It's time once again for the UFC to grace our presence with another pay per view card. UFC 98 takes place this Saturday night in Las Vegas and features a rather lackluster card to be quite honest. Beyond the co-main events, not much of consequence is happening on this card other than a bunch of fomer Ultimate Fighter cast members doing battle on the undercard. The event is headlined by a Light Heavyweight title fight between champion Rashad Evans and top contender Lyoto Machida. Additionally, former welterweight champions Matt Serra and Matt Hughes will finally do battle after a long standing grudge. I'm going to take a look at those two fights, so let's get started with the Serra/Hughes fight.

Matt Hughes vs. Matt "The Terra" Serra

Matt Hughes has been in the business for a very long time now and is widely recognized as the most dominant welterweight champion in UFC history. The fight against Matt Serra will be his 21st inside the Octagon and all indications are that it will also be his last. Hughes is a lock for the Hall of Fame and with the announcement that 2 more members will be added the weekend of UFC 100, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Hughes is one of them. Hughes' record stands at 42-7 but with 3 losses in his last 4 fights, injury problems, and the fact that he is now 35 years old, retirement surely seemson the horizon. After losing his last bout with Thiago Alves and tearing both his MCL and PCL in the process, Hughes commented that he had one last fight in him, that being this one against Matt Serra.

The list of men Hughes has beaten is literally a who's who of the welterweight division and his losses didn't exactly come to slouches either. Dennis Hallman (2x), BJ Penn, and Georges St. Pierre (2x) are among the very few to have taken victories over Hughes. A 2 time champ who successfully defended his title on 7 different occasions, Hughes would like to walk away from the sport with one last win, particularly over Serra after their ongoing war of words during the past 2 years. The two were coaches on Season 6 of The Ultimate Fighter and constantly exchanged words and generally showed a great deal of dislike for one another. The scheduled fight after the season was supposed to take place in late 2007, but Serra was forced to withdraw due to a severe back injury. St. Pierre stepped in as a replacement and tapped out Hughes to win an interim title. Serra recovered from his injuries and then faced St. Pierre to unify the titles, also losing. Hughes took the fight with Alves and hurt his knee in the process, thus pushing this fight back nearly 17 months until now.

Matt Serra is certainly an interesting story if nothing else. Serra sports a career record of just 9-5, but has a UFC Welterweight Title reign on his resume. Making his debut back at UFC 31 in 2001, Serra lost to Shonie Carter via the now infamous spinning backfist that has graced highlight reels throughout the decade. Going 4-4 in the UFC, Serra disappeared after a loss to Karo Parisyan at UFC 53, but resurfaced as a cast member on The Ultimate Fighter 4: The Comeback. That season, the show was comprised of former UFC fighters who had left the organization for various reasons, with a title shot promised to the winner of each weight class. Serra would go on to win the welterweight division by beating Chris Lytle in the Finale.

In one of the most surprising moments in UFC history, Serra cashed in his title shot at UFC 69 and defeated Georges St. Pierre to take home the belt. Serra would later lose in a rematch however. Since his return to the Octagon, Serra has only had those 3 fights I just mentioned in a nearly 2.5 year time span. A herniated disc forced him out of a fight with Matt Hughes after their stint coaching on The Ultimate Fighters 6th season, but they will finally due battle this weekend. Serra made it well known that he was not a fan of Hughes in the least while they were both on the show, and words have been exchanged ever since. Besides the obvious victory over St. Pierre, Serra's only other significant UFC win came against Yves Edwards at UFC 33. In addition to the St. Pierre and Parisyan losses, Din Thomas and BJ Penn have also taken decision victories from Serra.

Common Opponents

As always, I like to look at any common opponents two fighters have in their past as a way to try and guage how they might fair against one another. In the case of Hughes and Serra, several of those exist. Serra originally fought as a lightweight in the UFC, but since returning has moved up to the 170 lb. weight class. These two have a combined 5 fights against Georges St. Pierre as well as matchups against Chris Lytle and BJ Penn in their past. Serra lost a unanimous decision to BJ Penn back at UFC 39 in 2002 while Hughes also lost his first bout with Penn at UFC 46. That loss, by way of rear naked choke, cost Hughes the end of his first title reign after 5 successful defenses and also ended his 13 fight win streak. Hughes would get his revenge however, defeating BJ Penn via TKO at UFC 63 to retain the title he regained after Penn vacated it by leaving the UFC. Serra defeated Chris Lytle in the finals of TUF 4, winning by a majority decision in what was a very close bout. Lytle's next fight would come against Hughes at UFC 68 where he lost by way of unanimous decision. Hughes had a definitively easier time against Lytle than did Serra.

