Orlovsky, neither of which screams out winner to me. He has one of the best targets to throw to in all of football, and it amazes me that Andre Johnson is just now finally start to come into more national attention. His numbers last year were extremely impressive at 115 receptions, 1,575 yards, and 8 TDs. TE Owen Daniels has also become an increasingly popular target as he pulled in 70 receptions last year.

Steve Slaton had a terrific rookie campaign as well, taking over the starting RB job in his first year. He carried the ball for 1,282 yards and 9 TDs, and also grabbed 50 receptions in addition. Slaton's durability worries me a bit as he's not the biggest guy, but if he stays under 300 carries again this year, it should work well for him. Houston moved the ball well last year, producing the 3rd most yards in the NFL offensively, but were only middle of the pack in terms of scoring.

Conversely, on defense, they seemed to struggle a bit and were in the lower third of both yards and points surrendered. The addition of veterans like LB Cato June and CB Deltha O'Neal should help bolster a young defense. 2006 #1 overall pick, DE Mario Williams has finally started to develop into a high level player for the Texans and managed to accumulate 12 sacks last season after having 14 the year before.

If the Texans defense can tighten up just a bit more this year and the triumvirate of Schaub, Johnson, and Slaton stay healthy, Houston should continue to build on its success. Indy and Tennessee might finally be starting to slip backwards just a bit, which could potentially lead to Houston battling for a wild card spot. They start off with a pretty easy schedule, with only Tennessee and maybe Arizona as top level teams in the first 8 weeks of the season, so look for them to get out to a good start.

Last Season: 8-8

2009 Prediction: 9-7


Indianapolis Colts

Key Additions: None

Key Losses: Dominic Rhodes (RB), Marvin Harrison (WR), Keiwan Ratliff (CB), Hunter Smith (P), Kenton Keith (RB), Corey Hilliard (OT), Darrell Reid (DT)

Draft Picks: Donald Brown (RB-UConn), Fili Moala (DT-USC), Jerraud Powers (CB-Auburn), Austin Collie (WR-BYU), Terrance Taylor (DT-Michigan), Curtis Painter (QB-Purdue), Pat McAfee (P-West Virginia), Jamie Thomas (OL-Maryland)

The Colts finished the 2008 season with at least 12 wins for the 6th straight year, becoming the only team to ever accomplish that feat. The 12 wins didn't get them very far however as San Diego shocked them and knocked them out of the playoffs in the first round with an overtime victory. Heading into the 2009 season, a few familiar faces will be missing from the Indy sidelines, as Head Coach Tony Dungy has retired and WR Marvin Harrison is currently unemployed.

The Colts are getting older and maybe on the start of a downward slide after so many years at the top. Peyton Manning put up fantastic numbers yet again last season, passing for 4,002 yards and 27 TDs, but each year he seems just a touch less dominant than the one before lately. Make no mistake, he's still one of the Top 3 QBs in this league, but the options around him on the offense are starting to fade as well. Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes split the running duties last season and neither of them eclipsed 550 yards. Addai missed 4 games and will look to improve upon those numbers this year, as he has new competition in the form of rookie Donald Brown, who was an absolute work horse at Connecticut a year ago.

As far as receivers go, Reggie Wayne is clearly the number one guy now, but that also means he's going to be doubled a lot more since Marvin Harrison is now gone. Anthony Gonzalez and TE Dallas Clark make for great secondary options, but unless rookie WR Austin Collie can step up his game quickly, the Colts options to spread the ball around through the air have decreased just a bit. If the Colts can establish a more dominant ground game then they've had in quite some time, they'll probably be much better off this year.

While the Colts' offense actually was only middle of the pack statistically last year, their defense actually was near the top of the league. Only 6 teams gave up fewer points than Indy last year. Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney were disruptive bookends last year along the line, amassing 11.5 and 10.5 sacks respectively. Gary Brackett and Clint Session are solid linebackers in the 4-3 defense and FS Antoine Bethea was amongst the team leader in tackles. Former Defensive Player of the Year SS Bob Sanders missed much of last year due to injury and is still struggling with knee issues heading into this year, though reports indicate he is on track to make it back this season.

Indy is still a top team in the AFC, but they have begun to move backwards towards the rest of the competition, and dealing with a tough Tennessee and Houston team twice a year doesn't help them much. I expect to see them in the postseason again this year, barring catastrophic injury to Peyton Manning, but their window for a second Super Bowl is quickly coming to a close.

Last Season: 12-4

2009 Prediction: 10-6


Jacksonville Jaguars

Key Additions: Torry Holt (WR), Tra Thomas (OT), Marlon McCree (S), Adam Seward (LB), Sean Considine (S), Montavious Stanley (DT)

Key Losses: Fred Taylor (RB), Cleo Lemon (QB), Matt Jones (WR), Dennis Northcutt (WR), Reggie Williams (WR), Jerry Porter (WR), Drayton Florence (CB), Pierson Prioleau (S), Mike Peterson (LB), Khalif Barnes (OT), Tutan Reyes (G), Paul Spicer (DE), Chris Naeole (G), George Wrightster (TE)

Draft Picks: Eugene Monroe (OT-Virginia), Eben Britton (OT-Arizona), Terrance Knighton (DT-Temple), Derek Cox (CB-William & Mary), Mike Thomas (WR-Arizona), Jarret Dillard (WR-Rice), Zach Miller (TE-Nebraska Omaha), Rashad Jennings (RB-Liberty), Tiquan Underwood (WR-Rutgers)

What a difference a year can make in the NFL. Jacksonville went 5-12 in 2008, just a year after an 11-5 campaign that saw them advance to the AFC Divisional Round of the playoffs. Almost anything that could go wrong for the Jaguars did go wrong last year.