The fights against GSP perhaps tell the best story, since each fighter has dealt with him multiple times. Hughes first fought him for a vacant welterweight title at UFC 50, ultimately winning by armbar with just 1 second remaining in the first round. St. Pierre held the upper hand through the first round, but made a simple mistake which Hughes was a quick to capitalize on. The two would battle again at UFC 65, this time St. Pierre taking away Hughes' title via TKO in the 2nd round. St. Pierre would turn around and face Serra in his next fight at UFC 69 for his first title defense. Serra earned the shot via his TUF 4 victory and shocked the world by catching St. Pierre with some punches in the first and finishing him via TKO. The win was very surprising as GSP was considered the best in the weight class by far at that point and Serra wasn't expected to give him a challenge. It seemed as though St. Pierre underestimated the opposition and came in unprepared, costing him the belt. When Serra was unable to defend the title vs. Hughes due to injury, GSP filled in and defeated Hughes for an interim title via a submission win at UFC 79. Serra and St. Pierre would then meet again to unify the belts at UFC 83 in St. Pierre's hometown of Montreal. GSP easily put away Serra in the rematch, winning via TKO in the 2nd round.

When it comes to common opponents, Serra sports a record of 2-3, while Hughes went 3-3, however I'd say that Hughes had the more significant and more impressive victories in those matchups.

Predictions

I'd like to think I'm not biased in analyzing this fight, simply because I quite honestly don't care for either fighter in the least. That being said, Hughes is undeniably one of the UFC's all time best and through his lengthy career has really only lost to elite level opposition. Serra on the other hand has had a very mundane career, highlighted only by a title win, which many would call a fluke. They say anybody can win a title, but you're not a champion until you defend it, and Serra was never able to do that. If it weren't for that title win, Serra would likely have been dismissed from the UFC for a second time by now.

In terms of abilities, Serra has the advantage in jiu jitsu as a black belt under Renzo Gracie, and perhaps a small advantage in terms of punching power on the feet. Hughes is a vastly superior wrestler and probably has the better all around striking at this point. Serra likes to throw bombs from in close and try to catch his opponent, while Hughes doesn't swing for the fences, but stays in the face of his opposition, looking for an opportunity to take them to the mat and work the ground and pound that he's become famous for. Hughes' losses have all come by way of a finish, he's never lost a decision. Serra on the other hand has only finished 2 of his UFC fights, winning the rest via decision. This tells me Serra is not an aggressive fighter, and I don't think that strategy will hold up against Hughes.

Hughes wants to go out of the UFC on top of his game, and will look to take Serra to the mat at the first chance and pound away on him. Serra is very good from his back at working for submissions, but I expect Hughes to defend well and not give him much of an opening. I'd be surprised if this fight ended in any manner other than a TKO victory for Hughes. I think they'll take their time feeling each other out in the first, so I say it goes to the 2nd, but Hughes walks away with one last win.

"Sugar" Rashad Evans (UFC Light Heavyweight Champion) vs. Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida

The main event for UFC 98 features the first every title match between two undefeated fighters. Rashad Evans enters this fight at 13-0-1, fresh off a TKO victory over Forrest Griffin to capture the Light Heavyweight Title at UFC 92 in December. Evans was originally expected to fight Quinton "Rampage" Jackson at UFC 100 after Jackson defeated Keith Jardine at UFC 96, however the Frank Mir/Brock Lesnar title fight had to be moved from this card back to UFC 100 due to injuries. Since Jackson had surgery of his own, he was unable to fight at UFC 98 and Lyoto Machida was given the opportunity instead, though Rampage is expected to face the winner in an upcoming show.

Evans has yet to taste defeat as a professional, which includes 9 fights in the UFC, the first of which was a victory for The Ultimate Fighter 2's title in the heavyweight division. Evans promptly moved to his more natural weight class of 205 lbs. and has had great success since. Amongst the wins he has amassed, fighters such as Stephan Bonnar, Michael Bisping, and a shocking knockout of Chuck Liddell are included on the list. The lone blemish on Evans' record comes in the form of a draw against former Light Heavyweight champ Tito Ortiz at UFC 73. A close fight throughout, Ortiz was penalized a point for grabbing the fence multiple times, which ultimately lead to the scorecards resulting in a draw.

Evans was often criticized early in his career for not finishing fights, instead electing to use his wrestling skills to hold down his opponents and earn decision victories. He has changed that opinion in recent fights however as 4 of his last 6 fights ended in KO (3) or TKO (1) victories. Amongst those were a highlight reel head kick KO of Sean Salmon as well as a huge right hand to the jaw of Chuck Liddell, both of which won Knockout of the Night awards for Evans. With this fight, Evans attempts to do what nobody else has been able to as of late, defend the Light Heavyweight title. The previous two champs have each lost in their first defense, as the ultra competitive division continues to shuffle around.

Lyoto Machida has stepped into his own as of late and is finally being recognized as a top contender in the 205 lb. division. "The Dragon" sports an undefeated record of 14-0 including all 6 of his UFC fights. Amongst those he's defeated are Stephan Bonnar, Rich Franklin, BJ Penn, Tito Ortiz, and Thiago Silva. As one of the few fighters who have successfully transitioned the art of Karate into MMA, his style has often come under fire in the past. Machida is known for constantly moving away from opponents in his fights, but many fail to realize he also strikes very successfully when he does move in. In fact, Machida has never even lost a round on a scorecard during his time in the UFC. While he may not be the flashiest fighter out there, his style has certainly proven an effective one.

His early career victories over notable names are interesting ones. He defeated Bonnar via TKO due to a stoppage caused by a cut. Rich Franklin lost via TKO as well, that one due to a head kick followed by punches. The BJ Penn fight is an interesting one, as it was an open weight contest. Machida weighed 215 lbs. for the fight while Penn was just 187 lbs. Machida took the unanimous decision in that matchup. Since coming to the UFC, Lyoto has 4 unanimous decision victories, including a very one sided battle against Tito Ortiz, which sent Ortiz packing from the UFC. Machida was impressive with an anaconda choke over Sokoudjou at UFC 79, but even more impressive in winning Knockout of the Night honors with his KO via punch of Thiago Alves with one second left in the first round at UFC 94.

Common Opponents

Surprisingly, Evans and Machida already have 3 common opponents in their relatively young careers. Machida fought Stephan Bonnar in Brazil back in 2003, winning due to stoppage caused by a cut as I mentioned earlier, while Evans battled Bonnar at UFC Fight Night 5 in 2006, winning by way of majority decision. In April, 2006, Evans was victorious over Sam Hoger via split decision in his 2nd UFC fight. Machida faced Hoger in his Octagon debut at UFC 67 in February of '07. The most recent opponent the two have in common is also the most high profile name of the bunch. Evans battled Tito Ortiz to a draw as I mentioned above at UFC 73 in July of 2007, while Machida easily outpointed Ortiz en route to a unanimous decision in Ortiz' last UFC fight at UFC 84 in May of '08.

Machida's victories over similar competition were much more decisive than those of Rashad Evans, but this is one of those cases where it's hard to make a case that it matters heading into their fight. Evans has developed a great deal since most of those fights took place, earning his place as one of the UFC's elite and as a champion. While Machida has also improved, he was probably at a higher level of ability at the time of his fights to begin with.

Predictions

I've been thinking about this fight all week and I've really struggled to come to a conclusion thus far. Both have been criticized heavily in the past for not having exciting fights and being content with picking up decision victories. However, both have also begun to prove they can finish fights as of late, Evans in particular with several dominant knockouts in recent fights. Both men excel at striking, wich Machida being very tactical and picking his opposition apart with kicks and punches. Evans tends to just let his hands go, throwing punches with a nice flow and possessing deceptive power.

Evans is a wrestler by nature and has the ability to dictate where the fight goes because of that, often defaulting back to his wrestling skills if nothing else is working for him. Machida has some background in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu as he trains with the Black House camp in Rio, alongside Anderson Silva and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. Both fighters like to counter strike and capitalize on the mistakes of their opponents, which means we could be in for a very boring fight. I expect a lot of cautious exchanges of striking, which over the course of a 5 round title fight will likely seem pretty dull. I'm going with a unanimous decision victory for Machida, with a lot of boos from those in attendance along the way. Hopefully, their new found knockout power will prove me wrong though and we'll see one of them finish off the other.

Full Fight Card:

Main Card Fights:
-Rashad Evans (16-0-1) vs. Lyoto Machida (14-0)
-Matt Hughes (42-7) vs. Matt Serra (11-5)
-Dan Miller (11-1) vs. Chael Sonnen (21-10-1)
-Sean Sherk (33-3-1) vs. Frankie Edgar (9-1)
-Drew McFedries (7-5) vs. Xavier Foupa-Pokam (20-10)

Under Card Fights:
-Brock Larson (25-2) vs. Chris Wilson (14-5)
-Yoshiyuki Yoshida (10-3) vs. Brandon Wolff (7-3)
-Tim Hague (9-1) vs. Patrick Barry (4-0)
-Phillipe Nover (7-1) vs. Kyle Bradley (13-6)
-Andre Gusmao (5-1) vs. Krzysztof Soszynski (17-8-1)
-George Roop (10-5) vs. David Kaplan (3-3)