It started just before the season when OT Richard Collier was shot 14 times and left a paraplegic. A slew of injuries to the offensive line later, and the season was over almost before it started. David Garrard was sacked 42 times on the season and while previously known for rarely ever throwing interceptions, tossed 13 of them on the year. He also only managed 15 TD passes. Though, to be fair, he had nobody to throw the ball to either. The leading receiver for the Jaguars was Matt Jones who may or may not have been coked out of his mind at the time. He pulled in 65 catches, and no other WR had more than 44. Big free agent signing Jerry Porter didn't play in 6 games and only managed 11 catches in the 10 games he did play in.

The Jaguars at least realize where their problems lay and attempted to address them in the off season. Free agent signings included WR Torry Holt from the Rams and OT Tra Thomas from the Eagles. Jacksonville's draft also focused heavily on those positions, taking two of the top tackles with their first two picks and also adding 3 receivers on Day 2. Obviously only time will tell if these moves paid off or not, but there really wasn't anywhere to go but up.

The lone bright spot on the offense has to be RB Maurice Jones-Drew. Even he struggled along the rest of the team, but did manage a combined 1,389 yards and 14 TDs rushing and receiving. With Fred Taylor moving on to New England, MJD is officially the man in Jacksonville. There is of course, still the other side of the ball to worry about too.

Defensively, the Jaguars weren't horrid last year, but they weren't too good either. They gave up right around 23 points a game, which puts them in the bottom third of the league. The issue heading into 2009 is that they lost some of their leaders on the defense too. Leading tackler Mike Peterson is now an Atlanta Falcon, DE Paul Spicer and S Pierson Prioleau have joined the Saints, and CB Drayton Florence now resides in Buffalo. Jacksonville is going to have a rough time stopping teams this year as they don't get much pressure on the quarterback and they're going to really have to rely on young players stepping up both on the defensive line and at the linebacker position.

I can't see things getting too much worse than last year in Jacksonville, but they need to find a way to turn things around. They already have one of the worst fan bases in terms of attendance as it is and they could find themselves seriously in danger of losing their franchise in the near future. I know the numbers reported say they have nearly capacity attendance for their home games, but I'm not buying it. I was there in Week 2 last year and on top of them tarping off several sections of the stadium, there were a lot of empty seats as well.

Last Season: 5-11

2009 Prediction: 5-11


Tennessee Titans

Key Additions: Patrick Ramsey (QB), Nate Washington (WR), Rocky Boiman (LB), Jovan Haye (DT), DeMarcus Faggins (CB)

Key Losses: Chris Simms (QB), Albert Haynseworth (DT), Justin McCareins (WR), Roydell Williams (WR), Brandon Jones (WR), Eric King (CB), Reynaldo Hill (CB)

Draft Picks: Kenny Britt (WR-Rutgers), Sen'Derrick Marks (DT-Auburn), Jared Cook (TE-South Carolina), Ryan Mouton (CB-Hawaii), Gerald McGrath (LB-Southern Miss.), Troy Kropog (T-Tulane), Javon Ringer (RB-Michigan St.), Jason McCourty (CB-Rutgers), Dominique Edison (WR-Stephen F. Austin), Ryan Durand (G-Syracuse), Nick Schommer (S-North Dakota St.)

Count me amongst those that think the Titans were highly over-achieving when they finished 13-3 last season. Tennessee started off 10-0 and ended up winning the AFC South, but were defeated in their first playoff game by the Baltimore Ravens. They return with much of the same roster this year in an attempt to recreate their regular season success.

Vince Young went down in game 1 last year and Kerry Collins took over the QB spot for the rest of the season, playing solidly, but not spectacularly. The grey bearded Collins heads into 2009 as the starter despite the fact that he's 35. He threw for just 2,676 yards and 12 TDs a year ago, but it didn't matter as the Titans relied heavily on their ground game to get the job done.

Expect more of the same this year, as Collins is just another year older and doesn't have much in the way of targets to throw to. TE Bo Scaife lead the team with 58 receptions last year and Justin Gage is the team's top returning WR, having just 34 catches a year ago. Free agent pick up Nate Washington comes over from Pittsburgh and will likely be the top target this year, where he'll be joined with first round draft pick Kenny Britt. Britt has good size but most 1st year WRs struggle with the transition to the NFL game, so his output should be expected to amount to much.

The ground game is what it's all about though in Nashville. Last year, rookie RB Chris Johnson exploded onto the scene with 1,258 yards and 9 TDs. He split time with LenDale White, who was the Red Zone specialist, racking up 15 TDs to go along with his 773 yards. The Titans play old school football, running the ball frequently and successfully, usually winning the time of possession battle in the process. They also rely on one of the best defenses in the league to shut down the opposition.

Tennessee trailed only Pittsburgh in scoring defense last year, allowing just 14.6 points per game. Teams averaged under 300 yards per game against the Titans, and other than a drubbing at the hands of the NY Jets in week 12, very few teams had any real success against them. Tennessee may have lost Albert Hanyesworth in the offseason, but they still have several talented players on their defense, including Kyle Vanden Bosch and Jevon Kearse on the defensive line. Keith Bullock leads the linebacking corps, while Michael Griffin and Cortland Finnegan combined for 12 INTs last season in the secondary.

The Titans defense may be just a notch below last year without Haynesworth, but they'll still be one of the best in the NFL. The offense is where my concern lays. It'll surely be tough to stop the running attack of Johnson and White, but the passing game is mediocre at best. I know they managed to win a lot of games last year with that scenario, but I can't help but think it'll cost them a few times this year. Just the same, I expect them to battle Indy for the top spot in the AFC South once again, though I still don't seem them getting far in the playoffs.

Last Season: 13-3

2009 Prediction: 10-6

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